18

Storm geo beredskap_hilde

Embed Size (px)

DESCRIPTION

StormGeo: Control in a changing enviromentStorm offshore Forecasts.

Citation preview

Page 1: Storm geo beredskap_hilde
Page 2: Storm geo beredskap_hilde

Offshore experience

Storm offshore Forecasts

North Sea- Manually checked and updated 2-4 times daily- Based on ECMWF/GFS and inhouse WRF/SWAN modelling

Norwegain Sea- Statoil, Shell, BP, ExxonMobil, …

Barents Sea- Snøhvit, Statoil

Adriatic Sea- ExxonMobil

South Atlantic Ocean- Brazil, Peregrino, Statoil

Page 3: Storm geo beredskap_hilde

OBSERVATIONS

WEATHER-

MODEL

PHYSICSMATHEMATICSDYNAMICS++ FORECAST

Page 4: Storm geo beredskap_hilde
Page 5: Storm geo beredskap_hilde
Page 6: Storm geo beredskap_hilde
Page 7: Storm geo beredskap_hilde

Offshore web portal 24/7

Page 8: Storm geo beredskap_hilde
Page 9: Storm geo beredskap_hilde

ECMWF products – global 0.125 deg (16km) resolution

Documented high skill

Page 10: Storm geo beredskap_hilde

Complex systems - complex modellingStormDrift

Page 11: Storm geo beredskap_hilde
Page 12: Storm geo beredskap_hilde
Page 13: Storm geo beredskap_hilde
Page 14: Storm geo beredskap_hilde

Wind and waves - Operational: ECMWF (10-25 km) and WRF (1-9 km).

Ocean current - Princeton Ocean Model (MI-POM) - Operational: 1.5 km (blue)/4 km (green), hourly fields.

.

Wind and waves - Operational: ECMWF (10-25 km) and WRF (1-9 km).

Ocean current - Princeton Ocean Model (MI-POM) - Operational: 1.5 km (blue)/4 km (green), hourly fields.

.

StormDrift

Page 15: Storm geo beredskap_hilde

StormDrift

2 km model resolution3-6 vertical layersEularian code

2 km model resolution3-6 vertical layersEularian code

1. Advection with surface current2. Dispersion by molecular diffusion/surface effects3. Evaporation4. Chemical dissolution5. Aggregation6. Break-up and dispersion by waves7. Sedimentation

1. Advection with surface current2. Dispersion by molecular diffusion/surface effects3. Evaporation4. Chemical dissolution5. Aggregation6. Break-up and dispersion by waves7. Sedimentation

Page 16: Storm geo beredskap_hilde

Electronic Numerical Integrator And Computer: 40 FLOPS

1946

Roadrunner: 1.026 peta FLOPS

~1000 trillion FLOPS

2008

First real time NWP September 1954

Modelling and computer power

Operasjonell mode3 dager/minutt

Operasjonell mode3 dager/minutt

StormDrift

Page 17: Storm geo beredskap_hilde

Offshore web portal 24/7

Page 18: Storm geo beredskap_hilde