Baseline emission projections and scope for further reductions in Europe up to 2020 Results from the...

Baseline emission projections

and scope for further reductions

in Europe up to 2020

Results from the CAFE analysis

M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes,

Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, W. Winiwarter, W. Schöpp

Approach for baseline emission projections

• Match RAINS estimates with nationally reported emission inventories for 2000

• Use projections on emission generating activities (energy, transport, agriculture) – EU-wide scenarios and national projections

• Extrapolate penetration rates of control measures up to 2020– Taking account of international and national legislation

eden UK

RAINS emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000

National inventory RAINS estimate

RAINS PM emission estimates vs. national inventories, 2000

eden UK

MS PM2.5

National inventory RAINS estimate

Economic drivers for emission projections

Projections of economic activitiesused for the CAFE baseline scenarios

Energy

• Revised PRIMES projection for all 25 EU countries, with climate measures (carbon price 12-20 €/t CO2)

– Including national comments received after April

• DG-TREN Energy Outlook to 2030 (PRIMES calculations for all 25 EU countries, without further climate measures)

• National projections (10 countries) - with climate measures?

Agriculture

• DG-AGRI projection for all 25 EU countries, pre-CAP reform

• National projections (10 countries)

Economic driversassumed for the PRIMES energy projections

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use Passenger kmFreight ton-km Cattle lifestock Sea transport

Emission projections

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use

Land-based emissions CAFE “With climate measures” baseline, EU-25

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx VOC

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2 SO2 NOx VOC PM2.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

GDP Primary energy use CO2SO2 NOx VOCNH3 PM2.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Range of SO2 emission projections[kt]

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

----- EU-15 ----- New Member States ---- Sea regions

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Range of NOx emission projections[kt]

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

----- EU-15 ----- New Member States ---- Sea regions

The scope for further emission reductions through technical measures

Long-term trends of EU-25 emissions “With climate measures” projection, relative to year 2000 [= 100%]

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

SO2 NOx VOC NH3 PM2.5

Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFR) General assumptions

• Full application of measures included in RAINS database (following IPPC BREF notes)

• No premature scrapping and no retrofitting beyond current legislation

• Maximum reductions also applied in non-EU countries and sea regions

Scope for further technical emission reductions CAFE “with climate measures” baseline, EU-25

2000 CLE-2020 MTFR-2020

Costs of current legislation and MTFR2020

Current legislation MTFR

Billion Euros/year

Road sources SO2 NOx NH3 VOC PM

Scope for further non-technical emission reductions“Illustrative climate” vs. “with climate measures” scenario, EU-25

2000CLE-2020 "with climate measures"CLE 2020 "Illustrative climate"MTFR-2020 "with climate measures"MTFR 2020 "Illustrative climate"

Projected PM emissions in Europe2000-2020

2000 CLE2020

MTFR2020

2000 CLE2020

MTFR2020

2000 CLE2020

MTFR2020

kilotons/year

PM2.5 PM coarse

EU-15 EU-10 Non-EU

Impact assessment

• All calculations for 2020

• All impact assessments for 1997 meteorology

RAINS impact assessmentSeven endpoints

• Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM

• Premature deaths attributable to ozone

• Vegetation damage from ozone (AOT40)

• Excess of critical loads for acidification for forest soils

• Excess of critical loads for acidification for semi-natural ecosystems

• Excess of critical loads for acidification for lakes

• Excess of critical loads for eutrophication

More endpoints evaluated in CAFE Cost-Benefit Analysis

Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]

2000 2020 2020

Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Calculations for 1997 meteorology Provisional estimates with generic assumption on urban increment of PM

Premature deaths attributable to ozone[cases per year]

eden UK

2000 CLE 2020 MFR 2020

Provisional estimates based on grid average ozone concentrations, 1997 meteorology

Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrationsAOT40 [ppm.hours]

Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Calculations for 1997 meteorology

2000 2020 2020

Acid deposition to forests

Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Calculation for 1997 meteorology

2000 2020 2020

Acid deposition to forests% of forest area with acid deposition above CL

eden UK

2000 CLE MFR

Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas

Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems with acid deposition above critical loads using ecosystem-specific deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology

2000 2020 2020

Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas [% of ecosystems area]

France Germany Ireland Netherlands UK Total

2000 CLE 2020 MFR 2020

Acid deposition to freshwater bodies

Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition.

Calculation for 1997 meteorology

2000 2020 2020

Acid deposition to freshwater bodies Percentage of catchments area with acid deposition above CL

Finland Sweden UK

2000 CLE MFR

Excess of critical loads for eutrophication

Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads using grid-average deposition. Calculation for 1997 meteorology

2000 2020 2020

Excess of critical loads for eutrophication Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above CL

eden UK

2020 CEL 2020 MFR 2020

Conclusions

• Emissions in the EU-25 will continue to decline in the future with progressing implementation of current legislation (except ammonia).

• However, air quality problems will remain.

• There is scope for further emission reductions:

– Starting from the “with climate measures” PRIMES projection, relatively little AQ improvements from more aggressive climate policies

– Significant scope from further technical measures beyond current legislation

• Different regions in Europe experience different environmental problems.

• No consultations with non-EU countries up to now.

Baseline emission projections and scope for further reductions in Europe up to 2020 Results from the...

Documents

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IMPLANT PROSTHETICS - Amann Girrbach · Amann Girrbach North America, LP Charlotte, NC, U.S.A. Fon +1 704 837 1404 america@amanngirrbach.com BRASIL Amann Girrbach Brasil LTDA Curitiba,