2016 smrp 101616

Alan M Ross

Manufacturing Process ReliabilityReliability Centered Maintenance for Critical Electrical Equipment

Jason Dennison

Track 2

Alan RossVice President of Reliability, SDMyers Inc.

• BS Mechanical Engineering from Georgia Institute of Technology

• MBA from Georgia State University• CEO and Founder of Corporate

Development Institute• CEO and Founder of Kingdom Companies• Vice President of Reliability at SDMyers 

Jason C. DennisonSr. Solutions Manager, On Now Digital

• BS Chemical Engineering w/Polymer Specialization, University of Akron

• Six Sigma Black Belt• 13 years PM and technical leadership experience• DGA Monitor Technology study (2015) co-author• Adjunct instructor for Principles of Transformer

Maintenance 

Thanks to: John S. Moubray, Reliability-centered Maintenance 2nd Ed.

Industrialization Run to failure (RTF)

How did we get here?(and where is here?)

Thanks to: John S. Moubray, Reliability-centered Maintenance 2nd Ed.

The greatest generation took control

The war to end all wars

(WWII)

Mechanization:Maintenance Focus

Complexity of Production

Thanks to: John S. Moubray, Reliability-centered Maintenance 2nd Ed.

The boomers take control

Boom times:70s, 80s, 90s

Just In TimeLean Manufacturing

More regulations (OSHA, EPA)Reliability takes root

The NewMillennium

GlobalizationMaximum Capacity

Reliability-Centered Maint.ISO 55000 Asset Mgmnt.

Preparing for the NextGenwho will face new challenges with new tools and approaches

REDUCE

ISO 55000It will change the way we manage transformers

TRANSFER

ACCEPT AVOIDriskPriority 2

Priority 1

ISO 55000It will change the way we manage transformers

REDUCE

AVOIDrisk

management

ISO 5500 will create the processto classify transformers from RTF to Mission-Critical

Corporate/OrganizationManagement

Manage AssetPortfolio

Manage AssetSystems Networks

Manage individual Assetsover their Life Cycles

© 2014 The Woodhouse Partnership

Mission-CriticalTransformers

System-CriticalTransformers

Reliability andMaintenance

Activities efficiency and effectiveness

System performance,cost and risk control

Portfolio investmentperformance and

Keeping stakeholders happy

Unplanned outageswill have even greater consequences on organizational mission.

What matters most is not the cost of the transformer but the total cost of failure.

The best approach to structuring an organizationin order to avoid or reduce failures is determined

by these 3 key factors:

CompetentPersonnel1 • Subject Matter Experts

• Teaming Skills• Common Focus

DataCentricity2 • CMMS/EMS Standardization

• System Integrity• Essentially Predictive

MatrixCapability3 • Mature Departmental Integration

• Flexibility• Dynamic Decision Making

A Robust Risk Assessment ProgramThree Essential Elements

The Data ElementOne source of truth

The Human ElementCompetency and consistency

The Process ElementSimplification and standardization

Transformer RiskA reliability-centered approach to maintenance

What does it power?

o Can it be financially quantified in real dollars?

o Can it be categorized (on a scale of 1 to 4)?

o Is it mission-critical?

o Is it system-critical?

Transformer Life Cycle ReliabilityThe age of a transformer must be evaluatedwith the condition and load as significantcontributing factors.

Age

Condition

Load

Life Cycle

The Total Cost of Catastrophic FailureSafety and environmental impact will continue toplay greater roles in life cycle asset management.

DESTRUCTIVECONSEQUENCES

o Environment

o Safety

o Company Brand

Disclaimer“Past performance is not an indicator of future returns” may not apply.

Nameplate Historical Data Analytics can and must assist us in making predictive decision on transformer reliability

The case of the Colonel Carbon Monoxide in theparlor with an axe…

Prioritize RiskThis is the next step to take after determining criticality for a class or group of assets.

Mathematical Formula: Risk Priority Number (RPN)

RPN = Occurrence x Severity x Detection

Process Formula:Risk = Occurrence x Severity

Detection and Maintenance

The level on the Reliability-CenteredMaintenance scale should be based oncriticality and risk rather thanyour past practices.

New Manufacturing RiskTransformer Failure Rates

The Reliability Professional Dilemma

o Data history

o New data acquisition

o Standardization of process

o Data analytics

and then we add online monitors

The Generational ChallengeThe boomer brain drain will be replaced withnext-generation Google-brained staff who arelargely unprepared to meet all of the challenges.

The trend toward transformer monitoringis the result of a shift from testing, repairand maintenance to corporateasset reliability.

Taking monitoring seriously

The standard monitoring package for new transformers at a large municipality in the Southern US features 8 continuous monitoring devices.

How many monitors are we talking about?Main Tank Temperature Pressure Relief Rapid Pressure Rise Relay Liquid Level Smart Breather 3rd Party Smart Sensors

Windings Fiber Optic Winding Temp Simulated Winding Temp Partial Discharge (PD) Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC)

Bushings Capacitance Current Value Capacitance Alarm Set Points Tan Delta Value Tan Delta Alarm Set Points Temperature Value Temperature Alarm Set Point Leakage Current Value + Set Points

Load Tap Changer Contact Wear Status Current Position + Range Tap Run Time + Count Motor Current Power Motor Actuation Counter Alarm Set Points LTC Temperature and Differentials

Cooling Monitoring Motor Current Power + Motor Run Time Alarm Set Points Cooling Bank Temperature + Differentials Flow Indicator Status Efficiency Status

Conservator Tank Liquid Level Buccholz Relay Bladder Rupture Alarm

Source: Gauge and Monitor Supplier Example: 33 Monitoring Options

Monitor X

Detection Technology

Oil

DGA GasesIoT

DGA MonitoringPrinciples of Operation

The New ThreatThe impact of the Internet of things (IoT) will

ultimately be one of great benefit, but the sheer magnitude and complexity of data will create data chaos.

By 2020, the IoT will have expanded at a much fasterrate, resulting in a population of about 26 billion units(“things”) at that time. – GARTNER

The National Cable and Telecommunications Association puts the 2020 estimate at more than 50 billion units.

https://www.ncta.com/platform/industry-news/infographic-the-growth-of-the-internet-of-things/

Samsung’s Connected Refrigerator• Shared calendar• News• Social• Streaming music• 3 Cameras to view inside

Who asked for this?

The Internet of Things

usefulThe useful IoT is about:

• Self-directed controls• Finding exceptions to patterns

(DGA Monitors, Smart Meters)• Developing new patterns (Fleet

Movement, Smart Grid)• Autonomous controls

• Enforcing and alerting continuous patterns (HVAC, Security, Medical)

We need to start concerning ourselves with theUseful Internet of Things

data• “85% of the billions of sensors

and data access points needed to monitor machines exist today, but aren’t being accessed.” – IMS RESEARCH

• “Less than 1% of Internet of Things data is currently used, mostly for alarms and real-time control.” – MCKINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE

IoT Data Usage

DGA monitoring challenges• Data Chaos (see graphic)• Access to the data

(non-networked, networked, regulatory concerns)

• Limited mostly to oil• Quality of info (false alarms)• Price / Capital

The benefits are great,but there are monitoring challenges

With odds of 9 in 100,000: You are only slightly less likely to be struck by lightning (1/12,000) in your lifetime than to find the real alarm data on your own (1/11,111).

The least-interesting pie chart in the deck

Sample of 48 DGA Monitors in 24 months- 100,000 records- 479 total alarms- 31 valid alarms:

Communications- 9 valid alarms:

DGA of consequence

Thing / Data Source

Internal Analytics / Immediate Feedback

Data Relationships / Data Warehouse

Diagnostic / Reporting AnalyticsCould / DatabaseAzure, AWS, SQL, PI etc.

UIoT Analytics: Principles of Operation

Data Analysis and Analytics

• Time boundaries are a challenge: < 1s, seconds, minutes, hours, days, months, years are all intervals of data gathering to reconcile in data warehouse for summary

• Network connectivity and communication and IT support between controls networking, LAN, WAN, cloud

• Business process between maintenance, reliability, technical, IT, corporate policy, local – state – federal policy

• Cyber-security for critical asset data• Things will cry wolf• Administrative overhead for setup and maintenance• Technical overhead for data analysis and reporting

Data Management and Analytics Challenges

The Engineer of the Futuremust be trained and developed for a new tomorrow

alan.ross@sdmyers.comjason.dennison@onnowdigital.com

Questions?

Thank you!