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8/2/2019 Americas Energy Choices 2012 Edition
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hitePaPer
www.AmericanSecurityProject.org 1100 New York Avenue, NW Suite 710W Washington, DC
Aeca Eeg Chce
Adew Hllad2012 Ed
In Brief:
Americaneedsmoreenergyofallsorts,butespeciallyelectricity.
By2035,U.S.electricitydemandwillincreaseby25%.
By2050,allpresentU.S.electricity-generationpowerplantswillneedtobereplaced.
Wehavetomakechoicesonwhatenergymixweneedinthefuturethepresentsituationisgeopolitically,environmentally,andeconomicallyunsustainable.
Americasenergychoicesshouldbeconsideredinlightofthreeconcerns:
- Energy Security
- Economic Stability
- Environmental Sustainability
erearethreebroadcategoriesofenergytochoosefrom:FossilFuels,NuclearEnergy,andRenewablepower.Withineachofthesecategoriesareabroadrangeofchoices,eachofwhichwillhavepositivesandnegativesineachofthethreeareas.
efollowingpaperlaysoutthefacts,matchingthe10mostimportantenergychoicestotheconcernstoallowpolicymakerstomakeinformeddecisions.
Andrew Holland is the Senior Fellow for Energy and Climate at the American Security Project.
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Aeca Eeg Chce
Thirty-sevenyearsago,PresidentRichardNixonannouncedanationalgoalthatbytheyear1980,theUniteStateswillnotbedependentonanyothercountryfortheenergyweneedtoprovideourjobs,toheatouhomes,andtokeepourtransportationmoving.1
Sincethis1974StateoftheUnionaddress,giveninthemidstofanembargoofoilexportstotheUnitedStatesandallies,somesortofenergyindependencehasbeenastatedpolicyofeveryPresidentialadministration.Regardlessofthrhetoric,however,theUnitedStateshasnotcomeanywherenearenergyindependence.
Today,energypolicyisbackatthecenterofnationalaairs.Partlythisisbecauseonceagain,forthesecondtimeinthryears,theglobalpriceofoilhasjumpedtonear-recordterritory.
eurgencyoftheenergydebatetoday,however,isaboutmorethansimplygasolineprices.EnvironmentalconcernsarbringingtheverybasisofAmericasenergysystemintoquestion:theevidencethathumanfossilfuelusecontributesclimatechangebecomesmoreunequivocaleveryday.
Americasforeignpolicyisconstrainedbyquestionsofenergysecurity,assupportfordemocraticrevolutionsacrosstArabworldhastobebalancedbyapreferenceforstabilityinthemajoroilproducingnationsaroundthePersianGu
EnergyinfrastructureacrosstheUnitedStatesisshowingitsageasthepowergridstrugglestomeetdemandandpowplantsnearretirement.Meanwhile,advancesinnewtechnologiesholdthepromiseofplentifulenergyrequiringlittlenofuel;butsignicantresearchfundingisrequired.
Policymakerswillhavetoaddressthesechallengeswhilealsoprovidingfora15%increaseintotalenergydemanacrosstheUnitedStates,includinga25%increaseinelectricitydemandby2035.Allofthiswillhappeninawor
where total energy demands are expected to increase
by50%,drivenbyunprecedentedeconomicgrowthindevelopingcountriessuchasBrazil,China,andIndia.
esechallengesaresignicantbutnoneofthemareaquestionofyesorno,either/or,doordonot.Instead,how the United States meets those challenges willrequirechoicesstrategicdecisionsaboutinfrastructureinvestment, government policy, researchfunding,andevenforeignpolicy.
esechallengescannotbemetbyslogansorpoliticalsound-bites.eseareimportantdecisionsrequiringaninformedandwide-rangingdebatenottrenchwarfareoversmallissues.etimeforrhetoricandposturingonenergyissuesisswiftlyapproachingitsend.etimeforaction,ortheconsequencesofinaction,isapproaching.
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2011, http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/MT_intl.cf
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Assessing Americas 21stCentury Energy Choices
Today,theUnitedStatesfacesaseriesofchoicesthatwilldeterminehowitseconomyispoweredtomeettheneedsofthe21stcentury.HowAmericachoosestoreplaceandexpanditsenergysupplywillaectthehealthoftheworlds
environment,Americasnationalsecurity,andthewell-beingoftheU.S.economy.However,thepoliticaldebatedoesnothaveaneectivevocabularytodiscussthecostsandbenetsofdierentchoices.
Policymakerstoooftenmakeargumentsaboutenergybasedonwhichwillsellthebestinordertotadecisionalreadymade.Instead,policymakersshouldlookattheoptionsandweighthetradeosforeach.Becausetherearetradeosdecisionmakersshouldnotpretendtherearesilverbulletsthatwillautomaticallybringcheap,clean,domesticenergytoall.
ispaperwillattempttooutlineamatrixofpolicychoicesforthegovernment,utilities,andtheprivatesectortoconsider.
ItwilllookattendierentoptionsforhowtofuelAmericaseconomy,eachofwhichwillbeconsideredinlightofthreeconcerns:
(1) Energy Security;
(2) Economic Stability; and
(3) Environmental Sustainability.
Sometimesthesetermsaresimplybuzzwords,soitisimportanttospecicallydeneeach.
Energy Security
Analytically,energysecurityisdiculttoquantify.PresidentJimmyCarterdenedenergysecurityina1977speechasindependenceofeconomicandpoliticalactionininternationalaairs. 2eUnitedStatesshouldbeableto
deneitsinterestsoverseasindependentlyfromhowitusesenergydomestically.
Importantly,energysecuritydoesnotmeanenergyindependenceinthesensethatalloftheenergyusedintheUnitedStatescomesfromwithinitsborderswithoutinternationaltrade.isisneitherobtainablenordesirableinaglobalized
world.Inaddition,energysecuritydoesnotdependonthepercentageofsupplythatisimported.Inaworldofgloballytradedcommodities,itisnolongerpossibletobetrulyenergyindependent:evendomesticallyproducedenergysourcesaresubjecttouctuationsinglobalcommoditymarkets.
Sincetheoilpricecrisesofthe1970s,theriskofabsolutesupplyshortageshasbeenreducedsignicantly.ecreationoftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)anditsrequirementthatallmembercountriesholdoilstockscapableof
replacing90daysworthofimportsactsasabueragainstdisruptionsinoilsupplies.eU.S.StrategicPetroleumReservecansubstitutefor,onaverage,75daysworthofoilimportsasofJune2011,andprivatelyheldreservesaccountfortheadditionaldaysofimports.3
Althoughspeculatorsaresometimesblamedforinatingprices,thedeepeningofinternationalfuturestradingmarketsallowspricesignalstogivewarningsofimpendingsupplyanddemandimbalances.Today,then,fortheUnitedStates,energysecurityconcernsarenolongeraboutphysicaldisruptionsinsupply.eseconcernsstemfromthepossibility
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thatactionsinforeignpolicywillleadtopriceincreasescausingundueharmtoeconomicgrowth.
Keepingthisismind,thispaperdenesenergysecurityastheabilityforacountrytoactinitsforeignpolicyindependenofhowitusesenergydomestically.
Obtainingenergysecurityactuallydoesnotcomefromincreaseddomesticproductionalone:itcomesfromexibilicompetition,andredundancy.Ifasourceofenergysupplyiseasilyreplacedbyeitheradierentfueltypeoradiere
source,thenacountryisinsulatedfromsupplyshocks.U.S.foreignpolicyshouldbedeterminedbyitsinterests,nothowitgeneratesitsenergy.
Economic StabilityItseemsclearthatalldecisionsaboutenergypolicymustconsiderprice.eUnitedStates,though,isoneofthemoenergyintensivedevelopedeconomies,whichmakesitseconomyvulnerabletopriceuctuations.
Lowpricesattheexpenseoflittlebueragainstuctuationsinpricebothupanddowncanbemoreharmfulthahigherpricethatisstableoverthelong-term.Upwardpriceshocksharmconsumersbyactingasatax,butdownwapriceshockscanharmproducersaswellbyundermininglong-terminvestments.
Whenpricesarelow,consumersareencouragedintodependency,onlyincreasingtheeconomicdamageifpricesspiupwards.ebestexampleofthisisthattoday,Americandriversarefeelingthepainofgasoline-dependencythatyeoflowpricescreated.
Whendecisionmakersaredeliberatingaboutenergychoices,therelativepriceofeachdecisionisacriticalcomponeHowever,short-termfuelpricescannotbethereasonthatlong-termdecisionsaremade.Whendeliberatingonaenergychoice,itseconomicstabilitydenedashowenergyaectsthehealthofthecountryseconomyoverthelotermshouldbeanimportantconcern.Producersandconsumersshouldbeabletomakerationaleconomicdecisioindependentlyofpriceuctuationsornegativeexternalitiesfromenergy.
erefore,itismoreimportantforanenergychoicetobemadethatwillprovidelong-termeconomicstabilityrathethanprovidingonlyforlowpricesatanyexpense,particularlyifthosepricestendtobevolatile.
Economicstabilityshouldbeprioritizedabovelowpricesbecausethepursuitoflowpricescangivelicensetoproductoignoreothercosts.By ignoringtheseexternalities,particularlypollution,thepursuitof lowpricescancausenoeconomiccoststoariseelsewhere,forexampleinreducedhealthfrompollutedairandwater.
Environmental Sustainability
Whilethereremainsadeeppoliticaldivideinthiscountry(andfewothers)aboutwhetherman-madeemissioarecausingtheclimatetochange,thedebateinthescienticcommunityisnolongeraboutwhetherhumansa
causingclimatechange,buthowmuchthoseemissionsarehurting.
emostcontroversialdebatesamongscientistsareaboutthesensitivityoftheclimatetoincreasedconcentrationsogreenhousegases.However,evenifpolicymakersareskepticalofthescienticbasisforthetheoryofclimatechange,prudent,precautionarycourseinthefaceofuncertaintywoulddemandthatsomeactionbetaken.
Afterthe2008election,inwhichbothBarackObamaandJohnMcCainsupportedgovernmentpoliciestocapan
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ultimatelyreducegreenhousegasemissions,environmentalistshadhopedthattheU.S.Congresswouldaddresstheproblemofclimatechange.However,theproblemsofamajorrecession,shiftingstancesonthetruthbehindclimatechange,andcompetinglegislativeprioritiesmeantthattheWaxman-Markeybillto capgreenhousegasemissionspassedbytheHouseofRepresentativesinJune2009wasnevertakenupbytheSenate.
Eventhoughthereisnodomesticlawlimitingcarbonemissions,theU.S.Government,underbothPresidentsBushandObama,hascommittedtoanumberofinternationalagreementstocapandreduceemissions,expressedthrough
statementsattheG-7,theG-20,andtheUNsCopenhagenAccord.
Climatechangehasdeepimplicationsforenergypolicy.efossilfuelstheUnitedStatesusestoproduce83%ofitsenergyarethemaindriverofclimatechange.4erefore,anyplanthatlookstoreduceemissionswillrequireeitherreducingthetotalamountofenergyproduced(eitherthroughgainsineciency,orabsolutedeclinesinenergyused)orreplacingalargeportionofenergyproductionwithemissions-freepower.
Astheworldssecondlargestemitterabout5,638millionmetrictonsofcarbonemittedfromenergygenerationin2010(18%ofglobalemissions) 5 the U.S.willplayan important role indetermining whetherthe worldcansuccessfullypreventdangerousclimatechange.
Environmentalsustainabilityisaboutmorethanclimatechange,however.
LocalenvironmentaleectsofenergyproductionareasimportantormorethanclimatechangetohowtheUnitedStatesmakesitsdecisionsaboutenergyproduction.Decisionsonhowstrictlytolegislateandenforcepollutionlimitshavesignicantimpactsondecisionsabouthowtoproduceenergy.Environmentalsustainabilityinenergygenerationandextractionarecriticaltothefeasibilityofanyenergysystem.
eextraction,throughminingordrilling,offuelsandmineralsnecessaryforenergyproductioncanhavenegativeeectsonthelocalenvironment.eseexternalitiesincludespills,watercontamination,andairpollutionallofwhichcanbeharmfultothehealthofpeoplelivingandworkingaroundextractionsites.Howenergyproductionaectslocal
watersuppliesandlocalairqualitywilldeterminehowthepublicacceptsnewenergydevelopments.
Anenergysourceshouldbedenedasenvironmentallysustainableiftheproductionanduseofitdoesnotcauseundueharm.Whetherthatharmistolocalecosystems,theglobalatmosphere,watersystems,neighboringbusinesses,orhumanhealth,anenergysourcewithsubstantialexternalitiesisnotsustainableoverthelongterm.
Environmentalsustainabilityandeconomicstabilityarecloselylinkedoverthelong-term,becausean energychoicethatharmstheenvironmentwilleventuallycostmore.Itmaybetruethatpollutingcanreducecosts,justasthrowinggarbageoutanapartmentwindowischeaperthanpayingforgarbagecollection,butoverthelong-termbothwillproveunsustainable.isisbecausepolitical,regulatory,andlegalpressurewillbebroughtagainstpollutionsourcestobothreduceeuenceandcleanupanycontamination.
WhenmakingachoiceofhowtopowertheAmericaneconomyforthefuture,decisionmakersshouldclearlyarticulatehoweachpotentialsourceofenergyaectsnationalenergysecurity,economicstability,andenvironmentalsustainability.
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Options for Americas Energy Use
AccordingtotheEIA,theUnitedStatesistheworldslargestuserofenergy,consuming18.6%oftheglobalannenergysupplyin2008.6
A description of Americas future energy choicesmust begin with how the United States uses andproducesenergynow.LawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratorysowchart(Figure1)showshowtheU.S.energyusein2009.ischartshowstherelativesizeandimportanceofeachsourceofenergy,aswellashoweachenergytypeisused.Analyzingthechartleadstosomeimportantconclusions,suchastheseparationofenergybetweenthatusedforelectricitygenerationandthatusedfortransportationandthestaggeringlyhighamountofrejected(wasted)energy.emajordrawbackofthechartisthatitisastaticsnapshotofenergyuseitdoesnotshowgrowthordeclineover time. Nevertheless, it provides an importantbaselineforthediscussionofthedierentfueltypes
thatfollows.
Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, https://fowcharts.llnl.gov/
Source: EIA International Energy Statistics, http://www.eia.gov/capps/ipdproject/IEDIndex3cm?tid=44&pid=44&aid=2
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I. Fossil Fuels
FossilfuelsmakeupthelargestportionofenergyproductionintheUnitedStates.Petroleumproducts,coal,andnaturalgasaccountedfor83%oftotalenergyproductionin2009.EachhasdierentphysicalpropertiesthathavegiventhemverydierentrolesinAmericascurrentenergymix.
Itisnotamistakethatfossilfuelsarethedominantsourcesoffuelintheindustrializedworld.ecombinationoflowpricesandhighenergydensityhavemaderstcoal,thenoilandnaturalgas,thepreferredchoicesforenergyproductionforover200years.islong-termusagegivesthosefuelstwocenturiesofbuilt-inadvantageintheformofinfrastructurebuilttouseandtransportthesefuels.Itisnotenoughtosaythatbecausefossilfuelsarecheap,theyalwayswillremainthebestchoice.
Risingglobaldemandforallsourcesoffossilfuelsisdrivenbypopulationgrowthandtherequirementsofaburgeoningmiddleclassindevelopingcountries.Meanwhile,althoughgeologists,economists,andanalystscontinuetoargueabouthowmuchcoal,oil,orgasremainsbeneaththeground,bydenition,suppliesoffossilfuelsarenite.
Together, increases in demand coupled withconstrained supply will inevitablylead topriceincreases. It is onlyaquestionofwhenfossilfuelsarenolongertheeconomical.
esethreemajorfossilfuelsallpresentsignicant,thoughdierent,challengestoAmericanenergysecurity,economicstability,andenvironmentalsustainability.
Sincetheverybeginningoftheindustrialrevolution,whenthecitiesofEnglandwereturnedblackbycoalsoot,ithasbeenclearthatburningfossilfuelshaveacosttothelocalenvironment.ispollutionisnotonlydangeroustoecosystemsandwildlife;ithasalsoprovedtobedetrimentaltohumanhealth.IntheUnitedStates,industrialpollutionfromfossilfuelswasoneofthemainreasonsforthecreationoftheEnvironmentalProtectionAgency.7
Overthelastthirtyyears,advancesintechnology,suchasthecatalyticconvertoronautomobilesandadvancedscrubbersinpowerplants,havereducedtheamountoftoxinsreleasedintolocalairandwatersupplies.However,itisonlywithin
thelastthirtyyearsthatscientistshavebeguntoprovethattheemissionsfromfossilfuels,especiallycarbondioxide,arealsocausingtheclimateoftheentireEarthtochange.Sofar,thereisnotechnicalxtothis:theonlywaytopreventfossilfuelsfromemittinggreenhousegasesintotheatmosphereistonotburnthematall.
e result of two centuriesof increasing fossil fuel use is that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the earthsatmospherehasrisenby4%fromabout275partspermillion(ppm)toarecord391ppmin2011andthattheEarthsaveragetemperaturehasrisenbyaboutonedegreeCelsius.8
eUnitedStateshas a responsibilityasthesecond largestemitter ofgreenhousegasesin the worldto reduce itsemissions.Innovationandnewtechnologiesareincreasingtheeciencyoftheenginesandpowerplantsthatburnfossilfuelsmeaningthatlessfuelandfeweremissionswillproducethesameamountofenergy.
However,anyeortstoreduceemissionsmustrealizethatyoucanonlygosofarwithfossilfuels.If83%ofAmericasenergycontinuestocomefromfossilfuels,thentheearthwouldlikelybestuckonatrajectoryofwarming3or4degreesabovepre-modernlevelsfarbeyondwhatclimatescientistshavedeemedasasafelevel.9
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1. Oil
Oilaccountsfor35%oftotalenergyuse.Whileverylittleofthatisusedtoproduceelectricity,itisthedominantfufortransportation:94%oftheenergythatpowersAmericancars,trucks,trains,andplanescomesfromburnin
fuelsrenedfromcrudeoilinaninternalcombustionengine.
e dominance of oil for transportation comes from its unique physical properties that make it well-adaptedtransportation:ithasahigheramountofenergyperkilogramthancoal,butbecauseitis inaliquidform,itiseastransportable,unlikenaturalgaswhichrequiresspecializedcontainment.
Oilalsoenjoys an eective monopolyon transportation because its century-long dominanceof transportationhresultedinalargeandecientinfrastructurededicatedtoextracting,rening,anddistributingcrudeoilandthefue
thatarerenedfromit.
Energy Security
FortheUnitedStates,dependenceonoilforitstransportationisadirectthreattoenergysecurity;concernsaboutth
impactonthepriceofoilareanimportantfactorinforeignpolicydecisions.
eUnitedStatesproducesmorethanhalfoftheoilitconsumes(netimportsare47%onconsumption)with20ofimportscomingfromitsNAFTAneighborsofCanadaandMexico,butthepriceconsumerspayforoildependsglobalmarkets.10
Evenif the UnitedStatescouldproduce100% oftheoilitused,Americanconsumerswouldstillbevulnerabletoglobalprice uctuations based on supply disruptions in unstableregions.Forexample,theriseinoilpricesduetotheSpring2011 revolution and civil war in Libya have impacted
Americanconsumers,eventhoughLibyanoilexportstotheU.S.composelessthan1%ofallimportsin2010.11IntegratedglobaloilmarketsmeanthatproducingmoreoilwithintheUnitedStateswillnoterasesecuritythreats.
Solongas30%ofglobalproductioncomesfromtheMiddleEast(12%fromSaudiArabiaalone,or10millionbarrelsperday)andsolongasithasover50%oftheworldstotalprovenreserves,AmericanforeignpolicyintheregionwillcontinuetofollowtheCarterDoctrine.12Firstpromulgatedin1979,itstatesthatbecauseofitsoilreserves,anattemptbyanyoutsideforcetogaincontrolofthePersianGulfregionwill
beregardedasanassaultonthevitalinterestsoftheUnitedStates.13
Source: EIA, Petroleum and Other Liquids,http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/data.cm
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Economic Stability
U.S.dependenceonoilfortransportationharmsitseconomicstabilityasmuchasitharmsitsenergysecurity.Inadditiontothelong-termproblemsofsupplyanddemand,oilsuersfromtheshort-termproblemofpricevolatility.Overthelastfouryearsalone,theglobalpriceofoilhasuctuatedfromanaveragepriceperbarrelof$69in2007toapeakof$147inJuly2008,backdownbelow$35inJanuary2009,thenbackupabove$120perbarrelinApril2011. 14isconstantuctuationharmsconsumersandbusinessesbecauseitimpairstheirabilitytoplanforthelong-term.
AsecondproblemofeconomicstabilityinAmericasrelianceonoilisthedependenceonimports.
eUnitedStatessendshundredsofbillionsofdollarsoverseastopayforoil.eUnitedStatesconsumedover$1.45trillionworthofoilin2010,ofwhich$680billionwasspentonimports. 15Withouttheseimports,theU.S.tradedecit,whichwas$497billionin2010,wouldnothaveexisted. 16atcapitalcouldbeusedforinvestmentathome.eexportofthiscapitalhastheeectofdrivingdownthevalueofthedollar.Coupledtogether,volatilityandimportdependencemeanthatrapidpriceincreasesactasataxincreaseonconsumersbutinsteadofthistaxincreasebeingusedtopaydownthebudgetdecitorinvestdomestically,50%ofitissentoverseas.
Environmental SustainabilityGreenhousegasemissionsfromoilandpetroleumproductsaresinglelargestsourceofcarbonemissionsintheU.S.17
Oilproduces164,000poundsofcarbondioxideemissionsperbillionBritishthermalunit(Btu)ofenergy--40%morethannaturalgas,but21%lessthancoal.18
eU.S.governmenthasinstitutedpolicies,suchastheincreaseinCorporateAverageFuelEciency(CAFE)standards,whichwillreducetheamountofgreenhousegasemissionspermiletraveled.ispolicywillproducetechnologicaloptionsforreducinggreenhousegasemissionsbyimprovingautomobileeciencyandbyincentivizingautomakerstolookforcleanerormoreecientfuelssuchasethanolorbiodiesel.
Althoughproducingoildomesticallyisgoodforeconomicstability,thereisatradeo.Drillingforoilcanproduceoilspills,liketheexplosionoftheDeepwaterHorizonplatformin2010whichkilled11workers,shutdownshingacrosstheGulfofMexico,andcouldultimatelycost$20billiontocleanup.19
Asexplorationforoilexpandsintomoredicult-to-accessareas,suchasdeepunderwater,intheArctic,orintheoilsandsofAlberta,Canada,itisclearthattherewillbeagreaterriskofenvironmentallydamagingspillsduetothetechnicalcomplexityofoperatingintheseareas.
e American public will have to make a choice of whether it accepts the risks of environmental damage fromincreaseddrilling.Politiciansandthepublicshouldnotbesurprisedwhenfutureaccidentshappeninsteadproperriskmanagementproceduresshouldbefollowedtominimizeboththeriskofanaccidentandthecostwhenonedoes
happen.
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2.Coal
Coalprovides21%oftotalenergyuseintheUnitedStatesandisthesinglelargestsourceofelectricpower,providin48%ofelectricitygeneration.Onlyabout7%ofcoalisburnedforanythingotherthantheproductionofelectrici-mostlyforindustrialusessuchassteelproduction.
IntheUnitedStates,thelargeststatesforcoalminingareWyomingandWestVirginia,whichannuallyproducemothanhalfofalldomesticcoal.20About$1.5billionworthofcoalisimportedeveryyear,althoughtheU.S.runsatrasurplusincoal,withaboutthreetimesthatamountexported.21
Energy Security
Coal,unlikeoil,isalmostentirelyproducedfromdomesticmines,anddoesnotpresentthesamesecuritythreatsasoMoreover,unlikeoil,coalisnotbeenaneasilytradablecommodity,duetoitssizeandweight.
evalueofcoaltoAmericanenergysecurityisevidentfromthehighprioritythatpresidentsfrombothpartiesgaveitduringthe1970senergycrises:PresidentsNixon,Ford,andCarterallinitiatedpoliciesthatfavoreddomesticcoproductionforelectricitygeneration.
eUnitedStatesisestimatedtohave249yearsofrecoverablecoalreservesatpresentratesofconsumption.Coalwoulbeanearlyoptimalchoice,forpurelyenergysecurityreasons,wereitnotforthefatalawsofitsenvironmentalansafetyrecord,whichwillbeexpandedonfurtherinsectionsbelow.22
Economic Stabilityedominanceofcoalinutility-scaleelectricitygenerationisbecauseminingandtransportationhashistoricallybeecheap.
Sincethe1970s,technologicaladvancementsallowedfortheconstructionoflarge,high-volume,coalpowerplantswhigherthermodynamiceciencythanolderplants,enablingmoreenergytobeconvertedtoelectricityandlesswastasheat.
Source: U.S. Coal Overview 1949-2009, EIA, http://www.eia.gov/coal
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For example,the largest coalpowerplant inthe country - the Rockport plantin Spencer, Indiana- iscapableofproducing2600MWofelectricity,twicethecapacityofanaverageAmericannuclearpowerplant.23Itusesover9milliontonsofcoalperyear.
However,thelong-termcheapnessofcoalasasourceofelectricpowermaybebeginningtocometoanend.Railroadstransportmostcoalproduction,andincreasingdemandsontrackalongwithindustryconsolidationmeanthattheycanincreasedeliverypricesofcoal;forsomecoaldeliveries,transportationcostsaccountfor50%ofthepriceofdeliveredcoal.24
Environmental Sustainability
epriceofcheapcoalisapparentinvisitstominingcountry,wheremountaintopshavebeenremovedandpeoplearelesshealthy.Coalminingremainsthe7thmostdangerousjobinthecountry.25
Burningcoalistheworstoptionforgreenhousegasemissions,producing208,000poundsofcarbondioxideemissionsperbillionBtuofoutput.26Coalalsocontainspollutants,includingmercury,lead,andsulfur.Manyofthesepollutantscanberemovedinthesmokestackbymodernscrubbertechnologies.However,thereisnotyetatechnologicalxforreducinggreenhousegasemissions.
erearepilotprojectsinNorwayandGermanythataretestingcarboncaptureandsequestration(CCS)technologyasawaytoremovegreenhousegasemissionsandsequesterthemunderground.eyhavenotyetdemonstratedthatthisisasafe,long-termoption.ItalsoispossiblethattheenergylostbycapturingandsequesteringthecarbondioxidewillmakecoalpowerplantswithCCStechnologymorecostlyandinecientthancompetingpowerplants.
Coalmayalsobetheworstoptionfortheenvironmentalandhumandamageitcauseswhenitismined.Coalminingreleasestoxicsulfuricacidintolocalgroundwatersupplies,destroyslocalecosystems,andharmshumanhealth.GreaterenvironmentalregulationsandtheincreasinguseofcoalfromWyomingsPowderRiverBasin,whichhaslessaveragesulfurcontentthanEasterncoal,meanthatthesenewcoalpowerplantsdonotemitasmanyacid-raincausingpollutants.
3. Natural Gas
Naturalgasprovides25%oftotalenergyuseintheUnitedStates,and19%ofelectricityproduction.Itisusedforelectricityproductionaswellasdirectlyinhouseholdsandbusinesses.It isalsoa veryimportantsourceoffeedstockforfertilizer.
In the last decade, new technology, particularly the commercialization of hydraulic fracturing (fracking), hasrevolutionizednaturalgasproductionintheU.S.Frackingallowsnaturalgastrappedinshalerockformationstobereleasedandcaptured.ishasledtonaturalgasproductioninareasofthecountry,suchasPennsylvaniaandColorado,
whereithadpreviouslynotbeeneconomicallyfeasible.Becauseofthenewshalegastechnologyproduction,totalnaturalgasextractionhasincreasedby21%from2005through2011.
Energy Security
ecommercializationofshalegastechnologyhasrevolutionizednaturalgasproductionintheUnitedStates,easingconcernsaboutenergysecurity.Estimatesoftechnicallyandeconomicallyrecoverablegasresourceshaveskyrocketed
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becauseofthefrackingtechnology.
eU.S.EnergyInformationAgency(EIA)estimatedin2010thattheUnitedStatespossessesatotalnaturalgaresourcebaseof2,552trillioncubicfeet(Tcf )ofpotentialnaturalgasresources.AtcurrentratesofusetheUnitedStathasreservesfor110yearsofnaturalgas.ereissomedisputebetweenagenciesovertotalreserves,butthenumbersaremuchlarger.
Before the boom was apparent asrecentlyas2006therewaspressurefromnaturalgasuserstobuildmoreliqueednatural gas (LNG) terminals in orderto import gas.27 Now, however, thoseterminals are increasingly being used toexportgas.Injusttenyears,from2000to2010,U.S.exportsofnaturalgashaveincreased by over 350%.28 e naturalgasboomintheUnitedStatesisnotonlygoodforAmericanenergysecurity,butit
hasalsohelpedAmericastradingpartnersandalliesespeciallythoseinEuropethatrelyonRussiangasimportstodiversifytheirfuelsources.
Economic Stability
Naturalgasisnotaseasilytransportableascoaloroil.Becauseitisagas,itrequiressignicantinfrastructureinvestmeninpipelines,liqueednaturalgasfacilities,orfueltankstotransportit.ismeansthattherearenotuniedmarketsfogaspricesofgasdeliveredtoafacilityvarysignicantlyaroundtheworld,andindeedindierentareasofthecountry
ispriceuncertaintyhasgivenutilitiessomeconcernaboutmakinglong-termcommitmentstousingnaturalgasasbaseloadpowersource.Instead,gaspowerplantshavebeenusedasback-upgenerationfortimesofpeakload.
efallingaspricesintheU.S.thathasaccompaniedtheshalegasboomhasbeguntostimulateinvestmentinnewgaspowerplants.However,electricutilitiesareverysensitiveaboutmakinglong-terminvestmentsthatrelyonnaturalgafuelwithahistoryofsurprisepricechangesbecausetheyareoftenpreventedbystatelawsandutilitycommissiofromincreasingconsumerrateswhenfuelpricesincrease.
eeconomicstabilityofnaturalgasasanenergysourceisstillanopenquestion,butifpricesremainhistoricallyloinvestorsshouldbeexpectedtotestitslong-termviability.
Environmental Sustainability
Burning natural gas ismore environmentally friendlythanany other fossil fuel because it burnscleaner with lepollutantsandnomercury.Itsgreenhousegasemissionsare117,000poundsofcarbondioxideperbillionBtu;44%lowerthancoaland30%lowerthanoil. 29ismeansthatifallelectricityproductioncurrentlyusingcoalnowwerswitchedtogas,totalU.S.greenhousegasemissionswouldbeabout10%less.
Inaddition,naturalgaspowerplantsareexcellentpartnerstorenewablepower.Becauserenewablegenerationisby
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naturevariable,itisimportanttohaveareadyreserveofreliablepowerfortimeswhendemandexceedssupply.Modernnaturalgaspowerplantsareabletoeconomicallyturnonando,unlikecoalornuclearplantsthatrequirelongleadtimestoheatupandcoolo.Forthesereasons,naturalgashasbeencalledabridgefueltoenablegreateruseofrenewablepowerinthegrid.
Althoughburningnaturalgasisrelativelyclean,thereisanongoingdebateabouthowdangeroustheminingofgasisforlocalairandwatersupplies.Hydraulicfracturingrequiresthatlargeamountsofwaterandchemicalsbeinjected
deepintotheearthathighpressures.ereisajustiablefear,andsomeevidence,thatthechemicalsinthefracturingwillleachintowatersupplies.30Properlydone,thechemicalsshouldnotgointothewatersupplybecausethefracturingtakesplacefarbelowthewatertable.
Withmorethan460,000wellsoperatingintheUnitedStates,however,itisimportantthathighstandardsaremaintainedacrossthecountry.Furtherstudy,increasedtransparency,andtightoversightatallstagesofthedrillingprocessshouldbeembracedbybothregulatorsandindustry.
Frackinghasotherenvironmentalconcernsbeyondthepossiblepollutionofwatersources.Peoplelivinginareaswithnewdrillingreporthigherincidentsofasthma.Inaddition,new drillingrequireslargeamountsof water,increasing
waterscarcityinareasalreadyunderwaterstress.Finally,newfrackingprojectsintheUnitedKingdomhavebeen
suspendedbecauseofconcernsaboutearthquakes.31
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II. Nuclear Power
N
uclearpoweristheexpressionofEinsteinsfamousequation:E=MC2,orEnergy=MassxSpeedofLigsquared.ismeansthereisatremendousamountofenergylockedinthenucleusofeveryatom.isenercanbereleasedinoneoftwoways:bysplittingtheatom(ssion)orbyfusingtwoatomstogether(fusion).
Humanityrstunleashedthefullpoweroftheatomwithresearchthatledtothebuildingoftherstatomicbombs1945.Shortlythereafter,in1952,athermonuclearhydrogenbombwastestedbytheUnitedStatesresultinginthrstman-made(thoughuncontrolled)fusionreaction.
Aftertheworldsawthedevastationthattheatomic bomb could bring, some foresawthat the same power unleashed by nuclear
weaponry could be harnessed for peacefulpurposes.Inthishope,PresidentEisenhower
begantheAtomsforPeaceprogram,witha1953 speech to the United Nations saying,the miraculous inventiveness of man shallnotbededicatedtohisdeath,butconsecratedtohislife.32
4. Nuclear Fission
Americanciviliannuclearpowerbeganin1955,whentheAtomicEnergyCommission
askedforproposalsfromtobuildnuclearreactors
toproduceelectricpowerfromnuclearssion.By1960,3civilianpowerreactorswereinoperation.Twentyyearslatby1980,87reactorswereinoperationaroundthecountry.
However,the1979accidentatreeMileIsland,inwhichanuclearreactorscoremelteddown,andquestionsabothecostandeciencyofnuclearpower,slowednewconstruction.After1980,over100reactororderswerecanceledanfourteenalreadyoperationalreactorswerepermanentlyshutdown.
Today,atotalof104reactorsareoperationalaroundthecountry,withacapacityof101.0gigawatts.In2009,nucle
energyprovidedabout20%ofthecountrystotalelectricitygenerationand9%oftotalenergy.33
ereisonlyonenuclearreactorcurrentlyunderconstructionintheU.S.Othersareawaitingpermittingand
nancing,butforecastsofanuclearrenaissancehavenotyetcomeabout.Oneareathatcouldseegrowthnuclearreactorconstructionissmall,modularreactors;theTennesseeValleyAuthorityrecentlysignedaletteofintenttobuilduptosixsmallreactors.enumberofthesetypesofnuclearpowerplantscouldincreassincenancingwillbeeasiertocomebyandconstructionwillnottakeaslong.
Source: EIA, Nuclear and Uranium, http://www.eia.gov/nuclear/data.m
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Energy Security
Fromatraditionalenergysecuritypointofview,increasinguseofnuclearssionreactorsforelectricitywouldgiveastrongboosttonationalenergysecurity:itsfuel(uranium)iseitheravailablefromdomesticmines,orfromdecommissionednuclearweapons.
However, nuclear power does present more
traditional threats to security. Nuclear powerplants close to population centers, such asNewYorksIndianPointreactor,arepotentialterroristtargets.
Economic Stability
Originally, nuclear power was envisioned asa cheap source of plentiful electricity mostmemorably, it was described in 1954 by theheadoftheAtomicEnergyCommission,Lewis
Strauss,astoocheaptometer.34
Unfortunately,thathasnotprovedtobethecase.
Unlikefossilfuel-poweredelectricitygeneration,mostofthecostfornuclearpowerisxed,inup-front infrastructure costs. Once a plant iscompleteandrunning,thevariablecostoffuelonlyaddsasmallamounttothepriceofelectricitygenerated.
Historyhasshownthatthebudgetfornewnuclearreactors,alreadyhigh,isveryoftenexceeded.Anassessmentof75ofAmericasexistingreactorsshowedpredictedcoststohavebeen$45billion,buttheactualcostswere$145billion.35ecountrywiththemostrecentnuclearpowerconstructionexperience,India,showsthatcostsofitslast10reactors
haveaveraged300%overbudget.Oncebuilt,however,anotedbenetofnuclearpoweristhatthepriceofelectricityisstableandpredictable.
Spentfuelisalsoadrainongovernmentresources.Underthe1982NuclearWastePolicyAct,theU.S.governmentwastocreateapermanentstoragesiteforradioactivespentnuclearfuelbyFebruary1998.irteenyearslater,thefederalgovernmentisnoclosertomeetingthisrequirement;asaresult,utilitieshaveleddozensoflawsuitsforover$6billioninclaims.Ofthis,thegovernmenthasalreadypaid$956million,andithasspentnearly$170millionsimplydefendingitself.DepartmentofEnergystatisticsshowthatnewlawsuitsandothercostscouldeventuallypushthegovernmentslegalliabilitytoover$16billion.36
Environmental Sustainability
Nuclearpower,bothfromssionandfusion,doesnotproducegreenhousegases.Forthisreason,someenvironmentalistsmostworriedaboutclimatechangehaveshiftedfromtheirtraditionaloppositiontonuclearpower.IftheUnitedStates
producedthesamepercentageofitselectricityfromnuclearpowerasFrancedoes(77%),itwouldproduce19%fewergreenhousegases.
Althoughtherearenopollutingemissionsfromexisting(ssion)nuclearpower,thatdoesnotmakeitcompletelyclean.
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Spentnuclearfuel,whichcanconsistofradioactiveuranium,plutonium,orthorium,presentslong-termthreatsfroradiationcontamination.Afterspentnuclearfuelisremovedfromthereactor,itisplacedintemporarywatercoolinpoolswithinthereactorfacility.iswasnotintendedtobepermanent,butthegovernmentsfailuretondalontermstrategyforstoringspentnuclearfuelmeansthatmostofAmericasradioactivespentfuel63,000tonsofnucle
wasteisstoredon-site.37
5. Fusion
Fusionhasnotseenthesamesuccessasasourceofenergytodate.ebasicfuelforfusionishydrogen,andenergyproducedbyforcingtogethertheatomicnucleiofdeuteriumandtritium(twoformsofhydrogen)toformheliuAgreatdealofenergyisreleasedbythisreaction:onepoundoffusionfueliscapableofyieldingasmuchenergyasicontainedin10millionpoundsofcoal.
erstpatentrelatedtofusionenergywasissuedintheUnitedKingdomin1946.Sincethen,therehavebeennumberofsignicantbreakthroughs,includingcontrolledfusionreactions.Uptonow,theproblemsofhowtocontatheintenseheatandpressureneedforasustainedfusionreactionhavepreventedfusionreactionsfromachievingtpointwheremoreenergywillbereleasedfromthereactionthanisbeingusedtoinitiateandcontrolit.
Recentadvancesinlaserandmagnetictechnology,however,haveraisedhopesthatfusioncouldbecomeanewsourceoelectricityoverthemedium-term.ScientistsfromtheLawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratoryinCalifornia,workiunder the auspices of the National Nuclear Security Administration at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), hapredictedthattheywillbeabletoachieveafusionreactionthatgetsnetenergygainasignicantmilestoneusingadvancedlasersforcompressionandcontainmentbytheendof2012.38
Energy Security
Fusion power has the potential to
alleviateconcernsaboutenergysecurity.Fueltopowerfusionpowerisavailableinseawater.
e downside risk on energy securitycomesfromnotinvestinginresearchanddevelopment.Ifothernationaleortsinothercountries, particularly competitorcountries like China, are successful incommercializing fusion reactions, then
they will sell the technology abroad, attheexpenseoftheU.S.
Importantly,dependenceontechnologyandinfrastructuredonotraisethesameenergysecurityconcernsasdependenceuponimportedfueldoes,buttheywill
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certainlyexertacost.
Economic Stability
Bringingfusionpowertoalevelthatitiscommerciallyviablewillrequiresignicantresearchanddevelopmentspending,estimatedatabout$35billionovera15-yearperiod(or$2.33billionperyear).39isisasignicantoutlay,butforcomparison,thecostoftheManhattanprojectwasapproximately$22billionincurrentdollarsover5years,andthe
Apolloprogramwas$98billionover14years.40
Oncecommercialized,powerplantsarelikelytorequireahighinitialconstructioncostandlowoperatingcosts.Fusionhasthepotentialtobealong-termsourceofenergy,butitwillrequiresignicantandsustainedinvestmentinordertomeettheengineeringandscienticneedsrequired.
Environmental Sustainability
Fusionpowerdoesnotproduceradioactivewasteatnearlythesamelevelasssion.Infact,developingfusionmayactuallyhelptosolvetheproblemofspentnuclearfuel.PhysicistsattheUniversityofTexasatAustinhavedesignedanewsystemthat,whenfullydeveloped,wouldusefusiontoeliminatemostofthewasteproducedbyssionnuclear
powerplants.
Pairingssionandfusionreactionswouldalsoallowthedangerousradiationtobeabsorbedbyfusionreactions,therebyusingtheharmfulradiationfromssionreactionstopowerfusionreactions.Inthisway,fusioncouldhelpthelong-
termenvironmentalsustainabilityofexistingU.S.nuclearpowerplants.
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III. Renewable Power
Beforethewidespreadadoptionoffossilfuelstwohundredyearsago,renewablesourcesofpowerweretheonenergysourcesavailable.Manytownswerebuiltonornearriversinordertotakeadvantageofthepowerrunningwater.
Wind was the prime mode of power for watertransportation.Biomassisjustamoretechnicalnameforburningwoodforheatorlight.Inthe21stcentury,inaneorttoreturntoanenergysystemthatismoresustainable, limitless, and is less likely to provokeconict,humanityisreturningtoitsoriginalsourcesofenergy.istime,though,scientistsareusingthecombined technology and innovation of the 21stcenturyinordertobetterharnessthesesources.Renewablepowerincludespowergeneratedbywater,
wind,thesun,plants,orthenaturalheatoftheearth.Together,thesevepowersourceshydro,wind,solar,biomass,andgeothermalaccountfor8.2%oftotalenergygenerationintheUnitedStates,and10.8%ofelectricitygeneration.
edierent fossilfuelor nuclear sourcesofenergyeach present separate challenges or concerns aboutenergysecurity,economicstability,andenvironmentalsustainability.However,thepositivesandnegativeforthesethreecriteriaarelargelysharedacrosseachofthe
vetypesofrenewableenergysource.Forthatreason,thischapterwillbrieygiveashortoverviewofeachtype of renewable power, followed by a discussionof the shared concerns about renewable power forenergysecurity,economicstability,andenvironmental
sustainability.
6. Hydropower
H
ydropower is the largest renewable source ofenergyintheUnitedStates.Itproduces7%of
thecountryselectricitypowerin 1950,itproduced30%of thecountryspower.eGrandCouleeDamontColombiaRiverinWashingtonisthelargestelectricitypowerplantinthecountry,capableofgenerating6.9gigawaofelectricity.41
However,thereislittleroomforgrowth.Hydroelectricplantscanonlyoperatewhereriversprovidesuitableamounofpotentialenergy,andmostofthebestsiteshavealreadybeendeveloped.Consequently,conventionalhydroelectgenerationgrewsteadilythroughthe1970s,peakedin1997,andhasbeendecliningforthelastdecade.
Source: EIA, Renewable Energy Consumption and Electricity Preliminary
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oughthereareotherformsofhydrogeneration, like underwater run oftheriverturbines,theirmaturitydoesnot approach the level of traditionalhydropower,andtheirdevelopmentis
speculative.
One area of hydropower that couldprove to be an area of growth istidal power. Like conventionalhydropower, it generates electricityusing the kinetic energy containedin water currents. ere are severalmechanisms for generating tidalpower,rangingfrombarragesthatlooklike traditional hydroelectricdamstostreamgeneratorsthatactalmostlike
undersea wind turbines to oatingbuoys that use wave movements togeneratepower. elargestcurrentlyoperatinggeneratorisinSihwaLake,SouthKoreawitha254MWoutputcapacity.IntheU.S.thereareestimatesthatthereisenoughwaveandtidalpotentialtopower15-30%ofAmericasenergydemand,butcostandsitingarechallengesthatwillneedtobeovercome.45
7. Wind
Windpoweroverthepastdecadehasbeen the fastest growing source
of American energy. For the ten yearsto 2009, wind had an average annualgrowthrateof32%.Today, itaccountsfor2%ofelectricitygeneration.42
Large scale wind farms are beinginstalled across the county. Oshore
wind farms are being installed rapidlyin some European countries, but inthe United States, only two are in the
planningprocessandnonehavebegunconstruction. Wind farms placed farenoughoshorecanovercometheoftencited opposition to wind that comesfromconcernsaboutobstructedviewsinonshorefarms.
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8. Solar
Solarpoweris lessutilizedthanwindin the UnitedStates.In 2010,it accounted for only .03%oftotalenerproduction,withmostofthatgoingtohouseholduses,suchassolarheating.43Utility-scaleelectricitygenerationtheUnitedStatesfromsolarcellsisstillafar-odream.Europeangovernmentshavebeeninvestingmoreheavilyingovernmentpoliciestopromotelarge-scalesolarpower.
erearetwomainwaystoproduceelectricityfromthesun.erstisthroughphotovoltaiccellsthatcapturesunlighonsiliconandtransformitintoelectricity.
esecondiscalledconcentratedsolarthermal.Inthismethod,specializedmirrorsareusedtofocustheheatandligofthesunonacentralcorethatisheated.eheatfromthiscoreisthenusedtogeneratesteam,turningaturbineancreatingelectricity.ebenetofthisformofsolarthermalpoweristhattheheatofthecentralcorecanbemaintainsothatpowercanbegeneratedevenwhenthesungoesdown.
9. Biomass
Generatingenergyfrombiomassistheabilitytouseplantsforfuel.iscanbeassimpleasusingwaste-woodfrosawmillsorpaperfactoriesinresidentialheatingsystemsoritcanrefertotheprocessofreningcornintoethanthatisthenblendedintogasoline.
EthanolisthemostimportantofthesefuelsintheUnitedStates,butothercountrieshavemadebiodieselmadefromoilseedsandpalmoilsignicantpartsoftheirtransportationfuels.Givengeneroussubsidies,corn-basedethanol,blendeintogasoline,providesabout4%oftheenergyusedintransportation.
Advancedformsofbiodieselincludeproposalstorenefuelfromalgae.
10. Geothermal
GeothermalpowercomesfromtheEarthsnaturalheat.Residentialgeothermalsystemsincludesimpleheatpumthatusethesoilsconstanttemperaturetohelpkeephouseswarminthewinterandcoolinthesummer.Geothermalonautility-scaleisastable,long-termsourceofenergy,butonlyincertainareaswherethecrustoftheeartisthinandvolcanicorseismicactivityishigh.eUnitedStatescurrentlyhasthemostinstalledgeothermalelectricgenerationcapacityinternationally,withapproximately3.1gigawattsofonlinecapacity.
AsofApril2011,geothermalelectricpowergenerationisoccurringinnineU.S.states:Alaska,California,Hawa
Idaho,Nevada,NewMexico,Oregon,Utah,andWyoming.elargestproducerofgeothermalenergyisCaliforniawith83%ofnationalgeneratingcapacity.44
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Energy Security
Anyformofrenewablepowerpresentsfewconcernsaboutenergysecuritybecausetheydonotuseafuelthathastobeimported.
Somecomplainaboutdependenceonimportedsolarpanelsorotherenergy-producinggoodsfromChina,butthisisnotthesameasenergysecurity.Unlikedependenceonacommoditylikeoil,importingsolarpanelsforexampleconstituteaone-time-onlyxedcost.Oncethecostisborne,thereisverylittlevariablecostforgeneratingrenewableenergy.esameistruewhenconcernsareraisedthatimportinglithiumforadvancedbatterieswillonlyreplaceimportsfromunstableVenezuelaorIraqwithimportsfromunstableBolivia.isislikewiseafalseargument,becausebatteriesshouldbetermedasaxedinvestmentcost,notavariablecost,likefuel.Whiletherearegoodeconomicargumentsfornotbeingreliantonimportsofmineralsorrenewableenergymaterials,therearefewvalidsecurityarguments.
Aneconomythatreliesonrenewablepowerforitsenergyneedswillbeabletomanageitsforeignpolicyindependentlyofhowitutilizesenergy.
However,giventheseparationinfuelsbetweenelectricitygenerationandtransportation,policymakersshouldnotbedeludedintothinkingthatincreasingrenewableelectricitygenerationwillautomaticallyincreaseenergysecurity.ere
alsoneedstobeacoherentstrategytousemorerenewablepowerintransportation.Onlybygivingconsumersachoiceabouthowtofueltheircarswillpolicymakersbeabletobreakthegripthatoilhasontransportation.
IntheUnitedStates,transportationisprimarilybyautomobiles,soanyproposaltousemorerenewableenergyintransportationmustbeginbyeitherelectrifyingtheautoeetorsignicantlyincreasingtheavailabilityanduseofethanolandbiodiesel.
Economic Stability
Renewablepowerreceivessubsidies,andinsomecases,verygenerousones.Ofthevetypesofrenewablepower,onlyconventionalhydroelectricisconsistentlycompetitiveoncostofgenerationwithfossilfuels.However,thedemonstrated
benetsofgeneratingelectricitywithoutusingapollutingfuelareabenetthatthegovernmenthasaninterestinpromoting.
eproblemwiththerenewableproductiontaxcreditandanyothersubsidiesisnotthatthegovernmentispickingwinnersandlosers,butthatitschoicesareinconsistent.Forbusinessesandutilitiestomakemulti-yearinvestmentsinlarge-scalerenewableenergy,theyneedmorecertaintythantheconsistentbipartisanbrinksmanshipoverwhethertoextendthesesubsidiesforonemoreyear.
Inareasofthecountrywithconsistentandstrongwinds,installingnewwindturbinesisalreadypricecompetitivewithnewfossil-fuelgeneration,withoutsubsidies.However,windpowerpresentstwoproblemsofeconomicstability:intermittencyandgridstability.Toovercometheseproblemswillrequiretheelectricitygridtomodernizefromits19th
centuryrootsintoamodernsmartgrid.
Withasmartgrid,installedenergystoragefacilities,suchasbatteriesorywheels,willstoreelectricityfortimeswhenitismostneededandcomputerscandirectelectricityalonglong-distancehigh-voltagelinesfromareaswherethewindisblowingtoareasthatneedelectricity.
AsmentionedintheFossilFuelschapter,thissmartgridshouldbepairedwithnaturalgasturbinepowerplantsthat
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caneasilyincreasepowertomatchuctuatingloadlevels.Hydroelectricpowercanalsobeeasilystoredfortimesofpeakload.
Solarpowerseconomicbenetisitscompactnessandversatility.Itdoesnotrequirelarge,expensivesolararraysgeneratepower.Instead,smallunitscanbeinstalledtoosetthecostsofelectricity.Withproperlegalregulations(nimplementedinallstates),consumerscaninstallsolarpowerontheirpropertylikelyontheirroofanddefraythemonthlycostofelectricity.Attimesoflowhouseholdusage,theycanevenselltheelectricitybacktothegrid.
Environmental Sustainability
Ingeneral,renewablepowerproducesnogreenhousegasemissions.However,thatdoesnotmeanthattheyarewithoenvironmentalcontroversy.
Americasethanolprogram,forexample,iscomingunderintenseandjustiedscrutiny.erearesignicantquestioaboutthelifecycleemissionsofethanol.Eventhoughitcomesfromplants,heavyinputsoffertilizeranduseoffosfuelstoproduceandtransportitmeanthattheminimalbenetinreducedgreenhousegasemissionsmaynotbeworthesubsidiesethanolproductionreceives.Cellulosicethanol,whichisderivedfromgrassesorothersortsofherbaceo
plants,isnotyetinwidespreaduse.Onceitcommerciallyviable,thistechnologyshouldaddresstheenvironmensustainabilityandtheeconomicconcernaboutusingfoodforfuel.
emainenvironmentalproblemswithrenewablepowercomefromthesizeofitsfootprintanditsimpactsonlowildlifeandecosystems.eGrandCouleeDam,forexample,oodeda125squaremilearea,displacingthousandsandpermanentlyendingtheannualsalmonrunuptheColombiaRiver.
Large solar power plants planned for the California deserts are currently coming up against opposition froenvironmentalistswhowanttoprotectendangeredwildlifefromhumanencroachment.
eenvironmentaloppositiontothesitesofsomerenewablepowerplantscomesdowntoprioritization.Isthehealt
oflocalecosystemsmoreimportantthanpromotingnewtechnologiesthatcouldpreventthemanydangersassociatewithclimatechange?
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Conclusions
T
he challenges facing America on how to produce and use the energy it needs foreveryaspectofmodernlifearenotnew.elasttimetheUnitedStatesfacedaseries
ofchoicesaboutitsenergypolicywasintheenergycrisesofthe1970s,whichweretraumatic to the United States,with oil price spikes, shortages of gasoline, ination, andnuclearscares.Decisionsaboutenergyproductionandusemadeinresponsetothesecriseshadfar-reachingconsequencesforAmericasenergyinfrastructure,itseconomy,anditsforeignpolicy.
Today,Americaisfacingsomeofthesamechallengesasconcernsaboutenergysecurityareonceagainatthetopoftheagenda.However,thenewcomplicationdealingwithachangingclimatemeansthatgreenhousegasemissionsareanaddedconcern.
Noneofthechallengesareinsurmountable,buttheydorequirethatpeopleingovernmentandintheprivatesectormakechoicesandpriorities.Simplyretainingthestatusquoprovidesintolerably high levels of risk to energy security, economic stability, and environmentalsustainability.
eUnitedStatescannotaordaforeignpolicythatcontinuestobeworriedaboutdistantoilmarkets.Itcannotallowthedollartocontinuetobedebasedbysending$680billionperyeartoforeigncountriessimplytobeallowedtodrive.Itisdangeroustoallowgreenhousegas
emissionstogrowunchecked.
To meet thesechallenges will requirepolicymakers tomake some decisions and set someprioritiesthatwillnotalwaysbepopular.But,inthelong-term,theyareinthebestinterestsofthecountry.
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Endnotes
1 ToreadallofPresidentNixons1974StateoftheUnionAddress,see:http://stateoftheunionaddress.org/1974-richard-nixon(accessedJune22,2011).
2 ToreadallofPresidentCarters1977AddressonEnergyPolicy,seehttp://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/fea-tures/primary-resources/carter-energy/(accessedJune22,2011).
3 UnitedStatesDepartmentofEnergy,StrategicPetroleumReserveProjectManagementOce.Dataavailableathttp:/
www.fe.doe.gov/programs/reserves/spr/index.html(accessedJune22,2011).4 Forafulldiscussiononthemaindriversofclimatechange,seeIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)FourthAssessmentReport,WorkingGroup1,ePhysicalScienceBasis(2007).
5 USEnergyInformationAgency(EIA),EmissionsofGreenhouseGasesintheUnitedStates2009.Reportavailableathttp://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/ghg_report/pdf/0573(2009).pdf.
6 InternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)KeyWorldEnergyStatistics,2008Reportavailableathttp://www.iea.org/textbasnppdf/free/2008/key_stats_2008.pdf.
7 EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA)OriginsoftheEPAhttp://www.epa.gov/aboutepa/history/origins.html(ac-cessedJune22,2011).
8 NationalAeronauticsandSpaceAdministration(NASA),OceofGlobalClimateChange,KeyIndicators.Dataava
ableathttp://climate.nasa.gov/keyIndicators/index.cfm#co2.9 Wynn,Gerald,4degreeswarminglikelywithoutCO2cuts-studyReuters,September28,2009,http://www.reutercom/article/2009/09/28/idUSLP228193(accessedJune22,2011).
10 EIA,PetroleumandOtherLiquids,U.S.ImportsbyCountryofOrigin.Dataavailableathttp://www.eia.gov/dnav/petpet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm.
11 ibid.
12 EIA,WorldOilProduction,SaudiArabia.Dataavailableathttp://www.eia.gov/countries/index.cfm?view=production
13 Yergin,Daniel, ePrize:eEpicQuestforOil,Money,andPower,NewYork:Simon&Schuster,1991.
14 EIA,PetroleumandOtherLiquids,WorldCrudeOilPrices.Dataavailableathttp://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_
wco_k_w.htm.
15 ibid.
16 U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,InternationalTradeAdministration,TradeStatsExpress.Dataavailableathttp://tse.export.gov/TSE/TSEhome.aspx
17 EIA,EmissionsofGreenhouseGasesintheUnitedStates2009.Reportavailableathttp://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/ghg_report/pdf/0573(2009).pdf.
18 EIA,VoluntaryReportingofGreenhouseGasesProgram.Dataavailableathttp://www.eia.gov/oiaf/1605/coecients.html.
19 DeepWater;eGulfOilDisasterandtheFutureofOshoreDrillingFinalReportoftheNationalCommissionotheBPDeepwaterHorizonOilSpillandOshoreDrilling,2011.Reportavailableathttp://www.oilspillcommission.gov/nal-
report.
20 EIA,Coal,CoalProductionandNumberofMinesbyStateandCoalRank.Dataavailableathttp://www.eia.gov/cneacoal/page/acr/table6.html.
21 U.S.DepartmentofCommerce,InternationalTradeAdministration,TradeStatsExpress.Dataavailableathttp://tse.export.gov/TSE/TSEhome.aspx.
22 EIA,ANNUALENERGYOUTLOOK2011.Reportavailableathttp://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383(2011).p
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23 EIA,ElectricPowerAnnual.Dataavailableathttp://www.eia.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epaxlle1_2.xls.
24 EIA,eCoalTransportationRateDatabase,Dataavailableathttp://www.eia.gov/cneaf/coal/ctrdb/database.html.
25 MostDangerousJobsinAmericaCNN/Money,http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2010/news/1004/gallery.Most_dan-gerous_jobs/index.html(accessedJune22,2011)
26 EIA,VoluntaryReportingofGreenhouseGasesProgram.Dataavailableathttp://www.eia.gov/oiaf/1605/coecients.html.
27 Mufson,Steven,AsNaturalGasGlutLooms,ProducersEyetheWeathereWashingtonPost,June16,2006,http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/15/AR2006061502062.html(accessedJune22,2011).
28 EIA,NaturalGas,ImportsbyCountry.Dataavailableathttp://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_move_impc_s1_m.htm.
29 EIA,VoluntaryReportingofGreenhouseGasesProgram.Dataavailableathttp://www.eia.gov/oiaf/1605/coecients.html.
30 Urbina,IanRegulationLaxasGasWellsTaintedWatershitRiversNewYorkTimes,February26,2011,http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/27/us/27gas.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&hp(accessedJune27,2011).
31 Shalegasfracking:MPscallforsafetyinquiryaftertremorsBBC,June8,2011,http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-eng-land-lancashire-13700575(accessedJune27,2011).
32 EisenhowerPresidentialArchivesDraftofthePresidentialSpeechBeforetheGeneralAssemblyoftheUnitedNationsNovember28,1953.Availableathttp://www.eisenhower.archives.gov/research/digital_documents/Atoms_For_Peace/New%20PDFs/Atoms_for_Peace_Draft.pdf(accessedJune22,2011).
33 EIA,NuclearandUranium,U.S.NuclearStatistics.Dataavailableathttp://www.eia.gov/cneaf/nuclear/page/operation/statoperation.html.
34 AbundantPowerfromAtomSeen;Itwillbetoocheapforourchildrentometer,Strausstellssciencewriters,NewYorkTimes,Sept.17,1954.
35 GreenpeaceInternational,eEconomicsofNuclearPowerSummer2007.Reportavailableathttp://www.green-peace.org/raw/content/international/press/reports/summary-the-economics-of-nucl.pdf.
36 Sapien,Joaquin.WhileNuclearWastePilesUpinU.S.,BillionsinFundtoHandleItSitUnusedProPublica,March30,2011,http://www.propublica.org/article/while-nuclear-waste-piles-up-in-u.s.-billions-in-fund-to-handle-it-sits-unu/single(ac-cessedJune22,2011).
37 BlueRibbonCommissiononAmericasNuclearFutureDraftRecommendationsMay19,2011,http://brc.gov/index.php?q=announcement/brc-releases-its-draft-recommendations-may-13(accessedJune22,2011).
38 eNationalIgnitionFacilityeBostonGlobe,October8,2010,http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2010/10/the_national_ignition_facility.html(accessedJune22,2011).
39 AmericanSecurityProjectFUSIONENERGY:AnOpportunityforAmericanLeadershipandSecurityJanuary24,2011.Reportavailableathttp://americansecurityproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/White-Paper-on-Fusion-Final-21.pdf.
40 Stine,DeborahD.eManhattanProject,theApolloProgram,andFederalEnergyTechnologyR&DPrograms:AComparativeAnalysisCongressionalResearchService,June30,2009.Reportavailableathttp://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34645.pdf.
41 EIA,ElectricPowerAnnual.Dataavailableathttp://www.eia.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epaxlle1_2.xls.
42 ibid.
43 ibid.
44 ibid.
45 USDeptofEnergy,TappingintoWaveandTidalOceanPower:15%WaterPowerby2030Jan27,2012http://energy.gov/articles/tapping-wave-and-tidal-ocean-power-15-water-power-2030
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Bldg a new Aeca Aeal
Te American Security Project (ASP) is a nonpartisan initiative to educate
the American public about the changing nature o national security in the
21st century.
Gone are the days when a nations strength could be measured by bombers
and battleships. Security in this new era requires a New American Arsenal
harnessing all o Americas strengths: the orce o our diplomacy; the might o
our military; the vigor o our economy; and the power o our ideals.
We believe that America must lead other nations in the pursuit o our
common goals and shared security. We must conront international
challenges with all the tools at our disposal. We must address emerging
problems beore they become security crises. And to do this, we must orge a
new bipartisan consensus at home.
ASP brings together prominent American leaders, current and ormer
members o Congress, retired military ocers, and ormer government
ocials. Sta direct research on a broad range o issues and engages and
empowers the American public by taking its fndings directly to them.
We live in a time when the threats to our security are as complex and diverse
as terrorism, the spread o weapons o mass destruction, climate change,ailed and ailing states, disease, and pandemics. Te same-old solutions
and partisan bickering wont do. America needs an honest dialogue about
security that is as robust as it is realistic.
ASP exists to promote that dialogue, to orge consensus, and to spur
constructive action so that America meets the challenges to its security while
seizing the opportunities the new century oers.
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