Deterrence and the Death Penalty

Deterrence and the Death PenaltyDeterrence and the Death Penalty

Llad Phillips

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Current News: Death Penalty Current News: Death Penalty

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OutlineOutline The Death PenaltyThe Death Penalty

ArgumentsArguments Philosophical and moral (lexicographic ordering)Philosophical and moral (lexicographic ordering) Practical: Is it a deterrent?Practical: Is it a deterrent?

• Impact on the criminal justice system: Detention (prison Impact on the criminal justice system: Detention (prison building era) dominatesbuilding era) dominates

Operation of the Death PenaltyOperation of the Death Penalty Homicide and ExecutionsHomicide and Executions

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IV. Lecture Four: “Deterrence and the Death Penalty”, Professor Phillips

Ch. 10 (P&V) "Isolating Deterrence Using the Simultaneous Equation System"

References: Gary Becker, "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach" Journal of Political Economy, March/April 1968 (RBR)

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http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-7532034279766935521

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What purpose did the execution serve?What purpose did the execution serve?

Deterrence? Other Saddams? (The Hague)Deterrence? Other Saddams? (The Hague)

Detention? NoDetention? No

Rehabilitation? NoRehabilitation? No

Retribution?Retribution?

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1976SupremeCourtReinstates DeathPenalty

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Economic Conditions and CrimeEconomic Conditions and Crime

California Crime Index Levels Off in the California Crime Index Levels Off in the New MilleniumNew Millenium

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CA Crime Index Per 1000 & CA Misery Index in %, 1952-2007

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

CA Misery Index

CA Crime Index Per 1000

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55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05

HOMICIDE

California Homicide rate per 100,000: 1952-2007

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CaliforniaCalifornia

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CaliforniaCalifornia

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Damages: US Violence, 1993Damages: US Violence, 1993

Offense Loss Rate ReportedOffenses

Damages,Billions, $

Homicide $1,191,000 24,526 $46.8

Rape $87,000 104,806 $9.1

Assault $15,000 1,135,099 $17.0

Total $72.9

Source: National Institute of Justice, Victim Costs and Consequences (1996)

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Increase in CA HomicidesIncrease in CA Homicides 2002 to 2003: at least 10 more homicides2002 to 2003: at least 10 more homicides

@$1,191,000, increased damages of $11.9 @$1,191,000, increased damages of $11.9 million, minimummillion, minimum

2003: 2402 homicides, 6.7/100,0002003: 2402 homicides, 6.7/100,000 @$1,191,000, total damages of $ 2.86 billion@$1,191,000, total damages of $ 2.86 billion

2004: 2392 homicides, 6.5/100,0002004: 2392 homicides, 6.5/100,000 2005: 2503 homicides, 6.8/100,0002005: 2503 homicides, 6.8/100,000

http://caag.state.ca.us/

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Crime Generation

Crime Control

OffenseRate PerCapita

ExpectedCost ofPunishment

Schematic of the Criminal Justice System

Causes ?

(detention,deterrence)

Expenditures

Weak Link

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Ca Crime Index Per 1000 and Misery Index (percent)1952-2005

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

CA Misery Index

CA Crime Index Per 1000

California Prisoners Per Capita, 1952-2005

0.0005

0.0015

0.0025

0.0035

0.0045

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

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Questions About CrimeQuestions About Crime Does the Expected Severity of Punishment Does the Expected Severity of Punishment

Deter Crime?Deter Crime? expected severity = probability of punishment * expected severity = probability of punishment *

severity of punishmentseverity of punishment e.g. in LA County: 0.005*death penaltye.g. in LA County: 0.005*death penalty

Why Do We Keep Building Prisons at Great Why Do We Keep Building Prisons at Great Expense to Warehouse Convicts?Expense to Warehouse Convicts? Doesn’t deterrence work?Doesn’t deterrence work? Do we have to rely on detention?Do we have to rely on detention?

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Controversy About the Death PenaltyControversy About the Death Penalty Death penalty is the most severe sentence.Death penalty is the most severe sentence.

Does it deter crime?Does it deter crime? Opponents of the death penalty say no.Opponents of the death penalty say no.

• Their evidence? Critiques of studies that indicate the death Their evidence? Critiques of studies that indicate the death penalty is a deterrent.penalty is a deterrent.

Why are so few murderers who receive the Why are so few murderers who receive the death sentence executed in California? death sentence executed in California? Death sentence appeases the proponents.Death sentence appeases the proponents. Few executions appeases the opponents.Few executions appeases the opponents.

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France was thelast WesternEuropean Countryto abandon the death Penalty in1977

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Public Opinion: Do You Believe in Capital Punishment?

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year

Roper Poll

Harris Poll

http://www.albany.edu/sourcebook

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Gallup Poll Which is the Better Penalty For Murder?, 1985-2006

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

death penalty

life without parole

http://www.albany.edu/sourcebook/

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Executions in the US 1930-2007Executions in the US 1930-2007

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs

Peak to Peak: About 65 years

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Bureau of Justice StatisticsBureau of Justice Statistics

Peak to Peak: 50 years

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Nikolai Kondratieff (1892-1938)Brought to attention in Joseph Schumpeter’s BusinessCycles (1939)

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2008-2014:Hard Winter

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Policy Impact of Opponents to the Death PenaltyPolicy Impact of Opponents to the Death Penalty As an instrument for crime control, As an instrument for crime control,

deterrence has been a casualty of the deterrence has been a casualty of the argument about the death penalty.argument about the death penalty. The argument: if the death penalty does not The argument: if the death penalty does not

deter murderers, then deterrence must not work deter murderers, then deterrence must not work as a control.as a control.

As a consequence, society relies more and As a consequence, society relies more and more on detention for crime control.more on detention for crime control. Society builds more and more prisons.Society builds more and more prisons.

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Homicide in Los Angeles CountyHomicide in Los Angeles County 1990-1994: 9442 1990-1994: 9442

homicideshomicides Increasing number of Increasing number of

gang murdersgang murders > 40 % of the total> 40 % of the total

Only 1 in 3 murders Only 1 in 3 murders leads to punishmentleads to punishment gang killings are harder gang killings are harder

to solveto solve

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Clearance Ratio, CA 1997-2004Clearance Ratio, CA 1997-2004

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Clearance Ratio, US 1976-2005Clearance Ratio, US 1976-2005

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US Homicides by Circumstance: 76-05US Homicides by Circumstance: 76-05

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9442 homicidesin LA County

46%unsolved

54%solved

87%arrest andprosecution(47%)

dismissedor not guilty

68%guilty (32%)

Branching Diagram

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Branching Diagram, Continued

Guilty (32%)

dismissedor not guilty

Manslaughter

1st & 2nd degree murder (16%)

15 years to life (7.0%)

25 years to life (5.0%)

life without parole (3.5%)

death sentence( 0.5%)

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Stable

Who has benefited the mostfrom the decline in the homicide rate in the nineties?

Who is the victim, family, friendor stranger?

http://caag.state.ca.us/ Homicide in California, 1998

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Death Sentences Commuted:USDeath Sentences Commuted:US

Commuted

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Executions in the United StatesExecutions in the United States

Sentenced Commuted Executed

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Inflow

Sentenced to Death

Prisoners on Death Row

Outflow

SentencesCommuted,Executions

Administration of Capital Sentences in the US

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Prisoners on Death Row: USPrisoners on Death Row: US

Prisoners on Death Row

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The Death Penalty in CaliforniaThe Death Penalty in California

Fourteen persons were executed between Fourteen persons were executed between 1978 and 20091978 and 2009

In January 2009, there were 677 convicts on In January 2009, there were 677 convicts on death rowdeath row

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California Executions: 1893-2004

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

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Execution Witness Area

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Execution Chamber

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GasChamber

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Split Personality BehaviorsJack Hirshleifer: “The Expanding Domainof Economics”

Choice

Work and no violence

Work andbrawl in bars

Economic Manmotive: self-interest

Economic Manmotive: self-interestwith episodes ofantagonism

Assaulter’sIncome

Victim’s Income

Total or Social Income

Motivation for Violence: Antagonism

Assaulters Iso-preference Lines

choice

Work and no violence

Work andbrawl in bars

expect $24,000/yr

Apprehended: lose 1 month in court andjail, $22,000

0.9 Not apprehended$24,000

Expected income: 0.1*$22,000 + 0.9*$24,000 = $23,800

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Questions About Statistical Studies of DeterrenceQuestions About Statistical Studies of Deterrence Do we know enough about the factors that cause Do we know enough about the factors that cause

crime?crime? Can we find variables that will control for variation in Can we find variables that will control for variation in

crime generation?crime generation? We have better measures for the factors that We have better measures for the factors that

control crime than for the factors that cause crime.control crime than for the factors that cause crime. Unknown variation in crime generation may mask the Unknown variation in crime generation may mask the

effects of crime control.effects of crime control.

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Crime Generation

Crime Control

Causes ?

Expenditures

Weak Link

Crime Generation1. variation of offense rate per capita with expected cost of punishment2. Shift in the relationship with a change in causal factors

Offenserate percapita

Expected cost(severity) of punishment

crime generation function

OF = f($CR*SV, SE, MC)

Crime Generation1. variation of offense rate per capita with expected cost of punishment2. Shift in the relationship with a change in causal factors

Offenserate percapita

Expected cost(severity) of punishment

crime generation function

High causal conditions

Low causal conditions

OF = f($CR*SV, SE, MC)

Production Function for the Criminal Justice System (CJS)1. Variation in expected costs of punishment with criminal justice system expenditure per capita

Expected costs ofpunishment

Criminal Justice System expenditures per capita

production function

$CR*SV =g($EX)

per capita expenditures on CJS

offense rate per capita

expected cost of punishment

Crime Generation

Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice

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Expect

Crime Generation

ProductionFunction

square

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Causal conditions account for more variation than control

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Crime Generation

Crime Control

Causes ?

Expenditures

Weak Link

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SummarySummary The death penalty stirs strong emotions.The death penalty stirs strong emotions. To attack the death penalty, opponents have attacked To attack the death penalty, opponents have attacked

the concept of deterrence.the concept of deterrence. Proponents of deterrence have lost the argument to Proponents of deterrence have lost the argument to

proponents of detention.proponents of detention. Weakness: not understanding causes of crime.Weakness: not understanding causes of crime.

Detention is the principal instrument of crime control Detention is the principal instrument of crime control policy today in the U.S. and it costs big buckspolicy today in the U.S. and it costs big bucks

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The EndThe End

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Prisoners Sentenced to Death:USPrisoners Sentenced to Death:US

Sentenced

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Executions in the USExecutions in the US

Executed

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California Homicide Rate Per 100,000 People

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

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California Department of Corrections: http//www.cdc.state.ca.us/

California Executions Since 1978

Name Date Received Date Executed Time on Death Row

Robert Alton Harris 3/14/79 4/21/92 13 years, 1 month

David Edwin Mason 1/27/84 8/24/93 9 years, 7 months

William George Bonin 3/22/82 2/23/96 13 years, 1 month

Keith Daniel Williams 4/13/79 5/3/96 17 years

Thomas M. Thompson 8/23/84 7/14/98 14 years, 1 month

Kelvin Malone 6/22/81 1/13/99 (Missouri) 15 years, 6 months

Jaturun Siripongs 5/2/83 2/9/99 15 years, 9 months

Manuel Babbitt 7/15/82 5/4/99 16 years, 10 months

Darrell Keith Rich 1/23/81 3/15/00 19 years, 1 month

Robert Lee Massie 5/28/79 3/27/01 21 years, 10 months

Stephen Wayne Anderson 7/30/81 1/29/02 20 years, 6 months

Deterrence and the Death Penalty

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