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From consumer to producerFrom consumer to producerSolar energy innovations in the built environmentSolar energy innovations in the built environment
Wim C. SinkeECN Solar Energy, Utrecht University & EU PV Technology Platform
Or:Or:
7 myths about solar energy7 myths about solar energy
3 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
The many faces of (photovoltaic) solar energy
solar cell electricity
heat
sunlight
4 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Myth 1
Solar energy is only for niches
5 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fact is:
Solar energy has practically unlimited potential and is indispensable for a sustainable energy future
(world, EU & NL)
6 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
oil
coal
gas
nuclear power
hydroelectricity
biomass (traditional)
biomass (advanced)
solar power (photovoltaics (PV) &
solar thermal generation (CSP)
solar thermal (heat only)
other renewables
geothermal
wind energy
Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de (example scenario)
year
2000 2020 2040
200
600
1000
1400
2100
EJ/a
Solar energy in the energy transition
PV & CSPPV & CSP
7 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
2500 TWh2500 TWh
~1% of primary energy~1% of primary energy
1500 ~ 2000 GWp1500 ~ 2000 GWp
8 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
9 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
10 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Myth 2
Solar energy is only sunbelt countries
11 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fact is:
Solar energy is very evenly distributed compared to all other renewables
12 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Solar resource
solar irradiation in kWh/m2.day(source: ABB, 1998)
13 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Myth 3
Solar energy will never become competitive
14 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fact is:
Solar energy is competitive with peak power today and will reach grid parity
in all of Europe within 10 years
15 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Grid parity in Europe – 2007(lines to guide the eye)
irradiation PV generation(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600 0.83
1000 0.50
1400 0.36
1800 0.28
insolation map: Šúri M., Huld T.A., Dunlop E.D. Ossenbrink H.A., 2007. Potential of solar electricity generation in the European Union member states and candidate countries. Solar Energy (in press), http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/
16 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Grid parity in Europe – 2010 (lines to guide the eye)
irradiation PV generation(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600 0.50
1000 0.30
1400 0.21
1800 0.17
17 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Grid parity in Europe – 2015 (lines to guide the eye)
irradiation PV generation(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600 0.42
1000 0.25
1400 0.18
1800 0.14
18 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Grid parity in Europe – 2020 (lines to guide the eye)
irradiation PV generation(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600 0.33
1000 0.20
1400 0.14
1800 0.11
19 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Grid parity in Europe – 2030 (lines to guide the eye)
irradiation PV generation(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)
600 0.17
1000 0.10
1400 0.07
1800 0.06
20 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fingerprints of PV technology
0.250.512>10 Typical system energy pay-back time Southern Europe (yrs)
up to 60%up to 40%Up to 30%up to 25%(∼10%)Typical commercial concentrator module efficiencies
up to 40%up to 25%Up to 20%up to 15%up to 8%Typical commercial flat-plate module efficiencies (total area)
0.030.06(competitive with
wholesale electricity)
0.15 / 0.12(competitive with retail electricity)
0.30>2Typical electricity generation costs S Europe (2007 €/kWh)
0.512.5 / 2.05
(range 4~8)
>30Typical turn-key system price(2007 €/Wp, excl. VAT)
Long term potential
20302015 / 2020Today1980
Rounded figures
21 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fingerprints of PV technology
0.250.512>10 Typical system energy pay-back time Southern Europe (yrs)
up to 60%up to 40%Up to 30%up to 25%(∼10%)Typical commercial concentrator module efficiencies
up to 40%up to 25%Up to 20%up to 15%up to 8%Typical commercial flat-plate module efficiencies (total area)
0.030.06(competitive with
wholesale electricity)
0.15 / 0.12(competitive with retail electricity)
0.30>2Typical electricity generation costs S Europe (2007 €/kWh)
0.512.5 / 2.05
(range 4~8)
>30Typical turn-key system price(2007 €/Wp, excl. VAT)
Long term potential
20302015 / 2020Today1980
Rounded figures
22 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Myth 4
Solar energy is a pain in the neck forurban planners and architects
23 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fact is:
Solar energy can give added value(s) to buildings and is on its way to become a
versatile building element
24 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Solar resource NL: freedom in design for “sun-friendly” urban planning and architecture
Source: Holland Solar
orientation and tilt dependenceof yearly irradiance (NL)
< 10% loss
25 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Solar resource NL: freedom in design for “sun-friendly” urban planning and architecture
Source: Holland Solar
orientation and tilt dependenceof yearly irradiance (NL)
< 20% loss
26 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008Mayersloot (architect Tjerk Reijenga)
27 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008City of the Sun, courtesy: Municipality of Heerhugowaard
28 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008 DerbisolarWürth Solar
29 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008Office building ECN (architect Tjerk Reijenga)
30 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008 Würth Solar
31 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Ohta city, Japan
Photo courtesy SunConnex
Berlin, DE
Sunderland, UK
32 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
United Solar
33 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Myth 5
Solar energy is intermittent and unsuitable to build a reliable electricity supply
34 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fact is:
Solar energy in combination with other renewables, storage and a smart grid
can do the job
35 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Ken Zweibel, James Masonand Vasilis Fthenakis
36 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Europe - Middle East & North Africa (EU-MENA) grid
Source: DLR (DE) / Stichting GEZEN (NL)
Press release 26 Nov 2007:
Clean Power from Deserts for Europe, the Middle East and North Africa
Prince Hassan bin Talal of Jordan presents White Paper to EU Parliament
37 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
PV grid integration
Source: M. Braun, ISET, DE
38 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Myth 6
Solar energy is not sustainable
39 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Fact is:
The system energy pay-back time in NL is only 3 years now and will be reduced to <1 yr, on a technical lifetime of 25~40 yrs
40 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Energy pay-back time (NL):status and near-future development
Alsema, de Wild-Scholten and Fthenakis, Proc. EUPVSEC21 (2006)
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
ribbon multi mono ribbon multi mono
Ye
ar BoS
Frame
Laminate
41 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Myth 7
Solar energy is nice and may become important, but it’s better to wait a little
42 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Facts are:
The heat is on now
We have no time to lose
43 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
Global cell production 1997-2007 (in MWp)
Source: Photon,April 2008
• yearly growth of 30-70% in past 10 years (avg >40%/a)• volume 2007 of 4.3 GWp (35-40 km2)• turnover 2007 estimated at 15 G€ (modules + BoS)
China, Taiwan & RoW
Japan
Total
Europe
USA
44 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
inst
alle
d c
apac
ity
(MW
p)
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
year
consumer products
off-grid rural
off-grid commercial & other
grid-connected residential
grid-connected central
Installed power per application area
Source: Paul Maycock & Travis Bradford,Renewable Energy World (July/Aug 2007)
45 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
The Solar Europe Initiative within the SET-Plan Valencia 3rd Sept 2008 5th European PV Industry Forum
3. Defining a new Industry Objective
Percentage PV of EU electricity generation in 2020
12%
Percentage PV of newly installed and replaced plants until 25%
6%
15%
420 TWh
350 GWp1)
Lower Limit Upper Limit
40 %
1) Assumes 1,200 TWh p.a. per GWp2) Based on installed based 2007: 4,5 GWp
2020 Electricity Generation from PV:
2020 PV Installed Base:
CAGR of PV Installed Base: 2)
210 TWh
33%
175 GWp1)
PROPOSED TARGET
Solar Europe In
itiativ
e
46 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008
©Greenpeace
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