Booosting 20 jaar vooruit!_ jubileum oktober 2008_ Wim SInke

From consumer to producerFrom consumer to producerSolar energy innovations in the built environmentSolar energy innovations in the built environment

Wim C. SinkeECN Solar Energy, Utrecht University & EU PV Technology Platform

Or:Or:

7 myths about solar energy7 myths about solar energy

3 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008

The many faces of (photovoltaic) solar energy

solar cell electricity

heat

sunlight


Myth 1

Solar energy is only for niches


Fact is:

Solar energy has practically unlimited potential and is indispensable for a sustainable energy future

(world, EU & NL)


oil

coal

gas

nuclear power

hydroelectricity

biomass (traditional)

biomass (advanced)

solar power (photovoltaics (PV) &

solar thermal generation (CSP)

solar thermal (heat only)

other renewables

geothermal

wind energy

Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de (example scenario)

year

2000 2020 2040

200

600

1000

1400

2100

EJ/a

Solar energy in the energy transition

PV & CSPPV & CSP

http://www.wbgu.de/


2500 TWh2500 TWh

~1% of primary energy~1% of primary energy

1500 ~ 2000 GWp1500 ~ 2000 GWp




Myth 2

Solar energy is only sunbelt countries


Fact is:

Solar energy is very evenly distributed compared to all other renewables


Solar resource

solar irradiation in kWh/m2.day(source: ABB, 1998)


Myth 3

Solar energy will never become competitive


Fact is:

Solar energy is competitive with peak power today and will reach grid parity

in all of Europe within 10 years


Grid parity in Europe – 2007(lines to guide the eye)

irradiation PV generation(kWh/m2·yr) cost (€/kWh)

600 0.83

1000 0.50

1400 0.36

1800 0.28

insolation map: Šúri M., Huld T.A., Dunlop E.D. Ossenbrink H.A., 2007. Potential of solar electricity generation in the European Union member states and candidate countries. Solar Energy (in press), http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis/

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2006.12.007


Grid parity in Europe – 2010 (lines to guide the eye)


600 0.50

1000 0.30

1400 0.21

1800 0.17




600 0.42

1000 0.25

1400 0.18

1800 0.14




600 0.33

1000 0.20

1400 0.14

1800 0.11




600 0.17

1000 0.10

1400 0.07

1800 0.06


Fingerprints of PV technology

0.250.512>10 Typical system energy pay-back time Southern Europe (yrs)

up to 60%up to 40%Up to 30%up to 25%(∼10%)Typical commercial concentrator module efficiencies

up to 40%up to 25%Up to 20%up to 15%up to 8%Typical commercial flat-plate module efficiencies (total area)

0.030.06(competitive with

wholesale electricity)

0.15 / 0.12(competitive with retail electricity)

0.30>2Typical electricity generation costs S Europe (2007 €/kWh)

0.512.5 / 2.05

(range 4~8)

>30Typical turn-key system price(2007 €/Wp, excl. VAT)

Long term potential

20302015 / 2020Today1980

Rounded figures


Fingerprints of PV technology

0.250.512>10 Typical system energy pay-back time Southern Europe (yrs)

up to 60%up to 40%Up to 30%up to 25%(∼10%)Typical commercial concentrator module efficiencies

up to 40%up to 25%Up to 20%up to 15%up to 8%Typical commercial flat-plate module efficiencies (total area)

0.030.06(competitive with

wholesale electricity)

0.15 / 0.12(competitive with retail electricity)

0.30>2Typical electricity generation costs S Europe (2007 €/kWh)

0.512.5 / 2.05

(range 4~8)

>30Typical turn-key system price(2007 €/Wp, excl. VAT)

Long term potential

20302015 / 2020Today1980

Rounded figures


Myth 4

Solar energy is a pain in the neck forurban planners and architects


Fact is:

Solar energy can give added value(s) to buildings and is on its way to become a

versatile building element


Solar resource NL: freedom in design for “sun-friendly” urban planning and architecture

Source: Holland Solar

orientation and tilt dependenceof yearly irradiance (NL)

< 10% loss


Solar resource NL: freedom in design for “sun-friendly” urban planning and architecture

Source: Holland Solar

orientation and tilt dependenceof yearly irradiance (NL)

< 20% loss

26 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008Mayersloot (architect Tjerk Reijenga)

27 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008City of the Sun, courtesy: Municipality of Heerhugowaard

28 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008 DerbisolarWürth Solar

29 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008Office building ECN (architect Tjerk Reijenga)

30 BOOOSTING, 10 October 2008 Würth Solar


Ohta city, Japan

Photo courtesy SunConnex

Berlin, DE

Sunderland, UK


United Solar


Myth 5

Solar energy is intermittent and unsuitable to build a reliable electricity supply


Fact is:

Solar energy in combination with other renewables, storage and a smart grid

can do the job


Ken Zweibel, James Masonand Vasilis Fthenakis


Europe - Middle East & North Africa (EU-MENA) grid

Source: DLR (DE) / Stichting GEZEN (NL)

Press release 26 Nov 2007:

Clean Power from Deserts for Europe, the Middle East and North Africa

Prince Hassan bin Talal of Jordan presents White Paper to EU Parliament


PV grid integration

Source: M. Braun, ISET, DE


Myth 6

Solar energy is not sustainable


Fact is:

The system energy pay-back time in NL is only 3 years now and will be reduced to <1 yr, on a technical lifetime of 25~40 yrs


Energy pay-back time (NL):status and near-future development

Alsema, de Wild-Scholten and Fthenakis, Proc. EUPVSEC21 (2006)

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

2,00

2,50

3,00

3,50

4,00

ribbon multi mono ribbon multi mono

Ye

ar BoS

Frame

Laminate


Myth 7

Solar energy is nice and may become important, but it’s better to wait a little


Facts are:

The heat is on now

We have no time to lose


Global cell production 1997-2007 (in MWp)

Source: Photon,April 2008

• yearly growth of 30-70% in past 10 years (avg >40%/a)• volume 2007 of 4.3 GWp (35-40 km2)• turnover 2007 estimated at 15 G€ (modules + BoS)

China, Taiwan & RoW

Japan

Total

Europe

USA


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

inst

alle

d c

apac

ity

(MW

p)

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

year

consumer products

off-grid rural

off-grid commercial & other

grid-connected residential

grid-connected central

Installed power per application area

Source: Paul Maycock & Travis Bradford,Renewable Energy World (July/Aug 2007)


The Solar Europe Initiative within the SET-Plan Valencia 3rd Sept 2008 5th European PV Industry Forum

3. Defining a new Industry Objective

Percentage PV of EU electricity generation in 2020

12%

Percentage PV of newly installed and replaced plants until 25%

6%

15%

420 TWh

350 GWp1)

Lower Limit Upper Limit

40 %

1) Assumes 1,200 TWh p.a. per GWp2) Based on installed based 2007: 4,5 GWp

2020 Electricity Generation from PV:

2020 PV Installed Base:

CAGR of PV Installed Base: 2)

210 TWh

33%

175 GWp1)

PROPOSED TARGET

Solar Europe In

itiativ

e


©Greenpeace