Vietnam Agricultural Report Research Rice Market Review and Analysis

Vietnam Rice Report – November 2014

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Project

Vietnam Agricultural Report Research

November 2014 Rice Market Review and Analysis

Research duration: from 1st October to 8th November 2014.

Reported by: Ho Cao Viet (PhD)

Submission of draft report for review: 7th November 2014.

Submission of full report: 8th November 2014.


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Table of Contents

1. Introduction ..................................................................................... 4

2. Hot topics of November 2014 ............................................................. 4

3. Weather condition and its impacts to rice production ............................. 8

3.1 Weather forecasting on November 2014 .............................................. 8

3.2 Impacts of weather to agriculture ..................................................... 10

4. Situation of rice production-consumption in Vietnam and global market . 10

4.1 Progress stages, crop conditions ...................................................... 10

4.2 Demands in domestic, exportation & importation ............................... 15

4.3 Domestic prices and Market trends ................................................... 22

4.4 Export prices and Market trends ....................................................... 24

4.5 Analysis, Opinion, and Prediction ...................................................... 26

4.6 Other related news ......................................................................... 27


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List of tables

Table 1. Forecast of temperature and precipitation on November 2014 in Vietnam .................. 9

Table 2. Sowing and harvesting area of Mua crop in the North provinces (up to 15th October,

2014) .......................................................................................................................... 12

Table 3. Rice sowing and harvesting area in AW & Mua crop by region (up to 15th October 2014)

.................................................................................................................................. 13

Table 4. Sowing area of AW, Mua rice crop in the South provinces (up to 15th October 2014) . 14

Table 5. Weekly rice exportation (Mar, 2014 to 2nd week of October 2014) .......................... 17

Table 6. Monthly rice exportation (Jan, 2013 to September, 2014) ..................................... 18

Table 7. Rice exportation by import country in September, 2014. ....................................... 19

Table 8. Fluctuation of rice price in the MRD market (Aug to 30th Oct 2014) ......................... 23

Table 9. Rice prices quote of Vietnam, Thailand in the world market (1st week of October to 4th

November, 2014) ......................................................................................................... 25

List of figures

Figure 1 Vietnam rice export during 1st to 16th October 2014 ................................................ 5

Figure 2. Average rice wholesale prices in Vietnam, January to October. 2014 ........................ 7

Figure 5. Forecast of precipitation mean on October, 2014 ................................................... 8

Figure 5. Forecast of temperature mean on October, 2014 ................................................... 8

Figure 6. Vietnam – Exported price of rice in first 10 months of 2014 (from January to 16th

October) ...................................................................................................................... 15

Figure 7. Target markets of Vietnam rice by quantity in first 9 months of 2014. ................... 20

Figure 8. Target markets of Vietnam rice by value in first 9 months of 2014. ....................... 20

Figure 9. Exported price of Vietnam rice by continent/region in first 9 months of 2014. ......... 21

Figure 10. Percentage of Vietnam rice exported to Asia market in first 9 months 2014 .......... 21

Figure 11. Percentage of rice quantity imported by Asia countries’ market in September 2014 22

Figure 12. Fluctuation of rice price in domestic by grade from March to October 2014 ........... 22

Figure 13. Comparison of long-grain paddy price in domestic during March to 30th of October

2014. .......................................................................................................................... 23


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1. Introduction

The database and information used in report were collected since October

2014 from different official sources as well as direct contacts to experts who

involved to rice sector and rice farmers in MRD.

Information is updated and bearing the major events and topics of rice

production and consumption in Vietnam in referring to the global market as

well as the critical analysis of authors and rice specialists.

2. Hot topics of November 2014

Vietnam exported around 4.927 million tons of rice during 1st January to 16th

October 2014, down about 14% from about 5.76 million tons of rice

exported during January - October, 2013 (According to data of VFA).

Average rice export price so far in this year stands at about $433 per ton

(FOB), up about $3 per ton from same time last year.

Until middle of October 2014, Vietnam exported around 139,213 thousand

tons of rice, down about 74% from around 537,066 tons rice exported in full

month of October 2013, and down about 75% from around 545,362 tons

rice exported in full month of September 2014. Average export prices in

September stands at about $458 per ton, up about 5% per ton from a year

ago, and up about 4% per ton from a month ago (According VFA and

Oryza.com) (Figure 1).

FAO forecasts Vietnam's 2014 rice exports to increase to around 6.5 million

tons, down about 2% from around 6.65 million tons exported in 2013 due to

increased competition from Thailand, India and Pakistan.

FAO also forecasts Vietnam's 2014 total paddy production at a record 44.5

million tons (around 27.8 million tons, basis milled), slightly down compared

to last year's 43.86 million tons (around 27.4 million tons, basis milled). The

increase is attributed to higher than expected output from the 2013-14 WS

rice crop due to convenient weather conditions and adequate supplies of


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irrigation water during dry season. However, the harvesting season of SA

rice crop decline slightly from last year due to a small contraction in planted

area following government's efforts to shift paddy area to other cash crops

such as maize and soybeans, in order to avoid the paddy over-production

and prevent downward pressure on prices. Besides that, the other source of

rice information - USDA estimates Vietnam to produce around 28 million

tons of rice, basis milled (around 45 million tons, basis paddy) and export

around 6.7 million tons in 2014.

The wholesale rice prices of rice in Vietnam continued to decline in October

2014 for the second consecutive month after increasing for three

consecutive months since June 2014 due to strong import demand,

particularly from China. Average wholesale price of 25% broken white rice

reached around VND 8.05 million (around $380) per ton in October 2014,

down about 4% from around VND 8.39 million (around $400) per ton in

September 2014, but up about 12% from around VND 7.19 million (around

$340) per ton in October 2013 (According to www.oryza.com) (Figure 2).

Figure 1 Vietnam rice export during 1st to 16th October 2014

http://www.oryza.com/


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According to the local news, rice experts in Vietnam have urged farmers to

move away from producing and exporting low-and-medium grade rice and

focus on high grade rice production and exports. In fact, in nearly two

decades ago, Vietnam rice farmers have increased the productivity of paddy

rice as well as the exports volume of low-and-medium grade. In the

present, the low-grade rice accounts for over 40% of Vietnam's rice export

volume. In term of long-term competition, this is a not good outcome for

Vietnamese rice sector.

All rice experts in Vietnam stated that, in recent years, other countries in

Asia such as India, Myanmar and Cambodia have also increased supplies of

low-and-medium grade rice in the international market and Vietnam has

been facing a rivalry competition from these rice competitors and producers.

As a result, the Vietnamese rice enterprises have reduced selling price of rice

in the world market and they pay low profits to rice farmers. Meanwhile, the

costs of production have increased in recent years.

Experts in Vietnam Center for Economic and Policy Research (VEPR) stated

in a recent workshop that Vietnamese government regulations have also

been barring farmers from producing and exporting certain varieties of rice,

which could earn good profits to them. An agronomist added that the

government should frame new regulations to encourage farmers to grow

niche varieties of rice and export high quality rice. It should lay stress on

improving brand, quality, diversity and prices of Vietnam’s rice (According to

local news).


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Source: www.oryza.com (accessed on 30th October 2014).

Figure 2. Average rice wholesale prices in Vietnam, January to October. 2014

Rice filed land changed to grass pasture for dairy cattle in Cu Chi district – Hochiminh City Photo: Ho Cao Viet, 29

th September 2014

Japanese delegation meeting with People Committee of Tan Thanh Dong commune, Cu Chi district Photo: Ho Cao Viet, 29

th September 2014



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3. Weather condition and its impacts to rice production

3.1 Weather forecasting on November 2014

North:

The average rainfall is approximately above level of the mean of rainfall in 30

previous years from 20-50%. Especially, in Northern delta region the average

rainfall at the same level of 30 previous year from -20% to 20%. The average

temperature is approximately above the mean of temperature in 30 previous

years from 0.5 to 1.0oC (NCHMF, October 2014).

Central coastal:

In the Central Northern provinces, average temperature at above level of

previous year varies from 0.5 to 1.0oC. The rainfall is at below level of same

period of 30 previous years, varies from 10% to 40%. (NCHMF, October 2014).

Highland and South:

Average temperature at above level of previous year varies from 0.5 to 1.0oC.

Average rainfall is approximately at below level of previous year, varies from

10% to 40% higher than same period last year. Particularly, in the West

Southern region, the rainfall varies from -20% to 20% compared to previous

years. (NCHMF, October 2014).

Figure 4. Forecast of temperature mean on

October, 2014

Figure 3. Forecast of precipitation mean on

October, 2014


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Table 1. Forecast of temperature and precipitation on November 2014 in Vietnam

Ord. Station

30-years mean

of temperature

(oC)

Forecast of

temperature

(oC)

30-years

mean of

rainfall (mm)

Forecast of

rainfall

(mm)

1 Sơn La 18,2 18,0-19,0 34 30-50

2 Hà Nội 21,4 21,5-22,5 43 30-50

3 Hải Phòng 21,3 21,5-22,5 54 40-70

4 Thanh Hóa 22,4 22,5-23,5 76 40-70

5 Vinh 21,6 21,5-22,5 191 100-200

6 Huế 23,1 23,0-24,0 581 400-500

7 Đà Nẵng 24,0 24,0-25,0 366 250-350

8 Nha Trang 25,0 25,0-26,0 374 250-350

9 Buôn Ma Thuột 22,5 22,5-23,5 93 50-100

10 Châu Đốc 27,3 27,5-28,5 201 150-250

Source: NCHMF, 2014 (accessed on 30th October 2014) (http://www,nchmf,gov,vn)

The monthly hydrological forecasting for rivers in the Central highland and

Southern of Vietnam (1st to 31st October, 2014):

According to NCHMF, in the Central Highland on October, there are 5 times of

flash flooding in the rivers of Phan Rang, Cam Ly and Luy with level of water

varies from 0.7 to 1.8 meters. From province of Quang Binh to Phu Yen,

there was various flooding at level of water from 3.0 to 8.4 meters in the

upstream and from 1.0 to 4.2 meters in the downstream.

In the MRD, level of water in Cuu Long river is higher due to the effects of

extreme tidal. Level of water reached to highest level in Tien river at 3.28

meters and in Hau river at 2.96 meters. It predicts that level of flooding will

be down in November in both Central Highland and Southern regions and it

will not cause any damage to agricultural activities. The small flooding in

MRD has given many chances for farmers in catching fishes and aquacultures

and get incomes.

http://www.nchmf.gov.vn/


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3.2 Impacts of weather to agriculture

In October 2014, the weather does not cause damage to agriculture and it is

very favorable for diversify the fishing activities, particularly in MRD region.

The flash flooding occurs in some provinces of the Central Highland region at

higher level of water varies from 0,7 to 1.8 meters but it does not cause any

extremely damage as prediction because farmers has prepared the dikes and

good management for rice fields (NCHFM, 2014).

Further, since October to the end of November, flash flooding still continue

to occur in overall the country and cold weather will occur in some region of

in the North, therefore it may damage to the agriculture activities and

weather will be extremely difficulties to predict in the same time this year.

Therefore, the farmers in the Northern mountainous and Coastal Centre

region should follow up the weather prediction as well as preparation for

extreme climate change in order to mitigate the losses and negative impacts

(According to prediction of NCHFM, 2014).

4. Situation of rice production-consumption in Vietnam and

global market

4.1 Progress stages, crop conditions

In the North: according to MARD’s monthly report, up to the middle of

October, 2014 in the Northern provinces have harvested 873.9 thousand

hectares of Mua crop, about 74.3% of sowing area and 99.4% compared to

Dairy cow feeding as a diversification activity of rice farmers in the South of Vietnam Photo: Ho Cao Viet, 29

th September 2014 in Cu Chi district, Hochiminh City


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the same time of previous year. Particularly, in the RRD, 485.3 thousand

hectares of Mua rice crop was harvested and it occupied about 86.1% of

sowing area and higher than 2% compared to last year. Generally, the

harvesting season of Mua crop is relatively convenience and given a good

condition for sowing next rice crop of AW. Many provinces have finished

harvesting the Mua crop such as provinces of Vinh Phuc, Ha Nam, Hung

Yen, Ninh Binh, Thai Binh and Ha Noi (Table 2 & 3).

In the South: according to MARD’s data, until to 15th of October 2014, the

harvesting rice area of SA 2014 has completed in this month, but harvested

area was down 13 thousand hectares. However, the total productivity of this

crop increased by 143 thousand tons due to the yield was higher 100 kgs

per hectare compared to previous SA crop. It estimated about 11.2 million

tons of paddy rice in this crops. The low-efficicient rice area of SA crop has

been switched to other cash crops. According to preliminary assessment,

the maize crop generates higher benefit than rice crop in SA (Table 3 & 4).

In the AW rice crop: the sowing area is stable on October 2014 at around

660 thousand hectares, down about 30 thousand hectares at 96%

compared to previous AW crop. The price of paddy in harvesting time is up

about 10% at level of VND 4,800 to 5,000 per kg (Table 3).

In the Mua rice crop: sowing area of Mua crop till to the middle of October

was 612.3 thousand hectares, 85.6% compared to the same time last year.

In which, in MRD about 243 thousand hectares, about 73.5% of previous

year (Table 3).


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Table 2. Sowing and harvesting area of Mua crop in the North provinces (up to

15th October, 2014)

Region/Provinces Sowing area in Mua crop

(hectare)

Harvesting area of Mua crop

(hectare)

North 1,176,690 873,988

RRD 563,958 485,310

Ha Noi 101,950 90,000

Hai Phong 39,448 24,140

Vinh Phuc 27,750 27,750

Bac Ninh 36,432 32,074

Hai Duong 61,954 49,638

Hung Yen 39,399 39,044

Ha Nam 34,200 34,200

Nam Dinh 78,862 60,170

Thai Binh 82,239 79,203

Ninh Binh 38,618 36,700

Quang Ninh 25,938 12,386

Mountainous region 435,628 276,196

Ha Giang 26,893 26,893

Cao Bang 26,833 -

Tuyen Quang 25,428 25,426

Yen Bai 21,043 21,018

Thai Nguyen 42,064 32,117

Phu Tho 33,306 32,203

Bac Giang 59,235 46,715

Lai Chau 23,802 19,533

Dien Bien 39,000 12,069

Son La 45,000 5,782

Hoa Binh 23,947 23,500

North Central 177,196 112,482

Thanh Hoa 134,602 100,681

Nghe An 38,287 10,000

Ha Tinh 1,694 1,602

Quang Binh 500 199

Quang Tri 2,113 -

Thua Thien Hue - -

Source: MARD, October 2014.


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Table 3. Rice sowing and harvesting area in AW & Mua crop by region (up to 15th

October 2014)

Region Area to 15 October

2013 (1,000 ha)

Area to 15 October

2014 (1,000 ha)

Compared

2013/14 (%)

Harvesting Mua crop

North 879,1 873,9 99.4

RRD 475,4 485,3 102.0

NCC 126,3 112,5 89.1

Sowing AW and Mua crop

AW crop in MRD 690,5 664,1 96.2

Mua crop

South 715,2 612,3 85.6

MRD 330,3 242,8 73.5


Rice straw storage for dairy cattle in Cu Chi district, Hochiminh City Photo: Ho Cao Viet, 29

thSeptember 2014

Maize and rice straw fermented as an important supplement feed for dairy cattle Photo: Ho Cao Viet, 29

th September 2014


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Table 4. Sowing area of AW, Mua rice crop in the South provinces (up to 15th October

2014)

Region/Provinces Sowing area of AW crop (ha) Sowing area of Mua crop (ha)

South 664,147 612,269

SCC 119,496

Da Nang city 2,515

Quang Nam 43,831

Quang Ngai 750

Binh Dinh 16,435

Phu Yen 5,500

Khanh Hoa -

Ninh Thuan 13,465

Binh Thuan 37,000

Highland 140,070

Kon Tum 16,581

Gia Lai 48,000

Dak Lak 54,075

Dak Nong 7,335

Lam Dong 14,275

Southeast 109,873

Binh Phuoc 10,264

Tay Ninh 50,264

Binh Duong 4,605

Dong Nai 26,600

Ba Ria-Vung Tau 10,194

Hochiminh city 7,879

MRD 664,147 242,830

Long An 48,339 8,791

Tien Giang 36,931

Ben Tre 28,860

Tra Vinh 86,567

Vinh Long 59,777

Dong Thap 120,440

An Giang 157,598 5,791

Kien Giang 75,505 55,583

Can Tho 63,239

Hau Giang 50,666

Soc Trang 9,273 11,211

Bac Lieu 42,387 31,413

Ca Mau 14,614



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4.2 Demands in domestic, exportation & importation

Source: www.oryza.com (accessed on 20th October 2014)

Figure 5. Vietnam – Exported price of rice in first 10 months of 2014 (from January to

16th October)

Domestic milled rice consumption does not change compared to September

2014 and to previous year. The variation of domestic price in October 2014

was mainly affected by rice demand for exportation. The upcoming

important event of Vietnam – Tet Festival – in next February 2015, the

scheme of price stabilization of Hochiminh and Hanoi city government is

being launching. Therefore, a large amount of rice is being stock for

supermarket systems and domestic consumption.

In period of September and October 2014, Asian countries are continuing

the major rice exporting destination for Vietnam rice, with about 355,652

tons or about 86.2 percent of total rice exports, equivalent $166,506,931. In

which, the China is still import a large amount of Vietnam rice, they continue

to move up the importation of rice compared to previous month, accounting

for of about 135,034 tons of rice exports (equivalent to about 46% of total

rice exports in September, 2014), In the same time, Vietnam also exported

75,504 tons of rice to the Africa at value of $43,293,548, down both volume

and exported value compared to previous month. About 1,334 tons of rice to

the EU at value of $781,122 (VC and VFA, October 2014) (Table 7).



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In the first 9 months of 2014, Vietnam exported about 5,014 thousand tons

of rice, down 5.4% compared to same period last year at value of $2,283

million down about 2.0% (Table 6). Under the context of global market,

Thailand is coming back to medium quality rice segment, Vietnam rice

enterprises are trying to speed up the rice exportation to different segments

of rice market. However, the exportation situation does not improved

significantly in September 2014. In the end of September 2014, Vietnam

decreased the quantity of exported rice at 518,963 tons at value of

$243,361,048 compared to previous month, down about 21.7% in volume

and 19.4% in value. However, in the fisrt second weeks of October, Vietnam

exported 334,502 tons of rice at value of $158,325 and exported volume of

rice so far was 5,326,125 at value of $2,440,822 thousand (Table 6).

Technician meet and discuss with rice farmers for technical support n Cu Chi district, Hochiminh City Photo: Ho Cao Viet, 29

th September 2014

Japanese expert discussed with farmers in a PRA survey Photo: Ho Cao Viet, 29

th September 2014


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Table 5. Weekly rice exportation (Mar, 2014 to 2nd week of October 2014)

Period

(from – to)

Reporting period Year to date

Tons USD Tons USD

16/03/2014 –

31/03/2014 373,854 164,248,784 1,417,392 652,456,320

01/04/2014 –

15/04/2014 315,264 139,176,019 1,723,126 787,516,051

16/04/2014 –

30/04/2014 342,014 154,401,803 2,060,768 940,094,161

01/05/2014 –

15/05/2014 295,635 129,637,175 2,351,491 1,067,579,143

16/5/2014 –

31/5/2014 390,286 171,610,437 2,724,000 1,231,798,852

1/6/2014 –

15/6/2014 239,450 106,153,080 2,963,450 1,337,955,202

16/6/2014 –

30/6/2014 305,372 138,990,288 3,261,363 1,474,062,501

1/7/2014 –

15/7/2014 302,787 139,194,295 3,546,812 1,606,328,632

16/7/2014 –

31/7/2014 293,486 132,135,979 3,857,606 1,745,728,943

1/8/2014 –

15/8/2014 292,070 133,267,610 4,120,637 1,867,333,052

16/8/2014 –

31/8/2014 362,947 164,995,234 4,499,549 2,041,350,067

1/9/2014 –

15/9/2014 261,978 124,501,510 4,757,573 2,164,033,583

16/9/2014 –

30/9/2014

263,602 131,234,861 5,013,995 2,282,646,554

01/10/2014 –

15/10/2014 334,502 158,325,153 5,326,125 2,440,821,827

Source: General Department of Vietnamese Customs.


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Table 6. Monthly rice exportation (Jan, 2013 to September, 2014)

Year

Month

Reporting period Compared to previous month (%)

Year to date Compared to previous year (%)

Tons USD Tons USD Tons USD Tons USD

2013

January 444,723 203,401,224 -14.0 -16.8 444,723 203,401,224 74.4 39.3

February 354,902 156,684,518 -20.2 -23.0 799,626 360,085,741 13.9 -1.3

March 750,151 327,601,579 111.4 109.1 1,549,777 687,687,321 15.9 4.4

April 649,035 288,873,634 -13.5 -11.8 2,198,812 976,560,956 -0.6 -6.1

May 728,835 323,162,380 12.3 11.9 2,927,647 1,299,723,337 -0.9 -5.3

June 641,163 276,103,327 -12.0 -14.0 3,568,810 1,575,826,664 -6.8 -10.3

July 650,011 274,884,662 1.1 -0.8 4,232,338 1,856,659,413 -10.9 -13.9

August 659,012 288,234,735 1.4 4.9 4,876,202 2,138,471,464 -12.4 -15.2

September 460,820 206,462,801 -30.1 -28.4 5,322,709 2,338,412,577 -14.7 -17.2

October 543,480 242,651,420 17.9 17.5 5,851,380 2,573,903,236 -15.2 -17.9

November 376,057 174,235,382 -30.8 -28.2 6,221,918 2,745,630,310 -17.0 -19.9

December 387,929 187,124,596 3.2 7.4 6,592,439 2,925,222,101 -17.8 -20.4

2014

January 368,867 175,832,182 -4.9 -6.0 368,867 175,832,182 -17.1 -13.6

February 426,294 196,742,665 15.6 11.9 791,437 370,997,328 -1.0 3.0

March 631,030 283,631,576 49.7 45.6 1,417,392 652,456,320 -7.9 -4.4

April 653,819 292,162,406 3.6 3.0 2,060,768 940,094,161 -5.8 -3.2

May 671,805 295,488,454 2.8 1.1 2,724,000 1,231,798,852 -6.6 -4.8

June 543,422 244,603,068 -19.1 -17.2 3,261,363 1,474,062,501 -8.3 -6.1

July 596,273 271,330,274 9.7 10.9 3,857,606 1,745,728,943 -8.1 -5.2

August 662,425 301,961,797 11.1 11.3 4,499,549 2,041,350,067 -7.2 -3.9

September 518,963 243,361,048 -21.7 -19.4 5,013,995 2,282,646,554 -5.4 -2.0

Source: Calculated from data of General Department of Vietnamese Customs,

In September and October 2014, the Asia countries were continuing the

major importers of Vietnam rice, 355,652 tons or about 86.2 (86.8% in

August-September 2014) of total rice exports and 85% of import value

about $166,506,931 (Figure 7 & 8). China and Philippines are two largest

countries on top position among importers of Vietnam rice (135,034 and

91,646 tons, respectively; equivalence of $60,099,101 and $40,156,527)

(Table 7). Malaysia is also a potential importer of Vietnam rice, at 82,839

tons of rice and value of $36,853 thousand million. In term of rice purchase

value, China occupied 38.49%, Philippines was 24.12% of Vietnam value

exported rice to Asia countries in this time. Malaysia occupied about 22.13%

of total Asian countries in September 2014 (Figure 10 & 11).


Page 19 of 31

Table 7. Rice exportation by import country in September, 2014.

Country/continent

Reporting period (September,

2014)

Year to date

(1st Jan, to 30th September, 2014)

Tons USD Tons USD

Africa 75,504 43,293,548 500,952 247,449,842

Algeria 5,924 2,533,820 31,349 13,515,014

Angola 876 554,311 11,295 5,667,825

Ivory Coast 27,969 16,465,878 139,701 67,712,592

Ghana 36,614 21,938,583 242,333 131,584,200

South Africa 4,121 1,800,956 33,216 13,922,228

Senegal 43,058 15,047,983

EU 1,334 781,122 31,201 15,810,411

Poland 100 60,200 623 366,231

Belgium 675 336,641 9,247 4,629,632

Bulgaria - - - -

Netherland 415 233,427 5,011 2,583,258

France 83 55,889 2,157 1,268,083

Spain 144 109,165 1,871 1,188,708

Turkey 0 0 2,849 1,560,019

Ukraine 100 46,000 9,443 4,214,480

Asia 355,652 166,506,931 3,674,183 1,655,700,996

Brunei 1,380 766,900 10,693 5,974,368

Taiwan 2,119 1,184,438 27,902 16,082,653

East Timor 250 141,881 76,025 29,267,299

Hong Kong 13,801 8,037,204 116,439 68,650,503

Indonesia 12,475 6,265,690 88,385 40,950,681

Malaysia 82,839 36,853,154 356,199 161,407,890

Philippines 91,646 40,156,527 1,129,371 503,649,058

Singapore 12,712 6,642,883 151,038 72,713,205

China 135,034 64,099,101 1,693,683 741,378,838

Australia 1,008 682,393 5,587 3,869,046

United Arab

Emirates

2,638 1,676,760 18,861 11,757,455

United States 3,311 2,131,339 30,658 19,707,500

Russian Federation 0 0 23,375 10,258,959

Source: Calculated from data of General Department of Vietnamese Customs, September 2014.


Page 20 of 31

Note: Calculated by quantity of exported rice (ton).

Source: generated from data of General Department of Vietnamese Customs,

Figure 6. Target markets of Vietnam rice by quantity in first 9 months of 2014.

Note: Calculated by value of exportation (USD). Source: generated from data of General Department of Vietnamese Customs.

Figure 7. Target markets of Vietnam rice by value in first 9 months of 2014.


Page 21 of 31

Source: Calculated from data of General Department of Vietnamese Customs.

Figure 8. Exported price of Vietnam rice by continent/region in first 9 months of 2014.

Compare to the previous month, the average rice exported price of Vietnam

to various markets was moved up in September 2014, from $7-10 per ton in

Africa market, $3-10 in EU market. Price was a bit down in Asia market,

varies from $1 to 3. Vietnam continues to export lower-quality rice to African

countries at average price of $454.9, in EU at price of $545.9, up to $3 per

ton. Average price was unchangeable in Asia market at around $518.8 per

ton. Besides that, due to the grade of rice exported to EU, the rice export

price was down in some European countries compared to previous month at

$758, $734.5 and $498.7 per ton in Spain, Turkey and Belgium, respectively

(Figure 9 and data of Table 7).

Source: generated from VFA’s data. Figure 9. Percentage of Vietnam rice exported to Asia market in first 9 months 2014


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Source: generated from VFA’s data.

Figure 10. Percentage of rice quantity imported by Asia countries’ market in September 2014

4.3 Domestic prices and Market trends

Note: Price delivered at port no bagged. Source: generated from VFA’s data.

Figure 11. Fluctuation of rice price in domestic by grade from March to October 2014

The general trend of domestic price (delivered at port without package at

standard of 5%, 15%, 25% broken) in October 2014 was move down

slightly compared to September then retored in the end of October because

of the peak harvesting season in MRD, at around VND 8,000 to 9,000 per kg

(Figure 12 and Table 8). Selling price at farm-gate varies around VND 5,600

to 5,950 per kg (dry paddy) depending on quality of paddy rice (long grain

or ordinary rice), at stable price in compared to September. The price raw

rice for processing (grade 5% and 25% broken) tends to move up in the end


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of October at VND 7,450 to 7,650 per kg. The experts in agriculture sector

predicted that if the price of paddy is at high level in AW crop, in the MRD

farmers would not change rice land to other crops as government’s plan. The

prediction of VFA and local experts stated that rice price will be stable and

increased slightly in next few months because the demand of import rice in

Indonesia, Philippines and the impacts of weather in India, Pakistan and

Cambodia. The demand of rice for stock of Asian countries such as China

and Philippines are still move up in the last 2 months of 2014.

Table 8. Fluctuation of rice price in the MRD market (Aug to 30th Oct 2014)

Unit: Vietnam dong per kg

Rice quality Aug-

Mean*

Sep-

Mean* 02-Oct 09-Oct 16-Oct 23-Oct 30-Oct

Ordinary paddya 5,763 5,650 5,600 5,650 5,700 5,750 5,800

Long-grain paddy 5,988 5,863 5,750 5,800 5,850 5,900 5,950

Raw rice for processingb

5% 7,588 7,488 7,400 7,400 7,450 7,600 7,650

25% 7,463 7,363 7,250 7,300 7,350 7,450 7,500

Rice delivered at port without package/bagged

5% 9,238 9,088 8,900 8,900 8,900 8,950 9,000

15% 8,850 8,738 8,600 8,550 8,550 8,600 8,600

25% 8,338 8,225 8,050 8,000 8,000 8,050 8,100

Note: a dried paddy, b not polishing rice used for processing, * mean of price in Aug, Sep 2014.

Source: generated from data of VFA, October 2014

Note: Price of long-grain and ordinary paddy. Source: generated from VFA’s data.

Figure 12. Comparison of long-grain paddy price in domestic during March to 30th of

October 2014.


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The trend of very high fluctuation of domestic price of various grades,

particularly the long-grain paddy during 8 months from March to October

2014. In October 2014, the prices of good-quality dry paddy are at average

VND 5,750–5,950 per kg, a bit up VND 100-250 per kg compared to

previous month. In general, price of rice has slightly moved up in the end of

October after down trend in the beginning of this month. The average rice

price of long-grain grade in August was at VND 5,988 and VND 5,863 per kg

in September 2014 in domestic market (Figure 13).

In October 2014, the trend of domestic consumption quite similarly the

previous month. The domestic consumption level of is quite stable in term of

quantity and price. The selling price of polishing or husked rice in local and

city markets does not change much in this month, the market force of rice is

slowly, some stock are being for Tet festivals, and there are many promotion

and marketing activities the markets of Ho Chi Minh, Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Da

Nang cities.

In the rural areas, the market price of poultry and pig continues to move up

since the previous month. Farmers increase the amount of animal husbandry

to prepare for Vietnamese festival in February 2015. Therefore, the tend to

use paddy rice as a supplement feed for animals increases slightly in this

month and predict to move up in next coming months.

4.4 Export prices and Market trends

Generally, in October 2014, Vietnam enterprises have strengthen their

exportation by different marketing activities. As a consequence, the rice

price quoted by Vietnam is continuing at higher than Thailand for all quality

grade (According to VFA). Generally, the most of Vietnam rice price quote

had down in October 2014 at about $5 to $20 per ton, lower than previous

month, particularly long-grain white rice low quality 25% broken rice price

moved down from $5 to 20 per ton, but still higher than Thai rice at the

same quality due to Thai had quote very competitive price and gained the


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contract to export to China (Table 9). The competitiveness keeps being

highly for Vietnam rice as a huge quantity of Thai rice comes back to low-

and-medium quality segment. The price of Vietnam Jasmine was keep stable

at $585 – 595 per ton in the 1st and 3nd week of October, down around $20

per ton compared to August 2014 (Table 9).

FAO’s prediction Vietnam's 2014 rice exports will be around 6.5 million tons

(down about 2% from around 6.65 million tons exported in 2013), but until

middle of October 2014, Vietnam’s exported rice reached only 4.3 million

tons (down about 14% from about 5.76 million tons of rice exported during

January - October, 2013). This will be a very hard responsibility for Vietnam

rice enterprise to fulfill the objectives of VFA that Vietnam will export 6.5

million tons of rice in 2014 in the context of high competition of Thai rice and

cutting down rice exported quantity to China market.

Vietnam should have a strategic policy to improve the processing firm’s

capacity from rice to other foodstuffs such as noodle, cakes, high-nutrient

soft drink, starch powder, bio-chemicals that have high value-added by

cooperation with high-tech food processing developed countries such as

Japan, France, Switzerland etc.

Table 9. Rice prices quote of Vietnam, Thailand in the world market (1st week of October to 4th November, 2014)

Unit: USD per ton

Quality 7th Oct

2014

15th Oct

2014

20th Oct

2014

23rd Oct

2014

31st Oct

2014

4th Nov

2014

Long grain

white rice high quality

Thailand 100% B grade

NA NA NA NA NA NA

Vietnam 5% broken

440-450 435-445 430-440 440-450 430-440 430-440

Long grain

white rice low quality

Thailand 25%

broken 350-360 350-360 350-360 350-360 350-360 350-360

Vietnam 25% broken

400-410 400-410 395-405 400-410 395-405 395-405

Long grain

fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92%

NA NA 925-935 NA NA NA

Vietnam Jasmine 585-595 585-595 NA NA 515-520 NA

Broken

Thailand A1 Super 310-320 340-350 340-350 340-350 335-345 330-340

Vietnam 100% broken

335-345 330-340 330-340 335-345 330-340 330-340

Note: NA is not available. Source: www.oryza.com (compiled from 7th October to 4th

November 2014)



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4.5 Analysis, Opinion, and Prediction

Vietnam rice exportation keep going well in October 2014 even a little bit

down compared to previous month in both of exported value and quantity of

rice. Because of rivalry competitors of Vietnam – Thailand – has coming back

and competes in low-medium-grade segment that Vietnamese rice

enterprise dominate in recent years. However, the Vietnamese exporters still

have many opportunities and diversified segment of markets not only in Asia

but also in European Union, and African market such as Spain, Turkey,

Ukraine, Belgium, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Hong

Kong, Senegal, Ghana, The exported price of Vietnam rice is highly

competition with other rice exporters in Asia, particularly Thailand because

Vietnam rice quality and delivery conditions have improved in recent

months.

The quantity of rice export to China has been reduced in October and

Vietnamese enterprises negotiated with Chinese in high quoted price in

official contract. Besides that, Vietnamese exporters are searching for other

markets in order to diversify market and find out potential rice importers.

This is a good market signal for Vietnam rice sectors, to avoid the

dependence on Chinese market.

Thai rice exporters has returned to the global rice market after stabilization

of political crisis in last few months and expected to export around 11 million

tons of rice in 2014 and they always quoted at lower price than Vietnam rice

in recent months to get high competition in term of price in the

segmentation of low-and-medium quality that Vietnam rice has dominated

this year and previous years. A new launched strategy of Vietnamese

government for reducing low-efficiency rice land, improving rice quality by

the way to enhance capacity of processing and on-field management, to

reduce the costs of production, and focus on cultivation of high-quality rice

varieties are favorable strategy in this context.


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4.6 Other related news

Thailand’s Commerce Minister told local sources that the government will

take certain measures to stabilize the price of Thai Hom Mali rice at around

15,000-16,000 baht (around $461-$492) per ton. The prescribed rate called

the “median rate” will be announced after approval from the National Rice

Policy Committee. The Minister noted that millers and exporters should buy

Hom Mali rice from farmers at the “median rate” and farmers are also

educated about the “median rate” so that they don't end up selling at a loss

because the duration of the “median price” will depend on global prices. The

government is encouraging farmers to store their harvest to delay sales to

control downward pressure on prices by providing low-interest loans.

Farmers are also encouraged to work closely with exporters to increase Hom

Mali rice exports to markets such as China, Africa and the ASEAN. The

government estimates the Thai Hom Mali rice production at about 6 million

tons this year (Source: http://www.oryza.com/print/20700#sthash.jbXF29tb.dpuf).

Thailand's Commerce Ministry is reportedly negotiating with the

governments of Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines as well as African and

Middle East countries to secure G2G deals to sell an additional 900,000 to

one million tons of rice this year. The Ministry has already shipped over

700,000 tons of rice under G2G contracts to China, Indonesia and the

Philippines. Thai government is particularly keen on signing a new one

million ton G2G deal with China. Currently, the Deputy Prime Minister is in

Beijing to persuade China to sign a new deal. The government is also likely

to use the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit forum in Beijing to

discuss with China about the new deals. The Prime Minister has expressed

confidence that Thailand would export over 11 million tons of rice this year.

According to data from the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA), Thailand

exported around 6.6 million tons of rice in the first eight months (January -

August) of 2014, up about 59% from around 4.14 million tons exported

during the same period in 2013 (Source: http://www.oryza.com).

http://www.oryza.com/print/20700#sthash.jbXF29tb.dpuf



Page 28 of 31

China has imported around 1.65 million tons of rice in the first eight months

of 2014 (January - August), up about 4% from around 1.586 million tons

imported during the same period last year, according to data from China

Customs General Administration. In August 2014, China imported around

145,465 tons of rice, down about 19% from around 180,000 tons imported

in July 2014, and up about 25% from around 116,201 tons imported in

August 2013. USDA estimates China to produce around 144 million tons of

rice, import around 3.7 million tons and export around 350,000 tons of rice

in 2014-15 (July - June) (Source: http://www.oryza,com).

On October 2014, USDA has forecasted 2014-15 global milled rice

production at around 475.5 million tons, slightly down from an estimated

476.1 million tons in 2013-14, and slightly down from its last month's

estimates of around 477 million tons. USDA attributes the decline in global

rice production to a lower average yield. USDA forecasts 2014-15 global rice

area at around 161 million hectares, slightly up from last year, due to

expected increase in rice area in Brazil, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, the

Philippines, and the U.S. It has forecasted the average global yield at 4.4

tons per hectare (on rough rice basis), almost unchanged from last year.

USDA expects lower output from India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan due to lesser

rains and unfavorable weather conditions. USDA estimates 2014-15 global

rice consumption and residual use at 481.7 million tons, up about 1% from

last year's 476.9 million tons, consumption to exceed production by about

6.2 million tons in 2014-15. Major increases in consumption and residual use

are expected in Bangladesh, Burma, China, India, Indonesia, the Philippines,

and the U.S (Source: http://www.oryza.com).

http://www.oryza,com/



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Source: Oryza October 2014 rice market review (www.oryza.com accessed on 15th October

2014)

Appendix 1. Rice imports of China from 1st January to August 2014

Source: Oryza October 2014 rice market review (www.oryza.com accessed on 16th

October 2014)

Appendix 2. USDA global milled rice projection (2013-2015)

The Oryza White Rice Index (WRI), a weighted average of global white rice

export quotes, ended the week at about $455 per ton, down about $5 per

ton from a week ago, down about $10 per ton from a month ago and up




Page 30 of 31

about $2 per ton from a year ago. Thailand 5% broken rice today quoted at

about $420 per ton, down about $5 per ton from a week ago, down about

$15 per ton from a month ago and up about $10 per ton from a year ago.

The Thai government has released its inspection report on the quantity and

quality of its current rice stocks accumulated from the now-defunct rice-

pledging scheme, and it shows that the country has 18 million tons of rice

and only 10% are standard quality, while about 20% were unfit for human

consumption and 70% were below-standard.

India 5% broken rice today quoted at about $415 per ton, down about $5

per ton from a week ago, down about $10 per ton from month ago, and

unchanged from a year ago. Average wholesale prices increased sharply in

October after suffering a significant decline in September. The increase is

due to lower anticipated production in 2014-15.

Source: Oryza October 2014 rice market review (www.oryza.com accessed on 31st

October 2014)

Appendix 3. Oryza white rice index (2011 to September 2014)



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Abbreviation

VFA Vietnam Food Association

MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

MIT Ministry of Industry and Trade

VC General Department of Vietnamese Customs

WS Winter-Spring rice crop

SA Summer-Autumn rice crop

AW Autumn-Winter rice crop

NCHMF National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting

MRD Mekong River Delta

RRD Red River Delta

NCC North Central Coast

SCC South Central Coast

CHL Central Highland

SE South Eastern Region

DCP Department of Crop Production, MARD

WB World Bank

CBA Can Tho Business Association

Documents

Vietnam Agricultural Report Research Rice Market Review and Analysis