Crowdsourcing, Social Production and Network Economy Futures by Gerd Leonhard CEO Summit 08 Phuket

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Decentralized &Social Production

- Network Economy Futures -

Presentationby Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.comOctober 21, 2008Phuket, Thailand

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

http://www.mediafuturist.com

http://www.mediafuturist.com


I am proud to be standing on the shoulders of giants such as....

Wikinomics (Don Tapscott)The Wealth of Networks (Yochai Benkler)

Here Comes Everybody (Clay Shirky)Crowdsourcing (Jeff Howe)

+ 850 RSS feeds ;)

Read these books!


Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The future is already here...

...it’s just unevenly distributed *William Gibson


Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Drastic role changes are immanent.

Data Pipe

Content Pipe

Service Pipe



Note: This is not about technology!

Emerging cultural practices



Note: Cultural Differences are always crucial

http://www.flickr.com/photos/bip/

Tokyo

London





After Music & Video: Books 2.0!



3000 books published every day


Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Once technology becomes dead-simple...



A crucial message from the Music World:What happens before the Orchestra performs?


Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Truly connected means...We can find out ...anything

We decide who gets to market to usNiches are the new hits

We find out we can actually create things, too!A large node’s actions impact everyone

We collaborate to get very large jobs done, togetherWe collaborate cross-time/border/nation/firm


Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist And where is the future growth?


Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist People are sharing like never before

Imagine this x 1000



My prediction:2013: 50% of the world’s

‘content’ generated by the Users

User Generated:

Content + Advertising + Marketing + R&D ++



The old industrial production model: coordination of resources based on managing investment, labor, or other

scarce supplies. The result: exclusive ownership & control; large firms.

5 things have changed this:

• Virtually free and unlimited computation power

• Low cost data storage

• Increasing network bandwidth

• Ubiquitous mobile access

• Explosive ‘Culture of Participation’



The Transparency Explosion



Together, Broadband Culture and Mobility will re-define how we

think about:• Privacy• Authority• Ownership / Copyright• Value (period) ‘Selling’ and Marketing• R&D, and Production• Work• Education


Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Formerly

AudienceConsumerListenerCustomerBuyer

Now

UsersCo-CreatorsContributorsPeersProducersPromoters...Buyers 2.0



Content UsersContent CreatorsProduct CreatorsService Creators



Some related ideas on the current crisis:

‣ Talk to people - have real, 2-way conversations with your stakeholders, partners and customers

‣ Show that you care and that you are pro-active

‣ Help people find answers and solutions

‣ Use the web’s power to reduce costs (!!!)

‣ Try some Freemium ideas (make something free that used to cost $ - and upsell from there)

‣Now is the time to innovate & gain market share!



Yochai Benkler (The Wealth of Networks):

“Collaborative projects like Wikipedia and

Linux represent the next stage of

human organization”


Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist 3D printers


Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist Downloading ProductsImagine using a software that encodes detailed specifications of something and then seeing that object emerge from a box on your desk no bigger than a microwave oven... (source: ECommerce Times)

"This is a really powerful tool for people to be creative. A lot of the stuff that used to be found only in an R&D laboratory can now sit on your desktop," Malone says. "That means if you have the knowledge and imagination, you don't have tons of capital to make a product." Malone @ Cornell



Some masses, together, are beating ‘the Firm’





Ideas are the currency of the Future

Large Ideas are not exclusive

to large Entities



PowerfulIdeas will

be provided fromANYWHERE



AboutCrowd-Sourcing



Crowd-Sourcing Principles

Used to be Is / Will be

Not invented here Proudly Found Elsewhere

Local search Network search

Company Community

Firm owns all Firm earns and keeps trust



Crowd + Cloud = Our Future



AG Lafley (CEO): “P&G has about 8,500 researchers; and we figured there are another 1.5 million similar researchers with

pertinent areas of expertise. Why not pick their brains?”

Since Lafley took over the company, its stock price has surpassed its former highs and net profits tripled to $10bn in 2007.



So what happens when...

64% of U.S. teenagers create content online

★ They grow up and become professionals?★ They start / run their own companies?★ The tools of cheap production & low-cost, fast

and mobile connectivity finally become available in the so-called developing countries?



๏ Professional amateurs only๏ 60.000 part-time photographers๏ 3.5 Million images and 100.000 videos๏ 38 forum posts per minute๏ Paid out $27 Million to creators in 2007๏ 2 Million customers buying๏ Sold for $50 Million to Getty Images in 2005๏ Huge cost savings for design firms etc๏ Great example for lower cost AND higher convenience๏ Great example for the power of Pro-Am sourcing๏ Non-crowdsourced incumbents find it hard to compete



Source: Flickr hillarylmrore

Decision Making

Product Development



Command and Control

Attract & Aggregate



What used to matter...

LocationAge

Gender

RacePedigree

Qualification

Cash



What matters now

Merit Credibility

Creativity Quality

Reputation

Innovation



Infinitely more than just the sum of its parts

Photo Credit: unknown.. looking!



Summary

• During the next 5 years, most of these massive shifts will

first be exploited in Asia and BRIC (and then, Europe / U.S.)

• Expect massive disruption by newly empowered, networked

& de-central Users and Pro-Ams - and embrace it!

•Disrupt or be disrupted

• Investigate social production and crowd-sourcing ideas

•Relentlessly pursue openness everywhere



DataContent & Services

Telco Futures


Business

Crowdsourcing, Social Production and Network Economy Futures by Gerd Leonhard CEO Summit 08 Phuket