Climate Variability and Changeimportance for IWRM planning processimportance for IWRM planning process

Lučka Kajfež BogatajUniversity of Ljubljana, Slovenia

former IPCC WG2 vicechair

Fossil Fuel & Cement CO2 Emissions

Growth rate

2000-2010

3.1% per year

Growth rate

2010

5.9% yr

Growth rate

Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Marland et al. 2009

Growth rate

1990-1999

1% per year

Growth rate

2009

-1.3% per year

Uncertainty (6-10%)

+-

Key QuestionsIncreased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA)

Energy

WaterFood

Climate Change

1. Can 9 billion people be fed equitably, healthily and sustainably?

2. Can we cope with the future demands on water?

3. Can we provide enough WaterIncreased demand

30% by 2030

(IFPRI)

FoodIncreased demand

50% by 2030

(FAO)

3. Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population coming out of poverty?

4. Can we mitigate and adapt to climate change?

5. Can we do all this in the context of redressing the decline in biodiversity and preserving ecosystems?

Biodiversity

The Perfect Storm?(Beddington, 2009)

Jun-Jul-Aug and Dec-Jan-Feb

temperature anomalies (°C) Jun-Jul-Aug Dec-Jan-Feb

Hansen, 2011

Summer temperature in Europe

Barriopedro et al., 2011

EEA www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/

3 classes of water problems in SEE

• too little water • too much water• water pollution • water pollution

Can (and will) be exacerbated by climate change

Main drought events in Europe, 2000–2009

Recurrence of flood events in Europe

(EEA, 2011)

Europe: Geographic ChangesEurope: Geographic Changes

+10

-1

+50%

-50%

20802080--20992099 Minus Minus 19801980--19991999 (A1B)(A1B)

Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to

Advance Climate Change Adaptation (IPCC , 2011)

Decrease in return period implies more frequent extreme temperature events

The time between “20-year” (unusually) warm days will decrease

IPCC SREX, 2011 : on drougts

Summary for Policymakers

• There is medium confidence that droughts will

intensify in the 21st century in some seasons and

areas, due to reduced precipitation and/or

increased evapotranspiration. increased evapotranspiration.

• This applies to regions including southern

Europe and the Mediterranean region, central

Europe, central North America, Central America

and Mexico, NE Brazil, and S Africa.

River flowRiver flow ––projected trendprojected trend

Relative change in seasonal and annual runoff between 1961-1990 compared to 2071-2100 (SRES A2). Dankers and Feyen, 2008.

Projected rProjected river flow droughtsiver flow droughts

Relative change in mean annual and summer minimum 7-day river flowbetween scenario (2071-2100, SRES A2) and control period (1961-1990)

Feyen and Dankers, 2008.

River floodsRiver floods ––projected trendprojected trendRelative change in 100-year return level (Gumbel fit) of river discharge between scenario (2071-2100, SRES A2) and control period (1961-1990)

Dankers and Feyen, 2008.

Proportion of severe water stress EU river basins likely to increase from 19% today to 35%by 2070.

Areas affected by Areas affected by droughts will increase.

Risks in key sectorsWater: decresing water availability, changes in precipitation, melting of glaciers, extreme weather events, increasing competition of demand

Agriculture:Decreasing agricultural production, economic decline, more unempoyment, food shortages, increasing competition of demand

Energy

Urban spaceClimate change

Urbanisation: Increasing disaster risks, health risks, growing population dynamics, growing slums

Infrastructure, energy supply and transport: environmental change due to climate change increases running costs (damages, flooding etc) or reduces energy production (hydro)

WaterFood

EnergyInfrastructuretransport

Land use

Governance

• The scarcity of water is replacing oil as a flashpoint for conflict between nations

• The danger of international competition for adequate water

The water conflict scenario

competition for adequate water resources will grow inevitably.

•• Need to prevent intense

competition for this essential substance

http://www.availableimages.com/movies/2008/bluegold-

worldwaterwars/pictures-bluegold-worldwaterwars_pph_4.htmlhttp://

How to adapt?• Regarding increasing water stress, the most common

and planned strategies remain supply-side measures such as impounding rivers to form in-stream reservoirs (also wastewater reuse and desalination).

• Demand-side strategies are also needed, such as household, industrial and agricultural water conservation, household, industrial and agricultural water conservation, reducing leaky municipal and irrigation water systems, and water pricing.

• The main structural measures to protect against floodsare likely to remain reservoirs and dikes in highland and lowland areas respectively. Other planned adaptation options include expanded floodplain areas, emergency flood reservoirs, preserved areas for flood water, and flood warning systems.

Adaptation and WATER Risk Management

Approaches for a Changing Climate

Conclusions

• Water resources management in the CEE region faces formidable challenges.

• The hydrological regimes of the major rivers in the region are complex and vulnerable to climate change. change.

• The impact of a warming climate on key hydrological processes is not sufficiently understood

• At this point in time, the impacts are not sufficiently quantified in SEE region and adaptation and mitigation strategies not in place.