Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning Project By Predrag Mikša EKC - Electricity Coordinating Center Istanbul, March 2011

Black SeaRegional Transmission Planning ProjectBy Predrag MikšaEKC - Electricity Coordinating Center

Istanbul, March 2011

Black Sea Transmission Project

History of BSTP

BSTP Established in 2004 with signing of the Sofia Memorandum of Understanding (MOU)

Members reaffirmed commitment in 2007/2008 with signing of Phase II MOU

Phase I concluded in 2007

Phase II was concluded in February 2010


BSTP Project Goals

Promote regional transmission planning among Black Sea TSO’s

Harmonize transmission planning principles and methodologies

Identify priority investments in national transmission systems & interconnections between countries


BSTP Project Objectives

Create sustainable international expert transmission planning Working Group (WG)

Support common planning software platform (PSS/E)

Analyze the regional system to identify bottlenecks (congestion)

Identify potential transmission investments needed to enhance trade

Promote analytical results to policy & regulatory authorities


BSTP Phase I & II Results

Phase I and II of the BSTP Developed and Refined Load Flow and Dynamic Regional Transmission System Models for 2015 and 2020

Identified Net Transfer Capacities Based on Technical Limitations of the Network

Findings Confirmed the Network is Generally Robust Stability Issues in the Caucasus Region Lack of Connections (Synchronous or

Asynchronous) Limits Transfer Both Within the Region and with Neighboring Region


TASK#1 Regional model – modeled systems

Transmission networks of all power systems in the region

Russia Romania Georgia

Ukraine Bulgaria Armenia

Moldova Turkey Equivalent of western and south-eastern UCTE grid (ENTSO-E)

Modeled

Equivalented

RUS

GEO

AZB

BUL

BLR

EST

GRE

HUN

LAT

LIT

MKD

POL

ROM

SVK

TUR

UKR

SCG Black Sea

MLD

ARM


TASK#1 Regional model - characteristics

High voltage network-transmission network750kV,500kV,400kV,330kV,220kV,150kV,110

kV networkGenerator units at their nominal voltage levelStep-up transformers for main generation

capacities All new substations and lines that are

expected to be operational till 2020 (according to the long term development plans)

Development of Regional model Guidelines


TASK #1 Regimes to model/update

Load flow Model update/upgrade Regimes to model

Present situation 2010 Winter peak, 2010 Summer off-peak 2010 Summer peak

Realistic plans 2015 2015 Winter peak 2015 Summer peak 2015 Summer off-peak

Realistic plans 2020 2020 Winter peak 2020 Summer peak 2020 Summer off-peak


TASK #1 Regimes to model/update

Load/Demand modeling Proposal medium load/demand forecasts

Renewables Identifying (put them in adequate zone by type) Rough estimation about connection Necessary network reinforcements to support

renewables Network reinforcements modeling

Realistic plans Plans vs realization (past analyses) Other projects


8822 7604

205 1000

1306

19

1235

61

2823 4015

Black Sea Region - total

2935 1371 44 1520

3243130555

796 1000

5430654622

784

-1100

1871516904

724 1050

10271 9417

220 545

1175 1151 23 0

1963 1937 26 0

TASK#2 Regional data collection demand/generation

Load/Demand data High demand scenario Medium demand scenario Low demand scenario

Generation expansion plans Realistic scenario Type of new power plants, and

fuel used Renewables

Level of engagement Level of development

Integration of data to Regional report

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

SCENARIU MEDIU SCENARIU MAXIM SCENARIU MINIM


TASK#3 – Renewables data collection

Renewables Generation expansion plans Wind Small hydro Other Estimated connection to grid Market approach (feed in tariff

and price,…) Rules of engagement

Each country to prepare country report, Model integrator to prepare regional overview and regional report


TASK#4 – OPF data collection

Questionnaire is developed to collect generation data Generation data

Type of power plant (thermal, hydro, nuclear etc…

Type of fuel used (gas, coal – lignite, brown coal, nuclear fuel imported etc…)

Fixed running costs Variable running costs Rules of engagement

Two parts Obligatory

Type of power plant (hydro, gas fired, coal…) Fuel used and pricing and Fuel energy (caloric value

of fuel) Installed capacity (max, min production level) …

Non obligatory (dependable on model building approach)

Other economical data (question for availability…) OPF training


TASK#5 – OPF model construction

PSSE OPF is tool used to find an optimum operating position considering the cost of competing objectives such as minimizing: Fuel Costs Power Slack Generation Transmission System Technical Losses Cross Boarder (Interface) Flows Reactive Generation Reserves Required

Generation data Type of power plant (thermal, hydro, nuclear

etc… Type of fuel used (gas, coal – lignite, brown

coal, nuclear fuel imported etc…) Fixed running costs Variable running costs Rules of engagement Generic generation cost curves (in first step, to be

adjusted by project participants according to real data)

Network data Network grid code rules and recommendations Technical constraints


TASK#5 – OPF model construction

Generic Cost Curve will be developed by USEA and EKC (based on questionnaire collected data)

To be reviewed, revised and approved by TSO’s (depending on the approach they chose)

TSOs will enter themselves network OPF data (thermal limits, voltage limitations…)

USEA and EKC will integrate these in regional model to be used for regional and national OPF studies


Task#6 – Regional model analyses

Load flow analyses loading of the network feasibility of base case exchanges voltage profile analyses contingency analyses (n-1 security check)

Border capacity overview Evaluation of network transfer capabilities Evaluation of Renewables integration

High renewables engagement scenario Critical loss of wind power (selection of

scenarios) Identify the existing potential for electric

power trade in the region Verify values through dynamic analyses

Critical regimes (exchange) Select outage to investigate Monitor machines

Russia

Georgia

Azerbajan

Albania

BIH

Bulgaria

Belarus

Croatia

Czech republic

Greece

Italy

Hungary

Makedonia

Poland

Romania

Slovakia

Turkey

Ukraine

SRB

Iraq

Iran

Black Sea

Armenia

10

00 3

00

0

500

1850

750 75

0

1600850

200200

1350

200 14

00

75

0 75

0

12

00 1

50

0

60

0 40

0

1100

3000 30

00


Russia

Georgia

Azerbajan

Albania

Austria

BIH

Bulgaria

Belarus

Croatia

Czech republic

Germany

Greece

Italy

Hungary

Makedonia

Poland

Romania

Slovakia

Slovenia

Turkey

Ukraine

SRB

Iraq

Iran

Black Sea

Armenia

3400

13001450

1500

18001100

750 75

0

TASK#7 – Market analyses

Generation surplus projections in Black Sea region and electricity market scenarios in the period 2010 - 2020 analyses of present and future

generation expansion plans and electricity prices (according to production costs and fuel costs)

evaluation of transfer capacities (ENTSO-E methodology)

Identifying market realistic scenarios (using PSS/E OPF)

Evaluation of network adequacy


Thank You!Thank You!

Documents

Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning Project By Predrag Mikša EKC - Electricity Coordinating Center Istanbul, March 2011