Prof. Anatoly Zolotukhin

Arctic Resources:

Arctic Business Forum Round Table

August 30, 2013, Oslo

Emerging opportunities and existing challenges

Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas National Research University

ARCTIC FORUM FOUNDATION

World Primary Energy Consumption

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Source: INES RAS report, May 2013

Total: 12,8 BTOE

(~ 92 Bboe)

Total: 18,0 BTOE

(~ 130 Bboe)

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Why Arctic is so important?

Arctic is believed to be

an area with the

highest unexplored HC

potential in the world

By 2035 the demand for

oil and gas will grow

globally by 18% and

44%, respectively

60% of planned oil and

gas production in 2035

will be from fields, not

yet found and discovered

Ref.: DNV Summer project 2011, World Energy

Outlook, Oil & Gas Journal, USGS

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Source: O.A. Lindseth; 2011

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Energy Resources in the Arctic

Source: O.A. Lindseth; 2011

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Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic

Donald L. Gautier, et al. Science 324, 1175 (2009); DOI: 10.1126/science.1169467

Undiscovered Oil

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Undiscovered Gas

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Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic

Donald L. Gautier, et al. Science 324, 1175 (2009); DOI: 10.1126/science.1169467

HC Resource Potential of the Arctic shelves:

USA, Canada, Greenland (Denmark), Norway, Russia

Producing, under development,

discovered and undiscovered fields Liquid / gas

Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)

Producing, developed and discovered fields

HC Resource Potential of Norwegian Continental Shelf

Undiscovered unawarded resources

Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)

HC Resource Potential of the Barents Sea

Producing, developed and discovered fields Undiscovered unawarded resources

Table shows only undiscovered unawarded resources Green circle (Shtokman) indicates the scale

Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)

HC Resource Potential of the Russian Arctic shelves

Kara Sea

(w/o Ob & Tazov bays)

Barents Sea

Laptev, East-Siberian & Chukchi seas

Sea of Okhotsk

Producing, under development,

discovered and undiscovered fields Liquid / gas

Source: Diagrams built by using UCube software (Rystad Energy)

Russia’s conventional HC reserves & resources

Ref.: D. Khramov, Rus-Norw Seminar, June 20, 2011

Total: 355 BTOE

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Development opportunities

Shtokman

Snøhvit

Skrugard-Havis (Johan Castberg)

Goliat

Snøhvit LNG

The Barents Sea: An area of international energy cooperation

Fedyn

swell

Gazprom

Rosneft

Lukoil

Statoil

ENI

ExxonMobil

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Novatek

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Total

Shell

BP

RN Nordic Oil AS

Free economic zone?

Ref: V. Bashkin, R. Galiulin, Neftegaz.ru, No. 8, 2012

Agenda: A – end of the Ice Age; B – climate maxima; C – Rome climate maximum;

D – human migration; E – medieval warm period; F – Little Ice Age; G – current warming

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Years from now (x 1000)

Tem

per

atu

re, 0 C

A

B C

D

E

F

G

Cooling and warming periods in the Northern hemisphere: shipment opportunities

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> 1

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Keeping the energy balance: Exploration and development cost

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> 1 trillion $

Exploration expenditures, all Russian shelves

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Environmental & Reputation

Geological

‒ Low exploration status

Political

‒ Territorial disputes

‒ Security of Supply

Economics/Costs

‒ High CAPEX / OPEX and transportation cost

Competing resources

‒ Shale gas & CBM, lower cost OPEC oil

Harsh environment

Source: K. Mørk, DnV, 2012

Challenges associated with the development of Arctic resources:

Concluding remarks

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Opportunities associated with the development

of Arctic resources:

Concluding remarks

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Environmental & Reputation

Geological

Political

Economics/Costs

Technology tunnel concept: Develop oil/gas fields from a shoreline base

Cavern(s)

Sea level

Onshore

facilities

Technology Tunnel

Build dry. Wet or dry drilling/production

L < 30 km, D 6+ m, Cavern 35 m high

Max depth 350 m below sea level

Production wells

Control

room

Rig

Sediments Rock

Pumping pit

Technology development

Security of supply:

‒ Infrastructure development

‒ Pan Arctic transshipment

Education and culture

‒ Joint international programs

We can have a safe, secure and reliable

development of arctic resources… only through

cooperation, not competition, among arctic

nations.

Any other way of doing this… will not benefit

any nation in the long run.

Assistant Secretary of State Daniel S. Sullivan, Oct. 15, 2007

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A. Kontorovich, RAO-2009

In the second part of XXI century production of HC in the

Arctic petroleum mega basin will be as important in

energy supply as Persian Gulf and West Siberia basins

today

Thank you!

Prof. Anatoly Zolotukhin

E-mail: anatoly.zolotukhin@gmail.com

Phone/Fax: +7 499 135 75 16

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