Innovation Radar: How to track down future developments? (Popper, 2012)

Dr Rafael PopperResearch Fellow, Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (UK)

Innovation Director & CEO, Futures Diamond (Czech Republic)rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk - rafael.popper@futuresdiamond.com

Innovation RadarHow to track down future

developments?www.iknowfutures.eu

As a result, we need more systematic research & innovation efforts aimed

atmapping futures & interconnecting

knowledge

1st messageThere are many

“futures” around us…

weak signals

policiesvisions

scenarios

risks opportunities

innovationswild cards

strategies

Evolution of Mapping Futures Our Mapping Foresight work has

produced a vast amount of futures-related information unprecedented in the world

Our Mapping Foresight activities have been useful to understand foresight practices in Europe and other world regions

2005 2006 20072004

437 cases mapped

> 800 identified

767 cases mapped

> 1400 identified

100 cases mapped

846 cases mapped

> 1600identified

2008

> 1000 cases mapped

> 2000Identified

2009

Mapping Foresight

Key Lessons+

Findings

Introducingnetworking (SNA) and systemicanalyses

intoForesight

(Foresight Ark)

2010-2012

MappingForesight

&Forecasting

IntroducingWild Cards &Weak Signals

(WI-WE)systems

+Web 2.0 scanning

+Bottom-upEvaluation

InnovationSystems

Our Mapping Foresight report revealed the extensive use of interdisciplinary approaches in futures research

So we need more systematic activities aimed at

anticipating, recommending and transforming futures

2nd messageThere are many ways

of shaping our future…

impact assessment

horizon scanningforecasting

foresight

strategic planning visioning

NEW

Foresight & Horizon Scanning (FHS) Process

ManagementFramework

S.M

.A.R

.T.E

.R.

Polic

y/S

trate

gy

Cycle

(Pop

per, 2

011)

1 2

3 45

We often customise our methodologies, frameworks and systems to support a wide range of futures research & innovation

activities

3rd messageWe have some tools to

track down future developments…

NEW

MethodologyToolkit 44

meth

od

olo

gy

toolk

it

New web 2.0 futures toolkit

iCommunity

iLibrary iOracle

iDelphi iBank iScaniNews

www.iknowfutures.eu

So, how to track down futures

developments?

We need to encourage people to think differently!

McArthur's Universal Corrective Map of the

World

South

North

Germany is

here!

We need to use multiple interpretation and sense-

making frameworks

ass

ess

ment

S = Situation-bounded (time & context)

futurepast

Inte

rpre

tati

on &

Sense

-maki

ng

level of

unce

rtain

ty

What EMERGING / NEW issuesmay shape our future?

WIS4

issues

What RE-EMERGING issues may shape our future?

issues

WIS3

What issues may STOP shaping the future?

issues

WIS2

What issues may CONTINUE shaping the future?

issues

WIS1

today

WE

WE

WE

WE

We need to combine various Horizon Scanning Strategies

Horizon ScanningStrategy 1

ILTD

Horizon ScanningStrategy 4

OLBU

Top-DownIn

war

d-Lo

okin

g Horizon ScanningStrategy 2

OLTD

Outw

ard-Looking

Horizon ScanningStrategy 3

ILBU

Bottom-Up

YOUR AREA OF CONCERN

1,700+

players

1 2

3 45

iKnow’s participatory HS approaches

We developed a fully-fledged framework

and a Web 2.0 system for mapping futures

So far…

969 files for

unregistered users

vs.

1061 filesfor

iKnow members

1700+members

in 80

countries

By 9.2.2012

Since Feb 2011

New iKnowFutures proposal submitted to the EC

The iScan is an advanced

strategic intelligence, foresight and

horizon scanning search engine.

A kind of “Issues Google”

1,000+ issues mapped against EC FP7 Themes,

FRASCATI, NACE sectors andGrand Challenges

Nomination1. source2. theme3. sub-theme4. references5. short name / headline6. abstractDescription7. manifestation8. potential implications9. importanceAnalysis10. filters11. main drivers12. risks & opportunities13. stakeholders’ actionsInterconnection14. Grand Challenges15. thematic relevance16. ERA relevance17. research-friendly

strategies18. RTD & STI policy

relevance

Nomination1. source2. theme3. sub-theme4. references5. short name / headline6. Abstract7. likelihoodDescription8. typology9. importanceAnalysis10. early indicators11. main drivers12. risks & opportunities13. stakeholders’ actionsInterconnection14. Grand Challenges15. thematic relevance16. ERA relevance17. research-friendly

strategies18. RTD & STI policy

relevance

Mapping Weak SignalsMapping Wild Cards

18 criteria

Key facts and

figures

700+ respondents

60 60 900+ ISSUES.

4000+ assessments to

60 Wild Cards

2500+ assessments to

60 Weak Signals

Delphi results on September 2011

Wild Cards Delphi

Wild Cards headline navigation panel

Wild Cards headline navigation panel

Comments & full preview

Description & Desirability

Short- & Long-term priority for policymaking

Importance for STI policy in Your Country & EU

Potential impacts on(in Your Country & the EU)

1- Physical infrastructure2 - Virtual infrastructure3 - Social welfare4 - Economy5 - Security6 - Policy & governance7 - Environment & ecosystems8 - STI systems

PreparednessERA relevance

Policy advice

Current signals indicating WI plausibilityFuture signals indicating WI plausibility

Analysis & Submission panels

Issueassessment

platform (iDelphi)

CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars

AGR Emergence of new agricultural methods for coping with climate change

CAP Administration rather than results a priority

SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security

NUC Development of new materials

ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world

SPA Privatisation of space flights

NAN Implantable electronics leaving no trace

SSH Concerns over socio-economic and humanities research "downgrade"

NUC Small-scale nuclear power plant operating

CAP Lack of interest in science by young scholars

CAP Administration rather than results a priority

SEC No strict global rules on nuclear security

ICT Next generation peer-to-peer content delivery platform

ENV Growing frequency of floods in Europe and the world

ICT Fast electronics for compact lab-on-chip applications

AGR Bees be no more, less food than before

ENV Growing environmental legal class actions on no-win no-fee basis

ENV Emergence of secondary carbon financial vehicles

HEA Increasing Self-Medication

Weak Signa

ls

Top 10

Weak Signals for

UK

40%match

Suicide bombing in Stockholm

Growing privatisation of war

Nuclear power plants built in third world countriesScientists predict mobile phone viruses will become a serious threat

No strict global rules on nuclear security

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Physical infrastructures Virtual infrastructures

Social welfare Economy

Security Policy & governance

Environment & ecosystems Science, technology & innovation (STI) systems

Sec Pol

Sec Pol Eco

Sec Eco STISec

SecEnv

Ph-I

EcoVi-I

SoW

5 National Studies 44 Policy Alerts66 Expert Interviews

44 STI Policy Alerts => Research Recommendations

From farmer to consumer: Diversifying cropproduction and consumption.Overreliance on a few core crops (e.g. wheat) makes food production and consumption vulnerable to any type of disruption. Were a new wheat disease to develop it could have severe implications for food markets worldwide, which could have unforeseen consequences such as starvation, civil unrest and high food prices. There is a need to prepare for diversifying food production and consumption in order to avoid such consequences. Farmers need to be assisted in order to better diversify their crops and consumers should be made aware of a greater variety of food products…

21 Grand Challenges & 11 Thematic Priorities

New Horizon Scanning System delivering products & services which meet the needs of senior leaders and workforce planners in health & social care in the UK

Research Technology

DevelopmentNetwork

ed Innovati

on

CfWI Networked Innovation Approach

iDelphiiBank iScan iOracle

Horizon Scanning Workforce Analysis

Workforce Modelling

Scenario Generation

Visioning Planning

FutureRealisation

•Key trends and dynamics•Feed in to the scenario generation

•Robust analysis•Sustainable, affordable

•Desired & possible futures•Delphi to refine assumptions •Weak signals

• Numbers, trends, uncertainty•Suite of demand models•Sensitivity analysis

iB

iD

iS

iO

CustomisedProducts & Services

IT

SOLUTIONS

Two Final Remarks

We hope the EC will support our iKnowFutures proposal 2.5 Million Euro Focused on Grand Responses to Grand Societal Challenges 17 partners in 11 countries▪ UK, FR, GE, AT, CZ, SP, NL, CH, IL, RU, BR

Meantime, we will continue providing customised solutions to players willing to track down developments shaping their own futures…

thank you

References[click on the images]