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Recent methodological changes in the GAINS model
M. Amann, W. Asman, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, F. Wagner
Meeting of the Task Force on Integrated Assessment ModellingPrague, May 2-4, 2007
Recent methodological changes
• Update to the City-delta methodology
• RAINS cost curve-based optimization replaced by GAINS measured-based optimization
• 5-years meteorological conditions
• EC4MACS work plan
Changes since December 2006
• New population and city-domain data (“compact” city shapes including ~70% of population)
• Target metric: population-weighted PM2.5 concentration for health impact assessment
• Refined results from the three urban models
• Revised functional relationship
• Multi-year meteorology
• Modified assumptions on urban emissions
Compact urban shapes for which the urban increments are computed
Paris London Lisbon
Krakow Milan Berlin
Urban increments computed by the three models for the 5*5 km center grid cell and population-weighted
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Berlin Krakow Lisbon London Milan Paris Prague
Inc
rem
ent
(mic
rog
ram
/m3
)
5 km * 5 km Population-weighted
Urban increments computed by Chimere, CAMx, RCG, compared with the City-delta regression
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Berlin Krakow Lisbon London Milan Paris Prague
mic
rog
ram
/m3
Chimere CAMx RCG City-delta
Hypothesis of the City-delta functional relationship
Δc … concentration increment computed with the 3 models
α. β … regression coefficients
D … city diameter
U … wind speed
Δq … change in emission fluxes
d … number of winter days with low wind speed
365
dQ
U
DQ
U
Dc
Urban per-capita emissions by SNAP sector
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Wien
Sofia
Brno
Helsink
iLil
le
Toulon
Valenc
ienne
s
Mon
tpell
ier
Avigno
n
Mue
nche
n
Nuern
berg
Wup
perta
l
Bielef
eld
Chem
nitz
Kasse
l
Halle
Dortm
und
Mila
no
Genov
a
Venez
ia
Amste
rdam
Leide
n
Krako
w
Bydgo
szcz
Porto
Consta
nta
Ljublj
ana
Zarag
oza
Cordo
ba
Stock
holm
Genev
e
Man
ches
ter
Nottin
gham
Portsm
outh
Stoke
-on-
Trent
South
ampt
on
Kingsto
n up
on H
ull
kg P
M2.
5/p
ers
on
/yr
SNAP 2 (Domestic) SNAP 3 (Idustry) Snap 7 (Traffic) SNAP 8 (Other mobile sources)
Emission densities (red) and computed urban increments (blue)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Wie
n
Sof
ia
Brn
o
Hel
sink
i
Lille
Tou
lon
Val
enci
enne
s
Mon
tpel
lier
Avi
gnon
Mue
nche
n
Nue
rnbe
rg
Wup
pert
al
Bie
lefe
ld
Che
mni
tz
Kas
sel
Hal
le
Dor
tmun
d
Mila
no
Gen
ova
Ven
ezia
Am
ster
dam
Leid
en
Kra
kow
Byd
gosz
cz
Por
to
Con
stan
ta
Ljub
ljana
Zar
agoz
a
Cor
doba
Sto
ckho
lm
Gen
eve
Man
ches
ter
Not
tingh
am
Por
tsm
outh
Sto
ke-o
n-T
rent
Sou
tham
pton
Kin
gsto
n up
on H
ull
Urban increment (microgram PM2.5/m3) Emission density (t/km2)
Contribution of long-range transport (blue) and local primary PM emissions (red) to urban PM2.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Wie
n
Linz
Bru
xelle
s
Gen
t
Sof
ia
Var
na
Pra
ha
Ost
rava
Arh
us
Hel
sink
i
Tur
ku
Mar
seill
e
Lille
Tou
lous
e
Nan
tes
Lens
Gre
nobl
e
Val
enci
enne
s
Met
z
Sai
nt-E
tienn
e
Ren
nes
Bet
hune
Avi
gnon
Dijo
n
Ang
ers
Bre
st
mic
rogr
am P
M2.
5/m
3
Assumed mineral and sea salt Regional backgroundUrban increment AIRBASE monitoring data for urban background 2004
AT BE Bulgaria FI France
Contribution of long-range transport (blue) and local primary PM emissions (red) to urban PM2.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Mila
no
Rom
a
Nap
oli
Tor
ino
Pal
erm
o
Gen
ova
Bol
ogna
Fire
nze
Bar
i
Cat
ania
Ven
ezia
Ver
ona
Mes
sina
Pad
ova
Trie
ste
Rig
a
Viln
ius
Kau
nas
Am
ster
dam
Rot
terd
am
Gra
venh
age
Utr
echt
Ein
dhov
en
Leid
en
Dor
drec
ht
Tilb
urg
Hee
rlen
Gro
ning
en
Osl
o
Ber
gen
Kat
owic
e
War
szaw
a
Lodz
Kra
kow
Wro
claw
Poz
nan
Gda
nsk
Szc
zeci
n
Byd
gosz
cz
Lubl
in
Bia
lyst
ok
Gdy
nia
Cze
stoc
how
a
Rad
om
Kie
lce
Tor
un
Lisb
oa
Por
to
mic
rog
ram
PM
2.5
/m3
Assumed mineral and sea salt Regional backgroundUrban increment AIRBASE monitoring data for urban background 2004
Italy Netherlands NO Poland PT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Ess
en
Stu
ttgar
t
Mue
nche
n
Koe
ln
Due
ssel
dorf
Han
nove
r
Bon
n
Wup
pert
al
Dre
sden
Kar
lsru
he
Leip
zig
Moe
nche
ngla
dbac
h
Che
mni
tz
Reu
tling
en
Bra
unsc
hwei
g
Kie
l
Osn
abru
eck
Hal
le
Mue
nste
r
Mag
debu
rg
Zw
icka
u
Wue
rzbu
rg
Dor
tmun
d
The
ssal
onik
i
Deb
rece
n
mic
rog
ram
PM
2.5
/m3
Assumed mineral and sea salt Regional backgroundUrban increment AIRBASE monitoring data for urban background 2004
Contribution of long-range transport (blue) and local primary PM emissions (red) to urban PM2.5
Germany GR HU
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Lond
on
Birm
ingh
am
Man
ches
ter
Leed
s
Gla
sgow
New
cast
le-u
pon-
Tyn
e
Live
rpoo
l
Not
tingh
am
She
ffiel
d
Bris
tol
Brig
hton
Edi
nbur
gh
Por
tsm
outh
Leic
este
r
Bou
rnem
outh
Rea
ding
Mid
dles
brou
gh
Sto
ke-o
n-T
rent
Bel
fast
Cov
entr
y
Car
diff
Birk
enhe
ad
Sou
tham
pton
Sw
anse
a
Sou
then
d-on
-Sea
Pre
ston
Bla
ckpo
ol
Ald
ersh
ot
Der
by
Luto
n
Gill
ingh
am
Bar
nsle
y
Kin
gsto
n up
on H
ull
Ply
mou
th
mic
rog
ram
PM
2.5
/m3
Assumed mineral and sea salt Regional backgroundUrban increment AIRBASE monitoring data for urban background 2004
Contribution of long-range transport (blue) and local primary PM emissions (red) to urban PM2.5
United Kingdom
Sectoral contributions to background concentrations of primary PM2.5 components from urban sources
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Wie
n
Linz
Bru
xelle
s
Gen
t
Sof
ia
Var
na
Pra
ha
Ost
rava
Arh
us
Hel
sink
i
Tur
ku
Mar
seill
e
Lille
Tou
lous
e
Nan
tes
Lens
Gre
nobl
e
Val
enci
enne
s
Met
z
Sai
nt-E
tienn
e
Ren
nes
Bet
hune
Avi
gnon
Dijo
n
Ang
ers
Bre
st
mic
rog
ram
PM
2.5
/m3
Domestic (SNAP 2) Industry (SNAP3) Traffic (SNAP7) Non-road mobile (SNAP 8)
AT BE Bulgaria FI France
Sectoral contributions to background concentrations of primary PM2.5 components from urban sources
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Lond
on
Birm
ingh
am
Man
ches
ter
Leed
s
Gla
sgow
New
cast
le-u
pon-
Tyn
e
Live
rpoo
l
Not
tingh
am
She
ffiel
d
Bris
tol
Brig
hton
Edi
nbur
gh
Por
tsm
outh
Leic
este
r
Bou
rnem
outh
Rea
ding
Mid
dles
brou
gh
Sto
ke-o
n-T
rent
Bel
fast
Cov
entr
y
Car
diff
Birk
enhe
ad
Sou
tham
pton
Sw
anse
a
Sou
then
d-on
-Sea
Pre
ston
Bla
ckpo
ol
Ald
ersh
ot
Der
by
Luto
n
Gill
ingh
am
Bar
nsle
y
Kin
gsto
n up
on H
ull
Ply
mou
th
mic
rog
ram
PM
2.5
/m3
Domestic (SNAP 2) Industry (SNAP3) Traffic (SNAP7) Non-road mobile (SNAP 8)
United Kingdom
Summary
• Substantial revisions of methodology and input data
• Health impact assessment based on population-weighted increments – conservative assumption?
• Largest uncertainties associated with quality of urban emission estimates. Large discrepancies cannot be readily explained
• More plausible on emissions assumptions improve estimates
• Validation hampered by lack of quality-controlled monitoring data
• Sensitivity analysis explored implications on optimization results
Comparison of cost curvesExamples for Germany and Greece
Germany, SO2, NEC_NAT,2020
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
290 340 390 440
Remaining Emissions kt/yr
To
tal
cost
ME
ur/
yr
costs-RAINS
costs-GAINS
Germany, NOx, NEC_NAT,2020
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
660 710 760 810 860 910
Remaining Emissions kt/yr
To
tal
cost
ME
ur/
yr
costs-RAINS
costs-GAINS
Germany, PM2.5, NEC_NAT,2020
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
75 80 85 90 95 100
Remaining Emissions kt/yr
To
tal
cost
ME
ur/
yr
costs-RAINS
costs-GAINS
Greece, SO2, NEC_NAT,2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
40 50 60 70 80 90
Remaining Emissions kt/yr
To
tal
cost
ME
ur/
yr
costs-RAINS
costs-GAINS
Greece, NOx, NEC_NAT,2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210
Remaining Emissions kt/yr
To
tal
cost
ME
ur/
yr
costs-RAINS
costs-GAINS
Greece, PM2.5, NEC_NAT,2020
0
50
100
150
200
250
16 21 26 31
Remaining Emissions kt/yr
To
tal
cost
ME
ur/
yr
costs-RAINS
costs-GAINS
Multi-year meteorology
• Atmospheric dispersion based on meteorological conditions of 1996, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2003
• Sensitivity analysis with 2003
Loss in statistical life expectancy computed with different meteorological conditions (for 2000)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Au
stria
Be
lgiu
m
Bu
lgar
ia
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
De
nma
rk
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
Gre
ece
Hu
nga
ry
Ire
land
Ital
y
La
tvia
Lith
uan
ia
Lu
xem
bou
rg
Ma
lta
Ne
ther
land
s
Po
land
Po
rtug
al
Ro
man
ia
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
Sp
ain
Sw
ede
n
UK
EU
-27
EU
-25
Cro
atia
No
rwa
y
Sw
itzer
land
Mo
nth
s
5-yrs mean 2003 1997
Estimates of mortality from ozone for year 2000 emissions for different meteorological conditions
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
Au
stria
Be
lgiu
m
Bu
lgar
ia
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
De
nma
rk
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
Gre
ece
Hu
nga
ry
Ire
land
Ital
y
La
tvia
Lith
uan
ia
Lu
xem
bou
rg
Ma
lta
Ne
ther
land
s
Po
land
Po
rtug
al
Ro
man
ia
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
Sp
ain
Sw
ede
n
UK
EU
-27
Cro
atia
Tu
rkey
No
rwa
y
Sw
itzer
land
Mo
rta
lity
cas
es in
rel
atio
n t
o 5
-yrs
mea
n
5-yrs mean 2003 1997
Estimates of unprotected forest area for year 2000 emissions for different meteorological conditions
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%A
ust
ria
Be
lgiu
m
Bu
lgar
ia
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
De
nma
rk
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
Gre
ece
Hu
nga
ry
Ire
land
Italy
Latv
ia
Lith
uan
ia
Luxe
mbo
urg
Ma
lta
Ne
ther
land
s
Po
land
Po
rtug
al
Ro
man
ia
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
Sp
ain
Sw
ede
n
UK
EU
-27
EU
-25
Cro
atia
Tu
rkey
No
rwa
y
Sw
itzer
land
km2
of
eco
sys
tem
s w
ith
aci
d d
epo
siti
on
ab
ov
e c
riti
ca
l lo
ad
s in
re
lati
on
to
19
97
5-yrs mean 2003 1997
Estimates of ecosystem area with excess nitrogen deposition for year 2000 emissions for different meteorological conditions
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
Au
stria
Be
lgiu
m
Bu
lgar
ia
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
De
nma
rk
Est
onia
Fin
land
Fra
nce
Ge
rma
ny
Gre
ece
Hu
nga
ry
Ire
land
Italy
Latv
ia
Lith
uan
ia
Luxe
mbo
urg
Ma
lta
Ne
ther
land
s
Po
land
Po
rtug
al
Ro
man
ia
Slo
vaki
a
Slo
ven
ia
Sp
ain
Sw
ede
n
UK
EU
-27
Cro
atia
Tu
rkey
No
rwa
y
Sw
itzer
land
km2
of
eco
sys
tem
s w
ith
nit
rog
en
dep
os
itio
n a
bo
ve c
riti
cal
lo
ad
s in
re
lati
on
to
19
97
5-yrs mean 2003 1997
Summary
• For EU-27, PM and ozone impacts from 5-yrs meteorology very similar to 1997. Acidification ~10% higher, eutrophication ~5% higher
• But different trends in different regions across Europe
• Implications on meaures
• 2003 produces higher health impacts for PM and ozone
EC4MACS
European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies
Overview of the 5 years work plan
The EC4MACS model system
GAINSPOLES PRIMES
CAPRI
TM5 EMEP
CCE-IMPACTS
TREMOVE
BENEFITS
Global/hemisphericboundary conditions
European policy drivers
Energy
Transport
Atmosphere
Agriculture
Ecosystems
GEM-E3
Cost-effectiveness
Impacts
FASOM