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Towards An African Geo-

Strategy

Modern Nigeria and the Prussian State: A

Comparative Analysis

By: Mouktar Albert

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The US in Africa, Europe in Africa, China in Africa such

ubiquitous terminology denotes Africa and Africans as objects

being acted upon never reacting always victimized never

initiating never planning and never preempting, with this piece I

hope to contribute to a new dynamic in which Africa prominently

lay center stage of, what Halford Mackinder coined, the “World

Island”. The African Grand Strategist, today, confronts a nexus

point of volatility in the global economic and political

landscape. This poses many challenges yet, also, proffers many

more opportunities for those undaunted by the difficulties of

leadership in the coming century. Yet still, it seems, do the

words of Homer ring true when he wrote, “to those that flee comes

neither power nor glory.” I maintain, that, in the global

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political economy, power is finite, therefore, nation states,

informed by their rational need to accumulate strategic

resources, exercise their respective wills in an economy of

power. In such a context, it would follow that in the political

economy as it is with its financial counterpart; economy of scale

is paramount and imparts inherent advantages for entities which

pursue the logic of its benefits. To this end it is my belief

that the great actors of the 21st century geopolitical arena will

be the continental nation state whose influence shall only be

limited by the ability of their statesmen to act singularly,

dynamically and decisively. Given the African context and the

particular ends of this research paper being the accumulation of

economic power, political power and geo-strategic influence, the

aims, total integration political, economic and cultural become

inevitable. The means, however, are multifaceted and

multivariable, necessitating an analysis of resources, priorities

and the aligning of the often bellicose and petty short term

interests of national politicians’ with those of the broader

continent’s long term objectives. But such actions are not

conducted in seclusion, for various state and non state actors,

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will constantly maneuver, in ways both seen and unseen, to impose

the supremacy of their respective entities’ interests. This paper

seeks begin a discursive counter point to such machinations. The

task before the African Grand Strategist is a daunting one for he

is constantly confronted with the stark reality that African

power is disjointed and therefore impotent. The continent of

Africa is not a nation but, 54 separate politically independent

entities, most of which being, until recently, defunct colonial

relics. In fact, one could take the supposition further by

stating even these 54 nation states, upon which my assessment of

an African Geo-strategy lay, are themselves contrived not being

authentically representative, in some ways, of the people(s)

within them. I believe, it can be said that, the African State is

a Nation without a people while the African people(s) are

people(s) without a State. Given this view a more accurate break

down of African people can be found at the ethnic level. Although

this too presents a challenge as there are many thousands of

African ethnicities. Therefore, for the purposes of this paper I

will proceed assuming the viability of the African nation state.

Before I can begin to construct the ways and means of an African

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Geo-strategy I must first frame a historical context around

Africa’s current geo-strategic position.

The African continent has experienced a long period of

foreign occupations and military conquests from the Arab Invasion

of North Africa and slave trade, which began in the seventh

century A.D., to the defeat of the Songhai Empire in 1592, to the

European slave trade and the later colonization of most of the

African continent by Western European powers. These military

defeats, the material, territorial and the human losses they

precipitated have left a legacy of stagnation, decline and

underdevelopment which has until recently defined the continent

and her people. Many more events and interactions could be added,

but an exhaustive list and description would take away from my

main focus, which is, framing the general context of the West

African situation and how it can be improved going forward from

the 2007 financial crisis.

The modern African state was, structured by design, as a

predatory and rent seeking polity, much like the pre-modern

German kingdoms and principalities ruled over by robber barons,

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prior to the mid 19th century, before Prussian amalgamation.

Specifically, the nations which make up the Ecowas grouping of

West African states, at a cursory glance one would be forgiven

for balking, at any attempt to compare the history of a modern

Westphalian European State i.e. Germany to West Africa a group of

desperate, dysfunctional former colonial properties, but,

nevertheless, the parallels are evident and numerous. To

illustrate this point further, I present the fact that both

regions were a part of vast empires which united the various

ethnic groups of their respective regions, uniting diverse tribes

and creating larger political structures than had existed

previously. Germany did so under The Roman Empire, The Holy Roman

Empire and The Kingdom of Prussia, while West Africa coalesced,

first, around the Kingdom of Mali then of Ghana until finally,

consolidating, under the Empire of Songhai. In the case of West

Africa this process was interrupted by the defeat of the Songhai

Empire. In Germany the Prussian military provided the fundamental

political stability which prosperity demands while its capital

city Berlin proved to be a potent catalyst for the attraction and

pooling of knowledge, capital, equipment and labor. There was an

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oft quoted quip regarding the Prussian state, which went, while

most states are in possession of an army the Prussian army

possesses a state. But such levels of military readiness were

essential in a wider European environment in which might made

right. I believe that Nigeria is the only state in the Ecowas

region capable of integrating West Africa, with the city of its

center. I hold that Nigeria with Lagos city at its center can be

for West Africa what Prussia with Berlin at its center was for

the unification of the Germanys’.

During the Napoleonic wars the Germanic Kingdoms and

principalities were the battlefields, upon which much of the

conflicts of Western Europe were fought, leaving the region

devastated, by foreign armies. The problem lay in the fact that

they were surrounded by much older, centralized and organized

polities, such as, France. This left the Germanys’ with very

little political breathing space within which to organize, as

always, “the prospects for German union were destroyed from

without. The German national effort became caught up in Bourbon

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France’s struggle with Habsburg Spain.” (Calleo, p.4) There are

many reasons for this disunity and late modern state formation.

John Ishiyama author, “Comparative Politics: Principals of

Democratization,” states a few such reasons. One is, “the

collapse of the Holy Roman Empire,” and the religious wars which

that collapse precipitated had the effect of further dividing an

already divided land (Ishiyana, p.48). The second is, “the Treaty

of Westphalia in 1648 which established the system of states in

Europe,” had the adverse effect of codifying German disunity, and

creating many petty, yet still, dependent [upon the greater

European powers] weak states (Ishiyama, p.48).” The third reason

for, “Political disunity was the conflict between the two

strongest German States Prussia to the East and Austria to the

South.” (Ishiyama, p.48) Leadership was the catalyst for the

rise of the Prussian State from a weak backwater principality in

the heart of Europe to one of its Great powers (Ishiyama, p.48).

The Prussian State was not a democracy, but a military minded

monarchy, a fact which was not detrimental to modern state

formation, in fact, I would argue that Prussian (German) State

formation and development was expedited because of the active

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suppression of their middle classes (Ishiyama, p.48). Arguably,

the first great, modern, Prussian leader was Fredrick the Great

who in “combining military build-up with rapid economic

modernization,” (Ishiyama, p.48) set the stage for the later,

amalgamation of the divided polities, and the rise of the

Germanic empire. The reason for the intimate relationship between

Prussian economic power and military power is that without the

former the latter cannot long be sustained and without the latter

the former cannot be defended, both are prerequisite for a modern

state. King Fredrick wasn’t always a reformer; in fact, he even

fired a minister who was a tireless advocate of reform months

before the end of the first Napoleonic war, Baron Karl von Stein,

whom he promptly rehired for the, express, purpose of heading a

newly established ministry of reform. What changed? As

conservative a King as Fredrick was, even he had to admit that

his “Kingdom emerged from the Napoleonic war with a shattered

military organization, a devastated countryside, a bankrupt

treasury, a broken economy, a government in chaos, and with all

but a fraction of its territory either annexed or occupied by

foreigners.” (Gray, p.1) What changed, Prussia emerged a defeated

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nation. Stein’s ministry of reform lasted not longer than a year,

but the effects, “nurtured all of Prussian-German history in the

19th century.” (Grey, p.3) It did not matter that the ministry of

reform was discontinued, that the reform process was incomplete,

or that the aristocracy consistently worked to undermine him and

his efforts, ultimately, “the patterns his government established

became woven into the social and economic fabric of Prussia in

succeeding decades. The legacy of Stein included a strengthened

aristocracy, and a reinforced bureaucracy.” (Gray, p.2) But

reformers do not just fight against the conditions of stagnation

and underdevelopment in and of itself, usually there exists those

who are served well by the status quo and actively work against

efforts at reform out of reasons of self interest (Gray, p.43).

The reformers also faced the secondary problem of a lack of a

modern constitution and state organization, therefore, the state

as represented by the King was open to, “being exploited by the

King’s favorites.” (Gray, p.50)

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I believe that it should be lost on no one that the

political unification of the modern German state “was achieved

through force.” (Ishiyama, p.49) The leader thought most

responsible, for this tour de force was, Otto Von Bismarck, the

Chancellor of Prussia. Von Bismarck was a major critic of

democracy and the extent to which he fought for the interests of

the middle classes or the working classes were few and based upon

concrete strategic real politik. For example, “despite his

hostility toward the socialists, Bismarck tried to bring the

working classes into the grand balance of social legislation,

which included the first system of national health insurance in

the world.” (Ishiyama, p.50) He gave to the middle classes

powerful positions within the state apparatus and convinced it to

be content with the large military complex because of the hostile

foreign political environment which necessitated it (Ishiyama,

p.50). One insight into the chancellor’s mindset, given his views

on Prussia’s unenviable international position can be seen in his

famous Blood and Iron Speech, in which he states, “Prussia must

concentrate and maintain its power for the favorable moment which

has already slipped by several time. Prussia’s boundaries

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according to the Vienna treaties are not favorable to a healthy

state life. The great questions of the time will not be resolved

by speeches and majority decisions, but by iron and blood.” This

is not to say that the German’s were inherently violent or at

least no more so than their neighboring European states, but that

by the virtue of becoming a state late in the game in Europe held

implications for Prussian interests. Power balances in Europe

were already established during Prussia’s rise therefore Prussian

expansion, given the condition of the continent in the early 19th

century, for Prussia to expand into a viable nation state it must

bump, by necessity, into the interests of nations which organized

before itself, such as, Austria-Hungary, France, and Russia.

The comparison I wish to make cannot be a direct one to one

comparison for issues of time, geography, culture, history and

technology do not allow for it but there does exist a certain

number of parallel events and overlapping potentialities between

the two nations, Germany’s history and Nigeria’s present

trajectory, which allow for lessons to be learned.

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In 2008 there was a global credit crisis which acutely

affected the ability of Western European nations and the United

States to exercise power and influence over African States such

as Nigeria. Unlike Prussia which had to create its political and

economic breathing space by force of arms Nigeria was and still

is in a position to do so by taking advantage of its competitors

economic weakness. As Rahm Emanuel is fond of stating, “you never

let a serious crisis go to waste.” It was during this economic

crisis that one of Nigeria’s greatest reformers emerged the

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria Lamido Sanusi who’s

appointment for the position was confirmed right in the middle of

the Nigerian Banking crisis. [4] Which was itself precipitated by

the 2008 global credit crisis and corruption, mismanagement of

the Nigerian banking sector and the, “more aloof disposition of

his predecessor, Charles Chukwuma.” [3] Sanusi was a reformer and

he did not let this crisis go to waste before stamping his mark

on a new Nigeria. He, “moved swiftly and boldly to implement far

reaching reforms in the banking industry aimed at addressing the

root causes of the crisis in poor corporate governance and risk

management practice, management fraud, insider abuses and weak

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regulation supervision and enforcement.” [1] So prolific was his

efforts to reform Nigeria’s banking industry and economy he was

nicknamed “Sanusi tsunami.” He was even awarded the title central

bank governor of the year by The Banker Magazine.[2]

The other main Nigerian reformer is the governor of Lagos

State, Babatoude Fashola. When the governor began his term Lagos

state was almost completely depedent upon oil derived payments

for state funds now after, “a rise in the tax take, which now

accounts for 65 percent of the city-state’s revenues,” it is not

as dependent on the central government to function. [5] He is

also in the process of rehabilitating the state public school

system having, “disbursed a total sum of N500 million for the

rehabilitation of 166 schools,” [6] Governor Fashola is

continuing the project to create a financing hub for the West

African region called Eko Atlantic. “The Lagos State Commissioner

for Water Front and Infrastructural Development, Adesegun Oniru,

said that the Eko Atlantic Project would create 150,000 jobs.” It

is a city within a city which will be able to accommodate 250,000

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workers and residents when complete. The project will also,

“protect ocean surge from taking over the whole of Victoria

Island,” because “when ever there is a heavy rainfall, there is

major flooding there.” So the project is doubly useful for

ensuring Nigeria’s economic future and geographic survival due to

climate change. [7] He is also responsible for the creation of

Lagos Bus Rapid Transit. The system was so successful that it

carries more than 120 million passengers a year on 220 buses

which also created 2000 direct jobs and over 3000 indirect jobs.

[8] The point I wish to make by highlighting the achievements of

these two Nigerian reformers was to show how to competent

individuals with integrity and vision can begin to transform a

nation which has and to a certain degree still is languishing in

poverty and poor governance. More reform and reformers are still

needed for Nigeria to develop especially in the office of the

president, Babatoude Fashola’s term as governor is up soon and he

won’t be able to run again he has earned a lot of credibility

with the electorate because of his successes as state governor

maybe he will take it all the way to Abuja.

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The Nigerian situation is not all positive there are many

problems which for the most part spring from the illogical way,

in which, the Nigerian state itself is constructed, among other

things. Rotimi Suberu of the Department of Politics and

International relations, Bennington College, Vermont , US, stated

that the “transformation and centralization of the Nigerian

Federation by soldiers and oil has produced contentious and

contradictory outcomes.” (Suberu, p.459) Gaddafi believed that

because of Nigeria’s religious and ethnic divides, “the model

that fits Nigeria is the Yugoslav model… which included several

peoples, like Nigeria, and then these peoples like Nigeria, and

then these peoples gained independence and the Yugoslav union was

ended in peace.” (Suberu, p.460) Suffice it to say that the

Nigerians were not amused. But the conflicts which cause

outbursts of violence in places like Kano region to the North

which may take the form of political Islamists not ideological

and can be traced back to poor economic opportunities which are

in their turn caused by poor governance which is itself reflected

in the holy inadequate formulation of the Nigerian Federal

system. Nigeria’s Roman Catholic Archbishop John Onaiyekan even

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said that, “crisis not purely religious,” that in “Nigeria’s

winner take all political culture where the country’s political

culture where the country’s political elites from a number of

regions, religions, and ethnicities compete for power and the

control of oil resources, militant groups [like Boko Haram] serve

as a kind of pressuring mechanism for achieving what cannot be

achieved in elections, in parliament, or in backroom deals.” [10]

This perspective is also held by the Nigerian military in regards

to the Niger Delta conflict as seen by Lieutenant Colonel Onyema

Nwachukwa in a statement made to the BBC, “I foresee a situation

whereby those people [Niger Delta] in order to gain recognition,

may want to attack innocent civilians.” But instead of wait for

this situation to metastasize the government is proactively

seeking to better the living conditions of the people in the

Delta likely because the government would be adversely affected

if broad based violent conflict were to break out in the region,

which would have a negative impact upon development. [11]

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In the final analysis it seems that although I did identify

some positive correlations between the historical development

trajectory of Germany and the more modern current development

trajectory of the Nigerian State they are in the end anecdotal

and therefore do not serve as causal proof that Nigeria will

follow a German like path of development. Germany’s greatest

problems in regards to viable state formation lay outside of her

borders. While Nigeria has the opposite dilemma in that most

nations near it are much smaller in size geographically and in

regards to population therefore they are more likely to desire

economic regulatory and eventually political integration unlike

Germany [Prussia] which had to conquer militarily. Nigeria is

well placed to, through Ecowas, accomplish the task of

amalgamation peacefully. But it will have to create a more

efficient state super structure, within which, this new order can

coalesce. Was my hypothesis correct, partially, but it was in the

end a flawed concept that’s not to say that parallels from the

past could not be drawn upon to benefit the future of any

developing nation Nigeria included.

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