A Multi -period Optimization Model for Energy Planning

A MultiA Multi--periodperiod

By: Hamid-Reza Mirza

Supervisors: Ali Elkamel, Peter Douglas, Eric Croiset

Optimization Model Optimization Model for Energy Planning Withfor Energy Planning WithCOCO22 Emission ConsiderationEmission Consideration

Presentation OutlinePresentation OutlinePresentation Outline

• Introduction• Research Objectives• Model Description • Future Work• Closing Remarks

25 May 2007 110th International CO2 Capture Network

Existing Supply Mix In OntarioExisting Supply Mix In OntarioExisting Supply Mix In Ontario

• Coal• Gas/Oil• Nuclear• Renewable

– Hydroelectric– Wind– Biomass

Source: OPA Supply Mix Advice, 200510th International CO2 Capture

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Ontario’s Capacity & Demand cont…OntarioOntario’’s Capacity & Demand s Capacity & Demand contcont……

Source: OPA Supply Mix Advice, 2005

MW

EXISTING NATURAL GAS & OIL

COAL

EXISTING NUCLEAR

EXISTING RENEWABLES

DEMAND

Renewable

Natural Gas & Oil

Nuclear

Coal

25 May 2007310th International CO2 Capture

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Canada’s GHG EmissionsCanadaCanada’’s GHG Emissionss GHG Emissions

Source: Environment Canada, 2005

1990 Baseline596 Mt

Kyoto Target: 6% below 1990 baseline 560 Mt

2003 emissions 740 Mt or

24% above 1990


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Research ObjectiveResearch ObjectiveResearch Objective

• Taking into account time dependent parameters, such as future electricity demand and fuel price fluctuations, what is the optimal mix of electricity supply sources needed to:

– satisfy electricity demand each year– while meeting CO 2 emission targets– at minimum cost


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The PyramidThe PyramidThe Pyramid

25 May 20076

Regionplanning

SystemScheduling

Processintegration/optimization

Unitdesign/modelling

Fortran, Matlab,Aspen (NLP)

Aspen (NLP)

GAMS (LP, NLP, MIP,MINLP)

GAMS (MILP, MINLP)

ToolsInformation

FlowModels

Decisions

10th International CO2 Capture Network

Current WorkCurrent WorkCurrent Work

• Current work involves development of a deterministic multi-period planning model that will is implemented in GAMS.

• The model will take into account several time dependent parameters and variables that may change over time.


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Power Generating OptionsPower Generating OptionsPower Generating Options

• Existing Power Stations– The model considers the option to:

Fuel Balance Fuel-Switch Carbon Capture & Storage


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CO2 Storage in OntarioCO2 Storage in OntarioCO2 Storage in Ontario

25 May 2007

Lennox(2,100 MW)

Thunder Bay(360 MW)

Atikokan(211 MW)

ONTARIO

QUEBEC

MANATOBA

Lake Huron

Lakeview(1,148 MW)

Lambton(1,948 MW)

Nanticoke(3,920 MW)

LakeErie

• Two potential reservoirs = Lake Huron and Lake Erie

• Economic estimates (Shafeen, Croiset, Douglas, 2003)

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Power Generating Options cont…Power Generating Options contPower Generating Options cont……

• New Power Plants– The power generating technologies

considered are:• Pulverized coal (PC)• Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC)• Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC)• New Nuclear

+ CCS+ CCS

+ CCS


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Model InputsModel InputsModel Inputs

• Forecasted energy demand• Fixed O&M cost• Variable O&M cost• Fuel price fluctuations• Capital cost of new plants• Construction lead time• Energy conservation initiatives• Annual CO2 emission targets• Cost carbon capture and storage• Annual budget (if specified) • Cost of CO2 credits

Source: Electricity Demand in Ontario, ICF ConsultingSource: Energy Future Project, National Energy BoardSource: OPA Supply Mix, 2005


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Objective FunctionObjective FunctionObjective Function

i : POWER PLANT j : FUEL (COAL/ NG) k : CAPTURE PROCESS l : LOAD (BASE/PEAK) t: TIME (years)

444444 3444444 214444444 34444444 21

444 3444 214444 34444 21444 3444 21

444 3444 21444 3444 21434214444 34444 21

44444444 344444444 214444444 34444444 21

plantspowernewfortstorageandcaptureCarbon

ltnewiltikt

Pi l tii

plantspowerexistingfortstorageandcaptureCarbon

ltijktF

Fi j k liktij

ti

creditsemissionCOgpurchaofCost

tt

t

plantpowernewfortFuel

ltnewilt

newi

Pi l tit

plantpowernewoftMOVariable

ltnewilt

Pi l t

newit

plantpowernewoftMOFixed

newit

Pi t

newi

newit

plantpowernewfortcapital

itnewi

Pi t

newit

switchingfuelfortretrofit

itFi t

it

plantsfuelfossilfortFuel

ltFijlt

Fij

Fi j l tjt

plantspowerexistingoftMOVariable

ltNFilt

NFi l t

NFitlt

Fijlt

Fi j l t

Fijt

plantspowerexistingoftMOFixed

NFit

NFi

NFi t

NFitijt

Fij

Fi j t

Fijt

PCOQPCOQ

CCostPGUPV

CFCSRPGU

PVPVCFCFOF

capnewijlt

newnew

newnew

coscos

2sincoscos&

cos&coscoscos

cos&cos&

)2()2(

)()(

εε ∑ ∑∑∑∑∑∑∑

∑∑ ∑∑∑ ∑∑

∑ ∑∑ ∑∑∑∑∑∑∑

∑∑∑∑∑∑∑∑∑∑∑∑

−∈∈

∈∈

∈∈∈∈

∈∈∈∈

+

+++

++++

++++=

Model OutputModel OutputModel Output

• Output data from each boiler:– Energy production for each year– CO2 Emissions for each year– Whether Carbon Capture should be put online, and in which year– What type of Carbon Capture technology to install– CO2 storage site– Whether fuel-switching should be implemented, and in which

year

• Year in which construction of new power plant should commence

• Annual expenditure for entire fleet• Annual Cost of Electricity (COE)• Annual out-of-province imports


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Model StatisticsModel StatisticsModel Statistics

Current Model

SINGLE EQUATIONS: 42,204 SINGLE VARIABLES: 25,526DISCRETE VARIABLES : 9,950

GENERATION TIME = 26 Hours

Previous Model (Haslenda’s )

SINGLE EQUATIONS: 1,325SINGLE VARIABLES: 706DISCRETE VARIABLES: 265

GENERATION TIME = 0.031 SEC


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SummarySummarySummary

• A deterministic multi-period model has been developed for energy planning

• Model finds the optimal mix of electricity supply sources needed to satisfy electricity demand each year, while meeting CO2 emission targets, at a minimum cost

• Model takes into account several time-depending variables and parameters


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Future WorkFuture WorkFuture Work

• Examine other case studies• Consider additional pollutants (NOx, SO2,

Hg)• Extend the current deterministic model into

a stochastic formulation • CCS pipeline network optimization

1625 May 2007


Closing RemarksClosing RemarksClosing Remarks

• Research supervisors:• Eric Croiset• Peter Douglas• Ali Elkamel

• Financial support:– Ontario Power Generation (OPG)

– NRCan

– NSREC

1725 May 2007


QUESTIONS & ANSWERSEnd of Presentation

2125 May 2007


Documents

A Multi -period Optimization Model for Energy Planning