The Case for Space

The commercial, societal and macro-economic case for satellite spectrum

Richard PeckhamUKspace

Global Space market 2012 - US$ 305 Billion

• Strong growth of 8% per annum average over last decade

• Same pace predicted for next decade as new applications come on stream

Of which:$89B DTH TV broadcast$21B Satellite communications

Of which:$89B DTH TV broadcast$21B Satellite communications

Of which:$101B Ground stations & Equipment$5B Satellite manufacturing

Of which:$101B Ground stations & Equipment$5B Satellite manufacturing

UK Industry Momentum

Source: “Size & Health of the UK Space Industry 2011”

UK Space Agency

Joint Industry / Government “Innovation & Growth Strategy” ambition of £40bn by 2030

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030

Year (2010 - 2030)

Turn

over

£m

ns (2

009

pric

es)

Sat Telecoms

Earth Observation & Services

Navigation & Services

Space Transportation

Space Science

Other Services

Sat Broadcasting

On track 2011£9.1bn

• Satellite telecommunications• Earth Observations and climate services• Position & timing applications & products

• Satellite broadcasting continues as the largest sector

• Security applications

2013 Space Growth Action PlanMarket analysis

Space Plane technologiesIndoor satellite navigationUltra low-cost platformsHigh resolution remote sensing from GEOLarge integrated constellations in LEOMiniaturised antennas for consumer/m2m devicesFractionated satellitesHigh altitude atmospheric platforms (HAP/HALE)In-orbit power generation & transmission

Game changing technologies& infrastructure

Game changingservices

e-Connectivity

More efficient publicsector services

Secur

ity, S

afet

y &

Resili

ence

Climate & EnvironmentalServices

Maritime geospatial services

Secure satellite communications

Galileo PRS

Polar infrastructure for shipping & exploration

Disaster & emergency response

Space robustness services

Maritime surveillanceMaritime environment monitoring

Removing space debrisSpace weatherSpace situational awareness

Multi-modal transport management

Smart cities/urban services for local govt.

Energy infrastructure services

Space tourism and small payload launchSpace planes

Low-cost LEO launch vehiclesLow cost access to space

Persistent surveillance

Power from space IGSMarkets

Insurance & finance

Agriculture & food security

Environmental services

Weather forecasting

Climate applicationsCarbon monitoring & modelling

Environmental policy

Direct to home TV

Fixed satellite broadband

e4: broadband to ships

e3: broadband to aircraft

Ubiquitous m2m

Location based services [ gaming/synthetic environments

Managing unmanned vehicles (RPVs) and hosted payloads

Seamless personal communications

Energy use monitoring & managementtransport

Backhaul (mobile, fixed, broadcast)Telemedicine & assisted living

Road transportAir traffic

Rail transport

The Space Value Chain (supply-side)

1.8

1.5

7

30

55

TELECOMMUNICATIONS EARTH OBSERVATION NAVIGATION

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.5

1.5

4.82

Satellite Manufacturing 1

<20 companies

Launch service provision 1

<10 companies

Lease or saleof satellite capacity

User ground equipments and terminals

Satellite based servicesLarge number of

companies, some global

1. Market values at space launch date 2. With meteorological-related funding (not only satellite)

7

21

<50 companies, highly concentrated

Many companies incl. consumer electronics leaders

<10 companies, highly concentrated

Few companies, often “space primes”

No commercial companies

Few companies, usually electronics and aerospace contractors

Values € bn 2007Source Euroconsult

TV and MediaLive from anywhere, direct to homeor distribution to terrestrial transmitter

GroundStations

Studio

Live sports events / outside

broadcast

Live news report from “front line”

IntelsatInmarsat

Hotbird

YOUR HOME

Satellite Position & TimePNT is now embedded in thousands of applications from mobile phones and power distribution to prisoner tagging and dementia patient tracking

GALILEO (MEO)

Global Mobile CommunicationsSatellite phones mean you can always be in contact in the middle of the desert, the ocean or the mountains

INMARSAT 4

IRIDIUM

Satellite BroadbandDirect to home, business or local hub, broadband satellites can now connect you anywhere, anytime. Millions of people in developing countries rely on satellite communications for education and medical treatment

HYLAS 1

Ka-SAT

Weather ForecastingSatellites now provide THE most important source of data for producing our weather forecasts:Wind speeds, air and surface temperatures, cloud cover, moisture content…..

3.1

15.3

13.2

9.9

5.9

7.9

20.4

24.3

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Relative Observation Impact[%]

Ob

serv

ati

on

Typ

es

Relative Contribution of Observations to NWP forecast

METOP

NOAA

OTHER LEO

GEO

AIRCRAFT

SONDE

SFC LAND

SFC SEA

Source UK Met OfficeSource UK Met Office

Impact of Satellites on Weather Forecasting

The socio-economic benefit of the Public Weather Service is estimated at ~£600M p.a.

© Crown copyright Met Office

Operations

Ground stations

Skynet 4 Skynet 5

AIRFORCE

ARMYForward HQ

ARMY

NAVY

Military CommunicationsKeeping our armed forcesconnected wherever they are

Security from Space - Food and water security - Crop monitoring, crop type detection - Natural resource prospecting - Maritime security, boarder protection

Radar Satellite

Optical Satellite

Climate Change - Monitoring - Adaption - Mitigation

High accuracy Atlantic sea surface temperature

Oct 2008 Antarctic ozone hole

Nitrogen dioxide pollution

Protection of forests against illegal logging

Sea ice thickness

Natural DisastersSpace helping to assess the damage and manage the response

Pakistan earthquakePakistan earthquakeGreek bush firesGreek bush fires

Indian Ocean tsunami before/afterIndian Ocean tsunami before/after

Tewkesbury floodsTewkesbury floods

Darfur refugee campDarfur refugee camp

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Space value chain – societal and macro economic

1.8

1.5

7

30

55

TELECOMMUNICATIONS EARTH OBSERVATION NAVIGATION

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.5

1.5

4.82

Satellite Manufacturing 1

<20 companies

Launch service provision 1

<10 companies

Lease or saleof satellite capacity

User ground equipments and terminals

Satellite based servicesLarge number of

companies, some global

1. Market values at space launch date 2. With meteorological-related funding (not only satellite)

7

21

<50 companies, highly concentrated

Many companies incl. consumer electronics leaders

<10 companies, highly concentrated

Few companies, often “space primes”

No commercial companies

Few companies, usually electronics and aerospace contractors

Values € bn 2007Source Euroconsult

User and societal benefits, both qualitative and

quantitative

Very large but hard to quantify as applications are so diverse

OECD Socio-economic impact assessment“The Space Economy at a Glance” – OECD 2011•Presents a methodology for assessment•Confirms the diversity of applications makes it near impossible•Proposes a number of case studies and is continuing evaluation of some

• Precision agriculture• Climate change• Fisheries• Transport• Education• Weather forecasting

•All can be shown to be multi £billions

New commercial activities (new

products and services)

New commercial activities (new

products and services)

Productivity/efficiency gains in diverse

economic sectors

Productivity/efficiency gains in diverse

economic sectors

National/regional economic growthNational/regional economic growth

Cost avoidanceCost avoidance

- Indirect industrial effects- New mass market products

& services- New products outside the

space sector

- E.g. precision farming, fisheries and transport

- Indirect impact on the economy derived from the enduring presence of the space industry

- E.g. costs avoided and lives saved thanks to flood prediction

Enduring Impacts

Thank you