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66
Journal of Social Science and Humanities Research
Vol. 2 Issue 4 April 2016 Paper 5
Climate Change in Ethiopia
Variability, Impact, Mitigation, and Adaptation
Corresponding Authors: Belay Zerga1
Getaneh Gebeyehu2
1. Department of Natural Resources Management, Wolkite University, Ethiopia-Email Address: belayzerga@Gmail.com
2. Department of Biology, Asosa University, Ethiopia- Email Address: getanehgebeyehu- Email Address: @yahoo.com
Abstract
Climate change refers to long term fluctuations of temperature, precipitation, wind and other elements of
Earth’s climate system. It is a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global and/or regional atmosphere. Natural climate variability observed over
comparable time periods in the types of changes of temperature and rainfall. It occurs because of internal
variability within the climate system and external factors. The external causes may be natural or human induced
activity. Human activities cause climate change mainly due to fossil fuel burning and removal of forests.
Ethiopia’s contribution to GHG emissions is very low on a global scale. The emissions of greenhouse gases are
predominantly from high-income countries while the negative effects of climate change are predominantly in low
income countries. This means climate change is generally expected to hit developing countries harder than
industrialized countries. Developing countries are less capable of mitigating or adapting to the changes due to
their poverty and high dependence on the environment for subsistence. It has brought an escalating burden to
already existing environmental concerns of the country mainly by anthropogenic factors. Climate change causes
wide-ranging effects on the environment, socio-economic and related sectors, including water resources,
agriculture and food security, human health, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity. Similarly, the mainstay of
the Ethiopian economy is rain-fed agriculture, which is heavily sensitive to climate variability and change. In
addition, many species with limited geographical opportunities, restricted habitat requirements and/or small
populations are typically the most vulnerable. The Ethiopian Government has already put in place a number of
policies, strategies and programs aimed at enhancing the adaptive capacity and reducing climate variability and
change. Thus, the country’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) focuses on four pillars (namely
agriculture, forestry, renewable energy, and advanced technologies) that will support Ethiopia’s developing
green economy. Thus, this review paper tries to see climate change and its mitigation and adaptation efforts in
Ethiopia.
Key words: Climate change, Climate change variability, Climate change drivers, Impacts of climate change,
Climate change mitigation, Climate change adaptation, Ethiopia
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1. Introduction
1.1 Background
The subject of public opinion on climate change, and in particular climate change scepticism, is becoming one
of increasing interest in the social sciences (Engels et al., 2013; Hobson & Niemeyer, 2013; Koteyko et al.,
2012; Painter & Ashe, 2012; Poortinga et al., 2011). A useful summary of the subject is given by Pidgeon
(2012), in an article introducing a volume of papers on the risks associated with climate change and public
perception of these risks. Pidgeon notes that there has been a decline in public concern about climate change in
recent years, and that this is a surprise to the academic community.
The decline in climate concern, and corresponding increase in climate scepticism, has been observed in many
opinion polls in several countries. Brulle et al. (2012) observed that environmental issues are ranked low among
issues of public concern in the USA, and that within this category, global warming was ranked lowest of nine
topics in one poll. They constructed an index of climate concern, which after a peak in 2007 fell considerably.
Increase in scepticism among the USA public from 2002 to 2010 was found by Smith and Leiserowitz (2012).
Poortinga et al. (2011) report surveys showing increasing scepticism in Europe and the USA, while Whitmarsh
(2011) found a doubling in the proportion of the UK public who think climate change has been exaggerated
between surveys in 2003 and 2008.
Several papers have looked at the different levels of climate scepticism in different countries, showing
significant variation but not a consistent picture. Research has found greater news coverage of climate scepticism
in the US and the UK than in other countries such as France (Painter & Ashe, 2012), lower prominence of
scepticism in Germany compared with the UK and USA (Engels et al., 2013), more visibility of skeptical views
in the US and France compared with the UK and Germany (Grundmann & Scott, 2012), and much higher levels
of scepticism in The Netherlands, UK and USA than in Brazil and Mexico (Hagen, 2013). The relatively large
and increasing numbers of people expressing doubts about climate change has naturally prompted investigations
into the causes of this phenomenon.
An investigation into “What sceptics believe” (Hobson & Niemeyer, 2013) acknowledged the importance of
this question, studied it using interviews with volunteers, attempting to categorize sceptics into 5 groups, and
explored what impact deliberative forum discussions may have, with mixed results. Factors that have been
suggested as possible reasons for scepticism include the recent economic downturn, sceptical articles in the
media, politics and worldviews, fatigue with repetition of the message, or a run of recent cold winters. It has
been found that levels of education and science knowledge are not important factors (Kahan et al., 2012;
Whitmarsh, 2011). Brulle et al. (2012) considered several possible drivers for public concern, concluding that
the weather and provision of scientific information were relatively minor factors, while the media and political
issues are more significant. A study by Lahsen (2013) interviewed a number of climate sceptics with a physics or
meteorology background, noting their concerns regarding climate models, observing an association with age and
with conservative values. Both of these studies focus on the USA, where political aspects may be more prevalent
than elsewhere.
A potential pitfall of such studies is that is easy to muddle cause and effect. If a climate sceptic associates with
a conservative political group, does this indicate that his scepticism is politically motivated, or that the
conservative group is the only one that allows him a platform to speak? If there are increasing numbers of
sceptical articles in the media, is this an explanation for a change in public opinion, or is this media presence
merely a reflection of the change in public opinion (Krosnick & MacInnis, 2010)? In such complex social issues
it can be difficult to distinguish between correlation and causation. One further factor that may have influenced
public opinion is the 2009 “Climategate” incident in which many emails between climate scientists were released
on the internet (Grundmann, 2013; Koteyko et al., 2012; Montford, 2012). This led to some criticisms of climate
scientists regarding misleading presentation of data, bias in the process of literature review, and withholding of
data. The debate about whether this had a major impact is ongoing. What appears to be missing from the
literature and from opinion polls is a detailed investigation of exactly what people are sceptical about and what
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are their reasons for being sceptical. The latter question in particular does not appear to be used in opinion
surveys.
It is a misconception that those who consider themselves skeptical of the human contribution to climate change
do not believe that the climate is warming, and further, that a skeptical point of view is naïve, dangerous or
worse. There is no doubt that the climate is changing today, and that it has changed in the past. There is no doubt
even that it is warming as it has been since the mid- 1800s. The climate has undergone radical change in Earth’s
history even before humans arrived on the scene. Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) focuses
on four pillars (namely agriculture, forestry, renewable energy, and advanced technologies) that will support
Ethiopia’s developing green economy. Thus, this review paper tries to see climate change and its mitigation and
adaptation efforts in Ethiopia.
1.2 Objectives
General objective
The overall objective of the review is to assess climate change drivers, impacts and their mitigation and
adaptation strategies in Ethiopia.
Specific objectives
To describe climate change variability
To discuss drivers/causes of climate change
To explain the impacts of climate change on environment and livelihood
To identify mitigation and adaptation strategies
2. Climate Change Variability
Climate change is a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity. It alters the
composition of the global and/or regional atmosphere and natural climate variability observed over comparable
time periods. Climatic variabilities are the types of changes (temperature, rainfall, occurrence of extremes);
magnitude and rate of the climate change that causes the impacts on the area of public health, agriculture, food
security, forest hydrology and water resources, coastal area, biodiversity, human settlement, energy, industry,
and financial services. Changes in physical and socio-economic system have been identified in many regions
(UNFCCC, 2007). According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), the global average surface temperature is likely to rise by 1.8 degrees to 4.0 degrees Celsius by
2100. The sea level may rise by 30 to 60 centimeters. Climate variability will increase almost everywhere.
Northern latitudes will experience more rainfall; many subtropical regions will see less (IPCC, 2001).
Detecting these changes and associating them with climate change poses huge problems since these systems
are usually subject to many stress factors other than climate change too. Vulnerability is the degree to which a
system (such as a social-ecological system) is likely to be wounded or experience harm or stress in the natural or
social environment. Vulnerability results from a combination of processes that shape the degrees of exposure to a
hazard, sensitivity to its stress and impacts, and resilience in the face of those effects. It is also considered a
characteristic of all people, ecosystems, and regions confronting environmental or socioeconomic stresses and,
although the level of vulnerability varies widely, it is generally higher among poorer people (Kasperson et al.,
2001).
Baseline climate that was developed using historical data of temperature and precipitation from 1971-2000 for
selected stations in Ethiopia showed the year-to-year variation of rainfall for the period between 1951 to 2005
over the country expressed in terms of normalized rainfall anomaly averaged for 42 stations (NMA, 2007). The
country during those periods (1951 to 2005) has experienced both dry and wet years over the last 54 years. These
changes in the physical environment are expected to have an adverse effect on agricultural production, including
staple crops such as wheat and maize. Trend analysis of annual rainfall in Ethiopia shows that rainfall remained
more or less constant when averaged over the whole country while a declining trend has been observed over the
Northern and Southwestern Ethiopia (IPCC, 2007).
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The rainfall is highly variable both in amount and distribution across regions and seasons. The seasonal and
annual rainfall variations are results of the macro-scale pressure systems and monsoon flows which are related to
the changes in the pressure systems (Tesfaye, 2003). The spatial variation of the rainfall is influenced by the
changes in the intensity, position, and direction of movement of these rain-producing systems over the country
(Temesgen, 2000).
Moreover, the spatial distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia is significantly influenced by topography which also
has many unexpected changes in the Rift Valley. Being a closed basin, relatively small interventions in land and
water resources can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystems goods and services, and potentially
undermine the sustainable use of the area.
The National Metrological Agency (2001) revealed that in Ethiopia climate variability and change in the
country is mainly manifested through the variability and decreasing trend in rainfall and increasing trend in
temperature. Besides, rainfall and temperature patterns show large regional differences. For the IPCC mid-range
emission scenario, the mean annual temperature will increase in the range of 0.9 -1.1 °C by 2030, in the range of
1.7 - 2.1 °C by 2050 and in the range of 2.7-3.4 °C by 2080 over Ethiopia compared to the 1961-1990 normal. A
small increase in annual precipitation is expected over the country. Other sources of data have also substantiated
the variability of climate and its trends in a somewhat similar ways. Historical climate analysis for Ethiopia
indicates that mean annual temperature has increased by 1.3°C between 1960 and 2006, an average rate of
0.28°C per decade. The increase in temperature in Ethiopia has been most rapid in June, August, and September
at a rate of 0.32°C per decade (McSweeney et al, 2008). Rainfall is historically highly variable and there is no
clear trend in the amount of rainfall over time. (McSweeney et al, 2008 and NAPA, 2007). Studies of localized
meteorological data alongside community perceptions indicate that seasonal change may already be occurring as
there are declining and increasing trends in certain months of the year (ACCRA, 2011).
Mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 to 3.1°C in the 2060s, and 1.5 to 5.1°C in the 2090s.
Under a single emissions scenario, the projected changes from different models span a range of up to 2.1°C
(McSweeney et al, 2008).
The wide range between these different scenarios highlights the uncertainty in future projections for climate
change in Ethiopia. Clearly Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to current variability and there are also indications that
climate change will increase rainfall variability which will likely increase losses from rain-fed agriculture. The
ecosystems of the country as well as its community are highly exposed to climatic variability. Ethiopia is
vulnerable to climatic variability owing to its low adaptive capacity accountable to low level of socioeconomic
development, high population growth, inadequate infrastructure, lack of institutional capacity and high
dependence on climate sensitive natural resource-based activities (NMA, 2007).
3. Drivers/Causes of Climate Change
It occurs because of internal variability within the climate system and external factors. The external causes may
be natural or human induced human activity. Human activities cause climate change mainly fossil fuel burning
and removal of forests (Lovejoy and Hannah, 2005). These contribute to climate change by causing changes in
Earth’s atmosphere in the amounts of greenhouse gases, aerosols (small particles), and cloudiness (IPCC, 2007).
At global scale, the main cause of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is from carbon dioxide (70%), primarily
from burning of fossil fuel (petroleum) imported from industrialized countries, while the other sources for GHG
are methane and nitrous oxide caused by deforestation and agricultural activities, particularly the use of
pesticides (Yohannes and Mebratu, 2009 ). Climate change, driven by fossil fuel combustion and deforestation,
is a becoming threat to lives and livelihoods in every part of the world at this time (Ackerman, 2009).
The latest assessment report by IPCC (2013) states with 95% confidence that human influence is the main
cause of the observed warming in the atmosphere and oceans and other indicators of climate change and that
continued emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) will cause further warming and changes in the components of
the climate system. The emissions of greenhouse gases are predominantly from high-income countries while the
negative effects of climate change are predominantly in low income countries. This means climate change is
generally expected to hit developing countries harder than industrialized countries, as the developing countries
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are less capable of mitigating or adapting to the changes due to their poverty and high dependence on the
environment for subsistence (UNDP, 2007).
3.1 Early Ethiopia’s Contribution to Climate Change
The emission of GHGs from various sources of energy usage has resulted in climate change by causing global
warming. Climate change is a key concern to Ethiopia in our time and need to be tackled in a state of emergency.
It has brought an escalating burden to already existing environmental concerns of the country including
deforestation (Ayana, 2011), agriculture sector (UNDP Ethiopia, 2011) land use and cover change (first report,
2001) and biomass consumption (First, 2001) and thus to anthropogenic climate change. This phenomenon is
occurring throughout the country and affecting every community although it may assume diverging degrees from
place to place as the country has varied landscape featured by contrasting altitudinal ranges.
According to FIRST (2001) report, the GHG emissions accounted to 900 kg CO2 equivalent per capita and
year in 1994. Compared to other countries, Ethiopia’s emissions are very low (e.g. the U.S. emissions amount to
23.7 tones CO2 equivalent per capita and year in 1994, but it is affected by the adverse impacts of climate
change brought by the carbon-intensive development paths of rich countries over the past century.
The direct contribution of agriculture in the country is about 80% of the total GHG emissions. It is ranked as
the most susceptible sector to climate change impacts and so do the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and
pastoralists. This reflects the fact that livestock farming goes together with high methane emissions. The
dominant position of livestock farming in Ethiopia’s economy also influences the relative contribution of GHG
to the total emissions (Fig. 1). These are dominated by methane emissions, which account for 80% of the
warming potential.
The land-use change & forestry (LUCF) sector has been a net sink in 1994 which amounted to about -15,063
Gg of CO2. This amount is a balance between changes in forest and other woody biomass stocks and forest and
grassland conversion subsectors. The country’s stock of natural forests, woodlands, shrubs, and plantations
sequestered about -27,573 Gg of CO2 in 1994 while emission of CO2 because of deforestation was estimated to
be 12,510 Gg in the same year (First, 2001).
.
Figure-1 Total greenhouse gases emission by sectors in 1994
Source: First report (2001)
In addition to agriculture, the energy sector (heating, cooking) and transport contributes to 15% of GHG
emissions. Biomass is the major source of household energy and estimates indicated that 95 percent of the total
energy consumption in the county was made up of biomass fuels consisting of fuel wood, animal dung and crop
residue (FIRST, 2001). Fuel wood use makes up 81.8 percent of these traditional sources, while animal dung and
crop residue make up 9.4 and 8.4 percent, respectively. Traditional fuels make up 99.9 percent of the rural
energy consumption and the rural population consumes 86.7 percent of the total net energy (EFAP, 1993). This
higher fuel wood consumption is due to increase in populations. GHG emissions of the country have to do much
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with the basic needs of the livelihoods of these populations. Therefore, the future GHG emissions will likely
increase with the projected increase in population.
3.2 Current Greenhouse Gas Emission Drivers
Ethiopia’s current contribution to the global increase in GHG emissions since the industrial revolution has been
practically negligible. Even after years of rapid economic expansion, today’s per capita emissions of less than 2 t
CO2e are modest compared with the more than 10 t per capita on average in the EU and more than 20 t per capita
in the US and Australia. Overall, Ethiopia’s total emissions of around 150 Mt CO2 e represent less than 0.3% of
global emissions.
Of the 150 Mt CO2 e in 2010, more than 85% of GHG emissions came from the agricultural and forestry
sectors. Power, transport, industry, and buildings follow them, which contributed 3% each (Table 1).
If current practices prevail, GHG emissions in Ethiopia will more than double from 150 Mt CO2 to 400 Mt
CO2 in 2030. On a per capita basis, emissions are set to increase by more than 50% to 3.0 t CO2 and will thus
exceed the global target to keep per capita emissions between 1 t and 2 t per capita in order to limit the negative
effects on climate change.
Table 1: Emission drivers by sectors and Percent of GHG
Sector Drivers GHG (%)
Agriculture :
Livestock
Soil
Deforestation
Methane from enteric fermentation
N2O from manure left on pastures
Crop production
Fertilizer use
Manure management
51
Forestry Forest degradation 37
Transport Passengers (inner-city, intra-city, and
international)
Freight (dry, construction and mining,
and international cargo)
3
Industry Chemicals, agro-processing
Pulp and paper, leather and textile
Buildings and cities
Cement, mining
3
Buildings
and cities
Solid waste
Liquid waste
Off-grid fossil fuel
3
Energy Conventional and renewable sources 3
Source: UNDP Ethiopia (2011) and Wondwossen Sintayehu (2013)
3.2.1 Major Drivers to Climate Change
Deforestation and Forest Degradation
Deforestation is the destruction of forested areas followed by a change in the land use (usually to agriculture or
pasture) that prevents the forest from regenerating. Forest degradation refers to negative changes in the forest
area that limit its production capacity. One good example that contributes to forest degradation in Ethiopia is the
poorly regulated collection of firewood from natural forests.
In many tropical countries, the majority of deforestation results from the actions of poor subsistence
cultivators. According to IPCC (2007), annual emissions from deforestation stand at 5.8 Gt CO2, and around 17
per cent of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions come from the forestry sector as a whole, including
emissions from biomass decay, drained peat and peat fires. It is the third largest source of anthropogenic GHG
emissions after energy supply and industrial activity. The deforestation of tropical forests alone currently
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contributes 1.5 Gt C y-1 to the global anthropogenic emission (vs. 8.4 Gt C y the use of fossil energy sources;
Raupach et al, 2007; Canadell et al, 2007). It is from annually emissions which are comparable to the total
annual CO2 emissions from the US or China (IPCC, 2007a). Similarly, deforestation may account for up to 25%
of global total anthropogenic emissions, and is said to be the largest single source category in the developing
world.
Though forest sector is a major source of CO2 emissions, reducing forest emissions can be achieved at
relatively low cost compared with abatement in other sectors (Stern, 2007). Furthermore, as the large majority of
deforestation occurs in developing countries, any international system that channels finance to reduce
deforestation has the potential to help reduce poverty as well as preserve other ecosystem services such as
biodiversity and regional rainfall patterns (FAO, 2005).
Deforestation and forest degradation are driven by proximate/direct causes and underlying/indirect causes
(Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005). However, deforestation and degradation occur through different
processes. The main direct drivers of deforestation are generally agreed to be logging and the expansion of
agriculture and infrastructure. Demand for wood fuels drives much of Africa’s forest degradation. Though the
role of firewood in forest degradation is somewhat contested, charcoal dominates cooking energy choices in
urban areas and uncontrolled fires, livestock grazing in forests are widely recognized to contribute to forest
degradation.
Proximate causes are human activities or immediate actions that directly impact forest cover and loss of
carbon. These causes can be grouped into categories such as agriculture expansion (both commercial and
subsistence), infrastructure extension and wood extraction. Underlying causes are complex interactions of
fundamental social, economic, political, cultural and technological processes that are often distant from their area
of impact. These underpin the proximate causes and either operates at the local level or have an indirect impact
from the national or global level (Kissinger et al, 2012).
Forestry emissions are driven by deforestation for agricultural land (50% of all forestry-related emissions) and
forest degradation is due to fuel wood consumption (46%) as well as formal and informal logging (4%).
Deforestation leads to CO2 emissions, and is mostly caused by the conversion of forested areas to agricultural
land. Emissions are projected to grow from 25 Mt CO2 e in 2010 to almost 45 Mt in 2030 (EPA, 2011).
In addition to the deforestation caused by understandable needs, negligent as well as wanton destruction (such
as by fire), do contribute to deforestation. These types of deforestation have become increasingly frequent in the
last 20 years or so. This has been a period in which security of land tenure and access to natural resources were
undermined by unpopular policy measures such as frequent redistribution of land and restrictions in cutting and
utilizing trees, even in one's own backyard. Serious destruction of forests has occurred between the fall of the
previous government and the stabilization of the present one (EPA, 2011). As a result (CSA, 1999) the water
holding capacity of dams is decreasing rapidly due to increased siltation and consequently there is a pressure on
hydropower energy utilization; the heavy dependence on biomass resources such as animal dung for energy
supplies is leading to a situation where soils are being deprived of natural soil conditioners essential for
maintaining soil fertility and the fact that that the income of the majority of the population is too low to use
alternative energy sources has led to heavy dependence on biomass resources, which are, as a result, being
depleted from day to day.
Land use changes
Counting indirect emissions from land use changes through deforestation, and urbanization accounted one
percent of GHG release which also contribute to increase the atmospheric temperature. For instance,
deforestation would increase the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, because when forests (which act as major
carbon store) are cleared and the trees are either burnt or rot, the stored carbon is released as CO2 in the
atmosphere. Generally, land use changes remove the vegetation cover that absorbs the shortwave radiation,
thereby, leading to global warming. For developmental purposes, people cut down trees for economic purpose:
to expand cities, build houses, and create-large scale farming.
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Agriculture
Climate change affects agriculture and agriculture also affects climate change. Agriculture affects climate
change through the emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) from different farming practices (Edwards-Jones et al,
2009). Agriculture and land-use change (deforestation) are major contributors to climate change. The IPCC
Fourth Assessment Report found that agriculture, which consists of cropland, pasture and livestock production,
and forestry contribute, respectively, 13 and 17 percent of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (FAO,
2008). This contribution does not include other emissions associated with agriculture such as production of
fertilizers (accounted under industry), food supply (transport and industry), packaging (waste), and cooling and
heating (energy supply).
While carbon dioxide emissions from agriculture are small, the sector accounts for about 60 percent of all N2O
and about 50 percent of CH4 emitted, mainly from soils and enteric fermentation, respectively. The GHG impact
through radiative forcing of N2O is 300 times that of CO methane and nitrous oxide emissions increased by 17
percent from 1990 to 2005 and are projected to increase by another 35 to 60 percent by 2030, driven by growing
nitrogen fertilizer use and increased livestock production (FAO, 2008). Increases in agricultural emissions are
expected as population and economic growth increase food demand.
In a country-basis, the US and China are expected to experience the greatest absolute growth in agricultural
emissions by 2030 (dotted boxes), with over 100 Mt COe per year more than they produced in 2010 (CEA,
2014). By 2030, Ethiopia becomes among top thirteen contributors of direct agricultural GHG emission in the
world (122 MtCo2 e) (Figure-2).
Figure-2: Countries greater emission from agriculture by 2030
Source: EPA, 2012
Currently, the agricultural sector is also the highest source of emissions in Ethiopia, contributing to 51% of the
total emissions (UNDP Ethiopia, 2011) (Table 1). In agriculture, GHG emissions are attributable to first,
livestock and second, crops. Ethiopia currently has a cattle population of more than 50 million and nearly 100
million other livestock. Livestock generates greenhouse gases mainly in the form of methane emissions arising
from digestion processes (mostly attributable to ruminant animals like cattle) and nitrous oxide emissions arising
from excretions. Livestock emissions are estimated to amount to 65 MtCO2e-35% of Ethiopia’s total emissions
today. The cultivation of crops contributes to the concentration of greenhouse gases mainly due to the associated
use of fertilizer (~10 MtCO2e), which leads to nitrous oxide emissions, as well as N2O emission from crop
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residues reintroduced into the ground (3 MtCO2e) (UNDP Ethiopia, 2011). More than 85% of GHG emissions in
Ethiopia come from forestry and agriculture.
3.2.2 Minor Drivers to Climate Change
Minor sources of emissions today are transport, power, industry, and buildings, as described below.
Transport: In transport, approximately 75% of the emissions come from road transport, particularly freight and
construction vehicles, and to a lesser extent private passenger vehicles. Air transport also contributes a
significant share (23% of transport related emissions). Emissions from inland water transport are minimal.
Increase in passenger-km traveled projected based on elasticity to real GDP. Increase in ton-km of cargo
transported based on elasticity to real GDP.
Ethiopia is endowed with vast energy resources particularly hydropower. Energy supply in the country is
composed of three main sub-sectors, namely; biomass, petroleum and electricity. Currently the energy need of
the country is satisfied by wood fuel (77%), dung (7.7%), crop residue (8.7%), Bagasse (0.06%), charcoal
(1.15%), electricity (1%), liquid petroleum gas (LPG) (0.05%), and oil products (4.8%). Most of the energy is
utilized for household purposes. To date the country’s total installed capacity of electricity is about 450 MW
(UNDP Ethiopia, 2011).
Electric power: The electric power sector only accounts for very low emissions as it is largely based on
renewable energy, with hydro power accounting for more than 90% of total power generation capacity,
supplemented by the use of on and off-grid diesel generators administered by the Ethiopian Electric Power
Corporation (EEPCo). Current emissions in the energy sector amount to below 5 Mt CO2 e or a share of 3% of
the country’s total emissions. (The global average for electric power generation’s share of a country’s GHG
emissions is more than 25%). Switch of remaining fossil fuel capacity to 100% clean/renewable generation for
on-grid (UNDP Ethiopia, 2011).
Industry: Given the comparably small share of organized industrial economic activity overall, industry
accounts for only 3% of GHG emissions. At nearly 2 Mt CO2 to the 4 Mt CO e emissions from industry, cement
is the single largest industrial source of emissions, followed by mining (32%), and the textile and leather (17%)
industry. Emissions from steel, other types of engineering, the chemicals industry (incl. fertilizer), pulp and
paper industry and food processing together account for only around 2% of industrial GHG emissions.
Buildings: it contributes around 5 Mt CO2 e or 3% to today’s emissions. Main drivers are emissions related to
solid and liquid waste (3 Mt of CO 2 e) and the use of private off-grid power generators in cities (2 Mt of CO2
e).
4. Climate Change Impacts
Climate change causes wide-ranging effects on the environment, and on socio-economic and related sectors,
including water resources, agriculture and food security, human health, terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity.
Changes in rainfall pattern are also likely to lead to severe water shortages and/or flooding. Rising temperatures
also will cause shifts in crop growing seasons which affects food security and changes in the distribution of
disease vectors putting more people at risk from diseases such as malaria. Temperature increases will potentially
severely increase rates of extinction for many habitats and species (UNFCCC, 2007).
Climate change causes the frequency and severity of weather events. Some indirect effect of climate change
includes, changes in soil moisture, land and water condition, change in frequency of fire and pest infect and the
distribution of diseases. The potential for a system to sustain adverse impact on agriculture is determined by its
capacity to adapt to the changes. Higher temperatures, reduced rainfall and increased rainfall variability reduce
crop productivity that would be affected food security in low income and agriculture-based economies. Thus, the
impact of climate change is detrimental to countries that depend on agriculture as the main livelihood (Edwards-
Jones et al. 2009).
Climate change has the potential to undermine sustainable development, increase poverty, and delay or prevent
the realization of the Millennium Development Goals (IPCC, 2007). Climate change can influence humans
directly, through impacts on health and the risk of extreme events on lives, livelihoods and human settlements,
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and indirectly, through impacts on food security and the viability of natural resource-based economic activity.
The biophysical effects of climate change on agriculture induce changes in production and prices, which play out
through the economic system as farmers and other market participants adjust autonomously, altering crop mix,
input use, production, food demand, food consumption, and trade (ORS, 2004).
Climate change is generally expected to hit developing countries harder than industrialized countries, as the
former are less capable of mitigating or adapting to the changes due to their poverty and high dependence on the
environment for subsistence (UNDP, 2007).
Ethiopia’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is negligible, but it is affected by the adverse
impacts of climate change brought by the carbon-intensive development paths of rich countries over the past
century. According to the country’s First National Communications to the UNFCCC, temperature across the
country could rise by between 0.5 and 3.6°C by 2070. The annual average temperature during 2070-2090 is
projected to be 26.92 °C, up 3.84 °C on the 1960-90 average whilst average daily rainfall will reduce by 3.5% by
the end of the century (Hassan, 2006).
Ethiopia is hit harder than most countries by drought and its devastating consequences. Recurrent droughts
have resulted in loss of life and property as well as the migration of people. Drought frequency is predicted to
increase placing stress on already vulnerable production systems. The mainstay of the Ethiopian economy is
rain-fed agriculture, which is heavily sensitive to climate variability and change (CSA, 2007).
Drought is also severely affecting hydropower generation, Ethiopia’s main source of electricity. Flooding in
turn causes significant damage to settlements and infrastructure, livestock and animal health, and the
waterlogging of productive land undermines agriculture by delaying planting, reducing yields, and
compromising the quality of crops, especially if the rains occur around harvest time (World Bank, 2011).
In addition both droughts and flooding increase the stress on social institutions, and increase the vulnerability
of households, particularly those living close to the poverty line, through loss of assets, impaired health, potential
conflicts and animal disease with potential risk for humans. Climate change affects human and livestock health
directly through morbidity and mortality impacts of temperature extremes, vectors of infectious diseases,
proliferation of non-vector borne infectious diseases, air quality, floods and storms, and indirectly through
impacts on food supply and water resources. Climate change creates a favorable environment for vector-borne
diseases such as malaria and trypanosomiasis that are widespread in the country. Malaria and
animal trypanosomiasis will expand their altitudinal range and it is anticipated that other new human animal and
plant diseases will emerge and increase (World Bank, 2003).
Many species that is already vulnerable. Species with limited climatic ranges and/or with limited geographical
opportunities (e.g. species restricted to Afro alpine ecosystem like Ethiopian Wolf, Walia Ibex and Giant
Lobelia), species with restricted habitat requirements and/or small populations are typically the most vulnerable.
Ethiopia faces the following challenges to managing climate change risks and opportunities (UNDP, 2007).
5. Mitigation to Climate Change
5.1 Mitigation strategies
The Ethiopian Government has already put in place a number of policies, strategies and programs aimed at
enhancing the adaptive capacity and reducing the vulnerability of the country to climate variability and change.
Such programs include the Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), the
Environmental Policy, and the Agriculture and Rural Development Policy and Strategy. The Government have
established a Strategic Investment Framework for sustainable land management (SLM) but the cost and capacity
implications of climate change have yet to be built into this. Ethiopia is signatory to a host of environmental
agreements that require countries to develop specific implementation mechanisms and fulfill obligations
involving reporting, training, public education, and other activities (UNFCCC, 2007). The EPA is the national
focal point for the UNCCD. The governance of the Nile Basin water resources are critical for climate change
vulnerability in the Nile Basin countries. Ethiopia is one of the nine Nile Basin countries and secretariat of the
Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (Deressa et al, 2008).
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National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPA) identified a participatory process and integrated climate
change adaptation activities with national development policies to ensure effective implementation of adaptation
activities. The NAPA process in Ethiopia identified arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas of the country as
being most vulnerable to drought; agriculture was identified as the most vulnerable sector; and in terms of
livelihoods, small-scale rain-fed subsistence farmers and pastoralists are identified as the most at risk (NAPA,
2007).
Carbon trading
Carbon trading is a market mechanism to mitigate climate change. In carbon trading one party pays for another
party in return for greenhouse gas emission reduction or for the right to emit
(Capoor and Ambrosi, 2008). The Kyoto mechanisms allow the countries with Kyoto commitments to meet
their target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way and motivate developing countries to
join global emission reduction (UNFCCC, 2009). Thus carbon trading offers an opportunity to increase climate
equity. Treaties include potential to finance mitigation and adaptation to climate change and enhance sustainable
development.
According to African development form (2010), there are significant new opportunities in the Green Economy
for absorbing carbon from the air, and simultaneously generating green products. Changing agricultural practices
and improving land use is considered to be one of the cost effective ways of reducing atmospheric greenhouse
gases. The restoration of degraded cropland soils can also increase soil carbon-storage and crop yields, while
contributing to the conservation of agricultural biodiversity, including soil biodiversity. There is potential for
global agreements to permit new ‘crops and products’ by tapping into new sources of funding through carbon
trading and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD).
Market-based climate change mitigation instruments involve carbon trading between developed and
developing countries. The most common market-based climate financing includes accessing climate finance for
clean development mechanism and emission reduction. The mechanisms create a new niche market for
developed countries that need to trade carbon to meet their climate change mitigation regulation—such as GHG
emission reduction targets through purchase of REDD credits. It is recognized that the market-based climate
financing mechanisms would be more efficient, involve lower transaction costs, and are not prone to policy and
governance failures (Kant, 2010).
Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) vision and strategy emanated from the Constitution of
Ethiopia and the Environmental Policy of Ethiopia approved in 1994 and 1997 respectively. The CRGE strategy
focuses on four pillars that will support Ethiopia’s developing green economy respectively (Gemechu, 2005):
adoption of agricultural and land use efficiency measures; increased GHG sequestration in forestry, i.e.,
protecting and re-establishing forests for their economic and ecosystem services including carbon stocks;
deployment of renewable and clean power generation and use of appropriate advanced technologies in industry,
transport, and buildings.
In general four initiatives for fast-track implementation have been selected under the CRGE: (i) exploiting
Ethiopia’s vast hydropower potential; (ii) large-scale promotion of advanced rural cooking technologies; (iii)
efficiency improvements to the livestock value chain; and (iv) Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and
Forest Degradation (REDD) The government has also created institutional arrangements for CRGE strategy
implementation. A CRGE facility has been put in place within the Ministry of Finance and Economic
Development. The facility is responsible for resources mobilization and disbursement. The EPA shall develop a
system for monitoring, reporting and verification. The UNDP, as interim trustee, is responsible to manage the
CRGE fund and/ resources. On the other hand, each sector shall have an environmental unit, and are tasked with
preparing their respective strategy for resilience (EPA, 2012)
Determined enough to combat climate change, Ethiopia has duly reacted by ratifying relevant international
conventions and is taking the necessary steps to implement the two categories of responses to climate change,
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mitigation and adaptation. With this respect, Ethiopia has so far (MoFED, 2008) ratified agreements such as the
UNFCCC and its related appliance, the Kyoto Protocol. Existing national policies and sectoral programs targeted
towards environmental rehabilitation possibly addressed the issues of climate change either directly or indirectly.
Among others, the following are notable (MoFED, 2007); conservation Strategy, Environmental policy,
Agriculture and Rural Development Policy and Strategy, Integrated Watershed Management, Water Resources
Management Policy, National Policy on Disaster Prevention and Preparedness and National Policy on
Biodiversity Conservation and Research.
Atmospheric pollution and climate change policies are (NMA, 2001):
To promote a climate monitoring program as the country is highly sensitive to climatic variability;
To recognize that even at an insignificant level of contribution to atmospheric greenhouse gases, a firm
and visible commitment to the principle of containing climate change is essential and to take the appropriate
control measures for a moral position from which to deal with the rest of the world in a struggle to bring about
its containment by those countries which produce large quantities of greenhouse gases;
To recognize that Ethiopia's environmental and long-term economic interests and its energy prospect
coincide with the need to minimize atmospheric inputs of greenhouse gases as it has a large potential for
harnessing hydro-, geothermal and solar energy, none of which produce pollutant gases in significant amounts
and to develop its energy sector accordingly;
To actively participate in protecting the ozone layer since, as the highlands of Ethiopia already have a
thin protective atmosphere and are liable to suffer agricultural losses and adverse health effects from exposure to
ultraviolet rays;
To recognize that the continued use of biomass for energy production makes no net contribution to
atmospheric pollution as long as at least equal amounts of biomass are produced annually to compensate this and
to maximize the standing biomass in the country through a combination of reforestation, agroforestry, the
rehabilitation of degraded areas, a general revegetation of the land and the control of free range grazing in the
highlands and to seek financial support for this from industrialized countries for offsetting their carbon dioxide
emission;
The impacts of climate change and atmospheric pollution include weather variability, loss of pasture land,
droughts, flood and thus food insecurity and other environmental related health problems. Proposed intervention
measures include (MoFED, 2007): developing a federal strategy, standards, and law to improve urban air
quality; developing a national strategy to enhance coping mechanisms regarding the adverse impacts of climate
change; and launching environmentally sound investment and other programs that foster cleaner development
mechanisms, including emissions trading.
PASDEP has outlined six strategic goals towards the realization of the Environmentally Sound Development
Vision of the country (Deressa et al., 2008): ensuring community-led environmental protection and the
sustainable use of environmental resources for gender equity and improved livelihood; rehabilitating affected
ecosystems; enhancing capacity of ecosystems to deliver goods and services, particularly biomass for food, feed
and household energy; removing the adverse impacts of municipal waste preventing environmental pollution;
and ensuring proactively the integration of environmental and ethical dictates especially mainstreaming gender
equity in development.
Participatory watershed planning is the key to understand what is needed to be done at various levels to sustain,
improve and diversify production while developing and managing the natural resource base, promote income
generation opportunities, increase access to basic services (roads, markets, schools, water, and the like.) and
make livelihood systems resilient to shocks (MoARD, 2005). For example, the participatory safety net program
(PSNP) supports 7.7 million beneficiates by providing cash or food transfers, enabling them to reduce asset
depletion and increase their resilience capacity to climate change. In addition to this, a large number of soil
conservation structures, water harvesting structures and social infrastructures were built. As a result, regenerated
the environment, increasing access to water supply for beneficiaries, access to farmers training centers, and
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livelihoods were improved through improved productivity of land and assets. The encouraging results of this
programme need to continue as a tool to counteract climate change as well (MoA, 2010).
Ethiopia has prepared biodiversity conservation to fulfill its global and national commitments to conserve its
rich biodiversity by arresting erosion of biological diversity and ensuring the benefits thereof to present and
future generations. To this effect, necessary measures have been implemented and shall continue so to (IBC,
2005): conserve ecosystem level biodiversity through protected area networks and through sustainable use and
management systems, ensure equitable benefit sharing, and preserve country’s biodiversity in terms of its
domestication of agricultural crops and the high levels of genetic diversity of both crops and livestock. This
intern can strengthen climate change mitigation in the environment.
5.2 Alternative Energy Sources and Utilization
Ethiopia is one of those countries which have a good deal of renewable energy potential in the world.
However, the total energy consumption of the country in 2000 was estimated to be 754 TJ of which biomass
contributed 95.7%, while petroleum and electricity takes 3.4% and 0.79%, respectively. The sectoral
composition of energy was dominated by the household sector, accounting 90% of the total (Getnet et al, 2003).
The other sectors industries, services, transport, and agriculture as a whole account only for the remaining 10%
(NMSA, 2001).
Although the country is known to have the potential to produce substantial amounts of energy
from its various energy sources, as things stand now, most of the energy consumed in the country originates
from wood and biomass. Apart from these environmental problems, there are factors that directly affect the
energy resources utilization in the country. These are (CSA, 2000): inefficient in energy utilization which results
in a high degree of energy resources wastage in the country; lack of capacity to effectively develop the country's
energy resources such as hydropower, solar and other renewable energy sources; the fact that climate change is
causing erratic rainfall, both in amount and distribution and consequent fluctuations in the hydropower energy
supply in the country.
Efforts made to tackle the problems associated with energy resources include (CACC, 2002): a national energy
policy has been issued; even though insignificant compared to the vast potential, some attempts to utilize
renewable energy resources have been made; Some steps to promote charcoal and other bio-mass energy
efficient cooking stoves have been taken; an investment code that encourages the involvement of the private
sector in energy generation has been promulgated; survey, design and construction works are being conducted to
develop the country's enormous hydropower potential; there are ongoing initiatives in the agricultural sector
designed to encourage the participation of rural communities in firewood; in order to enhance energy
development for rural areas, a Rural Energy Development Promotion Centre has been established as an
independent entity at the level of the Federal Government and some Regional States; and a Rural Electrification
Fund has been established.
Though the efforts made to tackle the problems related to energy resources utilization so far are commendable,
there is need to do much more in view the magnitude of the pressures exerted on the environment generally and
forest and other biomass resources particularly.
6. Adaptations to Climate Change
According to the IPCC third Assessment Report, adaptation has the potential to reduce adverse impacts of
climate change and to enhance beneficial impacts, but will incur costs and will not prevent all damages.
Furthermore, it is argued that human and natural systems will, to some extent, adapt autonomously and that
planned adaptation can supplement autonomous adaptation. However, options and incentives are greater for
adaptation of human systems than for adaptation to protect natural systems (IPCC, 2001).
Adapting to climate change will entail adjustments and changes at every level from community to national and
international. Communities must build their resilience, including adopting appropriate technologies while
making the most of traditional knowledge, and diversifying their livelihoods to cope with current and future
climate stress. Local coping strategies and traditional knowledge need to be used in integrated with government
and local interventions. To enable effective adaptation measures, governments as well as non-government
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organizations, must consider integrating climate change in their planning and budgeting in all levels of decision-
making (Mendelsohn, 2000).
Decisions on the type of adaptation are often made by individuals, groups within society, and organizations
and governments on behalf of society. Some adaptation measures may be taken at individual level. Others like
rainwater harvesting and investments, building dams, releasing new cultivars that are more drought resistance
require collective actions. These time societies have inherent capacities to adapt to climate change and have
developed different adaptation and mitigation strategies to combat climate change. They have developed
knowledge, skills, technology, institutional arrangements and strategies that are important foundations for
adapting to long-term climate change. Based on the type of economic activities and social networks societies can
access local coping strategies against shocks. These highly differ among households and communities.
Communities have always adapted to climate variations by making preparations based on their resources and
knowledge accumulated through experience of past weather pattern. The adaptive measures that households use
when faced with climate change could also differ in terms of their ease of implementation, equity effects, lag
between implementation and effect, their cost of implications, compatibility with other programs, and agencies
implementing measures (Admassie, 2008).
Climate adaptation measures will need to address systemic weaknesses and vulnerabilities that have
historically impoverished those communities. Climate change will challenge the implementation of current and
future development plans: adjustments and changes will be required at every level: community, national and
international. A better understanding of the impacts, costs, changes and communities perceptions of climate
change, ongoing adaptation measures, and the decision-making process is important to inform policy makers and
sector institutions aimed at promoting successful adaptation strategies for the country in the next PASDEP
currently under preparation. Ethiopia will need to both mitigate the impacts of climate change, where possible,
and adapt to the situation where it cannot (Yesuf et al, 2008).
As impact will differ regionally, based on the bio-physical and socioeconomic situations within Ethiopia, the
management of impacts will need to be defined for each region based on the analysis of current information and
practices, the scope for variability within these systems and the possibility of alternative farming and livelihoods.
Given the challenges outlined above, delivering an integrated response will require enhanced capacity for
coordinating and leading ‘joined-up’ actions. New technologies, as well as current technologies used in new
ways can support this response, but only if the appropriate enabling institutional and policy environment is in
place to encourage joint working and embrace adaptive learning to take account of ongoing uncertainties or new
opportunities (Tadege, 2007).
Indigenous people all over the world have used different strategies to respond and adapt to climate change,
these include (FAO, 2007): diversified resource base (to minimize the risk due to harvest failure, they grow
many different crops and varieties, and they also hunt, fish, and gather wild food plants); change in crop varieties
and species; change in the timing of activities (crop harvests, wild plant gathering, hunting and fishing); change
of techniques; change of location; changes in resources and/or life style(resorting to wild foods in the case of
emergency situations such as droughts and floods); exchange (obtaining food and other necessities from external
sources through exchange, reciprocity, barter, or markets in times of crises); and resource management
(enhancing scarce and climate-sensitive resources management)
In Ethiopia cases, traditional and contemporary coping mechanisms to climate variability and extreme include
(NAPA, 2007): changes in cropping and planting practices, reduction of consumption levels, collection of wild
foods, use of inter-household transfers and loans, increased petty commodity production, temporary and
permanent migration in search of employment, grain storage, sale of assets such as livestock and agricultural
tools, mortgaging of land, credit from merchants and money lenders, use of early warning system and food
appeal/aid, etc.
As future climatic conditions unfold and farmers learn how to implement adaptive strategies (which in turn
will depend on the form of tenure, incomes, etc.), farmers could make long term adjustments such as changing
crop varieties that are grown as well as where they are grown (i.e. location). Potential options include switching
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to more robust varieties that are better suited to the new environment. In Zimbabwe farmers have switched
successfully to the use of more drought tolerant crop in areas where the frequent recurrence of droughts has
made agriculture production difficult using the traditional crop varieties. In the extreme case, where agriculture
is no longer viable, farmers have converted land use from crop production to game ranching (Abate, 2009).
UNDP Ethiopia supports adaptation and building resilience through the following projects and programs
(UNDP Ethiopia, 2011):
Promoting Autonomous Adaptation at the Community Level in Ethiopia; (LDCF)
Sustainable Development of Protected Area System (SDPA)
Mainstreaming Agro-Biodiversity into the Farming System of Ethiopia
Afar integrated dry lands management
MDGF Environment-enabling pastoralist communities to adapt to climate change and restore rangelands
environment.
7. Conclusion and Recommendations
Ethiopia has contributed very low to the current climate change. However, it has great impact in the country
itself. Climate that was developed using historical data of temperature and precipitation from 1951 to 2005 for
selected stations in Ethiopia showed the year-to-year variation of rainfall for the period. The country during
those periods (1951 to 2005) has experienced both dry and wet years over the last 54 years. These changes in the
physical environment are expected to have an adverse effect on agricultural production, environment, and the
overall livelihood. Particularly Central rift valley (CRV) is environmentally very vulnerable areas to climate
change. Causes/drivers of climate change in the country are divided in to two as major and minor. Deforestation
and forest degradation, land use change, and agriculture are considered as major drivers while transport, power,
industry, and buildings are minor ones. Climate change causes wide-ranging effects on the environment, and on
socio-economic and related sectors, including water resources, agriculture and food security, human health,
terrestrial ecosystems and biodiversity.
The Ethiopian Government has already put in place a number of policies, strategies and programs aimed at
enhancing the adaptive capacity and reducing the vulnerability of the country to climate variability and change.
Such programs include the Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable Development to End Poverty, the
Environmental Policy, and the Agriculture and Rural Development Policy and Strategy, Ethiopia’s Climate-
Resilient Green Economy and Strategic Investment Framework for sustainable land management. The positive
results of integrated watershed management at community level have drawn the attention of multi-donors and the
government to formulate more sustainable land management strategies and it is becoming the best mitigating
measures of climate change. Early warning system, information management, community-based disaster
preparedness, and humanitarian actions are going to be critically essential to substantiate enabling environment
for climate change adaptation and these are becoming under implementation particularly in drought prone and
vulnerable areas of the country.
As future climatic conditions unfold and farmers learn how to implement adaptive strategies (which in turn
will depend on the form of tenure, incomes, etc.), farmers could make long term adjustments such as changing
crop varieties that are grown as well as where they are grown (i.e. location). Potential options include switching
to more robust varieties that are better suited to the new environment. Traditional and contemporary coping
mechanisms to climate variability and extreme should be strengthened.
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