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Connecting the Dotsbetween Demographics,
Workforce and Immigration
Eddie Aldrete
Fear and Loathing
Border Fencing
• 298.5 Miles of Vehicle Fencing
• 365.3 Miles of Pedestrian Fencing
• 20.26 Miles of Levee Fencing
684.06 Total Miles Complete
Secure Fence Act of 2006
Current Fertility Rates
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80Percent
Latin America Mexico Northern America United States
2010LA 65.1MX 65.4NA 67.4US 67.1
2050LA 63.5MX 62.1 NA 61.4US 61.7
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Tuesday, April 22, 2008; 2:49:57 PM.
Labor Pool Trend (16-64 Yr.)
50
60
70
80
PercentChina JapanIndia EuropeAustralia/New Zealand United States
2010CHI 72.0JPN 64.1IND 64.0EUR 68.5
AUS/NZEA 67.3
2050CHI 61.0JPN 51.1IND 67.3EUR 57.9
AUS/NZEA 59.4
Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: The 2005 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Tuesday, April 22, 2008; 2:49:57 PM.
Labor Pool Trend (16-64 Yr.)
US 67.1
US 61.7
Current Fertility Rates
% of Growth Due to Each Ethnicity in Texas, 1980-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2007, and 2000-2040*
Sources: U.S. Census Counts, and State Data Center Projections, 0.5 Scenario
‘For the First Time, Hispanic Children are the Majority in Texas’ First Grade Classrooms’
• 130,000 fewer white children than 10 years ago
• Hispanic children dominate 1st grade classes (50.2%)
• White children now fewer than 1/3 of 1st graders
• Current white population of 11.5 million is near its’ peak and will begin to shrink as boomers die off
• Result would be the same if all undocumented were removed and no future inward migration allowed
February 14, 2009
Percent 65 Years Old and Older
< 11.9 (n=66)
12.0 - 14.9 (n=70)
15.0 - 19.9 (n=80)
20.0 or more (n=38)
Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1.
Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2000
14
Congressional Budget Office
“Unless native fertility rates
increase, it is likely that most of the
growth in the U.S. labor force will
come from immigration by the
middle of the century.”
Industry Shortages
• MANUFACTURING
• RESTAURANT / FOOD SERVICE
• HEALTHCARE
Manufacturing Shortages
90% of manufacturers are experiencing a shortage of qualified, skilled production employees, including:
• Machinists• Operators• Craft workers• Distributors• Technicians
National Association of Manufacturers
Restaurant Shortages
Over the next decade:
• Restaurant job growth -- 14%• Native-born US workforce -- 10% • Growth of 16 to 24 year-olds --
0.3%.
National Restaurant Association2009 Restaurant Industry Forecast
December 19, 2009
‘Doctors Without Borders’TexasTribune.org
40% of 1,500 fast-tracked, newly licensed doctors over the last 3 years, were trained at international med schools.
Alfredo Quiñones(1987)
Dr. QBrain Surgeon & Associate Professor of Neurosurgery and Oncology
Johns Hopkins, Baltimore, MD
Former AF Sec. Michael Wynne
We have a “geriatric” fleet that has to be replaced or it will put the Air Force “out of business.”
‘U.S. aerospace industry facing labor shortage’
January 21, 2008
40% eligible to retire by 2012
Boomer Retirements & Local Police
• More than 80% of nation’s 17,000 law enforcement agencies have vacancies that can’t be filled – (Police Chief Magazine, October 2006, vol 73, no 10)
• Law Enforcement shortages leave states without troopers– Texas Sunset Advisory Commission report cites “critical manpower shortage
at Texas DPS.
• ‘FBI drug standard lowered for hiring’– Current user vs. past drug use (USA Today 08/02/07)
• In order to meet recruiting goals, agencies are making exceptions for:– Bad credit– Poor performance on physical exams– Drug history– Prior gang activity– Failed polygraph exams (Texas DPS)
GAO ReportOLDER WORKERS: Federal Agencies Face Challenges
0
10
20304050
60708090
100
85
6863 60 58 57 56 56 55 54 54 54 54 53 52 52 52 51 51 51 51 51 51 50
Occupation
Percentage
Government Wide Average=33%Source: GAO analysis of CPDF data
• 14,000 BP agents in 2007
• 14,000 additional agents in appropriations bill
• 7 times as many grads in BP Academy in a year is a recipe for corruption
Help Wanted: U.S. Border Patrol
Cocaine Cowboys
POLICE DEPT VACANCIES %
Dallas 400 – 600 13% – 19%
Houston 600 12%
San Antonio 200 – 300 8% – 11%
Austin 82 6%
Ft. Worth 70 5%
Tyler 9 5%
Police Officer Recruitment: A Public Sector CrisisPolice Chief Magazine October 2006
Trooper Shortage Cuts Training Time
“The Department of Public Safety has 400 vacancies and is offering experienced law officers a chance to become troopers in just two months.”
Associated Press - 02/26/2010
Texas Hunting Industry• In 2009, Texas lost
approximately $346,000 when boomers turned 65 and paid reduced license fees.
State Targeting Girls to Boost Ranks of HuntersDallas Morning News
June 14, 2008
Arson
Burglary
Aggravated Assault
Breaking and Entering
DWI
‘Felons helped Army meet recruitment goal’
1,620 MORAL WAIVERSISSUED IN 2007
San Antonio Express-News10/12/2007
‘U.S. Military Will Offer Path to Citizenship’
February 14, 2009
Staff Sgt. Alejandro Campos, in Bay Ridge, Brooklyn, became a citizen after joining the Army.
Most Common Questions
• Why do immigrants come?
• Do they compete with natives for American jobs?
• Do we really need immigrants with so many unemployed Americans?
Mexican Migration Follows Trends in U.S. Employment Rate
Apprehensions – A Function of Labor Demand(Detrended employment lagged 6 m)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
Apprehensions
EmploymentThousands, SA Thousands, SA
Source: BLS, DHS
Real-time Migration, U.S. and Mexican Business Cycles
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Thousands, SA
Source: CBP, Department of Homeland Security
Migrant apprehensions
Homeward Bound
Increasingly Bimodal Education Distribution (Foreign-born Workers)
Percent
Source: Ottaviano & Peri, 2005
Harry S. Dent Economist and Demographer
U. S. Joint Forces Command
“Russia needs to cope
with a rate of population decline
that literally has no historical
precedent in the absence of
pandemic.”
Japan
U. S. Joint Forces Command
“Japan’s population will fall from 128 million
to approximately 117 million
in the 2030’s…from the collapse of their
birth rate.”
‘Pickers Are Few, And Growers Blame Congress’New York Times
10/22/2006
‘As Farmworkers Become Scarcer, Congress Dithers’Washington Post
12/4/2007
‘Short on Labor, Farmers in U.S. Shift to Mexico’
12 U.S. Agribusinesses Have Moved to Mexico11,000 jobs outsourced
Software Development Center(1,500 Jobs to Vancouver, BC, Canada)
Microsoft Multiplier Effect:
4 : 1
For every job Microsoft creates, four other related jobs are created in the Washington
state economy.
1,500 Microsoft jobs outsourced
6,000 additional jobs outsourced?
Software Development Center(1,500 Jobs to Vancouver, BC, Canada)
$ 2.6 Million NASCAR Sponsorship
Mexico’s Birth Dearth
• Blockade• Hold-the-Line• Gatekeeper• Safeguard• Rio Grande• Triple Strike
• Return to Sender• Jump Start• Full Court Press• Stonegarden• Gunrunner• Armas Cruzadas
Southern Border Operations(Since 1993)
• Operation Linebacker• Operation Border Star• Operation Wrangler• Operation Texas Border Watch
– The Daily Show on webcams
Texas Border Operations
Between 1986 and 2002
• Increased Border Patrol’s budget by a factor of ten.
• Tripled the number of Border Patrol agents
• Spent eight times as many hours patrolling the border
The Results
• Undocumented population doubled
• Death rate for border crossings tripled
• Probability of apprehension dropped significantly
• Per-apprehension cost has risen 476%
• Circularity has stopped
Ronald Reagan -- The Voice of Reason
Lincoln-Juarez Bridge, Laredo, Texas
Lincoln-Juarez Bridge, Laredo, Texas
View from Nuevo Laredo,
Mexico
Lines & Delays = Economic Harm
Delays impact “Just-in-Time” facilities such as Toyota Assembly Plant in San Antonio
Trends in International TravelU.S. welcomed 2 million fewer overseas visitors in 2007 than 2000
www.poweroftravel.orgTravel Industry Association of America
www.poweroftravel.orgTravel Industry Association of America
Trends in International Travel
Travel around world + 28% compared to travel to USA - 8%
Trends in International Travel45 Million Fewer Visitors Between 2000 and 2007
www.poweroftravel.orgTravel Industry Association & US Commerce Dept
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 0715
20
25
30
35
40
Between 2000 and 2007, 45 Million Fewer Visitors to US
Compared to Global Travel Trends
Actual Overseas Arrivals (Millions)Expected Overseas Ar-rivals if the US were con-sistent with Long-Haul Global Travel Trends (Mil-lions)
YEAR
Mil
lio
ns
of
Vis
ito
rs
‘Most Popular Soccer Team in the U.S.: Mexico?’
63,227 Charlotte, NC
75,000 Meadowlands, NJ
90,000 Pasadena, CA
‘Border officials fight cover-providing weeds’
April 6, 2007
“Carrizo cane, the invasive,
non-native plant grows
stalks up to18 feet tall
and can get so dense it
makes roads impassable.”
Can You Spot the Border Patrol?
Carrizo Cane (before)
Carrizo Cane (after)
Essential to our Economy
Solutions
• An immigration system that works• Focus on human mobility• Balance security with facilitation• Smart borders• Floating visa caps• Implement US Chamber’s Infrastructure
Initiative for roadways and railways• Restore America’s image around the world
