BANCOSTA Weekly Market Report · comment banchero costa market report - week 1/2019 2 In the first 11 months of 2018, total coal and lignite imports increased a strong 8.9 percent

banchero costa

Weekly Market Report

Week 1/2019 (31 December – 4 January)

Comment: Chinese coal imports

index

comment page 2

chartering

dry cargo “ 3

tankers “ 6

containers “ 8

sale & purchase

newbuildings / finance “ 9

secondhand / demolition “ 10

commodities

news “ 11

prices “ 13

banchero costa network chartering - sale&purchase - ship finance - insurance - agency - research - and more...

Follow us on: linkedin.com/company/banchero-costa

twitter.com/banchero_costa

https://twitter.com/banchero_costa

http://www.linkedin.com/company/banchero-costa

comment banchero costa

2 market report - week 1/2019

In the first 11 months of 2018, total coal and lignite imports increased a strong 8.9 percent to 270.5 mln tonnes. Of this, imports of steam coal and lignite increased by 13.5 percent year-on-year to 209.4 mln tonnes, while coking coal imports decreased by 4.2 percent to 61.1 mln tonnes.

However, it is uncertain if 2018 full year imports will exceed the 2017 volume of 271.1 million tonnes, following the introduction of coal import restrictions in November and signals by the government to keep the year’s imports below 2017 levels.

While import restrictions have since started to relax with the start of the new year – with waiting times for customs declarations to be completed at around 15 days now, compared to 30-40 days when restrictions were in force – China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is said to be considering monthly coal import controls in 2019. The pursuit of monthly import controls instead of an annual quota is a sign that upside in coal import volumes may be more limited going forward, as the government seeks to increase domestic production while limiting falls in price. In 2019, domestic coal production is expected to increase by around 100 million tonnes.

Indonesia and Australia dominate coal exports to China, accounting for 45 percent and 29 percent respectively of China’s import volume in the first 11 months of 2018.

Over Jan-Nov 2018, total coal imports from Indonesia surged 11.7 percent year-on-year to 121.8 million tonnes, mostly from an increase in lignite shipments. While Indonesia supplies mainly lignite which are of a low calorific value, they tend to be low in sulphur and trade at a large discount to higher-quality thermal coal from Australia. They are thus useful for blending with higher-sulphur domestic supplies and imports.

On the other hand, Australian shipments fell 2.1 percent to 78.4 million tonnes, largely as coking coal shipments decreased with easing Chinese import volumes. Chinese coking coal imports have been falling this year, even as steel production increased 9.4 percent year-on-year over the same period to 851.4 million tonnes, likely due to Chinese mills requiring less coking coal as they increased scrap usage in steel making, some inventory run down due to high coking coal prices in 1Q 2018, and renewed coal import restrictions in November.

Chinese coal imports

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

mill

ion

to

nn

es

China - Monthly Coal & Lignite Imports - Seasonality(source: customs data ; imports in million tonnes)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

103.2

43.7

16.2

2.87.1

23.2

108.3

49.1

23.5

7.7 5.5 7.1

121.6

51.1

22.0

8.24.2 2.3

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Indonesia Australia Russia Mongolia Philippines Others

mill

ion

to

nn

es

China - Steam Coal + Lignite Imports by Source(source: customs data ; in million tonnes)

2016 (1-11) 2017 (1-11) 2018 (1-11)

26.8

23.6

2.6

5.2

0.01.1

31.0

26.3

4.6 4.32.8

1.0

27.3

25.1

4.2

2.1 2.00.3

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Australia Mongolia Russia Canada U.S. Others

mill

ion

to

nn

es

China - Coking Coal Imports by Source(source: customs data ; in million tonnes)

2016 (1-11) 2017 (1-11) 2018 (1-11)

Indonesia45%

Australia29%

Mongolia12%

Russia10%

Philippines2%

Canada1%

U.S.1%

Others0%

China - Sources of Coal & Lignite Imports in Jan-Nov 2018(source: customs data ; includes coking coal, steam coal, and lignite; % of import volume)

Unit 04-Jan 28-Dec W-o-W Y-o-Y

BPI TC Avg. usd/day 10,677 11,386 -6.2% -2.4%

BPI 82 TC Avg. usd/day 11,817 12,484 -5.3% -1.1%

P1 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 10,510 11,945 -12.0% -9.7%

P2 Skaw-Gib Trip East usd/day 18,448 19,264 -4.2% +3.0%

P3 Pacific r/v usd/day 9,777 10,308 -5.2% +1.5%

1 Yr TC Period Panamax usd/day 11,000 11,500 -4.3% +0.0%

1 Yr TC Period Kamsarmax usd/day 12,500 13,000 -3.8% +0.0%


BCI TC Avg. usd/day 15,341 14,797 +3.7% -20.5%

C8 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 16,550 16,360 +1.2% -37.6%

C14 China-Brazil r/v usd/day 14,868 13,939 +6.7% -6.0%

C10 Pacific r/v usd/day 14,050 13,521 +3.9% -3.1%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 16,250 16,000 +1.6% -1.5%

dry cargo chartering banchero costa

As expected the Capesize market activity was definitely quiet due to Christmas and New Year’s holidays before recovering last week. The two standard routes Tubarao/Qingdao and West Australia/Qingdao remained pretty stable. The Tubarao/Qingdao was fixed in the $16/mt range with higher numbers close to $17/mt rumored at the end of the week. The West Australia/Qingdao was a bit more active with rates agreed in the mid $6’s/mt basis mid/end January dates and a high number of fixtures recorded at the end of the week. In the Atlantic basin fronthaul rates remained in the high $20,000’s/d.

Capesize Market

Rates

Panamax Market

Rates

The market remained lousy in all areas predominantly due to the Christmas holidays. In North Atlantic the list of spot vessels kept on growing and Owners tried to fix short interCont businesses to employ their vessels for this period, rates consequently went down even below the $10,000/day mark. Same situation was recorded in the South American market where a lack of fresh enquires pushed rates under pressure. The Pacific market showed instead a good number of fresh cargoes either from Nopac or Indonesia but, due to the lousy South American market that prevented most of Owners to bring their ships South, the high offer of tonnage in the area kept the demand low. No fresh fixtures were recorded on period.

3

0

7,000

14,000

21,000

28,000

35,000

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

BCI TC and Capesize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BCI TC

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

BPI TC and Panamax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BPI TC

market report - week 1/2019

dry cargo chartering banchero costa

Handysize rates were taken over by panic during the last two weeks with 35/38k dwt fixing in the low teens for TCTs to Cont/Med or even redely WC Americas. The 30/34k dwt were suffering even more. The Supramax market was softening as well but not collapsing as the Handysize one. Ultramax were fixing in the $28,000’s/d for TCT East with petcoke and Supramaxes in the high teens for TA voyages, thus $2,000/3,000/d less than mid-December. The tonnage list became longer and the market will further texted next week. Ttahe ECSAm market had a massive drop during the Holidays period. Rates levels for 38k dwt on TransAtlantic trip set the bar at 15,500/d to Cont/Med while trips FEast were paying in the high teens, around $18,000/18,500/d. Coastal trips in Brazil, even if supposed to pay $13,000/d, slowed down as some Supramax were heard fixed at $12,500/d. Supramaxes (tess 58 type) for trip to ContMed stepped down to the $16,500/d level while Ultramaxes were seeing numbers in the $16,500/17,000/d for same route. For the trip to Spore/Japan range Supramaxes were settling in the mid/high $13,000’s/d + $350,000/370,000 bb while the Ultramaxes were seeing $14,000/d + $400,000 bb.

Supramax & Handysize Market

Ind

ia

S A

fric

a

Cont market slightly softened especially on the Handysize vessels: one modern 33k dwt fixed about 30,000 mts of coal from the Baltic to Praia Mole at $19.75/mt showing an equivalent of around $7,000/d. Even if no fixtures were recorded for Supramax and Ultramax, levels eased of around $1,000/d compared to the previous week both for Cont/Med and Cont/FEast routes. The New Year started with a negative trend in Med. A too high number of ships compared to an insufficient number of cargoes helped rates to fall on both Handysize and Supra/Ultramax markets. On smaller ships, rates settled at $9,000/d for trips within the Med and just above $10,000/d for trip back to US via Black Sea, while on the Supramax side Owners were seen still asking in the $11,000/12,000/d for trips to UKC and Charterers strongly disagreeing. The general feeling was that no sudden strong rise in the levels is expected, although the New Year and the ice situation could help to give a bit of unpredictability to the market.

In the final week of 2018, a 56k dwt was fixed in the high $13,000/d bss Fujairah for trip via UAE to Chittagong. For a Red Sea parcel to ECI a 58k dwt was heard to be fixed bss dop WCI at $13,000/d bss direct sailing. In the first week of 2019, for a UAE/Chittagong run a 53k dwt was heard to be fixed at high $12,000’s/d levels bss dop UAE. Later another 56k dwt was heard to be fixed at $12,000/d levels bss MEG dely. On the UAE/WCI a 57k dwt was understood to be fixed bss aps Mina Saqr in the low $11,000’s/d. From S Afr, ships were heard to have achieved around $11,750/d aps loadport + $175,000 bb for trips to India and to F East, which were considerably lower than the last heard levels of over $12,000/d aps + $200,000 bb.

Far

East

P

acif

ic

This side of the market wasn’t much affected by the Holidays freight crisis since Supramax and Ultramax activity increased before the end of the year with some fixtures concluded at slightly better levels, others unchanged and a quite frozen market at the starting of the new year, with spot time charter rates lower than $300/400/d except for transpacific trade that kept stable levels. At the end of 2018 an Ultramax dely Japan was fixed for a N Pacific round at $10,500/d, a 57k dwt dely N China was taken for a trip with steels to S East Asia at $7,000/d for the first 32 days and $10,000/d balance duration while a 56k dolphin type dely Thailand got $10,250/d for a trip with sand from Malaysia to C China. An Ultramax dely Malaysia fetched $12,000/d for a trip via Indo to WCI, a ‘dolphin type dely Vietnam performed a trip via Indo to Pak at $8,750/d and an Ultramax was fixed for a trip with clinkers from Vietnam to Bangladesh at $12,000/d. Another dolphin type dely C China fixed 3/6 months period at $7,500/ for the first 30 days and $11,000 thereafter. The only available news for Handysize was for a modern 29k dwt done at $6,750/d dely very N China for a trip to Spore/Taiwan range. A very slow start of the market was seen at the beginning of 2019: a ‘dolphin type’ was done at $7,500/d from CJK for a trip via Indo to SE Asia, and an Ultramax dely SKorea fixed at an unchanged $10,500/d for a trip via N Pacific to Spore/Japan range.

US

Atl

anti

c

Sou

th A

mer

ica

4

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

BSI TC and Supramax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BSI TC

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

BHSI TC and Handysize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BHSI TC



BSI TC Avg. usd/day 10,874 11,252 -3.4% +7.5%

S4A 58 USG-Skaw/Pass usd/day 20,744 21,964 -5.6% -1.8%

S9 58 WAF-ECSA-Med usd/day 10,382 10,992 -5.5% -9.9%

S1B 58 Canakkale-FEast usd/day 20,636 21,817 -5.4% +25.1%

S11 58 Pacific r/v usd/day 8,520 8,606 -1.0% +15.9%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 11,250 11,250 +0.0% +9.8%

BHSI TC Avg. usd/day 8,276 8,636 -4.2% -6.0%


Sup

ram

axH

and

y

Rates

N E

uro

pe

M

ed

ite

rran

ean

Unit 04-Jan 28-Dec W-o-WPremium/

Discount

Jan (19) usd/day 15,342 15,642 -1.9% +0.0%

Feb (19) usd/day 12,308 11,871 +3.7% -19.8%

Mar (19) usd/day 13,129 12,883 +1.9% -14.4%

Q2 (19) usd/day 13,704 13,821 -0.8% -10.7%

Q3 (19) usd/day 16,467 16,500 -0.2% +7.3%

Q4 (19) usd/day 20,083 20,035 +0.2% +30.9%

Cal 20 usd/day 15,533 15,296 +1.5% +1.3%

Cal 21 usd/day 13,317 13,192 +0.9% -13.2%

Cal 22 usd/day 13,442 13,325 +0.9% -12.4%

Jan (19) usd/day 10,392 11,258 -7.7% -2.7%

Feb (19) usd/day 10,625 11,496 -7.6% -0.5%

Mar (19) usd/day 11,396 11,900 -4.2% +6.7%

Q2 (19) usd/day 11,354 11,738 -3.3% +6.3%

Q3 (19) usd/day 10,975 11,158 -1.6% +2.8%

Q4 (19) usd/day 11,529 11,646 -1.0% +8.0%

Cal 20 usd/day 10,371 10,433 -0.6% -2.9%

Cal 21 usd/day 9,298 9,221 +0.8% -12.9%

Cal 22 usd/day 8,764 8,820 -0.6% -17.9%

Jan (19) usd/day 10,483 10,646 -1.5% -3.6%

Feb (19) usd/day 10,417 10,533 -1.1% -4.2%

Mar (19) usd/day 10,800 10,899 -0.9% -0.7%

Q2 (19) usd/day 11,554 11,704 -1.3% +6.3%

Q3 (19) usd/day 10,713 10,793 -0.7% -1.5%

Q4 (19) usd/day 11,708 11,767 -0.5% +7.7%

Cal 20 usd/day 10,463 10,483 -0.2% -3.8%

Cal 21 usd/day 9,432 9,455 -0.2% -13.3%

Cal 22 usd/day 9,392 9,403 -0.1% -13.6%

Jan (19) usd/day 8,838 8,825 +0.1% +6.8%

Feb (19) usd/day 8,531 8,500 +0.4% +3.1%

Mar (19) usd/day 8,725 8,738 -0.1% +5.4%

Q2 (19) usd/day 9,188 9,188 +0.0% +11.0%

Q3 (19) usd/day 9,000 9,000 +0.0% +8.7%

Q4 (19) usd/day 9,544 9,550 -0.1% +15.3%

Cal 20 usd/day 9,025 9,050 -0.3% +9.1%

Cal 21 usd/day 8,913 8,919 -0.1% +7.7%

Cal 22 usd/day 8,825 8,825 +0.0% +6.6%

Han

dys

ize

Cap

esi

zeP

anam

axSu

pra

max

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21

Handysize Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000


Supramax Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

8,000

16,000

24,000

32,000


Capesize Forward Curve (usd/day)

banchero costa dry cargo chartering

Dry Bulk FFAs (Baltic Forward Assessments)

5

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000


Panamax Forward Curve (usd/day)



TD1 MEG-USG ws 25.10 32.77 -23.4% +23.2%

TD1 MEG-USG usd/day 2,065 5,239 -60.6% +119.7%

TD2 MEG-Spore ws 61.94 81.71 -24.2% +43.3%

TD3C MEG-China ws 60.84 80.75 -24.7% +41.5%

TD3C MEG-China usd/day 36,651 45,149 -18.8% +304.2%

TD15 WAF-China ws 58.21 79.08 -26.4% +32.5%

Avg. VLCC TCE usd/day 19,358 25,194 -23.2% +2792.4%


TD6 BSea-Med ws 133.96 156.67 -14.5% +80.9%

TD6 BSea-Med usd/day 54,106 59,094 -8.4% +783.8%

TD20 WAF-Cont ws 88.37 135.45 -34.8% +37.4%

MEG-EAST ws 100.00 112.00 -10.7% +11.1%

MEG-WEST ws 45.00 50.00 -10.0% +25.0%

Avg. Suezmax TCE usd/day 41,201 50,633 -18.6% +497.1%


TD7 NSea-Cont ws 110.99 200.00 -44.5% +10.1%

TD7 NSea-Cont usd/day 23,975 67,178 -64.3% +1082.2%

TD17 Baltic-UKC ws 96.67 171.94 -43.8% +43.2%

TD17 Baltic-UKC usd/day 30,613 64,755 -52.7% +6511.9%

TD19 Med-Med ws 164.41 173.61 -5.3% +87.9%

TD19 Med-Med usd/day 43,187 38,016 +14% +1312.3%

TD8 Kuwait-China ws 125.78 148.72 -15.4% +35.3%

TD8 Kuwait-China usd/day 21,020 21,548 -2.5% +365.0%

TD9 Caribs-USG ws 199.57 219.72 -9.2% +87.7%

TD9 Caribs-USG usd/day 46,287 41,299 +12.1% +630.9%

Avg. Aframax TCE usd/day 31,187 42,524 -26.7% +682.2%


VLC

CSu

ezm

axA

fram

ax

tanker chartering banchero costa

Please note that market assessments and following comment are based on the 2019 WS flat rates.

Limited activity was recorded on Vlcc over the last couple of weeks in Middle East Gulf, and as expected, rates kept softening down around WS60 for far east discharge and in the mid WS20’s for west. Owners in West Africa were struggling against a decreasing demand and couldn't do much to prevent rates from dropping down just below the WS60 mark. Out of Caribs, even if a decent amount of fresh enquiries was recorded, the still pretty long position list helped the Caribs/East route to close around $5.5 mln. No signs of improvement yet for the Suezmax market in West Africa, where another slow week caused rates to further slip down to the high WS80s for Europe discharge. In Med, the still ongoing congestion to pass the Turkish Straits helped Owner to prevent any rate deterioration and keep BlSea/Med rates in the low WS130’s. The Aframax market in Med lost some momentum but remained rather healthy mainly thanks to the increasing delays at Turkish Straits; rates for CrossMed kept WS165 level. Disappointing week for Owners in the North Sea where rates steadily eased to around WS110 for CrossCont and in the mid WS90’s off Baltic. Everything remained pretty much flat in the Caribs and rates ended up around WS200 for Caribs/USG.

Crude Oil Tanker Market

6

Rates


0

15,000

30,000

45,000

60,000

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

VLCC MEG-Far East (usd/day)

-5,000

10,000

25,000

40,000

55,000

70,000

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

TD6 Suexmax BSea-Med (usd/day)

-15,000-5,0005,000

15,00025,00035,00045,00055,000

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

TD19 Aframax Med-Med (usd/day)

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,00040,00045,000

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

VLCC Suezmax Aframax

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19

1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

LR2 MR2

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

MR Pacific Basket (usd/day)

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

MR Atlantic Basket (usd/day)

05,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

TC1 LR2 MEG-Japan (usd/day)

tanker chartering banchero costa

Product Tanker Market

Delays at Turkish Straits for Daylight Restricted Vessels

Please note that market assessments and following comment are based on the 2019 WS flat rates.

The LRs market East of Suez saw MEG/Japan LR2 fixtures at WS122.5 level (around $21,000/d TCE) and $2.35 mln for UKC discharge. LR1 fixed for East ended the week at WS160 (around $23,000/d TCE). West of Suez, rates for LR2s and LR1s on UKC/Japan routes closed at $2.5 mln and $2.1 mln respectively. After the festivities period, Clean Handysize vessels saw rates for CrossMed at WS200 and the ones for Black sea/Med trades at WS220. In Cont rates for Clean Handys on Baltic/UKC routes settled at around ws 143 with CrossCont at WS135 level. Clean MRs rates on 37,000 mts on UKC/TA routes shifted around WS115 while USG/Europe trades on 38,000 mts went down to WS127.5 mark. The new year for Dirty Handysize vessels and Mrs started slowly both in Med and UKC. Just a few 30,000 mts dirty cargoes were fixed from Med and Black Sea and, as the tonnage list kept building up, rates softened to WS270/272.5 for BSea/Med and around WS245/247.5 for CrossMed trades, while almost no fixtures were recorded for Dirty Mrs in Med. The UKC market was rather quiet and, with few spot ships around, rates went down to around WS235 for 30,000 mts on CrossCont routes. Panamaxes also lost ground and ended the week at WS135/140 level for UKC-Med/TA voyages.



TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) ws 120.19 158.57 -24.2% +44.4%

TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) usd/day 21,212 25,654 -17.3% +325.7%

TC8 MEG-UKC ( 6 5 k ) usd/mt 32.97 32.78 +0.6% +91.4%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) ws 161.61 189.06 -14.5% +63.7%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) usd/day 23,698 23,586 +0.5% +310.4%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) ws 116.11 146.67 -20.8% -24.3%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) usd/day 8,903 10,585 -15.9% -6.1%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) ws 128.38 146.25 -12.2% +8.7%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) usd/day 11,507 11,064 +4.0% +135.3%

TC9 Baltic-UKC ( 2 2 k ) ws 143.57 190.00 -24.4% -24.9%

TC6 Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 199.38 233.56 -14.6% -0.8%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) ws 208.11 237.06 -12.2% +2.9%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) usd/day 20,923 20,610 +1.5% +41.3%

TC11 SK-Spore ( 4 0 k ) usd/mt 15.68 16.65 -5.8% +103.1%

MR Pacific Basket usd/day 21,169 22,124 -4.3% +144.6%

MR Atlantic Basket usd/day 19,469 19,993 -2.6% +33.1%

LR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 19,000 19,000 +0.0% +26.7%

MR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 14,000 14,000 +0.0% +0.0%

TD12 Cont-USG ( 5 5 k ) ws 136.56 170.63 -20.0% +28.5%

TD18 Baltic-UKC ( 3 0 K) ws 234.25 272.08 -13.9% +29.8%

BSea-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 270.0 325.0 -16.9% +44.0%

Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 245.0 310.0 -21.0% +38.0%

Cle

anD

irty

Rates


Northbound days 16.0 15.0 +6.7% +166.7%

Southbound days 11.0 11.0 +0.0% +120.0%

600

700

800

900

1,000

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

Shanghai Container Freight Index

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

20/12/17 20/4/18 20/8/18 20/12/18

Geared - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

2500 1700 1100

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

20/12/17 20/4/18 20/8/18 20/12/18

Gearless - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

4250 3500 2700

Unit 20-Dec 13-Dec W-o-W Y-o-Y

ConTex index 408 413 -1.2% +1.0%

4250 teu (1Y, g’less) usd/day 9,808 9,960 -1.5% +24.2%



2500 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 9,416 9,552 -1.4% +4.5%

1700 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 7,640 7,782 -1.8% -9.6%

1100 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 6,410 6,438 -0.4% -1.8%

Transpacific prices continued their decline like the freight prices on the other key lanes (China-North Europe and North Europe-US East Coast). The chartering activity eased during Christmas season whilst rates kept the trend of the last weeks. On period, reported fixtures maintained a very flexible duration compared to just few months ago.

banchero costa containers

VHSS Containership Timecharter Assessment (source: Hamburg Shipbrokers’ Association)

Containership Market

Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange)

8


Comprehensive Index index 941 911 +3.3% +30.1%

Services:

Shanghai - North Europe usd/teu 996 996 +0.0% +24.5%

Shanghai - Mediterranean usd/teu 997 967 +3.1% +67.3%

Shanghai - WC USA usd/feu 1,933 1,883 +2.7% +64.2%

Shanghai - EC USA usd/feu 3,119 2,998 +4.0% +58.2%

Shanghai - Dubai usd/teu 789 668 +18.1% +147.3%

Shanghai - Santos usd/teu 1,237 1,092 +13.3% -58.6%

Shanghai - Singapore usd/teu 153 153 +0.0% +2.0%


Recent Fixtures

Vessel Name Built TEUs TEU@14 Gear Fixture Period Rates

Seaspan Dubai 2006 4,250 2,810 no extended to One 3-7 m $9,250/d

Barry 2004 3,091 2,481 yes fixed to Cma Cgm 5-7 m $9,500/d

As Carpathia 2003 2,824 2,020 no fixed to Ts Lines 15-50 days $9,000/d

Cape Moss 2011 2,758 2,269 yes fixed to Global Feeder 1-2 m $9,000/d

Uru Bhum 2005 2,588 1,920 no fixed to Ts Lines 15-50 days $8,350/d

Hooge 2006 1,368 870 yes extended to Maersk 1-6 m $6,700/d

100

105

110

115

120

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

Yen/USD Exchange

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

USD/Euro Exchange

20

30

40

50

Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

Newbuilding Prices (usd mln)

Ultramax LR2 MR2

3 yrs 5 yrs 7 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs 20 yrs

USD 2.58 2.56 2.60 2.69 2.78 2.80

Euro -0.06 0.19 0.45 0.79 1.16 1.32

Libor USD Libor Euro Euribor Euro

6 Months 2.86 -0.30 -0.24

12 Months 2.96 -0.18 -0.12

banchero costa

It's no secret 2018 was a record-breaking year for LNG sector with more than 70 newbuilding orders in the records. In the last days of December, other two orders were added to the list. GasLog, Greece signed two more VLGC with Samsung of 180,000 cbm - Membrane type New Mark V tanker containment systems - against seven year charters to Cheniere, France. The newcomer Navigare Capital Partners diversified their bulkers and tankers vision with a new order of same type LNG/same yard as above at a price of $186 mln (against $190 mln paid by GasLog, likely for different specification). A single LPG order of 86,000 cbm + 1 optional was also recorded at Jiangnan SY by Tianjin Southwest Maritime for dely in September 2021 Tier III engine. Price was undisclosed.

In the tanker segment, Navios Shipmanagement, Greece contracted 2+2 VLCCs for dely September 2021 at Imabari at a price of $92.5 mln per unit, Tier III and scrubber fitted are included in the price. Finally, Sovcomflot awarded its compatriot Zvezda Shipyard with another order, this time for three 51,000 dwt LNG fuelled MR2 products carriers with long term T/C to Novatek secured for all units. Zvezda is being renowned to be sided by DMSE with their know-how.

Newbuilding Market

Newbuilding Reported Orders

Indicative Newbuilding Prices (China)

sale & purchase

Interest Rates

Interest Rate Swaps

9

Unit 01-Jan-19 M-o-M Y-o-Y

Capesize usd mln 48.9 +0.4% +8.6%

Ultramax usd mln 26.3 -0.2% +6.8%

Supramax usd mln 23.2 -0.2% +6.7%

VLCC usd mln 83.5 +0.3% +6.9%

LR2 Coated usd mln 46.7 +1.0% +8.0%

MR2 Coated usd mln 33.8 +0.0% +2.6%

04-Jan 28-Dec W-o-W Y-o-Y

USD/Euro 1.14 1.15 -0.4% -5.5%

Yen/USD 108.5 110.3 -1.6% -3.8%

SK Won/USD 1,124 1,116 +0.8% +5.9%

Exchange Rates


Type Size Built Yard Buyers Price Comment

LNG 180,000 cbm 04-08 2021 Samsung Heavy Industries Gaslog 190 2 units

LNG 180,000 cbm 12 2020 Samsung Heavy Industries Navigare Capital 186 1 unit

Crude 320,000 dwt 09 2021 Imabari Navios 92.5 2+2 optional

TYPE VESSEL NAME DWT BLT YARD BUYERS PRICE NOTE

Bulk North Quay 57,000 2010 Ningbo Beilun Chinese buyers 19

En bloc deal. En bloc price

Bulk Salford Quay 57,000 2011 Taizhou Sanfu Chinese buyers

Bulk Grand Marais 35,000 2016 Jiangdong Wuhu Undisclosed 16,2 En bloc deal. Price each.

Bulk North Star 35,000 2016 Jiangdong Wuhu Undisclosed 16,2

Crude Resale Aframax 113,000 2020 Hanjin Subic- Philiipine C.of Unisea 47

Crude Resale Aframax 113,000 2020 Hanjin Subic- Philiipine C.of Unisea 47

Prod Formosa Sixteen 46,000 2007 Bohai C.of Monte Nero 8

350

400

450

500

7/1/18 7/5/18 7/9/18 7/1/19

SubCon Demo Assessment (usd/ldt)

Dirty Tnk Clean Tnk Dry Bulk

15

20

25

30

35

7/1/18 7/5/18 7/9/18 7/1/19

Secondhand Values (usd mln)

Panamax Aframax MR

Unit 07-Jan 02-Jan W-o-W Y-o-Y

Dry Bulk usd/ldt 420.0 420.0 +0.0% -2.6%

Dirty Tanker usd/ldt 430.0 427.5 +0.6% -1.6%

Clean Tanker usd/ldt 427.5 427.0 +0.1% -1.7%

sale & purchase banchero costa

Secondhand Market

Baltic Secondhand Assessments

Baltic Demolition Assessment (Subcontinent)

10

Unit 07-Jan 02-Jan W-o-W Y-o-Y

Capesize usd mln 35.8 35.5 +0.9% +9.3%

Panamax usd mln 21.7 21.6 +0.7% +6.0%

Supramax usd mln 18.4 18.3 +0.7% +6.6%

VLCC usd mln 64.4 64.2 +0.4% +5.0%

Aframax usd mln 31.4 31.0 +1.3% +6.6%

MR Product usd mln 26.6 26.3 +0.9% +12.0%


During the first week of January, most of the activity was focused in the dry segment. Two Dolphin 57 Supramax “North Quay” around 57,000 dwt 2010 built Nigbo and “Salford Quay” around 57,000 dwt 2011 built Taizhou were sold for $19 mln en bloc to Chinese buyers. The week before “Conti Lapislazuli” around 57,000 dwt 2011 built Taizhou Sanfu was done at $10.5 mln. Always in the same segment, a Japanese controlled unit “Ocean Colossus” around 55,000 dwt 2010 built Kawasaki was agreed at $15.5 mln. In the Handy segment, a more vintage Handymax “Uniorder” around 47,000 dwt 1997 built Oshima was sold at $4.5 mln. Few weeks ago “Stella T” around 48,000 dwt 1997 built Oshima was done at $4.7 mln. Furthermore two modern Chinese built units “Grand Marais” and “North Star” around 35,000 dwt 2016 built Jiangdong Wuhu were sold at $16.2 mln each in an en bloc deal. In the tanker sector, we understand that the two resale Aframax (tier III and scrubbers fitted) ordered by Cukurova Holding at $45 mln each during September 2018, have been resold to Unisea Shipping at $47 mln each. Vessels to be delivered in June and September 2020. In addition, a Chinese built MR “Formosa Sixteen“ around 46,000 dwt 2007 built Bohai was agreed at $8 mln to C. of Monte Nero.

Secondhand Reported Sales

news banchero costa

China to restrict imports of scrap steel, aluminium from July China will restrict imports of scrap steel and aluminium from July 1, the environment ministry said. Scrap steel and aluminium would be moved from an unrestricted import list of solid waste products usable as raw materials to a restricted import list, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment said in a statement. Brazil farmers receive windfall amid global trade tensions -2018 data Brazil's farmers experienced an export-led bonanza in 2018, with soybean sales reaching a record amid global trade jitters and rising coffee exports driven by strong demand from buyers like the United States and Germany. Soybean growers in Brazil, already the world's largest exporter of the oilseeds, sold some 83.8 million tonnes of that grain last year in global markets, up 23.1 percent from 2017, according to foreign commerce data for 2018 released by Brazil's government. Is China buying U.S. soy? Washington shutdown keeps traders guessing Commodity traders are in the dark because of the partial U.S. government shutdown, unable to see daily and weekly reports of agricultural exports to obtain clues as to whether China is following through with promises to buy grain and soy amid the ongoing trade war. Traders have been anxiously awaiting proof from the U.S. Department of Agriculture that China is ramping up purchases of grains and soy from U.S. farmers, who are preparing their spring planting and trying to secure financing for seeds, fertilizer and land rents. Russian wheat exports gathered pace in December before holiday lull-analyst Russian wheat exports rose sharply to 1.2 million tonnes in the last week of December, but trade is expected to be thin during the Dec. 30-Jan. 8 New Year holiday, the SovEcon agricultural consultancy said. As of Dec. 27, Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, had shipped 28.2 million tonnes of grain since the start of the 2018/19 season on July 1. That was up 5 percent from a year ago and included 23.8 million tonnes of wheat, the agriculture ministry said. Morocco maintains suspension of soft wheat duty until April 30, 2019 - govt official Morocco will suspend the customs duty on soft wheat for four more months until April 30, 2019, to maintain price stability and ensure regular supply, a government spokesperson said. The government has acted to maintain the import price of soft wheat at 260 Moroccan dirhams per quintal and as a social measure, Mustapha El Khalfi said at a weekly press briefing. Ukraine sea port grain exports fall 21 pct in Dec. 15-21 week Ukrainian grain exports from sea ports fell to 536,000 tonnes in the Dec. 15-21 week from 680,000 tonnes a week earlier, analyst APK-Inform said. The consultancy said in a statement that smaller shipments of wheat and corn were the main reason for the drop. Scant rain poised to stress Brazil sugarcane as well as soy Erratic rains in Brazil, which have already been hurting the soybean crop, are also beginning to stress sugarcane fields, which this season are more susceptible due to plant aging, experts told Reuters. Sugarcane is usually more resilient than soybeans amid weather adversity; still, below-average rains and high temperatures are cause for concern in the industry, which faces potential losses if such conditions persist, they said. EU reinforces position as grain importer as maize keeps coming The European Union reinforced its newly acquired position as a net cereal importer at the end of December as a record pace of maize imports continued to outstrip faltering wheat and barley exports, official data showed. As of Dec. 30, the 28-country EU had imported 14.8 million tonnes of cereals since the start of the 2018/19 season in July, compared with cereal exports of 13.6 million tonnes, the data from the European Commission showed. Turkey November petcoke imports up 42% on year at 357,743 mt: ministry Turkey imported 257,743 mt of petcoke in November, up 8.9% on the month and 42% from the year-ago month, according to ministry data release. Unsurprisingly, the US was the source of the majority of the imports with smaller volumes recorded from Spain and Venezuela. Imports from the US were 342,213 mt, up 9% on the month and 52% from the year-ago month. This accounted for 95.7% of all Turkish imports. The sharp rise from the year-ago month could be partially explained by the lower US export volumes seen throughout late 2017 resulting from Hurricane Harvey. Source: Thomson Reuters/ Platts

Dry Bulk Commodities


news banchero costa

Oil & Gas

Oversupply, faltering growth to weigh on oil prices in 2019 Crude oil prices look likely to trade below $70 per barrel in 2019 as surplus production, much of it from the United States, and slowing economic growth undermine OPEC-led efforts to shore up the market, a Reuters poll showed. A survey of 32 economists and analysts forecasts the North Sea Brent crude oil benchmark will average $69.13 per barrel in 2019, more than $5 lower than last month's projection. OPEC oil output posts biggest drop since 2017 on Saudi move OPEC oil supply fell in December by the largest amount in almost two years, a Reuters survey found, as top exporter Saudi Arabia made an early start to a supply-limiting accord while Iran and Libya posted involuntary declines. The 15-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 32.68 million barrels per day last month, the survey on Thursday found, down 460,000 bpd from November and the largest month-on-month drop since Jan 2017. Russian oil output reaches record high in 2018 Russian oil production rose to a post-Soviet record high of 11.16 million barrels per day (bpd) last year on an annual average basis, data from its energy ministry showed on Wednesday. The total surpassed the previous annual record average of 10.98 million bpd set in 2017. Libya's NOC sees Sharara oilfield output losses of 11,000 bpd after restart Libya's Sharara oilfield will be losing up to 11,000 barrels per day (bpd) when production restarts because of damage to the facility, the National Oil Corporation said on Thursday. NOC said in a statement on Facebook the facilities had been damaged by looting, including the theft of an electrical transformer and oil well cables. China cuts refiners' oil import quotas with first 2019 allowances China issued its first batch of crude oil import quotas for 2019 on Wednesday at a lower volume than for the same batch a year ago though expectations are for the volumes to climb later this year. The Ministry of Commerce granted quotas totalling 89.84 million tonnes to 58 companies in its first allowances for 2019, according to four sources with direct knowledge of the matter and documents reviewed by Reuters. Crude output falls in 2018 at China's top Daqing oil field Crude oil output at CNPC's Daqing oil field, China's largest, fell to 32 million tonnes in 2018, down more than 6 percent from a year earlier, the state-owned oil company reported in its official newspaper. The fall came despite mounting efforts from the producer to increase domestic output, with Daqing accounting for nearly one third of CNPC's crude production inside China. U.S. crude stockpiles flat, products build sharply - EIA U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories rose sharply last week as refineries ramped up activity, while crude oil stocks were barely changed, the Energy Information Administration said on Friday. Crude inventories rose by 7,000 barrels in the week to Dec. 28, compared with analyst expectations for a decrease of 3.1 million barrels, the EIA said in its report delayed by two days due to the New Year's Day holiday. Asian naphtha under pressure as supply threatens to outweigh demand The Asian physical naphtha market looks set to face downside pressure in the first half of 2019 as key producers in the Middle East and Southeast Asia move to ramp up production, while demand in Northeast Asia could falter during a heavy steam cracker maintenance season over April-June. The impact of new plants starting up in the Middle East in late 2018 -- which will ramp up to full production in early 2019 -- will be keenly felt in the first quarter as more naphtha supply flows into Asia, market sources said. Product flows to West Africa at 722,000 mt so far in January Refined oil product arrivals into West Africa in January totaled 722,000 mt as of last Wednesday, compared with 1.842 million mt in the whole of December, according to Platts cFlow, trade flow software. Interest in gasoil and gasoline has been sustained from West Africa recently, particularly from Nigeria ahead of its election on February 16. However, gasoline flows out of Northwest Europe into West Africa slowed towards the end of December and could remain subdued through January, as much of the product in anticipation for Nigeria's election was already in the region. LNG imports into Northeast Asia climb to record high in December Shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) into Northeast Asia have risen to a record in December, mainly driven by China’s continued gasification push, and as the region faces colder-than-usual temperatures. LNG imports into China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, have climbed to 20.5 million tonnes so far in December, 5 percent higher than the previous monthly record of 19.5 million tonnes back in January, data from Refinitiv Eikon showed. Source: Thomson Reuters/ Platts

market report - week 1/2019 12

300

400

500

600

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

Wheat and Corn Prices (usd/t)

Corn Wheat

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

Steel Prices in China (rmb/t)

Rebar Plate

40

60

80

100

120

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

Iron Ore and Coal Prices (usd/t)

Steam Coal Iron Ore

40

50

60

70

80

90

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

Brent and WTI Oil Prices (usd/bbl)

Brent WTI

200

400

600

800

4/1/18 4/5/18 4/9/18 4/1/19

Bunker Prices @ Singapore (usd/t)

IFO 380 IFO 180 MGO


Wheat usd/t 517.3 503.3 +2.8% +20.0%

Corn usd/t 382.8 375.0 +2.1% +9.0%

Soybeans usd/t 913.0 882.5 +3.5% -5.9%

Palm Oil usd/t 527.7 512.4 +3.0% -18.9%


Iron Ore (Platts) usd/t 73.1 71.3 +2.5% -5.2%

Iron Ore China @Tangshan rmb/t 574.0 579.0 -0.9% +6.3%

Rebar in China rmb/t 3,830 3,875 -1.2% -12.1%

Plate in China rmb/t 4,067 4,079 -0.3% -8.1%

HR Coil in China rmb/t 3,830 3,867 -1.0% -13.8%

CR Sheet in China rmb/t 4,307 4,337 -0.7% -13.4%


Steam @ Richards Bay usd/t 92.9 96.2 -3.4% -3.2%

Steam @ Newcastle usd/t 99.6 102.6 -2.9% -5.4%

Coking Coal Australia usd/t 197.0 218.0 -9.6% -23.6%


Crude Oil Brent usd/bbl 58.2 52.2 +11.4% -14.2%

Crude Oil WTI usd/bbl 48.9 45.3 +7.8% -20.6%

Crude Oil Dubai usd/bbl 55.7 52.2 +6.8% -15.0%

Natural Gas Henry Hub usd/mmbtu 2.96 3.02 -2.0% +6.1%

Gasoline Nymex usd/gal 1.38 1.28 +7.8% -22.9%

ICE Gasoil usd/t 528.5 510.8 +3.5% -12.5%

Naphtha Tokyo usd/t 462.0 453.9 +1.8% -23.0%

Jet-Kerosene Asia usd/bbl 69.5 68.0 +2.2% -12.7%


Rotterdam usd/t 325.5 331.0 -1.7% -11.7%

Gibraltar usd/t 363.0 354.5 +2.4% -5.1%

Singapore usd/t 370.0 354.5 +4.4% -5.9%

Rotterdam usd/t 366.5 341.0 +7.5% -9.4%

Gibraltar usd/t 389.0 380.5 +2.2% -5.0%

Singapore usd/t 393.5 375.5 +4.8% -4.6%

Rotterdam usd/t 472.5 477.5 -1.0% -18.7%

Gibraltar usd/t 564.0 550.0 +2.5% -11.0%

Singapore usd/t 519.5 507.0 +2.5% -11.9%

IFO

38

0IF

O 1

80

MG

O

banchero costa commodities

Oil & Gas Prices

Coal Prices

Iron Ore and Steel Prices

Agricultural

Bunker Prices


head office: via pammatone, 2 16121 genoa (italy)

phone: + 39-010-[5631-1]

dry - capesize 5631-200 [email protected] research 5631-535 [email protected]

dry - panamax 5631-200 [email protected] ship finance 5631-556 [email protected]

dry - handy 5631-200 [email protected] insurance 5631-700 [email protected]

dry - operation 5631-200 [email protected] p&i 5631-770 [email protected]

tankers 5631-300 [email protected] yachting 5631-764 [email protected]

containers 5631-515 [email protected] agency 5631-600 [email protected]

s&p 5631-500 [email protected] ship repair 5631-626 [email protected]

offshore 5631-550 [email protected] towage/salvage 5631-626 [email protected]

bancosta uk bancosta monaco bancosta sa medioriental

london monte carlo geneva dubai

phone: +44-207-398-1870 phone: +377-97-707-497 phone: +41-22-737-2626 phone: +971-4-360-5598

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

bancosta oriente bancosta oriente bancosta oriente japan rep.office singapore hong kong beijing tokyo

phone: +65-6327-6862 phone: +852-2865-1535 phone: +86-10-8453-4993 phone: +81-362-688-958

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected] [email protected]

web site: www.bancosta.com

linkedin: linkedin.com/company/banchero-costa

twitter: twitter.com/banchero_costa

banchero costa network

In addition to regular market reports, banchero costa research recognize the need for bespoke reports & analysis, tailored to specific client needs.

Reports can be produced on a wide range of shipping markets including dry bulk, tankers, gas & containers. In addition in-depth reports can be produced on specific commodity markets.

To discuss individual requirements please contact:

Phone: +65 6327 6863

Email: [email protected]

Legal notice: The information and data contained in this presentation is derived from a variety of sources, own and third party’s, public and private, and

is provided for information purposes only.

Whilst banchero costa has used reasonable efforts to include accurate and up-to-date information in this presentation, banchero costa makes no

warranties or representations as to the accuracy of any information contained herein or accuracy or reasonableness of conclusions drawn there from.

Although some forward-looking statements are made in the report, banchero costa cannot in any way guarantee their accuracy or reasonableness.

banchero costa assumes no liabilities or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content of this report.

Documents

BANCOSTA Weekly Market Report · comment banchero costa market report - week 1/2019 2 In the first 11 months of 2018, total coal and lignite imports increased a strong 8.9 percent