Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update - banchero costa

banchero costa

Sep 2018 – Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update 1

banchero costa

banchero costa research

www.bancosta.com ; [email protected]

Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update(a review of deliveries, demo, orders, and rates)

September 2018

banchero costa


Fleet Developments(deliveries, demolitions, orders)

banchero costa


Our size definitions for bulkers:

• VLOC 220,000+ dwt

• Capesize 120,000-219,999 dwt

• Post-Panamax 85,000-119,999 dwt

• Panamax 65,000-84,999 dwt

• Supramax 40,000-64,999 dwt

• Handysize 20,000-39,999 dwt

(note: for all sizes, includes both general purpose bulk carriers and ore carriers, but

excludes OBOs and specialist vessels such as cement carriers, con-bulkers, woodchip

carriers and self-unloaders)

banchero costa


In 2017, we recorded the delivery of 427 dry bulk vessels over 20,000 dwt, for a total of 37.1 mln dwt. These included:13 VLOCs (3.4 mln dwt), 59 Capesizes (11.6 mln dwt), 13 Post-Panamaxes (1.2 mln dwt), 100 Panamaxes (8.1 mln dwt),161 Supramaxes (9.8 mln dwt) and 81 Handysizes (3.0 mln dwt). After assuming delivery slippages, deliveries in 2018could come in at a lower level of around 270 vessels equivalent to 28 mln dwt.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

un

its

Dry Bulk Deliveries + Orderbook in No. of Units - Annual (September 2018 ; only units over 20,000 dwt ; in units ; assuming 30% slippage)

Handysize Supramax Panamax Post-Panamax Capesize VLOC

banchero costa


In August 2018, we recorded the delivery of 13 units over 20,000 dwt, for a total of 1.8 mln dwt. These included: 3VLOCs (1.05 mln dwt), 1 Capesize (0.21 mln dwt), 1 Panamax (0.08 mln dwt), 5 Supramaxes (0.31 mln dwt) and 3Handysizes (0.11 mln dwt). In the first 8 months of 2018, 190 units for a total of 19.4 mln dwt were delivered, comparedto 367 units amounting to 31.6 mln dwt delivered the same period in 2017.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

08/2015 02/2016 08/2016 02/2017 08/2017 02/2018 08/2018

un

its

Dry Bulk Deliveries in No. of Units - Monthly(September 2018 ; only units over 20,000 dwt ; in units)


banchero costa


In August 2018, only 1 Handysize of 40,000 dwt was scrapped. In the first 8 months of 2018, 32 vessels amounting to 3.1mln dwt were demolished, compared to 158 units amounting to 10.5 mln dwt scrapped the same period in 2017.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

08/2015 02/2016 08/2016 02/2017 08/2017 02/2018 08/2018

un

its

Dry Bulk Demolitions in No. of Units - Monthly(September 2018 ; only units over 20,000 dwt ; in units)


banchero costa


In August 2018, 15 new orders were reported placed for a total of 1.5 mln dwt, comprising of 2 Capesizes (0.42 mlndwt), 7 Post-Panamaxes (0.65 mln dwt), 4 Panamaxes (0.33 mln dwt), and 2 Supramaxes (0.13 mln dwt). In the first 8months of 2018, 120 new orders totalling 13.6 mln dwt were reported, compared to 81 units amounting to 9.5 mln dwtordered the same period in 2017.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

08/2015 02/2016 08/2016 02/2017 08/2017 02/2018 08/2018

un

its

Dry Bulk Newbuilding Orders in No. of Units - Monthly(September 2018 ; only units over 20,000 dwt ; in units)


banchero costa


Charter and S&P Markets(rates, prices, sales volume)

banchero costa


In August 2018, the Capesize market averaged around 25,000 usd/day, up 4.5 percent month-on-month and 56.0percent year-on-year. Capesize rates have been falling the past few weeks due to a build-up of tonnage and lack of Brazilcargoes.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

USD

/day

Baltic Exchange Capesize TC Average - Seasonality(source: the baltic exchange ; daily data ; USD/day)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

banchero costa


In August 2018, Panamax rates averaged around 11,900 usd/day, down 0.4 percent month-on-month but up 20.0percent year-on-year. Rates have generally remained supported with the strong Cape market, and as coal trade in theNorth Atlantic and to India strengthened. However, trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue to threaten toweigh down Panamax rates.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000


USD

/day

Baltic Exchange Panamax TC Average - Seasonality(source: the baltic exchange ; daily data ; USD/day)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

banchero costa


In August 2018, Supramax rates averaged around 11,700 usd/day, up 5.6 percent month-on-month and 30.4 percentyear-on-year.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000


USD

/day

Baltic Exchange Supramax TC Average - Seasonality(source: the baltic exchange ; daily data ; USD/day)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

banchero costa


In August 2018, Handysize rates averaged around 8,000 usd/day, down 2.8 percent month-on-month but up 15.0percent year-on-year.

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000


USD

/day

Baltic Exchange Handysize TC Average - Seasonality(source: the baltic exchange ; daily data ; USD/day)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

banchero costa


Since reaching a bottom in February 2016, period rates for Capesizes have been rising steadily, with levels currentlyaround 37 percent higher year-on-year. Rates for the other segments have been flattening the past few months.

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

08/2015 02/2016 08/2016 02/2017 08/2017 02/2018 08/2018

USD

/day

Dry Bulk - 1-Year Timecharter Rates - last 36 months (estimated monthly averages ; in USD/day)

Handysize Supramax Panamax Capesize

banchero costa


Newbuilding prices stayed flat month-on-month in August 2018. Prices remained up between 12-20 percent year-on-year.

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

08/2015 02/2016 08/2016 02/2017 08/2017 02/2018 08/2018

USD

mln

Dry Bulk Newbuilding Prices - last 36 months(indicative average ; monthly data ; in USD mln)


banchero costa


In August 2018, secondhand values for Capesizes and Supramaxes increased 2 percent and 1 percent respectivelycompared with the previous month, while the other sizes remained flat. Secondhand prices are currently between 13-15percent higher year-on-year.

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

08/2015 02/2016 08/2016 02/2017 08/2017 02/2018 08/2018

USD

mln

Dry Bulk 5 Year Old Secondhand Prices - last 36 months(indicative average ; monthly data ; in USD mln)


banchero costa


In August 2018, there were 44 reported secondhand sales, including 13 Capesizes, 1 Post-Panamax, 5 Panamaxes, 15Supramaxes, and 10 Handysizes. In the first 8 months of 2018, 393 units were reported sold, of which 152 wereSupramaxes, 95 were Handysizes, and 88 were Panamaxes.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

08/2017 10/2017 12/2017 02/2018 04/2018 06/2018 08/2018

un

its

Dry Bulk Reported Secondhand Sales in No. of Units (September 2018 ; only units over 20,000 dwt ; monthly data ; in units)


banchero costa


Summary(key figures for fleet, rates, and prices)

banchero costa


Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders

VLOC 3 0 0 17 1 9 13 7 32

Capesize 1 0 2 20 12 26 59 22 48

Post-Panamax 0 0 7 9 0 9 13 2 4

Panamax 1 0 4 42 4 30 100 44 41

Supramax 5 0 2 58 10 32 161 68 29

Handysize 3 1 0 44 5 14 81 48 29

Total 13 1 15 190 32 120 427 191 183

Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders Deliveries Demolitions New Orders

VLOC 1.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.2 3.0 3.4 2.0 10.5

Capesize 0.2 0.0 0.4 4.0 1.9 4.8 11.6 3.7 9.8

Post-Panamax 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.8 1.2 0.2 0.4

Panamax 0.1 0.0 0.3 3.4 0.3 2.5 8.1 3.2 3.3

Supramax 0.3 0.0 0.1 3.6 0.4 2.0 9.8 3.2 1.8

Handysize 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.2 0.5 3.0 1.3 0.9

Total 1.8 0.0 1.5 19.4 3.1 13.6 37.1 13.5 26.7

TC Average NB price 2nd Hand price

(USD/day) (USD mln) 5 y.o. (USD mln)

Capesize 25,000 + 5% + 56% 48.3 + 0% + 12% 36.3 + 2% + 15%

Panamax 11,900 - 0% + 20% 29.5 + 0% + 13% 21.9 + 0% + 13%

Supramax 11,700 + 6% + 30% 27.5 + 0% + 20% 18.5 + 1% + 15%

Handysize 8,000 - 3% + 15% 24.5 + 0% + 17% 15.8 + 0% + 13%

In units

In million dwt

Aug 2018

M-o-M Y-o-Y M-o-M Y-o-Y M-o-M Y-o-Y

Aug 2018 Jan-Aug 2018 2017

Jan-Aug 2018 2017Aug 2018

banchero costa


address: via pammatone, 2 16121 genoa (italy)

phone: + 39-010-[5631-1]

dry - capesize 5631-200 [email protected] insurance 5631-700 [email protected]

dry - panamax 5631-200 [email protected] p&i 5631-770 [email protected]

dry - handy 5631-200 [email protected] ship finance 5631-556 [email protected]

dry - operation 5631-200 [email protected] research 5631-558 [email protected]

tankers 5631-300 [email protected] agency 5631-600 [email protected]

containers 5631-515 [email protected] yachting 5631-764 [email protected]

s&p 5631-500 [email protected] accounting 5631-400 [email protected]

bancosta uk bancosta monaco bancosta sa medioriental

london monte carlo geneva dubai

phone: +44-207-398-1870 phone: +377-97-707-497 phone: +41-22-737-2626 phone: +971-4-360-5598

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

bancosta oriente bancosta oriente bancosta oriente japan rep.office

singapore hong kong beijing tokyo

phone: +65-6327-6862 phone: +852-2865-1535 phone: +86-10-8453-4993 phone: +81-362-688-958

bancosta.oriente

@bancosta.com.hk

bancosta.oriente

@bancosta.com.hk

[email protected] [email protected]

web site : http://www.bancosta.com/

this report has been prepared by banchero costa research

for any enquiries please contact us on +6563276861 or email [email protected]

banchero costa & c. s.p.a.

In addition to regular market reports, banchero costa research recognize the need for bespoke reports & analysis, tailored to specific client needs.

Reports can be produced on a wide range of shipping markets including dry bulk, tankers, gas & containers. In addition in-depth reports can be produced on specific commodity markets.

To discuss individual requirements please contact:

Phone: +65 6327 6863

Email: [email protected]

banchero costa network

banchero costa


banchero costa & c. s.p.a.banchero costa & c. s.p.a.

head office: via pammatone, 2 16121 genoa (italy)

phone: + 39-010-[5631-1]

dry - capesize 5631-200 [email protected] research 5631-535 [email protected]

dry - panamax 5631-200 [email protected] ship finance 5631-556 [email protected]

dry - handy 5631-200 [email protected] insurance 5631-700 [email protected]

dry - operation 5631-200 [email protected] p&i 5631-770 [email protected]

tankers 5631-300 [email protected] yachting 5631-764 [email protected]

containers 5631-515 [email protected] agency 5631-600 [email protected]

s&p 5631-500 [email protected] ship repair 5631-626 [email protected]

offshore 5631-550 [email protected] towage/salvage 5631-626 [email protected]

bancosta uk bancosta monaco bancosta sa medioriental

london monte carlo geneva dubai

phone: +44-207-398-1870 phone: +377-97-707-497 phone: +41-22-737-2626 phone: +971-4-360-5598

[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

bancosta oriente bancosta oriente bancosta oriente japan rep.office singapore hong kong beijing tokyo

phone: +65-6327-6862 phone: +852-2865-1535 phone: +86-10-8453-4993 phone: +81-362-688-958

[email protected]

[email protected]

[email protected] [email protected]

web site : http://www.bancosta.com Linkedin: linkedin.com/company/banchero-costa

Twitter: twitter.com/banchero_costa

banchero costa network

Legal notice: The information and data contained in this presentation is derived from a variety of sources, own and third party’s, public and private, and is provided for information purposes only.

Whilst banchero costa has used reasonable efforts to include accurate and up-to-date information in this presentation, banchero costa makes no warranties or representations as to the accuracy

of any information contained herein or accuracy or reasonableness of conclusions drawn there from.

Although some forward-looking statements are made in the report, banchero costa cannot in any way guarantee their accuracy or reasonableness.

banchero costa assumes no liabilities or responsibility for any errors or omissions in the content of this report.

Documents

Dry Bulk Monthly Fleet Update - banchero costa