Upload
stefano-bertolo
View
785
Download
3
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Things that exist inside the blockchain
• address myAddress= ‘0x4aed8f842020e7596ad9ac7f6f0b512864c48db2'
• myAddress.balance
• now
Prediction Markets
• Contract C pays €100 if, by 31 December 2016 the Government of the UK will have invoked Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty and €0 otherwise
• how much would you pay for contract C?
• current price of contract is the collective expectation that event will occur
Intent of predictions
• Contract C pays €100 if, by 31 December 2016 Jane will be married
• Jane who?
Augur’s solution
• Investors in the market own REP tokens
• REP token holders are asked to report on outcome (and punished if they don’t)
• market is resolved based on majority of REP token holder reports
• the ‘real’/intended Jane is a Schelling Point
A few conjectures for the future
• Payoff matrices will often be asymmetric
• player with the strongest prior investment (highest payoff) will drive convergence https://github.com/sclopit/essays/blob/master/ontopreds.md
• A Linked Data Scalability Challenge: Concept Reuse Leads to Semantic Decay http://arxiv.org/abs/1603.01722
• Sound emission and reception tuning in three cicada species sharing the same habitat http://scitation.aip.org/content/asa/journal/jasa/127/3/10.1121/1.3291036