Leadership Texas May 2010 V2

Connecting the Dotsbetween Demographics,

Workforce and Immigration

Eddie Aldrete

Fear and Loathing

Border Fencing

• 298.5 Miles of Vehicle Fencing

• 365.3 Miles of Pedestrian Fencing

• 20.26 Miles of Levee Fencing

684.06 Total Miles Complete

Secure Fence Act of 2006

Current Fertility Rates

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80Percent

Latin America Mexico Northern America United States

2010LA 65.1MX 65.4NA 67.4US 67.1

2050LA 63.5MX 62.1 NA 61.4US 61.7

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Tuesday, April 22, 2008; 2:49:57 PM.

Labor Pool Trend (16-64 Yr.)

50

60

70

80

PercentChina JapanIndia EuropeAustralia/New Zealand United States

2010CHI 72.0JPN 64.1IND 64.0EUR 68.5

AUS/NZEA 67.3

2050CHI 61.0JPN 51.1IND 67.3EUR 57.9

AUS/NZEA 59.4

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Tuesday, April 22, 2008; 2:49:57 PM.

Labor Pool Trend (16-64 Yr.)

US 67.1

US 61.7

Current Fertility Rates

% of Growth Due to Each Ethnicity in Texas, 1980-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2007, and 2000-2040*

Sources: U.S. Census Counts, and State Data Center Projections, 0.5 Scenario

‘For the First Time, Hispanic Children are the Majority in Texas’ First Grade Classrooms’

• 130,000 fewer white children than 10 years ago

• Hispanic children dominate 1st grade classes (50.2%)

• White children now fewer than 1/3 of 1st graders

• Current white population of 11.5 million is near its’ peak and will begin to shrink as boomers die off

• Result would be the same if all undocumented were removed and no future inward migration allowed

February 14, 2009

Percent 65 Years Old and Older

< 11.9 (n=66)

12.0 - 14.9 (n=70)

15.0 - 19.9 (n=80)

20.0 or more (n=38)

Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1.

Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2000

14

Congressional Budget Office

“Unless native fertility rates

increase, it is likely that most of the

growth in the U.S. labor force will

come from immigration by the

middle of the century.”

Industry Shortages

• MANUFACTURING

• RESTAURANT / FOOD SERVICE

• HEALTHCARE

Manufacturing Shortages

90% of manufacturers are experiencing a shortage of qualified, skilled production employees, including:

• Machinists• Operators• Craft workers• Distributors• Technicians

National Association of Manufacturers

Restaurant Shortages

Over the next decade:

• Restaurant job growth -- 14%• Native-born US workforce -- 10% • Growth of 16 to 24 year-olds --

0.3%.

National Restaurant Association2009 Restaurant Industry Forecast

December 19, 2009

‘Doctors Without Borders’TexasTribune.org

40% of 1,500 fast-tracked, newly licensed doctors over the last 3 years, were trained at international med schools.

Alfredo Quiñones(1987)

Dr. QBrain Surgeon & Associate Professor of Neurosurgery and Oncology

Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, MD

Former AF Sec. Michael Wynne

We have a “geriatric” fleet that has to be replaced or it will put the Air Force “out of business.”

‘U.S. aerospace industry facing labor shortage’

January 21, 2008

40% eligible to retire by 2012

Boomer Retirements & Local Police

• More than 80% of nation’s 17,000 law enforcement agencies have vacancies that can’t be filled – (Police Chief Magazine, October 2006, vol 73, no 10)

• Law Enforcement shortages leave states without troopers– Texas Sunset Advisory Commission report cites “critical manpower shortage

at Texas DPS.

• ‘FBI drug standard lowered for hiring’– Current user vs. past drug use (USA Today 08/02/07)

• In order to meet recruiting goals, agencies are making exceptions for:– Bad credit– Poor performance on physical exams– Drug history– Prior gang activity– Failed polygraph exams (Texas DPS)

GAO ReportOLDER WORKERS: Federal Agencies Face Challenges

0

10

20304050

60708090

100

85

6863 60 58 57 56 56 55 54 54 54 54 53 52 52 52 51 51 51 51 51 51 50

Occupation

Percentage

Government Wide Average=33%Source: GAO analysis of CPDF data

• 14,000 BP agents in 2007

• 14,000 additional agents in appropriations bill

• 7 times as many grads in BP Academy in a year is a recipe for corruption

Help Wanted: U.S. Border Patrol

Cocaine Cowboys

POLICE DEPT VACANCIES %

Dallas 400 – 600 13% – 19%

Houston 600 12%

San Antonio 200 – 300 8% – 11%

Austin 82 6%

Ft. Worth 70 5%

Tyler 9 5%

Police Officer Recruitment: A Public Sector CrisisPolice Chief Magazine October 2006

Trooper Shortage Cuts Training Time

“The Department of Public Safety has 400 vacancies and is offering experienced law officers a chance to become troopers in just two months.”

Associated Press - 02/26/2010

Texas Hunting Industry• In 2009, Texas lost

approximately $346,000 when boomers turned 65 and paid reduced license fees.

State Targeting Girls to Boost Ranks of HuntersDallas Morning News

June 14, 2008

Arson

Burglary

Aggravated Assault

Breaking and Entering

DWI

‘Felons helped Army meet recruitment goal’

1,620 MORAL WAIVERSISSUED IN 2007

San Antonio Express-News10/12/2007

‘U.S. Military Will Offer Path to Citizenship’

February 14, 2009

Staff Sgt. Alejandro Campos, in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, became a citizen after joining the Army.

Most Common Questions

• Why do immigrants come?

• Do they compete with natives for American jobs?

• Do we really need immigrants with so many unemployed Americans?

Mexican Migration Follows Trends in U.S. Employment Rate

Apprehensions – A Function of Labor Demand(Detrended employment lagged 6 m)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

Apprehensions

EmploymentThousands, SA Thousands, SA

Source: BLS, DHS

Real-time Migration, U.S. and Mexican Business Cycles

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Thousands, SA

Source: CBP, Department of Homeland Security

Migrant apprehensions

Homeward Bound

Increasingly Bimodal Education Distribution (Foreign-born Workers)

Percent

Source: Ottaviano & Peri, 2005

Harry S. Dent Economist and Demographer

U. S. Joint Forces Command

“Russia needs to cope

with a rate of population decline

that literally has no historical

precedent in the absence of

pandemic.”

‘A Holiday From Russia With Love’

Japan

U. S. Joint Forces Command

“Japan’s population will fall from 128 million

to approximately 117 million

in the 2030’s…from the collapse of their

birth rate.”

‘Pickers Are Few, And Growers Blame Congress’New York Times

10/22/2006

‘As Farmworkers Become Scarcer, Congress Dithers’Washington Post

12/4/2007

‘Short on Labor, Farmers in U.S. Shift to Mexico’

12 U.S. Agribusinesses Have Moved to Mexico11,000 jobs outsourced

Software Development Center(1,500 Jobs to Vancouver, BC, Canada)

Microsoft Multiplier Effect:

4 : 1

For every job Microsoft creates, four other related jobs are created in the Washington

state economy.

1,500 Microsoft jobs outsourced

6,000 additional jobs outsourced?

Software Development Center(1,500 Jobs to Vancouver, BC, Canada)

$ 2.6 Million NASCAR Sponsorship

Mexico’s Birth Dearth

• Blockade• Hold-the-Line• Gatekeeper• Safeguard• Rio Grande• Triple Strike

• Return to Sender• Jump Start• Full Court Press• Stonegarden• Gunrunner• Armas Cruzadas

Southern Border Operations(Since 1993)

• Operation Linebacker• Operation Border Star• Operation Wrangler• Operation Texas Border Watch

– The Daily Show on webcams

Texas Border Operations

Between 1986 and 2002

• Increased Border Patrol’s budget by a factor of ten.

• Tripled the number of Border Patrol agents

• Spent eight times as many hours patrolling the border

The Results

• Undocumented population doubled

• Death rate for border crossings tripled

• Probability of apprehension dropped significantly

• Per-apprehension cost has risen 476%

• Circularity has stopped

Ronald Reagan -- The Voice of Reason

Lincoln-Juarez Bridge, Laredo, Texas

Lincoln-Juarez Bridge, Laredo, Texas

View from Nuevo Laredo,

Mexico

Lines & Delays = Economic Harm

Delays impact “Just-in-Time” facilities such as Toyota Assembly Plant in San Antonio

Trends in International TravelU.S. welcomed 2 million fewer overseas visitors in 2007 than 2000

www.poweroftravel.orgTravel Industry Association of America

www.poweroftravel.orgTravel Industry Association of America

Trends in International Travel

Travel around world + 28% compared to travel to USA - 8%

Trends in International Travel45 Million Fewer Visitors Between 2000 and 2007

www.poweroftravel.orgTravel Industry Association & US Commerce Dept

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 0715

20

25

30

35

40

Between 2000 and 2007, 45 Million Fewer Visitors to US

Compared to Global Travel Trends

Actual Overseas Arrivals (Millions)Expected Overseas Ar-rivals if the US were con-sistent with Long-Haul Global Travel Trends (Mil-lions)

YEAR

Mil

lio

ns

of

Vis

ito

rs

‘Most Popular Soccer Team in the U.S.: Mexico?’

63,227 Charlotte, NC

75,000 Meadowlands, NJ

90,000 Pasadena, CA

Carrizo Cane Along Rio Grande River

‘Border officials fight cover-providing weeds’

April 6, 2007

“Carrizo cane, the invasive,

non-native plant grows

stalks up to18 feet tall

and can get so dense it

makes roads impassable.”

Can You Spot the Border Patrol?

Carrizo Cane (before)

Carrizo Cane (after)

Essential to our Economy

Solutions

• An immigration system that works• Focus on human mobility• Balance security with facilitation• Smart borders• Floating visa caps• Implement US Chamber’s Infrastructure

Initiative for roadways and railways• Restore America’s image around the world