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Arctische Olie en Gas: Nut of
Noodzaak?
Lucia van Geuns
Leiden, 16 Maart 2013
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
Attenborough visited both the Arctic and Antarctic in the making of the Frozen Planet. He witnessed not only the melting of Arctic sea ice, but the calving of icebergs from
glaciers in Greenland and Antarctica which contributes to sea level rise.
Frozen Planet On Thin Ice
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
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Deze presentatie
• Introductie
• Duurzame energie veiligheid
• Arctische olie en gas
• Afsluitende opmerkingen
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
The Arctic: some facts
• The Arctic ocean:
– 14 million km²
– max. depth 5160 m
• No circum-arctic treaty system other than the UN International Law of the Seas (UNCLOS)
• No country has the jurisdiction over the Arctic Ocean
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
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Under current international law, the countries ringing the
Arctic - Russia, Canada, the U.S., Norway, and Denmark (which owns Greenland) - are limited to a 200-mile
economic zone around their coasts.
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
Arctic sea ice set to hit record low within days
Aug 2012
The ice will bounce back once winter sets in, but the record lows are telling indicators that climate
change is radically transforming the Arctic…
“Arctic sea ice may have
passed crucial tipping point..”
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
Source: http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
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July 8: ~ 40 percent of the ice
sheet had undergone thawing at
or near the surface
July 12: the melting dramatically
accelerated and ~ 97 percent of
the ice sheet surface had
thawed
Satellites See Unprecedented Greenland Ice
Sheet Surface Melt – July 2012
“Melting events of this type occur about once every 150 years on average with the last one happening in 1889. If we continue to observe melting events like this in upcoming years, it will be worrisome."
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
July 8 July 12
Canada claims the route to be national waters, while the
United States and the European Union demand free
passage (Graphic: NASA)
Northwest passage
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
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De energie markt
• Afhankelijk van fossiele brandstoffen
• Toenemende mondiale vraag
• Reserves geconcentreerd
• Emissies broeikasgassen hoog
• Transport sector bijna volledig afhankelijk
van olie en groeiende!
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
0
20
40
60
80
100
Ontwikkeling van de energie vraag
Percent
Global Demand By Fuel
1800 1900 2000 1850 1950
Biomass
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Other Renewables
Bron: Smil, Energy Transitions; ExxonMobil
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
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Twee werelden
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
OESO energie vraag
North America
Europe OECD
Rest of OECD
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Niet OESO energie vraag
China
India
Middle East
Rest of Non OECD
Latin America
Africa
Russia/Caspian
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
Source: Exxon, 2012
2012
2012
Toenemende vraag naar energie
World Population
Billion
1800 2040 1900 2000
Source: United Nations; ExxonMobil
0
3
6
9
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
Beinvloed door bevolkingsgroei en economische groei
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Energie oplossingen
Minder
CO2 uitstoot
Meer aanbod
Meer efficiency
Technologie
Bron: Exxon Mobil 2008
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
Wereld Energievraag 1980 – 2030
Bron: Referentie scenario IEA World Energy Outlook, 2008
De wereld energievraag groeit met meer dan 40% in de volgende 25 jaar, het absoluut verbruik van kolen en gas groeit het hardst
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mto
e
Other renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass
Gas
Coal
Oil
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
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Conventional Crude and Condensate + Oil Sands (BBO)
North America
Europe
~100
Asia Pacific
~75
Latin America
~125
Africa
~50
Russia/Caspian
~325
Middle East
~10
~150
~125
~825 ~400
OPEC Non-OPEC
~1,050 ~1,100 Oil Sands
Remaining Oil Resource – 2010
Includes Undiscovered and Future Growth Resource
Sources: USGS, Oil & Gas Journal, PIRA, IEA, Exxon Mobil, 2010
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
Beperkte toegang tot oliereserves voor
buitenlandse directe investeringen
Private partijen
hebben tot meer
dan de helft van
de resterende
oliereserves geen
toegang Bron: IEA, World investment outlook 2003
Access to Oil Reserves
National
companies only
(Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait, Mexico)
35%
Limited access -
National
companies
22%
Production
sharing
12%
Concession
21%
Iraq
10%
1,032 billion barrels
Access to much of the world’s remaining oil reserves is restrictedClingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
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IOCs: Zoeken naar alternatieven
Source: IEA, Shell
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
Onzekerheden t.a.v. voorzieningszekerheid
• Meer import uit politiek en economisch instabiele
producerende landen
• Concurrentie met andere consumerende landen
• Knelpunten in handelsroutes
• Beperkte binnenlandse produktie van duurzame
energie bemoeilijkt diversificatie naar alternatieve
brandstoffen
• Beperkingen aan energie beleidsinstrumenten
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
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0
5
10
15
20
North America*
Europe
Asia Pacific
Latin America
Africa
Russia/ Caspian
Middle East
1000 TCF
Conventioneel gas
Unconventioneel gas
0.8
2.6
1.4
1.3
5.6
5.8
2.3
Wereld gas voorkomens
Bronnen: EIA, USGS, NPC, Exxon Mobil, 2010; exclusief al geproduceerd gas
• Wereld: ~175 jaar reserves voor huidig gebruik
• Grote unconventionele gas voorkomens
Wereld
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
Arctic Oil and Gas Resources
Recent publications:
• Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP): Arctic Oil and Gas 2007
• Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA)/US Geological Survey study 2009
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
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Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
• CARA/USGS 2009 appraisal: 530 Billion bbl of oil equivalent undiscovered resources (North of the Artic Circle; no hydrates, no bitumen, no oil shales)
• > 5% world oil reserves; > 20% known gas reserves in the Arctic; 25% undiscovered oil & gas
• Plans for new pipelines and development are underway:
– Russia: growing activity Timan-Pechora, W. Siberia provinces and the Kara and Barents seas
– Canada: Mackenzie Valley pipeline constructiondevelopment Mackenzie Delta and Beaufort Sea
– Alaska: gas pipeline from North Slope; expansion offshore oil activity
– Greenland, Iceland, Faroe Islands, Arctic Russia exploration etc
The Arctic: The last great, almost unexplored,
frontier area on the planet
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
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Arctic Oil and Gas production
Current Arctic production (AMAP area)
~10% world’s oil
~25% of world’s gas
Most from the Russian Arctic!
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
AMAP, 2007
Oil/Gas production Areas in the Arctic, AMAP 2007, Pipelines + Production areas
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
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Offshore
arctic
basins and
exploration
hotspots
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
• 95% of Arctic mineral resources are within agreed national boundaries
• biggest of territorial disputes is between US and Canada (N-W
passage)
Arctic Conflics?
“..the development of the Arctic is likely to be
uncommonly harmonious..”
1.Profit motive
2.High cost of operations
3.No excuse to intervene in the region’s affair
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Consequences of increasing temperature
• Melting of the sea-ice; unpredictable sea-ice situation
• Shifting of the seasons
• Instable, unpredictable weather
• Thawing of offshore permafrost makes ocean floor instable
• Subsidence causes risks for leaking of pipelines
• Damage to the vulnerable ecosystems
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
Source: L. Hacquebord, Arctic Centre, 2012
Concluding Remarks
• The Arctic will stay an extreme and harsh environment
for mineral exploitation
• Offshore oil and gas exploration and production will
have impact on the pristine Arctic ecosystems
• Arctic oil and gas ventures will have influence on
indigenous communities living along the coast
• In case of disasters there is no infrastructure and
cleaning up system; no search and rescue system
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
Source: L. Hacquebord, Arctic Centre, 2012
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The Arctic: robust risk management essential!
• Potential rewards comes with huge technical (climate,
remoteness) and commercial challenges (costs,
reputation)
• Operations under the highest-possible standards to
protect the vulnerable environment
• Remoteness means mobilisation of logistics and
services across long distances
• Explorers need to contract two rigs to ensure back up
for relief wells in an emergency
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
Investment in science and research (governments, companies)
is essential to close knowledge gaps, reduce uncertainties and
manage risks (ref. Lloyd’s, 2012)
Major geopolitical issues are unresolved
across the Arctic Basin
Access: issues of access and right of passage
Seaward Claims: claims of seaward ownership etc
Boundary Disputes: many boundary disputes still exist
Venue: is the Law of the Sea the venue to resolve
geopolitical issues; are other international frameworks
required
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep
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www.clingendael.nl/ciep
Clingendael International Energy Programme www.clingendael.nl/ciep