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Deterrence and the Death PenaltyDeterrence and the Death Penalty
Llad Phillips
Llad Phillips 2
VI. Lecture Six: “Deterrence and the Death Penalty”, Professor Phillips
Ch. 10 (P&V) "Isolating Deterrence Using the Simultaneous Equation System"
References: Gary Becker, "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach" Journal of Political Economy, March/April 1968 (RBR)
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Economic Conditions and CrimeEconomic Conditions and Crime
California Crime Index Turns Back Up in California Crime Index Turns Back Up in the New Milleniumthe New Millenium
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Rates for the Misery Index and the California Crime Index, 1952-2001
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Rat
e
Misery Index
CA Crime Index
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California Homicide Rate Per 100,000: 1952-2003
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Rat
e
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Damages: US Violence, 1993Damages: US Violence, 1993
Offense Loss Rate ReportedOffenses
Damages,Billions, $
Homicide $1,191,000 24,526 $46.8
Rape $87,000 104,806 $9.1
Assault $15,000 1,135,099 $17.0
Total $72.9
Source: National Institute of Justice, Victim Costs and Consequences (1996)
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Increase in CA HomicidesIncrease in CA Homicides
2002 to 2003: at least 10 more homicides2002 to 2003: at least 10 more homicides @$1,191,000, increased damages of $11.9 @$1,191,000, increased damages of $11.9
million, minimummillion, minimum 2003: 2402 homicides2003: 2402 homicides
@$1,191,000, total damages of $ 2.86 billion@$1,191,000, total damages of $ 2.86 billion
http://caag.state.ca.us/
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Crime Generation
Crime Control
OffenseRate PerCapita
ExpectedCost ofPunishment
Schematic of the Criminal Justice System
Causes ?
(detention,deterrence)
Expenditures
Weak Link
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Questions About CrimeQuestions About Crime Does the Expected Severity of Punishment Does the Expected Severity of Punishment
Deter Crime?Deter Crime? expected severity = probability of punishment * expected severity = probability of punishment *
severity of punishmentseverity of punishment e.g. in LA County: 0.005*death penaltye.g. in LA County: 0.005*death penalty
Why Do We Keep Building Prisons at Great Why Do We Keep Building Prisons at Great Expense to Warehouse Convicts?Expense to Warehouse Convicts? Doesn’t deterrence work?Doesn’t deterrence work? Do we have to rely on detention?Do we have to rely on detention?
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Controversy About the Death PenaltyControversy About the Death Penalty Death penalty is the most severe sentence.Death penalty is the most severe sentence.
Does it deter crime?Does it deter crime? Opponents of the death penalty say no.Opponents of the death penalty say no.
• Their evidence? Critiques of studies that indicate the death Their evidence? Critiques of studies that indicate the death penalty is a deterrent.penalty is a deterrent.
Why are so few murderers who receive the Why are so few murderers who receive the death sentence executed in California? death sentence executed in California? Death sentence appeases the proponents.Death sentence appeases the proponents. Few executions appeases the opponents.Few executions appeases the opponents.
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Public Opinion: Do You Believe in Capital Punishment?
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Year
Per
cen
t in
Fav
or
Roper Poll
Harris Poll
http://www.albany.edu/sourcebook
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Policy Impact of Opponents to the Death PenaltyPolicy Impact of Opponents to the Death Penalty As an instrument for crime control, As an instrument for crime control,
deterrence has been a casualty of the deterrence has been a casualty of the argument about the death penalty.argument about the death penalty. The argument: if the death penalty does not The argument: if the death penalty does not
deter murderers, then deterrence must not work deter murderers, then deterrence must not work as a control.as a control.
As a consequence, society relies more and As a consequence, society relies more and more on detention for crime control.more on detention for crime control. Society builds more and more prisons.Society builds more and more prisons.
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Homicide in Los Angeles CountyHomicide in Los Angeles County 1990-1994: 9442 1990-1994: 9442
homicideshomicides Increasing number of Increasing number of
gang murdersgang murders > 40 % of the total> 40 % of the total
Only 1 in 3 murders Only 1 in 3 murders leads to punishmentleads to punishment gang killings are harder gang killings are harder
to solveto solve
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9442 homicidesin LA County
46%unsolved
54%solved
13%
87%arrest andprosecution(47%)
32%
other
dismissedor not guilty
68%guilty (32%)
Branching Diagram
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Branching Diagram, Continued
Guilty (32%)
dismissedor not guilty
Manslaughter
1st & 2nd degree murder (16%)
50%
50%
15 years to life (7.0%)
25 years to life (5.0%)
life without parole (3.5%)
death sentence( 0.5%)
3.1%
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California Homicide Rate Per 100,000: 1952-2003
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Rat
e
Who has benefited the mostfrom the decline in the homicide rate in the nineties?
Who is the victim, family, friendor stranger?
http://caag.state.ca.us/ Homicide in California, 1998
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U.S.
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Death Sentences Commuted:USDeath Sentences Commuted:US
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
4001
96
8
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
Year
Nu
mb
er
Commuted
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U.S.
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Executions in the United StatesExecutions in the United States
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
4001
96
8
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
Year
Nu
mb
er
Sentenced Commuted Executed
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Inflow
Sentenced to Death
Stock
Prisoners on Death Row
Outflow
SentencesCommuted,Executions
Administration of Capital Sentences in the US
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Prisoners on Death Row: USPrisoners on Death Row: US
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
30001
96
8
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
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84
19
86
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90
19
92
Year
Nu
mb
er
Prisoners on Death Row
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The Death Penalty in CaliforniaThe Death Penalty in California
Eleven persons were executed between Eleven persons were executed between 1965 and 20051965 and 2005
In January 2005, there were 640 convicts on In January 2005, there were 640 convicts on death rowdeath row
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California Department of Corrections: http//www.cdc.state.ca.us/
California Executions Since 1978
Name Date Received Date Executed Time on Death Row
Robert Alton Harris 3/14/79 4/21/92 13 years, 1 month
David Edwin Mason 1/27/84 8/24/93 9 years, 7 months
William George Bonin 3/22/82 2/23/96 13 years, 1 month
Keith Daniel Williams 4/13/79 5/3/96 17 years
Thomas M. Thompson 8/23/84 7/14/98 14 years, 1 month
Kelvin Malone 6/22/81 1/13/99 (Missouri) 15 years, 6 months
Jaturun Siripongs 5/2/83 2/9/99 15 years, 9 months
Manuel Babbitt 7/15/82 5/4/99 16 years, 10 months
Darrell Keith Rich 1/23/81 3/15/00 19 years, 1 month
Robert Lee Massie 5/28/79 3/27/01 21 years, 10 months
Stephen Wayne Anderson 7/30/81 1/29/02 20 years, 6 months
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California Executions: 1893-2004
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Nu
mb
er
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Execution Witness Area
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Execution Chamber
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GasChamber
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Split Personality BehaviorsJack Hirshleifer: “The Expanding Domainof Economics”
Choice
Work and no violence
Work andbrawl in bars
Economic Manmotive: self-interest
Economic Manmotive: self-interestwith episodes ofantagonism
Assaulter’sIncome
Victim’s Income
Total or Social Income
Motivation for Violence: Antagonism
Assaulters Iso-preference Lines
High
Low
choice
Work and no violence
Work andbrawl in bars
expect $24,000/yr
Apprehended: lose 1 month in court andjail, $22,000
0.1
0.9 Not apprehended$24,000
Expected income: 0.1*$22,000 + 0.9*$24,000 = $23,800
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Questions About Statistical Studies of DeterrenceQuestions About Statistical Studies of Deterrence Do we know enough about the factors that cause Do we know enough about the factors that cause
crime?crime? Can we find variables that will control for variation in Can we find variables that will control for variation in
crime generation?crime generation? We have better measures for the factors that We have better measures for the factors that
control crime than for the factors that cause crime.control crime than for the factors that cause crime. Unknown variation in crime generation may mask the Unknown variation in crime generation may mask the
effects of crime control.effects of crime control.
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Crime Generation
Crime Control
OffenseRate PerCapita
ExpectedCost ofPunishment
Schematic of the Criminal Justice System
Causes ?
(detention,deterrence)
Expenditures
Weak Link
Crime Generation1. variation of offense rate per capita with expected cost of punishment2. Shift in the relationship with a change in causal factors
Offenserate percapita
Expected cost(severity) of punishment
crime generation function
Crime Generation1. variation of offense rate per capita with expected cost of punishment2. Shift in the relationship with a change in causal factors
Offenserate percapita
Expected cost(severity) of punishment
crime generation function
High causal conditions
Low causal conditions
Production Function for the Criminal Justice System (CJS)1. Variation in expected costs of punishment with criminal justice system expenditure per capita
Expected costs ofpunishment
Criminal Justice System expenditures per capita
production function
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
450
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
4501
1
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
4501
1
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
4501
1
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
4501
1
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
4501
1
2
2
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
4501
1
2
2
3
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
1
2
3
Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
4501
1
2
2
3
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SummarySummary
The death penalty stirs strong emotions.The death penalty stirs strong emotions. To attack the death penalty, opponents have To attack the death penalty, opponents have
attacked the concept of deterrence.attacked the concept of deterrence. Proponents of deterrence have lost the argument Proponents of deterrence have lost the argument
to proponents of detention.to proponents of detention. Weakness: not understanding causes of crime.Weakness: not understanding causes of crime.
Detention is the principal instrument of crime Detention is the principal instrument of crime control policy today in the US. control policy today in the US.
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Prisoners Sentenced to Death:USPrisoners Sentenced to Death:US
0
50
100
150
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250
300
350
19
68
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70
19
72
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19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
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19
92
Year
Nu
mb
er
Sentenced
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Executions in the USExecutions in the US
0
5
10
15
20
25
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40
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
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19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
Year
Nu
mb
er
Executed
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California Homicide Rate Per 100,000 People
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Rat
e
