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Baseline emission projections
and scope for further reductions
in Europe up to 2020
Results from the CAFE analysis
M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes,
Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, W. Winiwarter, W. Schöpp
Approach for baseline emission projections
• Match RAINS estimates with nationally reported emission inventories for 2000
• Use projections on emission generating activities (energy, transport, agriculture) – EU-wide scenarios and national projections
• Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020– Taking account of international and national legislation
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RAINS emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000
SO2
VOC
NOx
NH3
National inventory RAINS estimate
PM10
RAINS PM emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000
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MS PM2.5
National inventory RAINS estimate
Economic drivers for emission projections
Projections of economic activitiesused for the CAFE baseline scenarios
Energy
• Revised PRIMES projection for all 25 EU countries, with climate measures (carbon price 12-20 €/t CO2)
– Including national comments received after April
• DG-TREN Energy Outlook to 2030 (PRIMES calculations for all 25 EU countries, without further climate measures)
• National projections (10 countries) - with climate measures?
Agriculture
• DG-AGRI projection for all 25 EU countries, pre-CAP reform
• National projections (10 countries)
Economic driversassumed for the PRIMES energy projections
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use Passenger kmFreight ton-km Cattle lifestock Sea transport
Emission projections
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100%
125%
150%
175%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use
Land-based emissions CAFE “With climate measures” baseline, EU-25
0%
25%
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125%
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175%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use CO2
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175%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx VOC
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx VOC PM2.5
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175%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
GDP Primary energy use CO2SO2 NOx VOCNH3 PM2.5
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Range of SO2 emission projections[kt]
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7000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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2000
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7000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
----- EU-15 ----- New Member States ---- Sea regions
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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12000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Range of NOx emission projections[kt]
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2000
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6000
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12000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
----- EU-15 ----- New Member States ---- Sea regions
The scope for further emission reductions through technical measures
Long-term trends of EU-25 emissions “With climate measures” projection, relative to year 2000 [= 100%]
0%
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5
Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFR) General assumptions
• Full application of measures included in RAINS database (following IPPC BREF notes)
• No premature scrapping and no retrofitting beyond current legislation
• Maximum reductions also applied in non-EU countries and sea regions
Scope for further technical emission reductions CAFE “with climate measures” baseline, EU-25
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SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5
2000 CLE-2020 MTFR-2020
Costs of current legislation and MTFR2020
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Current legislation MTFR
Billion Euros/year
Road sources SO2 NOx NH3 VOC PM
Scope for further non-technical emission reductions“Illustrative climate” vs. “with climate measures” scenario, EU-25
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SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5
2000CLE-2020 "with climate measures"CLE 2020 "Illustrative climate"MTFR-2020 "with climate measures"MTFR 2020 "Illustrative climate"
Projected PM emissions in Europe2000-2020
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2000 CLE2020
MTFR2020
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MTFR2020
2000 CLE2020
MTFR2020
kilotons/year
PM2.5 PM coarse
EU-15 EU-10 Non-EU
Impact assessment
• All calculations for 2020
• All impact assessments for 1997 meteorology
RAINS impact assessmentSeven endpoints
• Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM
• Premature deaths attributable to ozone
• Vegetation damage from ozone (AOT40)
• Excess of critical loads for acidification for forest soils
• Excess of critical loads for acidification for semi-natural ecosystems
• Excess of critical loads for acidification for lakes
• Excess of critical loads for eutrophication
More endpoints evaluated in CAFE Cost-Benefit Analysis
Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]
2000 2020 2020
Current legislation MTFR
Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Calculations for 1997 meteorology Provisional estimates with generic assumption on urban increment of PM
Premature deaths attributable to ozone[cases per year]
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2000 CLE 2020 MFR 2020
Provisional estimates based on grid average ozone concentrations, 1997 meteorology
Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrationsAOT40 [ppm.hours]
Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Calculations for 1997 meteorology
2000 2020 2020
Current legislation MTFR
Acid deposition to forests
Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Calculation for 1997 meteorology
2000 2020 2020
Current legislation MTFR
Acid deposition to forests% of forest area with acid deposition above CL
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2000 CLE MFR
Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas
Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads using ecosystem-specific deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology
2000 2020 2020
Current legislation MTFR
Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas [% of ecosystems area]
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France Germany Ireland Netherlands UK Total
2000 CLE 2020 MFR 2020
Acid deposition to freshwater bodies
Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition.
Calculation for 1997 meteorology
2000 2020 2020
Current legislation MTFR
Acid deposition to freshwater bodies Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above CL
0
2
4
6
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Finland Sweden UK
2000 CLE MFR
Excess of critical loads for eutrophication
Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads using grid-average deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology
2000 2020 2020
Current legislation MTFR
Excess of critical loads for eutrophication Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above CL
0
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2020 CEL 2020 MFR 2020
Conclusions
• Emissions in the EU-25 will continue to decline in the future with progressing implementation of current legislation (except ammonia).
• However, air quality problems will remain.
• There is scope for further emission reductions:
– Starting from the “with climate measures” PRIMES projection, relatively little AQ improvements from more aggressive climate policies
– Significant scope from further technical measures beyond current legislation
• Different regions in Europe experience different environmental problems.
• No consultations with non-EU countries up to now.
