Weather Flying and the iPad

John ZimmermanSporty’s Pilot Shop

Scott DennstaedtForeFlight

Weather Flying and the iPadPre-flight and in-flight tips

John Zimmerman

• Active GA Pilot Comm/Multi/Inst/Heli

• Vice President Sporty’s Pilot Shop

• Publisher iPad Pilot News

Weather Flying and the iPad

Scott Dennstaedt

• Active GA Pilot Flight Instructor

• Weather Scientist ForeFlight

• Former Meteorologist National Weather Service


•Medium to long range weather planning

•Using Model Output Statistics (MOS)

•ADS-B weather 101

• In-flight ADS-B weather tips

•Real world scenarios

presentation overviewWeather Flying and the iPad

Medium- to long-range weather planning

Weather Planning

• Practically speaking, alwaysoccurs shortly before the proposed flight

• Is that always true?

Go or stay decision

Weather Planning

• What about planning the return trip?

• This may often influence our decision

• Tuesday looks great, but the return trip on Friday is questionable

• We don’t want to engender “get-there-it is”

Decision time

Weather Planning

• Stack the deck in our favor

• Fly on the best weather days

• Avoid bad weather days

• Easier said than done!

You know the drill…

Weather Planning

• Leverage the medium- to long-range forecasts against our busy schedule

• Pilots are weak at this:

• Not part of their primary training

• Pilots don’t know what to look for

• How do we get specifics like ceiling, vis, icing, turbulence, etc. for the longer range?

How do we do this?

Weather Planning

• Medium- to long-range forecasts

• 2 or more days

• Short-range forecasts

• 6 hours to 2 days

• NOWcast

• Less than 6 hours

Broad-brush definitions

Weather Planning

• Need wiggle room in the schedule

• A go or stay decision is often more challenging when you have little or no flexibility

• So, how can you gain more utility from your aircraft without compromising safety?

• Learn how to read the long-range crystal ball

Time management

Weather Planning

• Quantifying uncertainty

• Forecasters quantify their uncertainty through probabilistic forecasts

Probabilistic Forecasts

2 hour Precipitation Potential

Weather Planning

• Precipitation areas

• “Hotspots” for concern

• IFR conditions, turbulence, icing, wind and convection

• Can be harmless

• Adverse weather in precipitation-free areas

What to look for

6 hour QPF

Weather Planning

• Weather patterns and signatures

• Upper level troughs, surface highs, mountain waves

What to look for

Surface Analysis500 mb

Weather Planning

• Surface forecast out to 7 days

• Look for large high pressure areas

• Back side of high pressure is favorable for radiation fog in theearly morning hours

Surface charts

Weather Planning

• Low pressure areas

• Wrap-around moisture aroundthe Great Lakes

• Behind cold front passage

• Stratocumulus clouds

• Mountain wave

Surface charts

Stratocumulus clouds

Weather Planning

• 6 hour Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

• Issued by the WPC

• Quantity of precipitation over a6 hour period out to 3 days

QPF

6 hour QPF

Weather Planning

• 12 hour Probability of Precipitation

• Also issued by the WPC

• Valid time ends at the validtime on the chart

12 hour PoP

12 hour PoP

Weather Planning

• 500 mb chart (~18,000 ft)

• Troughs and ridges

• Trough axis (red)

• Ridge axis (blue)

• Disturbed weather downwindof trough axis

• Fair weather upwind of trough axis

Constant Pressure Charts

Using Model Output Statistics

Model Output Statistics

• Available in ForeFlight App Store release

• Tap on any airport marker on Map view

• Tap Forecast

• Tap MOS

Finding MOS


• From Airports view

• Tap Weather

• Tap MOS

Finding MOS


• Site-specific automated forecast

• For an airport or reporting station

• Combines NOAA model forecast withgeo-climatic data

• TAF-like forecast out to 3 days for over2,100 stations

• Civilian and military

What is MOS?


• Provides aviation-specific guidance

• Ceiling, sky cover, visibility, wind speedand direction, precipitation type andthunderstorms

• ForeFlight created a proprietary algorithmto improve on the NOAA version of MOS

What is MOS?


• Updated hourly for most stations

• About 300 stations are updated every six hours

• New forecast available about 30 minutes past the hour

MOS updates


• Only available in the US and territories

• Is NOT an area or zone forecast

• Does not predict temporary conditions

• Won’t forecast non-convective LLWS or NSW

• Can’t predict variable winds

• Can’t distinguish between rain and drizzle

• Can’t distinguish between FZRA, FZDZ and PL

• Just says “freezing precip”

• Never amended

MOS limitations

In-flight weather with ADS-B

Stratus

• Subscription-free ADS-B weather

• Built-in WAAS GPS

• Dual band ADS-B traffic

• Built-in AHRS for backup attitude

• Built-in 8-hour battery

• No wires or antennas (WiFi)

• $899, no subscriptions

ADS-B coverageADS-B In – how does it work?

FAA estimateat 1500 ft.

ADS-B coverageADS-B In – how does it work?

FAA estimateat 5000 ft.

ADS-B weather productsADS-B In – how does it work?

Factoid:

Four types of ADS-B ground stations, arranged in this

pattern.

Station Type Weather Products and Range

Surface

(Only at select airports)

500 NM winds and temperature aloft, 100 NM METAR, TAF, SIGMET, NOTAM, 150 NM Regional NEXRAD

Low altitude

(67% of airborne stations)

500 NM winds and temperature aloft250 NM METARs, TAFs, AIRMET, SIGMET, PIREP, SUA150 NM regional NEXRAD100 NM NOTAM (no CONUS NEXRAD)

Medium altitude


Entire CONUS NEXRAD,750 NM winds and temperatures aloft,375 NM METARs, TAFs, AIRMET, SIGMET, PIREP, SUA, 200 NM regional NEXRAD100 NM NOTAM

High altitude


Entire CONUS NEXRAD,1000 NM winds and temperature aloft,all 158 CONUS Class B/C airport METAR/TAF500 NM AIRMET, SIGMET, PIREP, SUA250 NM regional NEXRAD100 NM NOTAM

ADS-B weather timingADS-B In – how does it work?Product Range * Transmission Interval

CONUS NEXRAD composite reflectivity (low resolution)

Contiguous US 15 minutes

Regional NEXRAD composite reflectivity (medium resolution)

150 to 250 nm 2.5 minutes (5 minute update)

AIRMETs / SIGMETs 100 to 500 nm 5 minutesMETARs 100 to 500 nm, all class B and C

airports5 minutes

NOTAM(D), FDC NOTAM, TFRs

100 nm 5 minutes

PIREPS 250 to 500 nm 10 minutesSpecial use airspace 500 nm 10 minutesTAFs 100 to 500 nm, all class B and C

airports10 minutes

Winds and Temps aloft 500 to 1000 nm 10 minutesSportys.com/Stratus

ADS-B vs. XM WeatherADS-B In – how does it work?Data ADS-B XM

METARS Small airports within 250 – 500 nm and all class B and C airports

Nationwide

TAFS Within 250-500 nm NationwideWinds / Temps Aloft Within 500-1,000 nm NationwidePIREPS Within 250-500 nm NationwideRadar Low-resolution CONUS (lower 48)

Medium-resolution regional within 250 nm

High-resolution nationwide

AIRMETS / SIGMETS Within 250-500 nm NationwideCoverage US, Puerto Rico, and Guam US and CanadaCloud satellite image None YesNOTAMs Within 100 nm NoneTFRs Within 100 nm NationwideSpecial use airspace status

Within 250-500 nm None

Cost Free (your tax dollars at work) $35-$55 monthly subscription fee

ADS-B vs. XM WeatherADS-B In – how does it work?

XM ADS-B National ADS-B Regional

ADS-B In Action

Turn on weather with map layersForeFlight and Stratus

Use different chart layersForeFlight and Stratus

METARs and TAFsForeFlight and Stratus

METARs and TAFsForeFlight and Stratus

TFRsForeFlight and Stratus

AIRMETs and SIGMETsForeFlight and Stratus

Pilot ReportsForeFlight and Stratus

Winds AloftForeFlight and Stratus

NOTAMsForeFlight and Stratus

Tips for Flying with ADS-B

Tips and Tricks

1. Turn ADS-B receiver on

2. Go to Settings app on iPad,connect via WiFi

3. Open ForeFlight

4. Turn on weather overlays

Connecting to your iPad

Tips and Tricks

• Take some time to find the right spot – in your airplane

• Line of sight for ADS-B (ground based)

• View of the sky for GPS (satellite based)

• Keep it steady for AHRS (if applicable)

• Direct sunlight?

Location, location, location!

Tips and Tricks

• Make it a habit to check ADS-B status

• Battery life

• Age of weather products

• GPS reception

• LED dimming

Checking status

Tips and TricksShow ADS-B ground stations

Tips and TricksMeasure tool

Tips and TricksRubber band flight planning

Tips and TricksRemember the delay

Tips and TricksUse your eyeballs!!!

Scenarios

Scenario 1What you see is what you get, part 1

• Watching a line develop from afar

• Decided to go north

• “Keep an eye on it.”


• Radar still looks clear around the north side of this line

• Keep the speed up


• There’s a huge hole there

• Right????


• Wrong!

• Eyes always get a veto over datalink weather.


• Must be some build-ups


• Wrong!

• Anomalous Propagation

Scenario 3Animate the radar

• Phew – the storms aremoving out just in time.

• Lines always move fromwest to east, right?

Scenario 3Animate the radar

• Wrong!

• Storms were saggingsouth, not movingeast as expected

• Animate radar to seereal trends.

Scenario 4“Unable”

• ATC: “I need to vector you southeast of the ILS for traffic.”

• Me: “Unable due to weather.”

• Information in context:

• Radar

• Approach chart

• Airplane position

• Route

Scenario 5Deviate 100 miles in advance

• Don’t fly up to the weather,then deviate 10 degrees here,20 degrees there

• Change your flight plan andmiss it all

• ATC likes this

John [email protected]

Scott [email protected]


Technology

Weather Flying and the iPad