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Alan M Ross
Manufacturing Process ReliabilityReliability Centered Maintenance for Critical Electrical Equipment
Jason Dennison
Track 2
Alan RossVice President of Reliability, SDMyers Inc.
• BS Mechanical Engineering from Georgia Institute of Technology
• MBA from Georgia State University• CEO and Founder of Corporate
Development Institute• CEO and Founder of Kingdom Companies• Vice President of Reliability at SDMyers
Jason C. DennisonSr. Solutions Manager, On Now Digital
• BS Chemical Engineering w/Polymer Specialization, University of Akron
• Six Sigma Black Belt• 13 years PM and technical leadership experience• DGA Monitor Technology study (2015) co-author• Adjunct instructor for Principles of Transformer
Maintenance
Thanks to: John S. Moubray, Reliability-centered Maintenance 2nd Ed.
Industrialization Run to failure (RTF)
How did we get here?(and where is here?)
Thanks to: John S. Moubray, Reliability-centered Maintenance 2nd Ed.
The greatest generation took control
The war to end all wars
(WWII)
Mechanization:Maintenance Focus
Complexity of Production
Thanks to: John S. Moubray, Reliability-centered Maintenance 2nd Ed.
The boomers take control
Boom times:70s, 80s, 90s
Just In TimeLean Manufacturing
More regulations (OSHA, EPA)Reliability takes root
The NewMillennium
GlobalizationMaximum Capacity
Reliability-Centered Maint.ISO 55000 Asset Mgmnt.
Preparing for the NextGenwho will face new challenges with new tools and approaches
REDUCE
ISO 55000It will change the way we manage transformers
TRANSFER
ACCEPT AVOIDriskPriority 2
Priority 1
ISO 55000It will change the way we manage transformers
REDUCE
AVOIDrisk
management
ISO 5500 will create the processto classify transformers from RTF to Mission-Critical
Corporate/OrganizationManagement
Manage AssetPortfolio
Manage AssetSystems Networks
Manage individual Assetsover their Life Cycles
© 2014 The Woodhouse Partnership
Mission-CriticalTransformers
System-CriticalTransformers
Reliability andMaintenance
Activities efficiency and effectiveness
System performance,cost and risk control
Portfolio investmentperformance and
Keeping stakeholders happy
Unplanned outageswill have even greater consequences on organizational mission.
What matters most is not the cost of the transformer but the total cost of failure.
The best approach to structuring an organizationin order to avoid or reduce failures is determined
by these 3 key factors:
CompetentPersonnel1 • Subject Matter Experts
• Teaming Skills• Common Focus
DataCentricity2 • CMMS/EMS Standardization
• System Integrity• Essentially Predictive
MatrixCapability3 • Mature Departmental Integration
• Flexibility• Dynamic Decision Making
A Robust Risk Assessment ProgramThree Essential Elements
The Data ElementOne source of truth
The Human ElementCompetency and consistency
The Process ElementSimplification and standardization
Transformer RiskA reliability-centered approach to maintenance
What does it power?
o Can it be financially quantified in real dollars?
o Can it be categorized (on a scale of 1 to 4)?
o Is it mission-critical?
o Is it system-critical?
Transformer Life Cycle ReliabilityThe age of a transformer must be evaluatedwith the condition and load as significantcontributing factors.
Age
Condition
Load
Life Cycle
The Total Cost of Catastrophic FailureSafety and environmental impact will continue toplay greater roles in life cycle asset management.
DESTRUCTIVECONSEQUENCES
o Environment
o Safety
o Company Brand
Disclaimer“Past performance is not an indicator of future returns” may not apply.
Nameplate Historical Data Analytics can and must assist us in making predictive decision on transformer reliability
The case of the Colonel Carbon Monoxide in theparlor with an axe…
Prioritize RiskThis is the next step to take after determining criticality for a class or group of assets.
Mathematical Formula: Risk Priority Number (RPN)
RPN = Occurrence x Severity x Detection
Process Formula:Risk = Occurrence x Severity
Detection and Maintenance
The level on the Reliability-CenteredMaintenance scale should be based oncriticality and risk rather thanyour past practices.
New Manufacturing RiskTransformer Failure Rates
The Reliability Professional Dilemma
o Data history
o New data acquisition
o Standardization of process
o Data analytics
and then we add online monitors
The Generational ChallengeThe boomer brain drain will be replaced withnext-generation Google-brained staff who arelargely unprepared to meet all of the challenges.
The trend toward transformer monitoringis the result of a shift from testing, repairand maintenance to corporateasset reliability.
Taking monitoring seriously
The standard monitoring package for new transformers at a large municipality in the Southern US features 8 continuous monitoring devices.
How many monitors are we talking about?Main Tank Temperature Pressure Relief Rapid Pressure Rise Relay Liquid Level Smart Breather 3rd Party Smart Sensors
Windings Fiber Optic Winding Temp Simulated Winding Temp Partial Discharge (PD) Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) Geomagnetically Induced Current (GIC)
Bushings Capacitance Current Value Capacitance Alarm Set Points Tan Delta Value Tan Delta Alarm Set Points Temperature Value Temperature Alarm Set Point Leakage Current Value + Set Points
Load Tap Changer Contact Wear Status Current Position + Range Tap Run Time + Count Motor Current Power Motor Actuation Counter Alarm Set Points LTC Temperature and Differentials
Cooling Monitoring Motor Current Power + Motor Run Time Alarm Set Points Cooling Bank Temperature + Differentials Flow Indicator Status Efficiency Status
Conservator Tank Liquid Level Buccholz Relay Bladder Rupture Alarm
Source: Gauge and Monitor Supplier Example: 33 Monitoring Options
Monitor X
Detection Technology
Oil
DGA GasesIoT
DGA MonitoringPrinciples of Operation
The New ThreatThe impact of the Internet of things (IoT) will
ultimately be one of great benefit, but the sheer magnitude and complexity of data will create data chaos.
By 2020, the IoT will have expanded at a much fasterrate, resulting in a population of about 26 billion units(“things”) at that time. – GARTNER
The National Cable and Telecommunications Association puts the 2020 estimate at more than 50 billion units.
https://www.ncta.com/platform/industry-news/infographic-the-growth-of-the-internet-of-things/
Samsung’s Connected Refrigerator• Shared calendar• News• Social• Streaming music• 3 Cameras to view inside
Who asked for this?
The Internet of Things
usefulThe useful IoT is about:
• Self-directed controls• Finding exceptions to patterns
(DGA Monitors, Smart Meters)• Developing new patterns (Fleet
Movement, Smart Grid)• Autonomous controls
• Enforcing and alerting continuous patterns (HVAC, Security, Medical)
We need to start concerning ourselves with theUseful Internet of Things
data• “85% of the billions of sensors
and data access points needed to monitor machines exist today, but aren’t being accessed.” – IMS RESEARCH
• “Less than 1% of Internet of Things data is currently used, mostly for alarms and real-time control.” – MCKINSEY GLOBAL INSTITUTE
IoT Data Usage
DGA monitoring challenges• Data Chaos (see graphic)• Access to the data
(non-networked, networked, regulatory concerns)
• Limited mostly to oil• Quality of info (false alarms)• Price / Capital
The benefits are great,but there are monitoring challenges
With odds of 9 in 100,000: You are only slightly less likely to be struck by lightning (1/12,000) in your lifetime than to find the real alarm data on your own (1/11,111).
The least-interesting pie chart in the deck
Sample of 48 DGA Monitors in 24 months- 100,000 records- 479 total alarms- 31 valid alarms:
Communications- 9 valid alarms:
DGA of consequence
Thing / Data Source
Internal Analytics / Immediate Feedback
Data Relationships / Data Warehouse
Diagnostic / Reporting AnalyticsCould / DatabaseAzure, AWS, SQL, PI etc.
UIoT Analytics: Principles of Operation
Data Analysis and Analytics
• Time boundaries are a challenge: < 1s, seconds, minutes, hours, days, months, years are all intervals of data gathering to reconcile in data warehouse for summary
• Network connectivity and communication and IT support between controls networking, LAN, WAN, cloud
• Business process between maintenance, reliability, technical, IT, corporate policy, local – state – federal policy
• Cyber-security for critical asset data• Things will cry wolf• Administrative overhead for setup and maintenance• Technical overhead for data analysis and reporting
Data Management and Analytics Challenges
The Engineer of the Futuremust be trained and developed for a new tomorrow
