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RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness March 2017 Australia Agribusiness Monthly March 2017

Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

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Page 1: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness March 2017

Australia

Agribusiness Monthly March 2017

Page 2: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Grains & Oilseeds Rabobank expects CBOT wheat prices to pick up only modestly through the balance of 2017.

Dairy Rabobank expects export-orientated milk prices to gradually increase in 2017/18.

Beef The next couple of months will be a litmus test for the rebuilding effort in southern states.

Sheepmeat The potential for a further price rally may be limited by falling beef prices and lagging export unit values.

Sugar April will bring considerable potential for price volatility in global sugar markets.

Cotton A firmness in futures prices and an expected weaker AUD bumps the short-term price outlook.

Wool The EMI has soared up to AUc 1,522/kg clean this month, a 29-year high.

Wine Vintage 2017 is shaping up well, while challenges in the UK market persist, increasing focus on other markets.

Horticulture Unsettled weather continues to feed into volatility in fruit and vegetable markets, while nut production climbs.

Fertiliser The global price rally may be nearing its peak.

FX Rabobank expects the AUD/USD rate to slip over the next 12 months.

Oil OPEC may look to extend cuts into the back half of the year to regenerate some price lift.

Commodity Outlook

Page 3: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Much of Eastern Australia continued to experience an unusually dry and hot summer through to the end of February.

The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather conditions took their toll on confidence in many sectors, particularly in cotton growing regions.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is forecasting a better than even chance of hot and dry conditions for most key agricultural regions over the March to May period.

After watching for a La Niña throughout 2016, the BOM has switched to ‘watch’ status for an El Niño event in 2017. However, it notes that model accuracy is lower in Autumn than through other times of the year.

Climate: Turning Dry

Source: BOM, Rabobank 2017

Total rainfall month to date, 1-13 March 2017

What to watch

• The BOM’s ENSO outlook is currently at El Niño WATCH, which means the likelihood of El Niño forming this year is 50%.

Page 4: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Autumn Likely to Be Warm and Dry

Source: BOM, Rabobank 2017 Source: BOM, Rabobank 2017

Chance of exceeding median rainfall, March to May 2017

El Niño status at WATCH

Page 5: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Grains & Oilseeds

What to Watch

• With ample supply of grain limiting price upside in coming months, the value of the Australian dollar will likely be the driver in any shifts in local wheat prices in coming months.

• While the world currently faces a shortage of high protein wheat, supply will likely improve considerably when the Northern Hemisphere crop comes back online in June.

Wheat Prices May Have Troughed, but Any Recovery Will Be LimitedThe Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) December wheat price contract fell 4% in the month to 15 March, influenced in part by the stronger US dollar and another lift in production estimates in the March USDA report. Prices are now 18% shy of the peak reached in June of last year.

The market remains burdened by record stocks of corn, soy and wheat.

Rabobank expects CBOT wheat prices to pick up modestly through the balance of 2017. This view is based on the assumption of a 2% decline in global production in the 2017/18 season, and a US market deficit caused by a cut in acreage.

However, the speed and extent of any price recovery is likely to be limited. With the world awash with grains, a significant regional supply shock would be required to throw the global market into deficit in 2017/18 – making a break in prices at about USc 500/bu unlikely.

Estimates of the 2016 Australian wheat crop have converged, with both the USDA and ABARE now estimating that 35 million tonnes were harvested – up 45% on the prior year and a record for Australia.

Page 6: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Wheat Prices Remain Suppressed

Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2017 Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2017

Australian wheat price, Mar 2016- Mar 2017 Newcastle Non-GM Canola, Mar 2016 - Mar 2017

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Non-GM Canola Newcastle

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ASX Jan 18 WM Mill wheat contract

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Page 7: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Dairy

Farmer Margins to Recover GraduallySo far this season (to January), Australian milk production has fallen 8.2%. The majority of the loss has been confined to export-orientated regions. Milk supply losses have started to slow with production down 5.5% over the past three months.

As the 2016/17 season winds down, farmer margins remain pressured. Encouragingly, farmer confidence has improved on the back of expectations for lower feed costs and higher milk prices, with a likely return to profitability in 2017/18.

Rabobank expects export-orientated milk prices to gradually increase in 2017/18, with dairy farmers also to benefit from a better supply of home-grown feed and affordable supplementary feed.

A timely autumn break will still be critical. However, there is a looming risk of an El Niño event and increasing likelihood of a drier than normal autumn.

Rabobank expects a modest recovery (+4%) in milk supply in 2017/18. The capacity to recover is constrained by lower herd sizes and willingness and ability for investment on-farm.

What to watch• Murray Goulburn continues to deal with a severely reduced milk supply base, and the outcomes

of an operational review will be monitored with interest.

• Global markets remain finely balanced with changes in export supply dictating price movements. Production seasons are winding down in Oceania, and the focus shifts to the Northern Hemisphere. US milk producers are building herds, while Dutch farmers are needing to cull cows to meet phosphate regulations.

Page 8: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Milk Production Remains Weak in Most Export Regions

Source: USDA, Rabobank 2017 Source: Rabobank 2017

Latest month Last three months

EU -2.8% (December) -4.0%

US 2.5% (August) 2.4%

Australia -5.9% (January) -5.5%

NZ -3% (2016/17 season-to-date estimate)

Global dairy prices, 2013-2017 Production growth key exporting regions

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Page 9: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Beef

Prices EaseCattle prices continued to ease into March with the drier conditions over summer taking some of the heat out of producer restocking demand. The EYCI has dropped 6% from the peak in early February to sit at AUD 6.14/kg cwt on 9 March. Encouragingly, US import prices for 90cl cow meat increased 9% since the beginning of the year. However, new supplies of US cattle are expected to come to market shortly causing prices to fall again. Australian cattle prices are expected to continue easing as the balance of domestic demand and global prices plays out.

January slaughter was down 10% YOY at 468,000 head. Female slaughter as a proportion of the total fell to 41% in January, the lowest level since 2012 and well into levels associated with herd rebuilding. Initial slaughter numbers for February and March continue to remain low, reflecting the ongoing low cattle numbers.

Export volumes continue to be low, reflecting the lower production volumes. Exports for February were down 18% YOY at 74,816 tonnes swt. South Korea has been a strong market for Australia, experiencing YOY growth for the last four years - despite exports to all markets falling 23% in 2016. However, February export volumes dropped 27%. It is unclear if this is a short-term drop following a build up of stocks or a longer-term trend.

The numbers of cattle on Australian feedlots increased in the December quarter, returning to levels above 900,000 head. Drier conditions, cheap grain prices and lower intakes during the September quarter are believed to be drivers for the return above 900,000 head.

What to watch• The next couple of months will be a litmus test for the rebuilding effort in southern states

and the potential beef production recovery timeframe. Buyer interest at upcoming weaner sales will give a good indication on whether producers are interested in rapidly rebuilding their herd through purchases or more organically through natural growth.

Page 10: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Prices Ease off the Back of a Hot Summer

Eastern Young Cattle Indicator

Source: MLA, Rabobank 2017 Source: DA, Rabobank 2017

Beef exports to Korea increasing YOY

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750

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

AU

D c

/kg

cwt

2015 2016 2017 5 yr ave

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total Japan USA Korea

Page 11: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Sheepmeat

Phenomenal Start to the YearDespite lamb slaughter and production figures being slightly higher than 2016 levels, March prices are currently 22% higher than the same time last year and 22% higher than the five-year average. The ESTLI was AUD 6.22/kg cwt on 16 March after starting the year strongly and soaring to 6.64/kg in mid February. Sheep prices and restocker lamb prices are performing particularly well, an indication that restocking is occurring.

The reduced lamb slaughter in Q3 2016 due to wet conditions, has been overcome with higher numbers in late 2016. Slaughter numbers for the six months to January 2017 are almost identical to the six months to January 2016. Lamb slaughter in January was 2% higher YOY. Sheep slaughter, however, continues to fall with January numbers down 11% YOY, another sign of rebuilding.

Lamb exports fell slightly (down 3% YOY) in February to 21,474 tonnes swt after three strong months. Mutton exports fell 13% YOY in February to 12,834 tonnes swt, the ninth month in a row of YOY falls. The US continues to perform well and encouragingly lamb exports to China have increased. Drought in inner Mongolia in 2016 has reduced their sheepmeat production and, as a result, Chinese sheepmeat imports are expected to be higher in 2017.

What to watch

• Prices, on average, increase 8% between March and June when they peak. With prices currently at last year’s peaks, another 8% would mean an ESTLI of 6.59/kg cwt in June, a new record. Beef prices, however, are starting to fall and per unit export values for lamb up until January have not seen the same increases (apart from China) that domestic sheep prices have, suggesting the potential for further price increases will be limited.

Page 12: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Phenomenal Prices and Production Remains StrongEastern States Trade Lamb Indicator

Source: MLA, Rabobank 2017 Source: ABS, Rabobank 2017

Australian Lamb Production

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Page 13: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Sugar

Price Deflation and Dry Conditions Dent ConfidenceSugar prices have continued to drift downwards, with the ICE#11 contract down 10% in the month to 16 March, and 23% off the peak reached in October last year. USD prices are now back to around their five-year average.

Downward pressure appears to have come from the liquidation of bought futures by speculators and a stronger US dollar.

While prices remain reasonable by historical standards, Rabobank’s latest rural confidence survey showed confidence in the local sugar industry falling significantly, from 34 percent to 4 percent, a situation that was likely exacerbated by the deteriorating season, especially in the south.

Looking ahead, April will bring considerable potential for price volatility in global sugar markets, as the market digests EU planting numbers and the start of the Brazilian CS crop.

Downside price risk exist in the form of the potential for a large planting number from the EU.

Upside price risk exist in the form of a delayed start to the Brazilian crop.

What to watch• A return to ‘watch’ status for an El Niño event is significant for sugar markets, with the

potential to bring dry conditions to India in late 2017.• The onset and early harvest of the Brazilian crop will be slower than last year given the

much-reduced presence of stand-over cane, the slightly better position of Brazilian mills and a return to more normal weather. This could lend some support to prices at least until the end of April.

Page 14: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Sugar Price Falls Back From October Highs

Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2017

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ICE #11 (LHS) ICE #11 AUD (RHS)

ICE#11 sugar contract price, Mar 2016- Mar 2017

Page 15: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Cotton

Cotton Exceeds ExpectationsICE #2 is at highs above those reached mid last-year, topping this month at the equivalent of AUD 517/bale and sitting at AUD 509/bale at the time of writing. A firmness in futures prices and an expected weaker AUD bumps the short-term price outlook. However, there are signs that price momentum is slowing as global supply and demand heads towards a more even balance. Upwards of 2.6 million tonnes of additional cotton is expected to hit the market in 2017/18 as China continues to sell down its excess reserves. By contrast, consumption is expected to remain stable for the third consecutive year.

Rabobank forecasts the ICE#2 contract to hit the equivalent of AUD 470/bale by Q4 2017.

The Jul/Dec spread in the ICE#2 is at its lowest level in a few weeks, finishing at 308 points last week. Speculative buying may well be impacting the December contract and capping the spread. However, US certified stocks are at a 31-month high, and unless these dissipate it is questionable whether speculators will remain so heavily long on the ICE #2.

January export figures signalled the continued diversification of export destinations for Australian cotton. China retains its dominance, but Vietnam, Thailand and Bangladesh have imported significant volumes of Australian fibre so far in 2017.

International market conditions are favourable coming into the Australian picking season. The Chinese reserve auctions are dispersing around 30,000 tonnes of 2012/13 stocks a day for the next six months, and the low-quality of this offering will require blending - most likely with high-quality US and/or Australian fibre. Meanwhile, India is shipping less cotton onto the international market. This should aid the absorption of Australia’s expected 4 million+ bale crop.

What to watch• Capacity limitations in southern New South Wales. Large yields in the northern valleys may

see delays in picking contractors reaching the south, where cotton will need to be picked quickly this season given the narrow planting window. These capacity challenges, together with heat stress generated by an exceptionally hot summer, may see an increase in lower-grade fibre this season.

Page 16: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Cotton Prices Remain Extremely Firm

Rabobank forecasts the ICE#2 to average USc 68-73/lb over the next 12 months.

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ICE #2 Futures AUD/Bale equivalent (RHS)

ICE#2 Cotton contract price, Mar 2016- Mar 2017

Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2017

Page 17: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Wool

Wool Well above TrendThe Australian Eastern Market Indicator (EMI) has soared up to AUc 1,522/kg clean this month, a level 18.5% higher than this time last year and a 29-year high. Active purchasing by the two largest traders in the Australian market is underlying this trend.

The superfine Merino sector led the price escalation but gains were also made at the finer end of the crossbred segment. Auction competition has been fierce as Chinese mills responded to a booming knitwear market.

Any wool slightly below ideal specifications has seen discounts heavier than usual, indicating a high valuation for quality fibre in the textile industry presently. However, the widening of price gaps between the microns is expected to entice buyers to broader Merino types as the season progresses.

Auction volumes year-to-date are up 5% on last year, and the national offering is expected to be over 40,000 bales each week for the coming month. As stored stocks dwindle, sale offerings have largely been recently shorn wool, with growers taking advantage of the current price levels.

China’s largest buyer has been dominant in the sale rooms this month. This has seen the Chinese share of Australia’s wool exports grow significantly from last year, up 23% in value and 17% in weight so far this season. This has offset the impact of export declines into the Czech Republic, Italy and India, whose buyers have been deterred by the current high prices.

What to watch• The huge variability in the wool types grown in Australia is playing a key role in price

determination. Buyers are finding it increasingly difficult to secure full containers of the same type within a sale week. This decreases the likelihood of forward selling, in fear of being unable to successfully fulfil the contract.

Page 18: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Wool Prices on a Tear

The Australian Eastern Market Indicator is at a 29-year high of AUc 1,522/kg clean

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Australian Wool Market Prices, Jan 2015- Mar 2017

Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2017

Page 19: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Wine

So Far, So Good for Vintage 2017After an unusually wet and slow start to the 2016-17 growing season by recent standards, the 2017 vintage has begun to show great promise as warmer and more settled weather has eventually set in through summer. As we now move into autumn, most production regions are praising the quality they are seeing, as crops have benefitted from a more mild and extended season, while the size of the harvest still looks set to test last year’s levels. On the whole, challenges from disruptive weather events have been relatively limited.

Australian wine exports have ended 2016 posting strong gains in value terms (+7.2% to AUD 2.2 billion) on relatively steady volumes (+0.8% to 750ML). Bottled wine exports rose by 4% in volume and 10% in value, led in particular by stronger demand for more premium bottled red wines in the Chinese market. Some promising growth in bottled wine shipments to other nearby FTA signatory countries was also apparent, with shipments to Japan increasing by 7% and those to the smaller South Korean market rising by 15% in volume terms. Export demand for bulk wine exports was more subdued, falling by 2% in volume and value terms.

As the authority of the UK government to commence Brexit negotiations has now been granted, producer concerns over the weakened value of the UK pound still linger. While more premium bottled wine shipments to this market fared reasonably well in 2016, bulk wine shipments- which constitute the vast majority of export volumes- fell by 6% in volume terms and 14% in value terms. Such developments make reversing the downward trend in the US market all the more important, at a time when the value of US wine imports from New Zealand has just overtaken that ofAustralia.

What to watch US premium wine imports. The Australian industry has been looking to promote its premium

offering much more concertedly to better participate in the premiumisation trend that has characterised the US market for some time. Encouragingly, the value of Australian bottled wines exported to the US in the AUD 10-20 per litre price bracket grew by 49% to AUD 28.4 million in 2016. But it is still early days, considering that over three quarters of the value of Australian bottled wine exported to the US still falls in the AUD 2.50-5.00 price bracket.

Page 20: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Source: Gomberg Fredrikson, Rabobank 2017

US Imports of Bottled and Bulk Wine

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Australia NZ

The value of US imports of bottled and bulk wines from New Zealand have just surpassed that from Australia, pointing to the diverging fortunes of each country’s producers in this important market in recent years.

Page 21: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Horticulture

Extreme Weather Sways MarketsUnsettled weather conditions over large parts of south-east Australia over the past six months continue to have a significant impact on crop production and markets. The difficulty and delays that many field vegetable growers had in planting and nurturing crops have led to increased volatility in market supply and prices, and consequently in grower returns. Fruit growers are also contending with extended growing seasons this year, and while production volumes of many crops looks ample, difficulty in maintaining quality will weigh on pack-out rates for some.

Australia’s major tree nut sectors, namely almonds and macadamias, again look set for record-breaking production years in 2017. Australian almond production is forecast to rise by 6% on the prior year to 85,000 tonnes, while macadamia production is forecast to rise by 4% to around 54,000 tonnes of nut-in-shell (NIS) as calculated at an average moisture content of 10%.

From a market perspective, global almond prices have been trading within a tight range in recent months following a significant downward shift last year. Markets await the USDA forecast for California almond production due in May, which will take stock of nut set with the all-important bloom/pollination period now behind us. Early indications are that bloom has been somewhat negatively affected by the unsettled weather, which would bode well for Australian growers.

Global Macadamia prices are set to remain at or above the record levels of last year as global production struggles to respond to demand growth. While Australian production has pushed to record levels, South African production has been beset by drought in recent years.

What to watch Drought breakers. The prolonged drought in California has recently broken in dramatic

fashion, and some relief has also come to large parts of drought-stricken South Africa, with the notable exception of the Western Cape. These droughts have been acting to constrain production and exports, and providing support to global prices in significant fruit and nut crops such as almonds, macadamias, and citrus amongst others. Their recovery from drought over the next two years and the subsequent impact on global production and trade will be closely watched.

Page 22: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Macadamias Set For Another Record Year

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 2017f

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Production Price

The Australian macadamia industry is looking forward to another year of record growth on the back of a good growing season and strong global prices.

Source: AMA, Rabobank 2017

Page 23: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Fertiliser

Price Rally Nearing PeakGlobal fertiliser prices (particularly urea) have increased in recent months on the back of tighter global export supply. As at mid-March, the global urea price is trading 25% higher compared to the same time last year. These higher prices have passed through to local retail prices. Rabobank is expecting further upside in global prices in the near term.

The timing of the global recovery means local retail prices may rise further in the coming months and impact the upcoming winter crop purchasing window for the Australian supply chain.

However, global prices are expected to see downward pressure in the second half of 2017 once the Northern Hemisphere application season ends. The variables expected to help push prices down include the continued expansion of global fertiliser capacity and weaker raw material costs.

Global potash prices have remained unchanged over the past year as major manufacturers manage production in order to keep supply in balance with sluggish demand across key import markets.

Australian end-users will need to budget for higher nutrient prices; but there is a silver lining for farmers who can delay purchases into mid-2017.

What to watch

• The Australian dollar remains mostly range-bound. Any downward shift in the currency will add further risk to local retail prices.

• Local fertiliser demand will be relatively buoyant. Despite low commodity prices, cropping farmers will be focused on maximising yields.

Page 24: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Increasing likelihood of lower prices in late 2017

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Urea DAP

Global Fertiliser Prices

The key supply factor to monitor for the global urea market will be export volumes from China. Chinese urea exports were down 35% in 2016 versus the previous year. Global benchmark prices remain below historical averages.

Source: Bloomberg , Rabobank 2017

Source: Bloomberg , Rabobank 2017

Page 25: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

FX

Divergent Rate PathsThe US Federal Reserve raised its interest rates by 25bps on 15 March to 0.75-1.00%. This was the third rate increase in the current cycle, though rates remain exceptionally low by historic standards. Rates were increased in recognition that the economy appears to have achieved a sweet spot, reducing the need for monetary policy to remain quite so loose. In Yellen’s own words, “The message is simple: the economy is doing well”.

The Fed has the confidence to boost rates as the country approaches ‘full employment’ (unemployment fell to 4.7% in February) and inflation pushes above the 2% target the Fed has in mind as optimal (inflation hit 2.7% in February).

In addition to raising rates, the Fed outlined that it still thought that two more rate increases would be required over the course of 2017 – outlining a gradual and orderly tightening.

While the Fed tightened the US, the chances of the RBA hiking rates anytime soon were reduced by weak labour force data released in mid March. Unemployment rose to 5.9%: its highest level in more than a year. Labour market deterioration will likely curtail any appetite the RBA may have had to raise rates to help take the steam out of overheating urban property markets.

Despite the divergent paths of monetary policy in Australia and the US, on 16 March, the Australian dollar sat almost exactly where it had 4 weeks prior – worth just under 0.77 USD. Offsetting pressure came in part from rising hard commodity prices.

Rabobank expects the AUD/USD rate to slip to 0.74 over the next 12 months, based on concerns over falling real wages and the chance that the Chinese economy will disappoint.

What to watch• Potential for the US economy to hit at least one bump this year, which would reduce the

number of likely rate hikes. The timing or size of fiscal policy stimulation could yet disappoint, trade conflicts remain a risk and the world economy may contain some negative surprise.

Page 26: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Source: RBA, Rabobank 2017

Australian Dollar Facing opposite Pressures from Rising Commodity Prices and US Rate Hike

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Page 27: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Oil & Freight

Oil Price Falls as US Inventories RiseAfter trading in a narrow band in the opening two month of the year, the price of Brent crude oil fell 10% in the first half of March: to close just above the USD 50/barrel mark mid-month.

The slide wiped out most of the gain achieved since OPEC announced in late 2016 that it would implement its first agreed production cut in eight years.

The market was caught off guard by the release of data showing surging US oil production and rising inventories in that country. Shale production has recovered faster than many anticipated, and with new drills still being opened, production is running ahead of local demand growth.

The data releases also coincided with comments by the Saudi Oil minister that production by OPEC countries was falling slower than anticipated.

Wholesale diesel prices fell modestly. The Sydney average terminal gate diesel price fell slowly in the four weeks to mid March, to sit at AUD 1.15 on 14 March.

After bottoming out in mid February, global freight rates rose almost 60% in the month to 13 March, with the Baltic Dry Index closing that day on 1099. The index is now approaching the level it reached in late 2017.

The rise of freight rates is being attributed by market watchers to stronger demand from China for imported raw materials – partly driven by seasonal factors (Chinese construction usually picks up in April).

What to watch

• Will OPEC extend production cuts? Members had agreed to reduce production for the first six months of 2017. If prices fail to recover from current levels, they may look to extend these cuts into the back half of the year to generate some price lift.

• The fragility of recent gains in the BDI . Commentators note the potential for Chinese demand for freight to drop quickly after its seasonal peak, given that iron ore inventories are already high in that country.

Page 28: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Oil Price Falls, but Freight Continues Its Rally

Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2017 Source: Bloomberg, Rabobank 2017

Brent Crude oil price, Mar 2016 - Mar 2017 Baltic Dry Index, Mar 2016- Mar 2017

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

Inde

x

35

40

45

50

55

60

USD

/BBL

Page 29: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

As of 14/03/2017 Unit MOM Current Last month Last year Grains & oilseeds

CBOT wheat USc/bushel ▼ 412 450 472CBOT soybeans USc/bushel ▼ 994 1,045 888CBOT corn USc/bushel ▼ 354 374 367Australian ASX EC Wheat AUD/tonne • 228 228 276Australian Canola AUD/tonne ▼ 536 538 497

Beef marketsEastern Young Cattle Indicator AUc/kg cwt ▼ 614 640 594Feeder Steer AUc/kg lwt ▼ 327 349 317North Island Bull 300kg NZc/kg cwt ▲ 545 505 540South Island Bull 300kg NZc/kg cwt ▲ 500 490 490

Sheepmeat marketsEastern States Trade Lamb Indicator AUc/kg cwt ▼ 611 618 499North Island Lamb 17.5kg YX NZc/kg cwt ▲ 535 515 490South Island Lamb 17.5kg YX NZc/kg cwt ▲ 530 525 480

Venison marketsNorth Island Stag NZc/kg cwt ▲ 800 790 730South Island Stag NZc/kg cwt ▲ 825 790 735

Dairy MarketsButter USD/tonne FOB ▲ 4,675 4,425 2,875Skim Milk Powder USD/tonne FOB ▲ 2,550 2,400 1,763Whole Milk Powder USD/tonne FOB ▼ 3,112 3,287 2,000Cheddar USD/tonne FOB ▲ 3,838 3,775 2,750

Agri Price Dashboard

Page 30: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

As of 14/03/2017 Unit MOM Current Last month Last year Cotton markets

Cotlook A Index USc/lb ▲ 87 87 66ICE No.2 NY Futures (nearby contract) USc/lb ▲ 76.9 76.32 58.29

Sugar marketsICE Sugar No.11 USc/lb ▼ 18.2 20.5 15.4ICE Sugar No.11 (AUD) AUD/tonne ▼ 530 589 452

Wool marketsAustralian Eastern Market Indicator AUc/kg ▲ 1,522 1,438 1,223NZ Coarse Crossbred Indicator NZc/kg ▲ 396 346 579NZ Fine Crossbred indicator NZc/kg ▲ 424 359 590

FertiliserUrea USD/tonne FOB • 275 275 220DAP USD/tonne FOB ▲ 375 360 360Potash USD/tonne FOB ▲ 236 232 315

OtherBaltic Dry Index 1000=1985 ▲ 1,099 685 393Brent Crude Oil USD/bbl ▼ 56 56 41

Economics/currencyAUD vs. USD ▼ 0.756 0.766 0.752NZD vs. USD ▼ 0.692 0.717 0.668RBA Official Cash Rate % • 1.50 1.50 2.00NZRB Official Cash Rate % • 1.75 1.75 2.25

Agri Price Dashboard

Page 31: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness – Australia and New Zealand

Tim HuntHead of Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory, Australia and New Zealand+61 3 9940 [email protected]

Marc SoccioSenior Analyst – Wine, Horticulture & Rural Economics+61 3 9940 [email protected]

Michael HarveySenior Analyst – Dairy and Farm Inputs+61 3 9940 [email protected]

Angus Gidley-BairdSenior Analyst – Animal Proteins+ 61 2 8115 [email protected]

Blake HolgateAnalyst – Animal Proteins and Sustainability+64 3 955 [email protected]

Georgia TwomeyCommodity Analyst+61 2 8115 [email protected]

Emma HigginsDairy Analyst+64 3 961 [email protected]

Maddie ArmstrongBusiness Coordinator+61 2 8115 [email protected]

Felicity TaylorIntern+61 2 8115 [email protected]

Rabobank AustraliaNearest branch call 1300 30 30 33www.rabobank.com.au

Page 32: Agribusiness Monthly March 2017 - Rabobank-AU · The latest Rabobank rural confidence survey showed that weather ... in cotton growing regions. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology

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