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Outlook
Think about all the change that has occurred in the past 10 years — from the societal to the individual, from the economic to the technological. These changes have not just affected the enterprise, they’ve redefined it. And of course, the rate of change is only accelerating.
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So, what will a successful enterprise look like in 15 years? Or 10? Or even 5?
How will it interact with customers, engage partners and empower employees? How might its business models, operating principles and organizational structures differ from today’s enterprise?
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To imagine the future of the enterprise, we must understand the forces that are transforming our world and the technological innovations that are shaping the future. How will our professional and personal lives be different? And in what new and unexpected ways will technology work for us?
Individually, we are at best nearsighted tochanges that will affect the enterprisein 2020 and beyond.
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But if we gather thousands of thinkers from the enterprise community, provoke one another to discuss the global, social, business and technological trends that are beginning to emerge—and help each other arrive at some consensus—then each of us will be better prepared not only to bring the challenges of the future into focus, but also to help our organizations do the same.
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Enterprise 20/20 is a collaborative effort to imagine, discuss and debate the future of the enterprise.
This six-month experiment—presented by HP and driven by the enterprise visionaries, industry leaders and technology experts who make up our community of customers—will result in a full-length, cloud-enabled book about what it will take for enterprises to succeed in 2020 and beyond.
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Together, we will examine trends, challenge assumptions and ultimately drill down to the very issues that matter most—to the boardroom, the applications team, the marketing department, the IT operations center and the CIO’s office.
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WorldWhen you think of 2020 what comes to mind? For some, “20/20” means perfect vision. For others, 2020 is a not-too-distant point in the future, just far enough to be somewhat fuzzy—or, depending on your point of view, completely obscure.
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1.2 World
Imagining the world of tomorrow means looking at the world of today, learning from the lessons of others, and being open to challengingnew ideas.
Here are six trends we think will shape our world by 2020:
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1.2 World
1 Young and old, more people will live on and shape our planet.
Between now and 2020, nearly 1 billion youth will reach adulthooda. This next generation of parents, leaders, workers and educators will find themselves surrounded by more people. Older people, younger people, richer and poorer people.
Many of these people will come of age in developing nations. But what will be different is that they will have grown up more aware of their world, connected through media and mobility to a global grid and a context to match.
And with the exposure will come the desire for change – for access to more and better goods and services, education, opportunities and healthier, richer lives.
Simultaneously, we’ll see the graying of the population in so-called developed countries. In total we’ll have nearly 7.6 billion people, including 23% more people over 75 years old, 30% more people over 80 years old and 58% more over 90 years oldb. These seniors will be more active and will work longer whether because of better health, financial need or personal passion.
Enterprise implicationsThe digital youth entering the workforce will expect what today’s digital natives expect: intuitive, 24x7 mobile access to information and the use of social tools to improve their effectiveness.
Active seniors will bring valuable experience to the workforce, provided we design flexible environments (virtual or mobile offices) and apply our ingenuity to delivering effective and efficient health care.
To address the consumer preferences of the social media-savvy generation, enterprises will need to extract meaning from the massive amounts of text, video and audio content that exists. And targeting consumers, while negotiating their strong desire for privacy, will require smarter analytics and more computing power than ever before.
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1.2 World
We should expect to see global tastes in fashion and entertainment more influenced by these newly dominant economies. The increasing connectedness of our 20/20 world will have a major impact on the rate at which attitudes and tastes from one culture assimilate globally. “Likes” will promote Chinese pop artists, Indian fashion labels, and Russian consumer goods at a rate unimagined to advertising executives from the previous century, buoyed by pride in local heroes, styles and products, and social networks combined with digital reach connecting millions.
Enterprise implicationsAs more countries challenge the West’s economic power, enterprises everywhere must rapidly react, plug into and reach the newly dominant cultures in the world of 2020.
Success will require a blend of hiring people who grew up in these growth economies as well as flexible and adaptable business processes that develop products, services and messages to meet local preferences, tastes and needs.
Enterprises will require advanced analytics and flexible business processes (most likely comprised of cloud-based services) to adapt to rapidly emerging and varying market opportunities.
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Enterprise implications Enterprises will capitalize on new product and services opportunities in existing markets that are challenged by resource scarcity. Already, venture capitalists are betting billions of dollars on new energy concepts, and enterprises will apply new techniques to improve yields on everything from agricultural production to resource extraction.
For internal improvement, enterprises will employ energy- and water- efficient strategies even as they grow compute, storage and network capacity to meet the growing demands of an increasingly digital populace and business environment. Increased use of cloud computing will provide flexibility to tap spare capacity with limited waste.
1.2 World
3 Resource scarcity will make usmore resourceful.
Necessity breeds invention. Scarcity of natural resources, from energy and water to precious metals to arable land, will be starting points for innovation. Population growth and the rise of the middle class is driving consumption around the globe.
As our existing resources become scarcer and more expensive, we will find new ways to improve our lives and the health of our world, knowing that failure will lead to austerity, or worse.
We foresee our society innovating new means of energy production, creating more comfortable and energy-efficient housing options to support our ongoing migration to cities, and eliminating shortages of educated workers by using the Internet to boost literacy rates and marketable skills.
Population growth and the rise of the middle class is driving consumption around the globe.
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1.2 World
4 Most of uswill live in cities.
Urban areas will be home to more than 60% of the world’s population by 2020c, up from about 50% in 2007d. This includes more than 70 cities with more than 5 million residents and more than 25 megacities with 10 million-plus residentse.
Cities have their problems, including the potential for inadequate housing, congestion and pollution. But well-run cities have attributes that will improve living conditions and our planet over time.
In particular, they hold the promise of lower carbon footprints per dweller and convenient physical access to services including education, health care and transportation. Also, the population density of cities makes access to high-bandwidth Internet more affordable to provide and consume, which in turn provides convenient digital access to goods, services and markets.
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1.2 World
Enterprise implications Increasingly, high-bandwidth access to over half of the world’s population provides numerous opportunities for enterprises:
• Enterprises will engage and interact with customers (and citizens) in rich, expressive, multi-media experiences 24x7. Imagine consumers around the globe trying your latest athletic shoe in a digital 3D augmented-reality experience.
• Enterprises will design rich virtual working environments to engage the best and brightest employees or contractors – wherever
they reside.
• At the same time government agencies and businesses alike will need to bring design and technology solutions to improve housing and transportation systems, solve traffic gridlock, to increase energy efficiency of buildings and find ways to use mobile and other solutions to serve the 40% still in towns and rural areas. The use of sensors to manage traffic flow and lighting in cities has already started, but should be even more intelligent with the technologies emerging by 2020.
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1.2 World
5 We’ll lose our village connections, but gain cyber connections.
Our connectedness and the pervasiveness of information continue to have positive impact. Social media is increasingly informing marketing and new product development, but it is also widely credited as a major facilitator of the Arab Spring of 2011.
In 2020 we’ll see it in even wider use to connect people with their personal and professional contacts, as well as communities of interest, businesses and governments. People will increasingly take advantage of bandwidth enhancements to express themselves in rich multimedia without being constrained by character counts.
Yet there will be tension as increasingly busy lives and the deluge of information threaten to overload our brains. The digitally savvy citizens of 2020 will appreciate the people, enterprises and government agencies who engage selectively and intelligently helping them balance the glut of information with their poverty of attention.
Enterprise implicationsIncreasingly, enterprises will amplify their intellectual property by creating virtual value chains of specialists—contractors, small businesses, other enterprises—that can help them take ideas to value rapidly. Social collaboration and the cloud will enable these virtual value chains to rapidly assemble, collaborate and realize new market opportunities, then dissolve and reintegrate around the next opportunity.
Sentiment analysis across social networks will help elected officials and marketers stay in touch with the citizens and markets they serve. In addition, use of social networks to support election candidates will be commonplace around the globe.
Enterprises will need to make sure they engage effectively—in a timely and targeted fashion. The replacement of text-based social communications (SMS, tweets) with video messages at global scale will necessitate the use of advanced analytics that render a precise understanding of the meaning and sentiment embedded in unstructured information. The popularity of video as a communication medium will also drive demand for more compute, network and storage capacity.
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1.2 World
In 2020, the threat of identity misuse and cyber crime will be ever present.
6 We will wrestle with our oftenconflicting needs for security,privacy and open access to information.
As we share more of our personal data across social network sites, online retail, banking, utilities and municipal services in 2020, the threat of identity misuse and cyber crime will be ever present. Sensors we wear to monitor our health and that line the streets to control traffic as well as the mobile devices we carry will feed millions of updates to systems that can be used for good — or misused for ill.
Businesses and governments will try to balance the demands of customers and citizens for constant access to information while maintaining appropriate security and privacy controls. But hackers, cyber criminals and cyber terrorists will continue to troll for new ways to target organizations with denial of service attacks and data theft.
Regulators will try to protect the populace from cyber criminals, rogue traders and nefarious corporations. Executives will be held personally responsible for managing the tradeoffs between ensuring the welfare of their customers, employees and personal reputations, and leveraging the value of personal information.
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1.2 World
Hackers, cyber criminals and cyber terrorists will continue to troll for new ways to target organizations.
Enterprise implicationsBoards and enterprises that haven’t already done so will appoint C-level executives to manage security, privacy, risk and compliance.
Commercial and government organizations will outsource sensitiveIT processes to secure cloud providers. These providers will employ former national intelligence specialists to continuously monitor and safeguard information at every level from infrastructure through to software applications.
We will find new ways to help customers, employees and citizens understand and make tradeoffs between access and security.
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Technology“How can I help you?” This phrase sums up technology in 2020—systems that will work alongside us, helping us to maximize scarce resources, to process the deluge of sensor- and human-generated information and to gain insights to make progress rapidly.
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Looking at technologies that may be available by 2020, and considering how they’ll help us realize our fullest potential, is how we’ll solve the challenges of the next decade.
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Enterprise implicationsAs we increase our population densities, we must manage the systems that support us. We must know “what’s happening out there” in detail. And we must optimize our systems so that we don’t waste resources while striving to improve our quality of life (one without shortages and huge delays).
We will see these cognitive systems used to manage utilities, emergency services and crime prevention. We’ll also see ultra-optimized supply chains where we know the position of every item in the chain.
1 Cognitive systems as human partners.
Autonomous transportation systems will manage vehicle flow through a megacity of 20 million people. This will be made possible by combining a vast array of traffic sensors, advanced real-time analytics and the immense computing power required to perform cognitive decision making on the fly and at scale.
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1.3 Technology
2 Computation re-imagined.
The amount of data in the world is set to increase by 44 times from 2009 to 2020f. This is due to the growth in unstructured data and the widespread use of sensors to tell us “what’s going on out there.” Gathering all this data, analyzing it and then interacting with a world of mobile humans is not possible with today’s computing and network technology.
By 2020, new computer/storage blocks will allow us to take in and process huge amounts of data in real time. And networks, especially mobile networks, will be faster and able to securely handle the 33-fold increase in traffic we will see from 2010 to 2020g.
The amount of data in the worldis set to increase by 44 times from 2009 to 2020.
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1.3 Technology
IT management in 2020 will be very good at flexing - adjusting to peak demands that could be 20, 50 or 100 times the normal run rate.
Enterprise implicationsOur development systems must evolve to program arrays of hundreds of thousands of processors optimally.
Our existing IT management systems won’t scale to manage such environments. IT management in 2020 will be very good at flexing —adjusting to peak demands that could be 20, 50 or 100 times the normal run rate.
These systems must also be self-healing. We see this technology evolving today with run-book automation; but to handle the systems of 2020, self-adjusting and self-healing must be programmed in during development, not bolted on after release.
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1.3 Technology
By 2020, robotic medical assistants will make the hospital rounds, detecting signals from sensors attached to patients. These assistants will talk to “medi-cloud” systems that process the information to provide insights and alerts to medical staff.
We will augment and enhance our existing businesses by better understanding our customers and the changes in our markets. We will invent entirely new businesses by exploiting information at a velocity and on a scale that was previously unattainable. In the two decades preceding 2020, some of the most successful Internet search, social networking and gaming companies were built on the foundation of real-time analytics of large-scale data.
3 Insights to help humans.
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By 2020, our scarcest resource will be our own attention spans.
1.3 Technology
As data continues to expand through increased human usage, people will increasingly value the time savings and convenience afforded by a system that understands our current needs and then, via micro-segmentation, targets content and offers based on those precise needs. By 2020, our scarcest resource will be our own attention spans. These systems will focus us on the things that are important.
Enterprise implications
Product and service designers will need to design systems that:
• Determine the human user’s current situation
• Understand precisely what the person wants; and
• Use powerful analytical ability to make highly focused and insightful suggestions.
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4 Personalizing the power of the cloud.
By 2020, most of us will have mobile devices. These devices will be able to see what we are looking at, understand our gestures and reliably know what we are asking. Yet they will lack the elastic, scalable computing power and linkages to huge stores of unstructured and sensor data that the back-end cloud will have.
2020127 exabytes
2010 3.8 exabytes
33X INCREASE
Mobile traffic multiplies6
Mobile traffic forecast in EB (exabytes)(1 EB = 1,000,000 terabytes)
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1.3 Technology
By 2020, our mobile devices willbe able to display 3D for us.
This combination of advanced mobile front-ends and analysis-capable back-end cloud capability, however, will mean that applications will know our wants and needs — in some cases, even before we do.
Today, our mobile devices present information and conclusions to us in a way that is flat — literally. Humans can reason in 3D much more readily, because that’s how we interact with the physical world. By 2020, our mobile devices will be able to display 3D for ush.
For example, an architect works with an architectural cloud service via her mobile device. The resulting design is projected in 3D by the mobile device. Such technology is already in use for cancer drug design — but it’s very expensive and most certainly not mobile.
Enterprise implicationsApplications will be based on a client/cloud model. These applications will support a range of clients — mobile, smart TV, gaming device or laptop. The applications will connect to domain-specific back ends like the aforementioned architecture cloud. We will be able to move from mobile to smart TV to laptop seamlessly — the cloud service will remember our state as we “client hop,” and the application will scale our capabilities to match our current client.
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1.3 Technology
By 2020, many more business opportunities will be served by clusters of affiliated specialists — individual consultants or small businesses that join together to bring a product or service to market. Take, for example, the explosion of mobile apps in this decade — frequently they’re built not by large integrated companies, but by an entrepreneur who contracts out the design, animation, programming and back-end cloud services to various experts who coalesce to create and deliver the app. People will increasingly work as “free agents” or will form into clusters of small-to-midsize businesses (SMBs). In order to create products and deliver services, these dynamic mosaics of specialists will be linked by advanced collaboration tools.
The business processes that IT delivers will likewise be mosaics —mosaics linked by process management and integration technology. CIOs will thus become innovators, designing business processes and orchestrating services (as well as architecting the reliability, security and cost/performance of these processes and services).
5 Dynamic services.
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1.3 Technology
People will increasingly work as “free agents” or will form into clusters of small-to-midsize businesses (SMBs).
Service providers that offer cloud services to support SMBs will evolve. They will provide aggregation services allowing SMBs to simply “plug in and go,” creating fully functioning companies within a day.
Cloud will become common, secure and reliable. This will allow IT to evolve from being a support function to becoming a key participant in business teams. Highly geared business process and application design tools, coupled with a rich array of cloud services, will allow IT to quickly create solutions that give the business competitive advantage. This will require a change of skills in the IT department, from people focused on operations, to people with skills at the intersection between business analyst and IT designer.
We believe this is an exciting time for IT—the ability to inject competitive advantage into business teams will mean that IT is highly valued by the business.
Enterprise implicationsThe speed with which teams can be formed from pools of affiliated specialists will be a competitive advantage to the enterprise, as will be the degree to which groups are creative and productive. The enterprise thus needs to ensure it has excellent tools and processes to support such working methods.
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1.3 Technology
Cyber-physical systems will account for an increasing proportion of building, factory and vehicle costs as well as value.
6 Cyber-physical Systems.
A pharmaceutical factory control system uses an array of sensors to conserve water, energy and material used in its factory. The system reduces waste produced by the factory and ensures adherence to all relevant eco-compliance levels.
By 2020, we will all be acutely aware of the limits on our physical resources — water, energy, minerals and food. We will employ cyber-physical systems (systems built from and based on the synergy of physical and computational components) to better control our effect on the environment and our use of resources.
We will use them in buildings, transportation and factories. They will reduce the waste of spoilage in food and pharmaceuticals.
Enterprise implicationsMany products in 2020 will have a high cyber-physical content. We are already seeing this in cars — the start-stop and temperature-control systems in engines have increased energy efficiency. But construction, food production and pharmaceutical companies of the future must use these systems too. Cyber-physical systems will account for an increasing proportion of building, factory and vehicle costs as wellas value.
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1.3 Technology
Security systems will harness intelligence to proactively anticipate and take action against cyber threats.
7 Security and privacy.
In a world where everyone is connected, where there are 1 trillion sensors and huge increases in the amount of data being stored and analyzed, today’s security systems won’t be able to protect our privacy or keep us safe from determined cyber attackers.
By 2020, security systems will be more adaptive and dynamic in order to automatically thwart attacks from an ever-increasingly sophisticated threat landscape. Security systems will harness intelligence to proactively anticipate and take action against cyber threats – they will find risk before it finds you.
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EnterpriseDriven by world trends, and supported by new technologies, enterprises in 2020 will differ physically and functionally from today’s enterprises.
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1.4 Enterprise
1 We’ll work in virtual offices on virtual teams.
The days of the grinding commute to the exurb campus or the prestigious downtown skyscraper are numbered. Concerns about fuel shortage and availability of land in megacities cause enterprises in 2020 to radically rethink their real-estate strategies. Ubiquitous cloud computing has removed the need for every business to have its own data center; bandwidth supports remote working; and the Millennial Generation is fully attuned to being productive and cooperative without constant physical interaction.
As discussed in the technology section, the dynamic mosaics of specialists connected by collaboration tools become dominant in the enterprise. The ratio of full-time employees to contracted specialists will shift dramatically. Today we see IT departments of global corporations staffed by a mere dozen employees; what impact will we see on other business functions? Will we see the end of the monolithic corporation with hundreds of thousands of full-time employees?
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2 We’ll rely more on systems of engagement than systemsof record.
In 2011, Geoffrey Moore published a paper detailing systems of engagement and their role in the future of ITi. By 2020, with demographic shifts, access to high bandwidth and embrace ofsocial networking, systems of engagement will be mainstream,as enterprises seek to cultivate their relationships with customers around the globe. The real-time impact of social media on brand reputation and the instant feedback on concepts and launches will require full-time monitoring and analysis.
The real-time impact of social media on brand reputation and the instant feedback on concepts and launches will require full-time monitoringand analysis.
Already cited by several sources, some enterprises will appoint Chief Listening Officers, who will tap into social media and other communication platforms to better understand changing customer needs and tastes.
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1.4 Enterprise
3 We’ll use data in real-time and only preserve what’s needed.
In past decades, IT focused on accumulating more and more data in ERP/MRP/CRM systems and on deploying tools to mine it.
Increasingly, sales and marketing teams will extract more value in the instant from transient data in social media, web, sensor and mobile interactions, and enterprises overall will “offshore” their data to the cloud.
We will combine marketing, IT and legal expertise to identify what data must be stored; to determine how long and where to store the data; and to find new strategies to reduce information lifecyclemanagement costs.
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1.4 Enterprise
The major demographic shifts of 2020 throw new sets of customer needs into focus. By employing managers with a cultural understanding of Brazil, Russia, India, China and so forth, and by capturing trends in social media, enterprises in 2020 will easily tap into the needs of these emerging middle classes. But the more digitally isolated and retired sectors of society represent an increasingly profitable segment. Enterprises in 2020 need to tune in to the growing numbers of seniors to create products and services for people who may live in retirement for as long as they were in employment.
4 We’ll turn changing demographics into business opportunities.
The more digitally isolated and retired sectors of society represent an increasingly profitable segment.
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1.4 Enterprise
The enterprise of 2020 is fundamentally different in terms of tangible assets and direct control of labor. As the mosaic approach becomes the norm, the CFO must be able to report on the company’s ability to deliver ongoing value with fewer “in-house” resources. Future stock market valuations will likely be influenced by perceptions of an enterprise’s ability to influence social media networks and capitalize on insight from them. Will we see some form of Klout scorefor enterprises?
Finally, it will become increasingly important, and likely legislated, to measure and report transparently on total environmental impact of business operations.
5 We’ll finance, measure and value our businesses differently.
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1.4 Enterprise
Business Planning and Strategy
Skills in helping the business deal with technology complexity
Business Process Design and Composition
IT Service Management
Project Portfolio Management
Requirements Management
Agile Development
Risk Management
Business Services Monitoring & AssuranceCommunications
Valuable Neutral Not valuable
What you need to succeed9
Most valuable skills and capabilities that IT Teams will need in 2020
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1.4 Enterprise
In previous decades, leaders and HR managers focused on employee recruitment, development and long-term retention. In 2020, enterprises will shift focus to engaging fluid groups of labor — “supertemps” who will take on strategic projects for a relatively short period. The HR leaders of 2020 must address the following questions: Who are the “rock-star” supertemps? How do we ensure they keep data confidential? How do we get them to come back for future projects? How do we feel about sharing our talent with rivals? HR will evolve into more of a community management role, doubtless supported by smart social
6 We’ll manage talent in new ways.
In 2020, enterprises will shift focus to engaging fluid groupsof labor - “Supertemps.”
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DiscussionAs we look to 2020, we are excited about the promise technology holds to help us address the opportunities and challenges in our rapidly changing world. As professionals, we have a responsibility to look forward, to play out scenarios and challenge one another to sharpen our vision.
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“What will matter in 2020?”
Coming from different countries, different industries, from inside and outside IT, we each bring a unique perspective to the question we’re proposing:
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1.6 Sources
Graphics
1. http://www.citymayors.com/statistics/urban 2020 1.html
2. The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, Homi Kharas, Brookings Institution, June, 2011
3. Guardian UK http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/mar/02/cctv-cameras-watching-surveillance
4. IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP, for 20/20, May 2012
5a National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, 2030 Report http://www.nistep.go.jp/
5b Guardian UK, Launching a New Kind of Warfare http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2006/oct/26/guardianweeklytechnologysection.robots
5c BBC Newshttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6425927.stm
5d BBC Newshttp://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/6425927.stm
5e National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, 2030 Reporthttp://www.nistep.go.jp/
5f Techcasts, Technology Forecast Resultshttp://www.techcast.org/Forecasts.aspx
5g ScienceDaily, Scientists Developing Robotic Hand of the Futurehttp://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110629083237.htm
5h Marshall Brain, Robotic Nationhttp://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm
5i Guardian UK, Launching a New Kind of Warfarehttp://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2006/oct/26/guardianweeklytechnologysection.robots
6. UMTS Forum, Mobile Traffic Forecasts 2010-20/20, January 2011
7. IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP, for 20/20, May 2012
8. US Census Bureau
9. IDG Research Services, IT Executives Vision, conducted for HP, for 20/20, May 2012
Text
a. Source: US Census Bureau
b. Source: US Census Bureau
c. Source: Frost and Sullivan, “50th Anniversay: 50 Predictions for 50”, 2011 d. Source: UNFPA (United Nations Population Fund), Demographic, Social and Economic Indicators, 2007
e. Source: City Mayors, The world’s largest cities and urban areas in 2020, 2012
f. Source: IDC iView, The Digital Universe Decade – Are You Ready? May 2010
g. Source: UMTS Forum, “ Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020 (commissioned research conducted by IDATE), January 2011
h. Source: Display Search, “3D Display Technology and Market Forecast Report”, 2010
i. Source: Forbes Magazine, Systems of Engagement and the Future of IT, Geoffrey Moore, 2012
“The views set forth in this publication are not necessarily those of Hewlett-Packard Company or its affiliates (HP), but are the collective views of contributors to this publication, some of which have been curated by HP. Because the content of this publication is future-looking, it, by definition, makes certain presuppositions and assumptions, some or all of which may or may not be realized.”
