BANCOSTA Weekly Market Report - Hellenic Shipping News

weeklymarketreport

Week 05/2020 (27 Jan – 31 Jan)

Comment: Russian LNG Exports in 2019

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7

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56

1 2 2

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16

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EU Japan China, PR S. Korea Taiwan Jordan Others

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Russia - LNG Exports by Destination in Jan-Dec(jan 2020 ; source: refinitiv ; seaborne only ; in mln tonnes)

2017 (1-12) 2018 (1-12) 2019 (1-12)

EU55%

Japan20%

China, PR10%

South Korea7%

Taiwan, CN5%

Jordan1%

Others2%

Russia LNG Exports by Dest. in Jan-Dec 2019 (jan 2020 ; source: refinitiv vessel tracking ; % of export volume)

A lot of attention has been paidrecently on the surge in LNGexports from the United States.

However, another country which isseeing truly exponential growth inthis sector is Russia.

In the 12 months of 2019, Russiaexported 28.6 mln tonnes of LNG,according to vessel tracking datafrom Refinitiv.

This represents an increase of+57.0% year-on-year, compared tothe 18.2 mln tonnes exported in2018. Also, it was +170.0% morethan the 10.6 mln tonnes of LNGexported by Russia in 2017.

Russia now accounts for 8.0% ofglobal LNG seaborne exports.

Last year there has also been aquite significant reshuffling in thetrade patterns from Russia.

Japan used to be the topdestination for Russian LNG until2018. In 2017, Japan accounted foras much as 62% of all Russian LNGexports. However, Japan’s sharehas fallen to just 20% in 2019.

Even in absolute volumes, therehas been a decrease last year.Japan bought only 5.8 mln tonnesof LNG from Russia in 2019, down-9.1% from 6.4 mln tonnes in 2018,and -12.3% down from the 6.6 mlntonnes imported in 2017.

Shipments from Russia to Taiwan

have also shrunk. In 2019 Russiaexported just 1.3 mln tonnes ofLNG to the island, down -33% from1.9 mln tonnes in 2018.

Exports to South Korea haverebounded by +27% year-on-yearin 2019 to 2.1 mln tonnes, from alow of 1.6 mln tonnes in 2018, andslightly above the 1.9 mln tonnesof 2017.

The jump in demand fromMainland China was much moresignificant though.

In 2019, Russia exported 2.8 mlntonnes of LNG to Mainland China,up +98% year-on-year from the 1.4mln tonnes of 2018, and almostsix-fold the 0.5 mln tonnes of 2017.

However, by far the biggestincrease has been in shipments toWestern Europe.

In 2019, Russia exported 15.7 mlntonnes of LNG to the EuropeanUnion, a massive +191% year-on-year increase from the 5.4 mlntonnes of 2018.

It’s worth pointing out that in 2017the volumes were negligible (just0.2 mln tonnes).

LNG is playing an increasinglyimportant role in Europe’s energysupply mix. Following a period oflow utilisation of Europe’s LNGimport terminals between 2012and 2017, LNG imports to Europe

surged from the third quarter of2018 onwards, and peaked in thespring of 2019.

In total in 2019, the EuropeanUnion imported 80.5 mln tonnes ofLNG, up +79.5% year-on-year, andaccounted for 22.5% of global LNGdemand.

Russia was the second largestsupplier of LNG to the EU in 2019,being the source of 20% of the EU’stotal imports. In first place was stillQatar, which accounted for 27% ofthe EU’s LNG imports.

Last year, the largest Europeanimporter of Russian LNG wereFrance with 5.1 mln tonnes,followed by the Netherlands with3.2 mln tonnes.

Down the list we have the UK with2.4 mln tonnes, Belgium with 2.3mln tonnes, Spain with 2.2 mlntonnes.

There have also been smallvolumes shipped to Finland,Sweden, Lithuania, and Portugal.

The vast majority of LNG exportsfrom Russia are sourced from theYamal LNG project, thenorthernmost industrial facility onthe globe, and loaded at SabettaPort on Russia’s Arctic coast.

Yamal LNG is served by a fleet of15 ice-class 170,000 cubic meterLNG carriers.

COMMENT MARKET REPORT – WEEK 48/2019 2COMMENT 2

RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS IN 2019

MARKET REPORT – WEEK 05/2020

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31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

BPI 82 TC and Kamsarmax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BPI TC

Unit 31-Jan 24-Jan W-o-W Y-o-Y

BPI 74 TC Avg. usd/day 3,827 4,880 -21.6% -17.0%

BPI 82 TC Avg. usd/day 5,163 6,216 -16.9% -15.1%

P1_82 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 3,835 4,590 -16.4% +10.1%

P2_82 Skaw-Gib Trip F. East usd/day 12,736 13,723 -7.2% +8.2%

P3_82 Pacific r/v usd/day 3,598 4,677 -23.1% -36.3%

1 Yr TC Period Panamax usd/day 9,750 10,250 -4.9% +2.6%

1 Yr TC Period Kamsarmax usd/day 11,200 11,500 -2.6% +1.8%

0

7,000

14,000

21,000

28,000

35,000

42,000

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

BCI TC and Capesize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BCI TC


BCI TC Avg. usd/day 3,973 4,772 -16.7% -56.8%

C8 Transatlantic r/v usd/day 7,465 8,475 -11.9% -34.2%

C14 China-Brazil r/v usd/day 2,427 2,970 -18.3% -72.5%

C10 Pacific r/v usd/day 1,471 1,736 -15.3% -73.9%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 14,000 14,000 +0.0% -12.5%

The Capesize market seemed stillin free fall: the 5TC average lostanother $1,000/d last week withChinese New Year holidays and thecoronavirus slowing down theactivity.Tubarao-Qingdao rates wentprogressively down losing $1/mtand traded around $15/mt.Saldanha Bay-Qingdao ratesfollowed the same path or evenworst losing in one week $1.5/mtand ending on Friday at $10.60/mt.

W Australia-Qingdao rates were abit more swinging: remained stableuntil Wednesday, then lost$0.15/mt in the following two daysand on Friday regained $0.1/mt toclose the week at $6.10/mt.Not much activity on the Atlanticside: Fronthaul rates decreasedlosing $ 1,500/d and touching$20,300/d while TA rates closedthe week at $8,300/d.On period the activity was verylittle due to very low market

conditions: some deals were donemainly index linked basis.

CHARTERING 3

DRY CARGOCAPESIZE MARKET

PANAMAX MARKETA 80,000 dwt unit with dely apsECSAm was fixed at $ 12,750/d +275,000 bb for redely in S E Asiaand similar rates were rumored fortrips with Pakistan redely. AKamsarmax was fixed aps basisfrom NCSAm with redelySpore/Japan range at $14,000/d +400,000 bb.In BSea Kamsarmax units werefixed at $18,500/d with redelySpore/Japan range and LME unitswere fixed at $19,000/d basis dely

aps Canakkale for similar trips.In Cont Kamsarmax units open inDunkirk for trip via Murmansk withredely Skaw-Gibraltar were fixed at$7,000/d with cargo coal and otherunits with dely Rotterdam werefixed at $16,000/d for trip via US ECoast to India. A 75,000 dwt fromEemshaven was fixed around$8,000/d for trip from Algeria toLalemant.The Pacific basin was heavilyaffected by holidays and the virus

and some owners decided to waitinstead of chasing lower and lowerrates. Period activity was limited, aKamsarmax was reported with delyHaldia for 4/7 months at $5,500/dfor first 40 days thereafter wasreported at $11,500/d with redelyworldwide.


The trend was quite stable even ifrates were still a bit lower than theprevious week both on Handysizeand on Supramax.On Handysize, a 38,000 dwt ecotype was rumored to have fixed acoal cargo from N Cont to E Med at$8,500/d basis dely dop a few daysaway from loading port.On Supramax a cargo of about55,000 mt of coal from N Cont toPakistan was fixed around $27/mtbasis 1 to 1 which showed anequivalent of around $16,750/d

with dely Cont on a nice Tess58,000. A few weeks before asimilar cargo was fixed some$1.50/mt higher.In Med at the end of the weekrates showed some improvementson Supramax Fronthauls andshowed rates stagnating forsmaller units: poor fixtures in the$4/5,000/d region were registeredfor both InterMed cargoes andtrips to Cont.Supramax units were fixing in the$15/16,000s/d levels for Fronthaul

with dely Canakkale via BSea toSpore/Japan range and wererumored around $8,000/d for tripto MEG/Pakistan basis redely PortSaid.

The Supramax market was quitestable during the week even ifrates went further down due tosome very slow activity. BalticIndex showed on Friday a smallrecovery on Fronthauls from USG.Supramax units on TA RV werefixed around $11,000/d andUltramax units around $14,000/d.USG-F East had a premium of$2/3,000/d. Petcoke rates went upanother $2,000/d, especially forFronthaul. Handysize tonnage listremained, as per last week, longand spot units were still available.The amount of cargoes was notenough to predict any change yet.

32/35,000 dwt units were fixedaround $6,500/7,000/d and fancy36/39,000 dwt units were fixed inthe $9,000s/d. No changesexpected for the next few weeks.After a few weeks of relativestability, the ECSAm market begana slow and relentless declineduring the week. Although thelevels did not differ significantlyfrom those of the previous weeks,it was the sentiment that worried:the Atlantic market was not able tostop this descent at the moment.The most stable route remainedthe trip to F East for all the sizes:this seemed to depend more from

the problems related to China as anot welcome destination ratherthan to market stability.Handysize trips to East were stillaround $17,000/d level, Supramaxunits were fixed at $12,500/d +250,000 bb and Ultramax at$13/13,500/d + 300/350,000 bb.Rates for trips to Skaw-Passerowent from $13,000/d to $10,000/d for Handysize and Supramaxunits.For the same trip Ultramax unitswere seeing higher rates around$11,000/d, but this value was still$1,500/2,000 less than before.

CHARTERING 4

SUPRAMAX & HANDYSIZE MARKET

US ATLANTIC SOUTH AMERICA


N EUROPE MEDITERRANEAN

INDIA S AFRICAEven if the demand was weakMEG-India rates showed a bit morestability. A 57,000 unit was heardto be fixed from Pakistan toChittagong around low $6,000s/dbasis dely aps. On the usuallimestone trade MEG-India rateswith dely aps UAE were discussedaround $6,500/7,000/d forUltramax units and around $5,500/d for Supramax units. Not

much activity from ECI with ironore probably due to a fall ofcommodity prices: Supramax unitswere discussed around $ 3,000/dlevel basis dely aps for coastaltrades between ECI-ECI and ECI-WCI. There was some periodactivity in the area for whichcharterers showed to be keener onUltramax units.A 61,000 dwt unit was rumored to

be fixed around mid $11,000/d forshort/mid period with no furtherdetails reported and similar rateswere heard for another Ultramaxopen WCI.Not much activity came from SAfr:a 58,000 dwt unit was heard to befixed around $ 9,500/d aps basisfor coal to Red Sea.

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31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

BHSI 28 TC and Handysize 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BHSI TC

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

BSI TC and Supramax 1-YR Period (usd/day)

1-YR TC BSI TC

HANDYSIZE Unit 31-Jan 24-Jan W-o-W Y-o-Y

BHSI_28 TC Avg. usd/day 4,013 4,520 -11.2% -15.8%

BHSI_38 TC Avg. usd/day 5,979 6,486 -7.8% -6.3%

HS2_38 Skaw/Pass-US usd/day 5,414 5,936 -8.8% -10.3%

HS3_38 ECSAm-Skaw/Pass usd/day 10,417 11,483 -9.3% +46.3%

HS4_38 USG-Skaw/Pass usd/day 8,294 8,775 -5.5% +43.5%

HS5_38 SE Asia-Spore/Japan usd/day 4,805 5,229 -8.1% -27.1%

HS6_38 Pacific RV usd/day 4,503 4,822 -6.6% -30.6%

1 Year TC Period 32,000 dwt usd/day 7,500 7,500 +0.0% -11.8%

1 Year TC Period 38,000 dwt usd/day 8,000 7,500 +6.7% n.a.

SUPRAMAX Unit 31-Jan 24-Jan W-o-W Y-o-Y

BSI TC Avg. usd/day 5,764 5,976 -3.5% +7.2%

S4A_58 USG-Skaw/Pass usd/day 13,044 13,581 -4.0% +128.8%

S1C_58 USG-China/S Jpn usd/day 18,567 18,792 -1.2% +56.8%

S9_58 WAF-ECSA-Med usd/day 4,060 4,514 -10.1% +63.6%

S1B_58 Canakkale-FEast usd/day 15,850 14,861 +6.7% +32.7%

S2_58 N China Aus/Pac RV usd/day 3,857 4,321 -10.7% -39.6%

S10_58 S China-Indo RV usd/day 2,928 2,950 -0.7% -36.7%

1 Year TC Period Supramax usd/day 9,000 9,000 +0.0% -7.7%

1 Year TC Period Ultramax usd/day 10,000 10,000 +0.0% -7.0%

CHARTERING 5

SUPRAMAX & HANDYSIZE MARKET

FAR EAST PACIFIC

F East market kept suffering due tothe local holidays and thecoronavirus which froze thetrading. Rates decreased a bitcompared to last week: around$200/300/d less both onSupramax/Ultramax and onHandysize.A 56,000 dwt unit with dely NChina was fixed at $2,000/d for a

trip to S China with limestone.Some fixtures were reported forIndia direction: a new Ultramaxwith dely Indonesia was reportedto be done at $5,500/d for a trip toWCI and a 52,000 dwt unit with thesame dely was done at $6,000/dfor a trip to ECI.


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6,000

9,000

12,000

Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23

Handysize Forward Curve (usd/day)

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4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000


Supramax Forward Curve (usd/day)

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5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


Panamax Forward Curve (usd/day)

0

9,000

18,000

27,000

36,000

45,000


Capesize Forward Curve (usd/day)

CAPESIZE Unit 31-Jan 24-Jan W-o-WPremium/

Discount

Feb (20) usd/day 5,400 7,906 -31.7% +35.9%

Mar (20) usd/day 7,541 6,750 +11.7% +89.8%

Apr (20) usd/day 9,625 8,784 +9.6% +142.3%

Feb/Mar (20) usd/day 6,471 7,814 -17.2% +62.9%

Q2 (20) usd/day 11,224 12,175 -7.8% +182.5%

Q3 (20) usd/day 16,375 16,866 -2.9% +312.2%

Q4 (20) usd/day 17,044 17,341 -1.7% +329.0%

Cal 21 usd/day 12,988 13,128 -1.1% +226.9%

Cal 22 usd/day 13,028 13,072 -0.3% +227.9%

Feb (20) usd/day 6,336 7,136 -11.2% +22.7%

Mar (20) usd/day 8,377 7,908 +5.9% +62.3%

Apr (20) usd/day 9,874 10,533 -6.3% +91.2%

Feb/Mar (20) usd/day 7,356 8,526 -13.7% +42.5%

Q2 (20) usd/day 10,486 11,736 -10.7% +103.1%

Q3 (20) usd/day 11,592 11,942 -2.9% +124.5%

Q4 (20) usd/day 11,589 11,914 -2.7% +124.5%

Cal 21 usd/day 10,827 10,980 -1.4% +109.7%

Cal 22 usd/day 10,505 10,549 -0.4% +103.5%

Feb (20) usd/day 6,168 6,318 -2.4% +7.0%

Mar (20) usd/day 7,632 7,086 +7.7% +32.4%

Apr (20) usd/day 8,682 8,825 -1.6% +50.6%

Feb/Mar (20) usd/day 6,900 7,410 -6.9% +19.7%

Q2 (20) usd/day 9,042 9,750 -7.3% +56.9%

Q3 (20) usd/day 10,246 10,229 +0.2% +77.8%

Q4 (20) usd/day 10,221 10,164 +0.6% +77.3%

Cal 21 usd/day 9,346 9,479 -1.4% +62.1%

Cal 22 usd/day 8,961 8,954 +0.1% +55.5%

Feb (20) usd/day 7,616 7,666 -0.7% +27.4%

Mar (20) usd/day 8,429 8,241 +2.3% +41.0%

Apr (20) usd/day 8,854 8,929 -0.8% +48.1%

Feb/Mar (20) usd/day 8,022 8,279 -3.1% +34.2%

Q2 (20) usd/day 9,056 9,191 -1.5% +51.5%

Q3 (20) usd/day 9,254 9,372 -1.3% +54.8%

Q4 (20) usd/day 9,197 9,347 -1.6% +53.8%

Cal 21 usd/day 8,960 9,066 -1.2% +49.9%

Cal 22 usd/day 8,897 9,010 -1.3% +48.8%

HANDYSIZE (38k)

SUPRAMAX (58k)

PANAMAX (82k)

CHARTERING 6

DRY BULK FFAS (Baltic Forward Assessments)


10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20

1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

VLCC Suezmax Aframax

-5,000

10,000

25,000

40,000

55,000

70,000

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

TD19 Aframax Med-Med (usd/day)

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75,000

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31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

TD6 Suexmax BSea-Med (usd/day)

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120,000

180,000

240,000

300,000

360,000

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

TD3C VLCC MEG-Far East (usd/day)VLCC Unit 31-Jan 24-Jan W-o-W Y-o-Y

TD1 MEG-USG ws 35.91 47.23 -24.0% +56.9%

TD1 MEG-USG usd/day 11,223 24,681 -54.5% +369%

TD2 MEG-Spore ws 55.08 80.29 -31.4% +12.4%

TD3C MEG-China ws 54.17 78.96 -31.4% +12.4%

TD3C MEG-China usd/day 28,409 55,933 -49.2% +42.3%

TD15 WAF-China ws 57.88 78.42 -26.2% +16.4%

Avg. VLCC TCE usd/day 19,816 40,307 -50.8% +151.0%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 49,000 49,000 +0.0% +36.1%

SUEZMAX TD6 BSea-Med ws 113.61 137.67 -17.5% +18.0%

TD6 BSea-Med usd/day 42,263 58,360 -27.6% +63.4%

TD20 WAF-Cont ws 98.18 130.23 -24.6% +37.4%

MEG-EAST ws 110.00 130.00 -15.4% +29.4%

TD23 MEG-Med ws 49.29 77.47 -36.4% +26.4%

Avg. Suezmax TCE usd/day 39,206 56,108 -30.1% +84.4%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 35,000 35,000 +0.0% +20.7%

AFRAMAX TD7 NSea-Cont ws 117.50 158.33 -25.8% +12.5%

TD7 NSea-Cont usd/day 24,575 50,473 -51.3% +51.9%

TD17 Baltic-UKC ws 98.61 134.72 -26.8% +12.7%

TD17 Baltic-UKC usd/day 28,063 48,792 -42.5% +27.4%

TD19 Med-Med ws 89.44 142.39 -37.2% -15.5%

TD19 Med-Med usd/day 11,130 35,444 -68.6% -29.7%

TD8 Kuwait-China ws 121.88 142.78 -14.6% +18.5%

TD8 Kuwait-China usd/day 16,626 22,273 -25.4% +50.3%

TD9 Caribs-USG ws 121.25 316.56 -61.7% -21.1%

TD9 Caribs-USG usd/day 19,688 90,973 -78.4% -28.3%

Avg. Aframax TCE usd/day 19,764 44,764 -55.8% +10.1%

1 Year TC Period usd/day 27,000 27,500 -1.8% +42.1%

CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKET

CHARTERING 7

TANKER

A sort of a perfect storm in thecrude market: force majeureevents in Libya, Chinese New Yearholidays, the outbreak ofcoronavirus and COSCO shipsdelisted by OFAC.Lavera/Fos was finally operationalfor most of the week with just oneday of strike expected for nextweek.VLCC rates were in free fall during

the week with MEG-F East ratesfixed below 270@55 and USG-Spore/China rates on subs at $7/8mln respectively.In the Suezmax market WAfr-UKC/Med rates were rumoured at130@100 and CPC rates wererumoured below 135@120 to Medand were fixed at $ 4.75 mln toKorea. Competition on theremaining cargoes led rates for

Basrah-Med down to [email protected] rates were nosedivingduring the week: in Med rateswere on subs at [email protected] from CPCand rates were rumoured below70@115 level for USG-TA. Rateswere softer in the East and in NWEurope with Baltic-UKC that wentdown to/below 100@100.



Northbound days 4.0 7.0 -42.9% -77.8%

Southbound days 3.0 5.0 -40.0% -83.3%


TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) ws 82.50 96.75 -14.7% -35.6%

TC1 MEG-Japan ( 7 5 k ) usd/day 6,023 9,248 -34.9% -72.5%

TC8 MEG-UKC ( 6 5 k ) usd/mt 26.00 26.92 -3.4% -3.9%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) ws 92.61 95.06 -2.6% -24.6%

TC5 MEG-Japan ( 5 5 k ) usd/day 6,164 5,408 +14.0% -56.2%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) ws 138.89 163.89 -15.3% +6.4%

TC2 Cont-USAC ( 3 7 k ) usd/day 12,776 16,636 -23.2% +24.3%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) ws 150.71 183.57 -17.9% +50.7%

TC14 USG-Cont ( 3 8 k ) usd/day 15,705 21,317 -26.3% +199.1%

TC9 Baltic-UKC ( 2 2 k ) ws 188.21 188.93 -0.4% -4.9%

TC6 Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 166.88 160.44 +4.0% +2.0%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) ws 173.50 179.83 -3.5% -10.3%

TC7 Spore-ECAu ( 3 0 k ) usd/day 14,700 14,636 +0.4% -16.5%

TC11 SK-Spore ( 4 0 k ) usd/day 4,987 5,559 -10.3% -56.4%

MR Pacific Basket usd/day 11,157 15,846 -29.6% -25.0%

MR Atlantic Basket usd/day 26,921 34,635 -22.3% +75.4%

LR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 25,000 25,500 -2.0% +31.6%

MR2 1 Year TC Period usd/day 16,250 16,500 -1.5% +16.1%

TD12 Cont-USG ( 5 5 k ) ws 150.00 158.13 -5.1% +25.6%

TD18 Baltic-UKC ( 3 0 K) ws 223.33 228.33 -2.2% -18.8%

BSea-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 287.5 300.0 -4.2% +9.5%

Med-Med ( 3 0 k ) ws 277.5 290.0 -4.3% +11.0%

DELAYS AT TURKISH STRAITS (for daylight restricted vessels)

CHARTERING 8

PRODUCT TANKER MARKETNot much activity for LR2s in theEast: a lack of demand broughtrates down to WS82.5 on MEG-Japan and around $1.8 mln forMEG-UKC; LR1 rates on MEG-Japanwere around WS95 and MEG-UKCrates around $1.7 mln.In Med there was a firmingtendency on Handysize: ratesremained around WS165 forCrossMed and around WS175 fromBSea, these values might raisefurther due to some uncoveredcargoes and possible bad weather.MR demand decreased pushing

rates down from Cont with Cont-US Atlantic Coast rates touchingWS145/140. Stable week onHandysize with good activity keptBaltic-UKC rates WS190/187.5 andCrossCont rates around WS180.Dropping trend also for MR on theother side of the Atlantic: USG-Cont lost around WS30 pointsclosing on Friday at WS150. Quietweek for dirty Handysize and MR inMed: the Handysize list wasbuilding up and CrossMed rateslost a few points down to 30@275level and rates from BSea touched

WS285 level. The MR list remainedtight so the BSea/Med rates wererumored at 45@225. In UKC themarket was a little busiercompared to the previous weekand CrossUKC rates were fixedaround 30@220/225 level. OnUKC-Med there was more than onefixture around 30@210/212.5level. The Panamax market wasagain quiet both from Med andUKC so UKC-TA rates remainedunchanged at 55@155 levels.

0

16,000

32,000

48,000

64,000

80,000

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

TC1 LR2 MEG-Japan (usd/day)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

MR Atlantic Basket (usd/day)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

MR Pacific Basket (usd/day)

10,000

14,000

18,000

22,000

26,000

30,000

Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20

1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

LR2 MR2



Comprehensive Index index #N/A 981 #N/A #N/A

Services:

Shanghai - North Europe usd/teu #N/A 969 #N/A #N/A

Shanghai - Mediterranean usd/teu #N/A 1,179 #N/A #N/A

Shanghai - WC USA usd/feu #N/A 1,545 #N/A #N/A

Shanghai - EC USA usd/feu #N/A 2,951 #N/A #N/A

Shanghai - Dubai usd/teu #N/A 1,126 #N/A #N/A

Shanghai - Santos usd/teu #N/A 1,967 #N/A #N/A

Shanghai - Singapore usd/teu #N/A 195 #N/A #N/A


ConTex index 425 426 -0.2% +9.3%

4250 teu (1Y, g’less) usd/day 13,440 13,459 -0.1% +49.5%



2500 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 9,660 9,733 -0.8% +6.9%

1700 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 8,388 8,398 -0.1% +15.1%

1100 teu (1Y, geared) usd/day 6,160 6,165 -0.1% -3.0%

FIXTURES

The ConTex dropped by 1 point lastweek to 425: every size in theConTex decreased, but only by a

very small amount, between 0.1%and 0.8%. There were manyprompt 1100 and 1700 teu units

available than any other size, butfeeder charter rates remainedstable.

CHARTERING 9

CONTAINERS

VHSS CONTAINERSHIP TIMECHARTER(source: Hamburg Shipbrokers’ Association)

CONTAINERIZED FREIGHT INDEX(source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange)

Vessel Name Built TEUs TEU@14 Gear Fixture Period Rates

Dimitra C 2002 6402 4845 no fixed to Hapag Lloyd 3 years $19,750/d

Ym Portland 2003 4444 3115 no fixed to Transworld 4/6 m $13,500/d

Em Corfu 2001 2556 1850 yes extended to GWF 19/21 m $10,200/d

Orea 2015 2190 1570 yes fixed to China Nav 3/6 m $12,000/d

Nordlily 2016 1756 1380 no fixed to Kmtc 2/3 m $11,250/d

Pacaya 2007 1118 700 yes extended to Cma Cgm 9/12 m $6,250/d

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

Gearless - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

4250 3500 2700

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

Geared - 1 YR TC Period (usd/day)

2500 1700 1100

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

24/1/19 24/5/19 24/9/19 24/1/20

Shanghai Container Freight Index


31-Jan 24-Jan W-o-W Y-o-Y

USD/Euro 1.11 1.10 +0.2% -3.8%

Yen/USD 108.35 109.28 -0.9% -0.5%

SK Won/USD 1,192 1,167 +2.1% +7.1%

Ch Yuan/USD 6.91 6.94 -0.5% +3.2%

3 yrs 5 yrs 7 yrs 10 yrs 15 yrs 20 yrs

USD 1.37 1.36 1.41 1.50 1.61 1.67

Euro -0.35 -0.29 -0.20 -0.04 0.19 0.32

Libor USD Libor Euro Euribor Euro

6 Months 1.75 -0.38 -0.34

12 Months 1.81 -0.31 -0.28

Unit 01-Jan-20 M-o-M Y-o-Y

Capesize usd mln 48.0 -0.2% -1.9%

Ultramax usd mln 25.4 -0.2% -3.6%

Supramax usd mln 22.6 -0.5% -2.5%

VLCC usd mln 84.0 +0.0% +0.6%

LR2 Coated usd mln 45.6 -0.1% -2.4%

MR2 Coated usd mln 33.3 -0.0% -1.4%

The past week was extremelyquiet.Wilmar Shipping of Singapore hastaken over the construction of 2 xMR2, hulls 653 and 654 at Daesun,S. Korea. The two hulls are believedto be an older speculative order.Deliveries expected in 2021, theprices not reported.

NEWBUILDING REPORTED ORDERS

Type Size Built Yard Buyers Price Comment

Prod 50,000 2021 Daesun Wilmar Shipping n.a. 2 hulls taken over

SALE & PURCHASE 10

NEWBUILDINGS / FINANCE

INTEREST RATES

INTEREST RATE SWAPS

EXCHANGE RATES

INDICATIVE NEWBUILDING PRICES (CHINA)

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20

Newbuilding Prices (usd mln)

Ultramax LR2 MR2

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

USD/Euro Exchange

100

105

110

115

120

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

Yen/USD Exchange


SECONDHAND REPORTED SALES


Dry Bulk usd/ldt 385.8 386.7 -0.2% -7.6%

Tanker usd/ldt 391.7 392.1 -0.1% -7.9%


Capesize usd mln 32.8 33.2 -1.2% -10.7%

Kamsarmax usd mln 22.7 22.8 -0.4% +2.2%

Supramax usd mln 16.7 16.8 -0.7% -10.3%

VLCC usd mln 76.1 76.0 +0.1% +14.6%

Suezmax usd mln 53.0 53.0 +0.0% n.a.

Aframax usd mln 40.8 40.7 +0.1% +24.6%

MR Product usd mln 29.9 29.8 +0.2% +10.1%

BALTIC SECONDHAND ASSESSMENTS

SHIP RECYCLING ASSESSMENT

In the dry market, three Capesizeunits were reported sold during theweek. The modern “Aqua Vision”180,000 dwt built in 2011 at Dalianwas sold for $20 mln, back inDecember the “Gotia” 180,000 dwtbuilt in 2012 at SWS was done for $23mln. Two other vessels werereported: “Aquajoy” 171,000 dwtbuilt in 2003 at Sasebo was sold for$ 11.3 mln and “Norfolk” 164,000dwt built in 2002 at CSBC wasreported sold for $9.5 mln.Concerning PostPanamax, “OceanGarnet” 93,000 dwt built in 2010

by COSCO Dalian was sold at $11mln and “Ocean Sapphire” 93,000dwt built in 2012 by COSCO Dalianwas sold by the same owner at $13mln. In the Supramax segment aJapanese controlled unit “TritonValk” 56,000 dwt built in 2009 byMitsui was inviting for offers lastweek, it now seems the vessel issold to Greek buyers for $ 11.1mln. In the Handysize segment, aNorwegian controlled unit“Fantohlmen” 32,000 dwt built in2010 at Jiangsu Zhenjiang was soldfor $ 5.8 mln to Chinese

buyers (SS/DD due in August 2020).In the tanker market, the Suezmax“Filikon” 150,000 dwt built in 2002at Universal was sold for 20.8 mln.At the end of 2019 “Iskmati Spirit”165,000 dwt built in 2003 byHyundai Samho was sold for $ 19.3mln. In the product market, twomodern MR tankers “Eco HolmbyHills” and “Eco Palm Desert”50,000 dwt built in 2018 byHyundai Vinashin were reportedsold for $35 mln each to JP Morganincluding five years TC back toClearlake.

From June 2019, the Panamax BSPA benchmark changed into a Kamsarmax (82,500mtdwt on 14.43m, LOA 229m, beam 32.25m, 97,000cbm grain) and the benchmark BSPAAframax specifications was amended to 115,000mt dwt and 44m beam

SALE & PURCHASE 11

SECONDHAND / DEMOLITION

20

25

30

35

40

45

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

Secondhand Values (usd mln)

Kamsarmax Aframax MR

350

400

450

500

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

Demolition Assessment (usd/ldt)

Dry Bulk Tanker


TYPE VESSEL NAME DWT BLT YARD BUYERS PRICE NOTE

Bulk Underdog 74,000 2006 Hudong Zhonghua Chinese buyers 8.1

Bulk Triton Valk 56,000 2009 Mitsui Greek buyers 11.1

Bulk Patrick Star 52,000 2004 Tsuneishi Indones ian buyer 7.8

Bulk Fantohlmen 32,000 2010 Jiangsu Zheni jiang Chinese buyers 5.8 SS/ DD due August 2020

Bulk Genco Charger 28,000 2005 Imabari Middle Eastern buyers 5.2

Crude Winson No 5 312,000 2001 Hyundai Turkish buyers 28

Crude Front Hakata 298,465 2002 Hitachi Greek buyers 35.5 DD due Apri l 2020

Crude Rhea 105,000 2002 Sumitomo UAE based buyers 13.7 SS/DD due 2020

Crude Meganisi 72,000 2004 Samsung 10.2

Crude Andimilos 72,000 2004 Samsung 10.2

Prod Eco Holmby Hills 49,000 2018 Hyundai Vinashin 35

Prod Eco Palm Desert 49,000 2018 Hyundai Vinashin 35

Undisclosed buyers en bloc sa le

C.of JP Morgan 5 yrs TC back to Clearlake

US pushing India to buy $5-6 blnmore farm goods to seal tradedealThe US wants India to buy at leastanother $5-6 bln worth ofAmerican farm goods if New Delhiwants to win reinstatement of akey US trade concession and sealwider pact. US President citedtrade barriers last year whenremoving India from itsGeneralized System of Preferences(GSP) programme that allowedzero tariffs on $5.6 bln of exportsto the US. In retaliation, Indiaslapped higher tariffs on morethan two dozens US products. Bothgovernments had hoped to workout a limited trade deal last year,but struggled to reach anagreement. While India hasoffered partial relief on medicaldevice price caps that have hurtAmerican pharma giants and a roll-back in tariffs on some US goods,Trump’s team wants a sweetenerof $5-6 bln in additional trade forUS goods to restore GSP privileges,three sources said.

Aiming to go green, Germancabinet backs coal exit by 2038The German cabinet backed plansto exit coal as an energy source by2038 as part of efforts byChancellor Angela Merkel’s rulingcoalition to protect the climate andrestore its green credentials. Thegovernment is spurring a shifttoward renewable energy sourcessuch as wind and solar power withexits from nuclear power by 2022and coal-fuelled power sources by2038. Germany aims to cutgreenhouse gas emissions to 55percent of its 1990 level by 2030.Designed to ensure Germany hitsthe 2030 target, the coal exit willbe accompanied by heavyinvestments in renewable energy.

Economy Minister Peter Altmaiersaid Germany’s transition to afossil-fuel free energy mix will belike undergoing “open-heartsurgery” as the car, steel andrenewable industries will need towork hard to stay competitive.

Trump increases tariffs onderivative steel, aluminiumproducts from some countriesUS President Donald Trump signeda proclamation increasing tariffs onderivative steel products by anadditional 25 percent and boostingduties on derivative aluminiumproducts by an additional 10percent. Trump said Argentina,Brazil, Canada, Mexico and SouthKorea are exempt from theadditional tariffs on derivativesteel products and Argentina,Australia, Canada and Mexico areexempt from the added duties onderivative aluminium articles.Trump has imposed tariffs onimported steel and aluminium tohelp boost US production, whichhe says is a national security issue.Since the imposition of tariffs ,imports of steel and aluminiumhave declined but imports ofderivative products, like steel nailsand aluminium cables haveincreased. He said the increasedtariffs would be effective on Feb 8.

Egypt preparing to add 330,000tonnes of grain silo capacityEgypt is about to add another330,000 tonnes to its grain silostorage capacity after havingexpanded it by 5.9 percent in2019, the cabinet said. Capacityrose to 3.6 mln tonnes at the endfor 2019 from 3.4 mln tonnes ayear earlier. “ The governmentaims to open five more silos, whichare ready now, with a (total)capacity of 330,000 tonnes,” the

cabinet said. “it has decided toerect 60 field silos with a totalstorage capacity of 300,000 tonnesalongside the development of oldsilos and an expansion of theircapacity to preserve theirsustainability,” it added.

India’s rice exports fall sharply assanctions delay payments fromIranReluctance among Indian tradersto ship premium basmati rice toIran as US sanctions hobble itsability to pay has contributed to asharp drop in overall exports fromthe world’s biggest supplier ofgrain trade, government sourcessaid. The grain is India’s biggestforeign exchange earning farmcommodity, with shipments worth$7.75 bln in 2018/19 fiscal year.Basmati rice exports to Iran, NewDelhi’s top buyer of the aromaticgrain, dropped to 600,000 tonnesin the eight months from 900,000a year earlier, but traders worriedabout delayed payments, have notsigned any new contracts withTehran in the past five days.Shipments are not expected tosignificantly pick up, with buyers inIran owing a record 20 bln rupees($281.41 mln) to India as US-imposed sanctions make it hard topay for imported commodities.Beside the drop in exports to Iran,non-basmati rice exports to Europehave also fallen, with trade andindustry officials citing higherpesticide residues in shipmentsfrom India as a factor behindreduced purchases from the EU.

Source: Refinitiv

COMMENT MARKET REPORT – WEEK 48/2019 12COMMODITIES 12MARKET REPORT – WEEK 05/2020

DRY BULK NEWS

Asian jet fuel demand slumps asairlines cancel flights after virusoutbreakAsian jet fuel demand is taking abeating from an outbreak of a flu-like virus in China that has ledairlines to cancel scores of flightsduring the peak Lunar New Yeartravel season. Jet fuel prices havedropped and refiners’ profits forthe product have slumped to thelowest in more than 2 years, whileindustry analysts are cutting their2020 forecasts for jet fuel andoverall oil demand. If airpassenger traffic in China were todecline by half in the first quarterof this year, it would likely lead toa 300,000 bpd decline in jetkerosene demand from China froma year ago, Barclays analyst said.“Market participants, already waryof slow demand growth from lastyear, are weighing the effects onglobal oil demand of lockdown inseveral cities in China, and likelyreduced travelling in the broaderAsia-Pacific region,” he said.

Libya’s NOC issues warning overimpact of oil blockadeThe head of Libya’s state oil firmwanted that if the internationalcommunity tolerates a blockade onthe country's oil industry it wouldbe complicit in ending the rule oflow in the country. The 10-dayblockade is the most extensive foryears shutting down fields andports in the east and south of Libyaand causing production to plunge262,000 bpd from around 1.2 mln.Production has gradually beenfalling since the blockade began asstorage capacity in Libya’s portsfills up, forcing Libya’s National OilCorp (NOC) to shut in productionupstream. The blockade is part of aconflict between eastern basedforces loyal to military commander

Khalifa Haftar and rival forcesaligned with the internationallyrecognized government in thecapital Tripoli. NOC chairman alsosaid the technical andenvironmental effects of theblockade could be disastrous,corroding pipelines and causingleaks for years.

Priced for perfection, oil slides onfears coronavirus will hit demandChina’s outbreak of novelcoronavirus has sent oil pricessharply lower as traders reassesswhether the country will be able togenerate the strong economicgrowth needed to rebalance themarket in 2020. China and itsneighbour India accounted formore than half of all incrementaloil consumption between 2013and 2018 so the economic growthof these two giant Asianeconomies is critical to the oilmarket. Both suffered a sharpeconomic slowdown in late 2018and through 2019 as a result ofslumping auto sales, tighteningcredit conditions and , in China’scase, trade conflict with the US. Ifthe coronavirus outbreak extendsthe economic slowdown in Chinaand the rest of Asia for a few extramonths, oil prices will need toremain lower for longer to inducea further corresponding slowdownin US shale output and anextension of production cuts by oil-exporting countries in the OPEC+group.

OPEC aims to extend oil outputcuts through June, alarmed byChina virusOPEC wants to extend current oiloutput cuts until at least June fromMarch, with the possibility ofdeeper reductions on the table ifoil demand In China is significantly

impacted by the spread of a newcorona virus. The quick slide in oilprices over the past few days.OPEC+, which includes Russia, hasbeen reducing oil supply tosupport prices, agreeing in Dec tohold back 1.7 mln bpd of outputuntil the end of Mar. This year,OPEC expects its world marketshare to fall further as outputbooms in non-OPEC rivals includingthe US, Brazil, Canada, Australia,Norway and Guyana while globaldemand is rising.

Liberia running low on gasolineafter reserves go missingLines to petrol pumped snakedacross Liberia’s capital Monroviaafter it emerged that West Africancountry was unexpectedly down toits last few days’ worth of gasoline.An error in the accounting of fuelsupplies in state-run tanks leftLiberia with 1.1 mln gallons of fuelthis week, a fraction of the 4.4 mlnthat the government thought ithad, Minister of Commerce andIndustry said. The mistake hasechoes of a saga involvingsuspected loss and then recoveryof $100 mln in cash destined forthe central bank in 2017 and 2018,and has critics bristling at whatthey see as chaotic leadershipunder President George Weah. Ithad also impact on Liberia’seconomy, already suffering fromhigh inflation and a depreciatingLiberian dollar. The crisis, wascaused by a discrepancy betweenimporters’ inventory figures andthe actual quantity of fuel instorage tanks managed by theLiberia Petroleum RefiningCompany.

Source: Refinitiv

COMMENT MARKET REPORT – WEEK 48/2019 13COMMODITIES 13MARKET REPORT – WEEK 05/2020

OIL & GAS NEWS

300

400

500

600

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

Wheat and Corn Prices (usd/t)

Corn Wheat

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

10/1/19 10/5/19 10/9/19 10/1/20

Steel Prices in China (rmb/t)

Rebar Plate

40

60

80

100

120

140

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

Iron Ore and Coal Prices (usd/t)

Steam Coal Iron Ore

40

50

60

70

80

90

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

Brent and WTI Oil Prices (usd/bbl)

Brent WTI

200

400

600

800

31/1/19 31/5/19 30/9/19 31/1/20

Bunker Prices @ Singapore (usd/t)

IFO 380 0.5% LSFO MGO


Wheat usd/t 547.5 566.3 -3.3% +4.8%

Corn usd/t 379.5 383.5 -1.0% +0.3%

Soybeans usd/t 872.5 894.8 -2.5% -4.9%

Palm Oil usd/t 645.9 720.9 -10.4% +15.1%


Iron Ore (Platts) usd/t 93.5 93.9 -0.3% +26.0%

Iron Ore @Tangshan rmb/t 700.0 706.0 -0.8% +21.5%

Rebar in China rmb/t 3,751 3,753 -0.1% -2.1%

Plate in China rmb/t 3,968 3,970 -0.1% -2.7%

HR Coil in China rmb/t 3,936 3,946 -0.3% +2.6%

CR Sheet in China rmb/t 4,461 4,459 +0.0% +3.8%


Steam @ Richards Bay usd/t 83.8 80.0 +4.8% -6.5%

Steam @ Newcastle usd/t 66.7 68.4 -2.5% -32.6%

Coking Coal Australia usd/t 146.0 149.0 -2.0% -28.4%


Crude Oil Brent usd/bbl 56.4 59.3 -5.0% -10.8%

Crude Oil WTI usd/bbl 51.7 52.9 -2.3% -6.9%

Crude Oil Dubai usd/bbl 59.7 62.8 -5.0% -2.5%

Nat Gas Henry Hub usd/mmbtu 1.85 1.94 -4.6% -31.5%

Gasoline Nymex usd/gal 1.50 1.48 +1.4% +2.7%

ICE Gasoil usd/t 497.5 523.0 -4.9% -14.0%

Naphtha Tokyo usd/t 483.1 551.4 -12.4% -5.0%

Jet-Kerosene Asia usd/bbl 65.4 76.0 -13.9% -13.4%


Rotterdam usd/t 292.5 310.0 -5.6% -21.7%

Fujairah usd/t 294.0 310.5 -5.3% -25.6%

Singapore usd/t 338.5 369.0 -8.3% -18.1%

Rotterdam usd/t 472.5 510.5 -7.4% n.a.

Fujairah usd/t 560.5 626.0 -10.5% n.a.

Singapore usd/t 572.5 627.5 -8.8% n.a.

Rotterdam usd/t 488.5 527.0 -7.3% -8.1%

Fujairah usd/t 671.5 713.5 -5.9% -7.3%

Singapore usd/t 580.0 642.0 -9.7% +0.8%

IFO

38

00

.5%

LSF

OM

GO

OIL & GAS

COAL

IRON ORE AND STEEL

AGRICULTURAL

BUNKER

COMMODITIES 14

PRICES


MARKET REPORT –WEEK 19/2019

NEWS

15

OFFICES AND CONTACTS

Legal notice: The information and data contained in this presentation is derived from a variety of sources, own and third party’s, public and private, and is provided for

information purposes only. Whilst banchero costa has used reasonable efforts to include accurate and up-to-date information in this presentation, banchero costa

makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy of any information contained herein or accuracy or reasonableness of conclusions drawn there from.

Although some forward-looking statements are made in the report, banchero costa cannot in any way guarantee their accuracy or reasonableness.

banchero costa assumes no liabilities or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content of this report.

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Documents

BANCOSTA Weekly Market Report - Hellenic Shipping News