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Population, Rising Expectations, Aging, Mobility & Employment

Presented at the General Assembly of the World Academy of Art & Science,

Zagreb, Croatia, November 18-20, 2005

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Population Blow-up

• Driving force for development is social & psychological, not biological or environmental

• The blow-up marks the transition from quantitative to qualitative development.

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Social Development Process

“Life evolves by consciousness. Consciousness evolves by organization.”

Sri Aurobindo

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Social Development Cycle

Subconscious Will of the Social Collective

Conscious Aspiration & Initiative of Pioneering

Individuals

Social Organization by Collective to Support &

Replicate Initiatives

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Some Evolutionary Organizations

• Language

• Military

• Religion

• Money

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Social Development Spiral

Physical

Mental

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Transition from Physical to Mental Evolution

Physical replication Qualitative enhancement

Heredity Learning

Survival-orientation Rising aspirations

Social stability Rapid development

Material resources Knowledge resources

Collective conformity Emergence of Individuality

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Mental Organizations are Evolving Rapidly

• Education

• Science

• Technology

• Internet

• Values– Freedom– Respect for the individual

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Source of all these organizations is the human mind, human

resourcefulness.

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Aspirations are Rising Rapidly

• Demographic Revolution coincides with a “Revolution of Rising Expectations”

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Impact of Rising Expectations

• Youth want and demand more• Quest for greater freedom • Consumerism• Education madness in Asia • Urge for upward social mobility• Smaller families resulting in shrinking of population in

industrialized countries• Impetus to mobility & immigration • Education, training and social attitudes not changing fast

enough to keep pace• Source of social unrest & stimulus to terrorism

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Impact on Employment

• Higher job expectations

• Indian youth with a little school education refuse farm work

• US youth shun factory work

• Skill-job mismatches

• High youth unemployment

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Aging in High Income Countries

• More effective social organization supports longer life expectancy

• Over 60 years population will increase from 8% to 19% by 2050

• Number of children will drop by 33%

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Aging of Europe (EU25)

• Population over 65 years2000 71 million2030 110 million

• Over 65 to working age pop2000 23%2030 39%

• Working age population 2000 303 million 2030 280 million

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Impact of Aging on Employment

• Significant labor and skill shortages will develop in OECD countries unless immigration policies are dramatically liberalized or large numbers of manufacturing and service jobs are shifted overseas.

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Aging and Immigration (EU15)

• Shortage of workers spurs demand for workers from lower income countries.

• UN study released in March 2000 estimates EU15 would have to accept 150 million new immigrants over the next 25 years in order to maintain present levels of working and tax-paying population.

• Another estimate projects net inflow of 68 million.

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USA

• By 2013, labour-force growth = 0

• Forecasts shortage of 17 million working

age people by 2020.

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Japan

• 33 million people aged 65 or more within a decade

• UN estimates Japan would need to admit 600,000 immigrants annually for the next 50 years in order to maintain the size of its working population at the 1995 level.

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China vs. India in 2020

• China -- shortage of 10 million

• India -- surplus of 47 million

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Population living outside country of birth

• 1985 – 105 million

• 2000 – 175 million (3% of world pop)

• 67% increase during period when total world population only increased by 26%.

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International Migration

• To USA averaging about 1 million/year

• 2 million per year net gain to most-

developed regions over the next 50 years.

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UK Migration for Employment

• 1.44 million graduates left UK for higher paid jobs in US, Canada, Australia and EU

• 1.26 million graduates immigrated to UK in seach of better jobs.

• 16% UK graduates migrate vs. 3.4% in France (lowest)

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Migration from Developing to OECD Countries 1990-2000

• Migrants to OECD with some college education

almost doubled to about 12 million in 10 years

• 25-50% of college-educated of Ghana,

Mozambique, Kenya, Uganda, Nicaragua and El

Salvador live in OECD.

• 80%+ for Haiti and Jamaica

• 5%> for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia

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India’s Reverse Brain Drain

• Non-residents spur transfer of technology and business practices.

• Non-residents spur growth of business back home.

• Exit of talents raises domestic salary scales.

• Non-residents are returning home.• Non-resident remittances are major source

of investment -- $8 billion a year.

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Conclusions

• Rising expectations & rapid advances in social organization are driving the slow down in population growth & the aging of the population resulting in labor and skill shortages in OECD countries and opening up opportunities for migration and employment for developing countries.

• This phenomena marks the transition from the physical to the mental stage of social evolution.