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Situation normal, everything must
change
Sccott Beale/Laughing Squid : http://www.flickr.com/photos/laughingsquid/
Pain
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No. Slides
Pain
OK
20 slides
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OK
Severerisk of harm
246 slides
photos/videoplacebo/3481780379/
Cloud?
Note 1: Cloud computing is still an evolving paradigm. Its definitions, use cases, underlying technologies, issues, risks, and benefits will be refined in a spirited debate by the public and private sectors. These definitions, attributes, and characteristics will evolve and change over time.
Note 2: The cloud computing industry represents a large ecosystem of many models, vendors, and market niches. This definition attempts to encompass all of the various cloud approaches.Definition of Cloud Computing:
Cloud computing is a model for enabling convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications, and services) that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction. This cloud model promotes availability and is composed of five essential characteristics, three service models, and four deployment models.
Essential Characteristics:On-demand self-service. A consumer can unilaterally provision computing capabilities, such as server time and network storage, as needed automatically without requiring human interaction with each service’s provider. Broad network access. Capabilities are available over the network and accessed through standard mechanisms that promote use by heterogeneous thin or thick client platforms (e.g., mobile phones, laptops, and PDAs).Resource pooling. The provider’s computing resources are pooled to serve multiple consumers using a multi-tenant model, with different physical and virtual resources dynamically assigned and reassigned according to consumer demand. There is a sense of location independence in that the customer generally has no control or knowledge over the exact location of the provided resources but may be able to specify location at a higher level of abstraction (e.g., country, state, or datacenter). Examples of resources include storage, processing, memory, network bandwidth, and virtual machines.Rapid elasticity. Capabilities can be rapidly and elastically provisioned, in some cases automatically, to quickly scale out and rapidly released to quickly scale in. To the consumer, the capabilities available for provisioning often appear to be unlimited and can be purchased in any quantity at any time.Measured Service. Cloud systems automatically control and optimize resource use by leveraging a metering capability at some level of abstraction appropriate to the type of service (e.g., storage, processing, bandwidth, and active user accounts). Resource usage can be monitored, controlled, and reported providing transparency for both the provider and consumer of the utilized service.
Service Models:Cloud Software as a Service (SaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to use the provider’s applications running on a cloud infrastructure. The applications are accessible from various client devices through a thin client interface such as a web browser (e.g., web-based email). The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems, storage, or even individual application capabilities, with the possible exception of limited user-specific application configuration settings.Cloud Platform as a Service (PaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to deploy onto the cloud infrastructure consumer-created or acquired applications created using programming languages and tools supported by the provider. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure including network, servers, operating systems, or storage, but has control over the deployed applications and possibly application hosting environment configurations.Cloud Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS). The capability provided to the consumer is to provision processing, storage, networks, and other fundamental computing resources where the consumer is able to deploy and run arbitrary software, which can include operating systems and applications. The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloud infrastructure but has control over operating systems, storage, deployed applications, and possibly limited control of select networking components (e.g., host firewalls).
Deployment Models:Private cloud. The cloud infrastructure is operated solely for an organization. It may be managed by the organization or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise.Community cloud. The cloud infrastructure is shared by several organizations and supports a specific community that has shared concerns (e.g., mission, security requirements, policy, and compliance considerations). It may be managed by the organizations or a third party and may exist on premise or off premise.Public cloud. The cloud infrastructure is made available to the general public or a large industry group and is owned by an organization selling cloud services.Hybrid cloud. The cloud infrastructure is a composition of two or more clouds (private, community, or public) that remain unique entities but are bound together by standardized or proprietary technology that enables data and application portability (e.g., cloud bursting for load-balancing between clouds).Note: Cloud software takes full advantage of the cloud paradigm by being service oriented with a focus on statelessness, low coupling, modularity, and semantic interoperability.
Point 1Cloud computing is still an evolving
paradigm.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
We don’t know what “cloud” is yet.
“The real thing to do today is to capture, what are the dimensions of the thing that literally, I will tell you, we’re betting our
company on, and I think pretty much everybody in the technology industry is
betting their companies on”
Microsoft CEO, Steve Ballmer
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
We don’t know what “cloud” is yet
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
We don’t know what “cloud” is yet
but bet your company on it
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
We don’t know what “cloud” is yet
but bet your company on it
everybody else is.
“open up exciting new prospects for the
employment of computers in ways and on a scale that would have seemed pure
fantasy only five year ago”
“The challenge of the computer utility” Douglas Parkhill
1966
http://www.flickr.com/photos/radioflyer007/http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Metropolis.jpg
http://ftp.arl.army.mil/ftp/historic-computers/png/brlescII1.png
Computer Utility Cloud Computing
Change
ChangeWhy now?
ChangeWhy now?
Benefits & Risk
ChangeWhy now?
Benefits & RiskGeneral
ChangeWhy now?
Benefits & RiskGeneral
Managing Change
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
TV’s, Phones & VCRS
Certainty
Ubiquity
TV’s, Phones & VCRS
InnovationCertainty
Ubiquity
Commodity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Innovation of early lists, 1980.
Certainty
Ubiquity
Custom built, DB MarketingMid 80s
Certainty
Ubiquity
ProductEarly 90s
Certainty
Ubiquity
Utility Services of Salesforce
Certainty
Ubiquity
Product
Custom builtInnovation
Commodity
Utility Services
Certainty
Ubiquity
Innovation of Z3, 1941Certainty
Ubiquity
Custom Built LEO, 1946
Certainty
Ubiquity
Products IBM 650, 1954
Certainty
Ubiquity
Commodity Hardware
Certainty
Ubiquity
Utility services of Amazon EC2
Certainty
Ubiquity
Innovation of W. H. Wollaston, 1821
Certainty
Ubiquity
Early Products, Hippolyte Pixii, 1830s
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Utility Services of the National
Grid
Certainty
Ubiquity
Accounts
Payroll
HR systems
Information market
Enterprise 2.0
InfrastructureCRM
ERP
VRM
Electricity
Search Engines
Web Portal
Certainty
Ubiquity
Commodi
tisation
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege/
Demand (user competition)
Certainty
Ubiquity
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mush2274/
Improvement (supply competition)
Certainty
Ubiquity
Demand (user competition)
Commodi
tisation
Certainty
Ubiquity
Improvement (supply competition)
Demand (user competition)
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Widespread(Demand)
Feature Complete(Improvement)
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Utility Services
Database Framework
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Virtualisation
Database Framework
Operating System
Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Virtualisation
Database Framework
Operating System
Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Virtualisation Infrastructure
Database Framework
Operating System
Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Virtualisation Infrastructure
Platform
Database Framework
Operating System
Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Virtualisation Infrastructure
Platform
Software
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
... as aProduct
... as aService
Certainty
Ubiquity
ChangeWhy now?
Concept
Concept
Suitability
Concept
Suitability
Technology?
Gerald J. Popek (1947-2008)
Concept
Suitability
Technology
Attitude
?
Nick Carr
Diminis
hing
strateg
ic valu
e
Certainty
Ubiquity
Payroll
HR Systems
CRMERP
Infrastructure
Finance & Accounting
Sales Automation
Certainty
Ubiquity
PayrollHR
Certainty
Ubiquity
PayrollHR
Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising
stuff has no strategic value?
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Customise your payroll system!
Certainty
Ubiquity
Way back when ...
Certainty
Ubiquity
Way back when ...
Now
Certainty
Ubiquity
Standardised Service!
Certainty
Ubiquity
Marketplace
Standardised Service!
Concept
Suitability
Technology
Attitude
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
... as aProduct
... as aService
Certainty
Ubiquity
ChangeWhy now?
Benefits & Risk
Certainty
Ubiquity
Early UtilityWestinghouse,
1890s
Product Hippolyte Pixii,
1830s
Certainty
Ubiquity
Economies of scale(volume operations)
Certainty
Ubiquity
Economies of scale(volume operations)
Focus on core (outsource)
Certainty
Ubiquity
Economies of scale(volume operations)
Focus on core (outsource)
Pay per use (utility)
Certainty
Ubiquity
Economies of scale(volume operations)
Focus on core (outsource)
Pay per use (utility)
Certainty
Ubiquity
efficiency
Certainty
Ubiquity
Agility (Self Service)
New server
64 node cluster
Previous Time(mins)
72,000
130,000
New server
64 node cluster
Previous Time(mins)
Cloud Time(mins)
72,000
130,000
7
15
Certainty
Ubiquity
Agility (Self Service)
Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation)
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.
The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers, goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates.
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
newnew
newnew
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
Creative Destruction
Erodin
g Valu
e
Certainty
Ubiquity
Erodin
g Valu
e
EnablesInnovation
Certainty
Ubiquity
ElectricityInternet
Certainty
Ubiquity
Hardware
Electricity
Hardware
Internet
Search
Certainty
Ubiquity
EnableInnovation
Certainty
Ubiquity
EnableInnovation
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
Theory of Hierarchy Componentisation
Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
Rate of evolution of a system is
dependant upon the organisation of its subsystems.
Herbert A. Simon (1916 - 2001)
Application
Database Framework Messaging
Application
Database Framework
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Virtualisation
Database Framework
Operating System
CPU Memory I/O
Messaging
Application
Virtualisation
CPU
Application
Orders of Magnitude
Certainty
Ubiquity
AcceleratedInnovation
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
Henry Maudslay(1771 - 1831)
Agility (Self Service)
Certainty
Opportunity(long tail, co-evolution, price elasticity)
Ubiquity
Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation)
Projects
Impo
rtan
ce
Limit of IT
Projects
Impo
rtan
ce
Limit of IT
demand(backlog)
Quantity
Price
!P
!Q
InnovationFlemming Valve, 1904
Certainty
Ubiquity
ProductsIntel 4004, 2300 Transistors, 1971
Certainty
Ubiquity
Busicom
MCS-4
Busicom
MCS-4
Busicom
Co-Evolution
> 1,000,000,000,000,000,000
Agility (Self Service)
Certainty
Opportunity(long tail, co-evolution, price elasticity)
Ubiquity
Innovation (creative destruction, componentisation)
Certainty
Ubiquity
consumption
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
It’ll reduce your IT spend.
consumption
efficiency
William Stanley Jevons, 1865
“Jevons Paradox”
Technological progress that increases the
efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to
increase the rate of consumption of that
resource.
Choice?
Market
Certainty
Ubiquity
You
Market
Competitive Gap
Certainty
Ubiquity
You
Market
Speed to marketEconomies of scaleFocus on core
Pay per use
Accelerated innovation
Certainty
Ubiquity
You
Pres
sure
Certainty
Ubiquity
Market
You
Pres
sure
Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis”
Certainty
Ubiquity
Market
You
“Red Queen Hypothesis”
The need to constantly evolve in order to stand
still relative to a surrounding ecosystem
Prof. Van Valen
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/billege
http://www.flickr.com/photos/giddygoose/
No Choice?
Certainty
Ubiquity
Marketplace
Certainty
Ubiquity
Private
Marketplace
Certainty
Ubiquity
Hybrid
Certainty
Ubiquity
Transition
GovernanceTrust
Confusion
TransparencySecurity
Transition
GovernanceTrust
Confusion
Transparency
CompetitionLock-inSecond SourceControl
SuitabilityOutsourcing
Security
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Transitional Risks Security of supply, governance, trust ... Hybrid
Certainty
Ubiquity
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Only public cloud is cloud computing!
vsBenefits Risks
Recap
... as aService
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
... as aProduct
Certainty
Ubiquity
Concept
Suitability
Technology
Attitude
Certainty
Ubiquity
AcceleratedInnovation
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
Transition
GovernanceTrust
Confusion
Transparency
CompetitionLock-inSecond SourceControl
SuitabilityOutsourcing
Security
Certainty
Ubiquity
Pres
sure
Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis”
Certainty
Ubiquity
Market
You
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
Certainty
Ubiquity
Hybrid
vsBenefits Risks
ChangeWhy now?
Benefits & RiskGeneral
IT
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Infrastructure
Certainty
Ubiquity
Infrastructure
Collective Intelligence
Enables
Certainty
Ubiquity
built on ...
provided as ..
Certainty
Ubiquity
Certainty
Ubiquity
Hybrid
Data
Code
Data
Code
Proprietary Open Source
Proprietary Open Source
TCO
Proprietary Open Source
Exit
defacto public standard
open source implementation
Minimise future costs
ChangeWhy now?
Benefits & RiskGeneral
Managing Change
Certainty
Ubiquity
Accounts
Payroll
HR systems
Information market
Enterprise 2.0
InfrastructureCRM
ERP
VRM
Electricity
Search Engines
Web Portal
Certainty
Ubiquity
Accounts
Payroll
HR systems
Information market
Enterprise 2.0
InfrastructureCRM
ERP
VRM
Electricity
Search Engines
Web Portal
Lifecycle
Lifecycle
#
Lifecycle
#
Lifecycle
#
Payroll
HR systems
Infrastructure
CRM
Electricity
Lifecycle
#
Information market
Enterprise 2.0
VRM
Lifecycle
#
Demand vs Suppply CompetitionCo-evolution
Commoditisation
Lifecycle
#
CommoditisationDemand vs Suppply Competition
Co-evolution
InnovationCreative DestructionComponentisation
Lifecycle
#
Lifecycle
#
Dynamic
Lifecycle
#
DeviationDynamic
Lifecycle
#
DeviationDynamic
Uncertain
Lifecycle
#
Emergent
DeviationDynamic
Uncertain
Lifecycle
#
Emergent
DeviationDynamic
Serendipty
Uncertain
Lifecycle
#
Emergent
Competive Adv.
DeviationDynamic
Serendipty
Uncertain
Lifecycle
#
Emergent
Competive Adv.
DeviationDynamic
Serendipty
Uncertain
Chaotic
Lifecycle
#
Emergent
Competive Adv.
DeviationDynamic
Serendipty
Uncertain
Chaotic Linear
Lifecycle
#
Repeatable
Emergent
Competive Adv.
DeviationDynamic
Serendipty
Uncertain
Chaotic Linear
Lifecycle
#
StandardisedRepeatable
Emergent
Competive Adv.
DeviationDynamic
Serendipty
Uncertain
Chaotic Linear
Lifecycle
#
StandardisedKnown
Repeatable
Emergent
Competive Adv.
DeviationDynamic
Serendipty
Uncertain
Chaotic Linear
Lifecycle
#
Predictable
StandardisedKnown
Repeatable
Emergent
Competive Adv.
DeviationDynamic
Serendipty
Uncertain
Chaotic Linear
Lifecycle
#
ProceduralPredictable
StandardisedKnown
Repeatable
Emergent
Competive Adv.
DeviationDynamic
Serendipty
Uncertain
Chaotic Linear
Lifecycle
#
ProceduralPredictable
CODB
StandardisedKnown
Repeatable
Emergent
Competive Adv.
DeviationDynamic
Serendipty
Uncertain
Chaotic Linear
Lifecycle
#
ProceduralPredictable
CODB
StandardisedKnown
Repeatable
Emergent
Competive Adv.
DeviationDynamic
Serendipty
Uncertain
Chaotic Linear
Chaotic Linear
Lifecycle
#
Innovation of early lists, 1980.
Utility Services of Salesforce
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Use Six Sigma!
Lifecycle
# Six Sigma
Lifecycle
#
Predictable
StandardisedKnown
RepeatableSix Sigma
Lifecycle
#
Emergent
DeviationDynamic
Uncertain
Six Sigma
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
Use Six Sigma!
No! Use Agile!
Lifecycle
#
Emergent
DeviationDynamic
Uncertain
Agile
Agile
Lifecycle
#
Predictable
StandardisedKnown
Repeatable
Lifecycle
#
No Magic Bullet
Lifecycle
#
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
Lifecycle
#
Joseph A. Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)
Prof. Van Valen
Survival today requires ‘coherence, coordination and stability’.
Survival tomorrow requires the replacement of these erstwhile virtues.
Salaman & Storey
Innovation Paradox
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rainbowproject/3928445074/
One Size fits all!
Product
Custom builtInnovation
Commodity
Utility Services
Certainty
Ubiquity
Lifecycle
#
Lifecycle
#
Six Sigma
Lifecycle
#
Lifecycle
#
Outsource
Lifecycle
#
Why are we spending $600M p.a. on customising
stuff has no strategic value?
Lifecycle
#
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
Lifecycle
#
Innovation
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
Lifecycle
#
“Provided as” “Built on”
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
http://www.flickr.com/photos/fatdeeman/2879894647
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
http://www.flickr.com/photos/8078381@N03/3979391704/
Recap
... as aService
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
... as aProduct
Certainty
Ubiquity
Concept
Suitability
Technology
Attitude
Certainty
Ubiquity
AcceleratedInnovation
Infrastructure
Platform
Software
Transition
GovernanceTrust
Confusion
Transparency
CompetitionLock-inSecond SourceControl
SuitabilityOutsourcing
Security
Certainty
Ubiquity
consumption
efficiency
Pres
sure
Prof. Van Valen “Red Queen Hypothesis”
Certainty
Ubiquity
Market
You
http://www.flickr.com/photos/privatenobby
Certainty
Ubiquity
Hybrid
vsBenefits Risks
defacto public standard
open source implementation
Minimise future costs
Lifecycle
#
“Provided as” “Built on”
http://www.flickr.com/photos/rednuht/479370088
Lifecycle
#
CommoditisationDemand vs Suppply Competition
Co-evolution
InnovationCreative DestructionComponentisation
Leading Edge Forum 06/08/10 02:53 AM
The annual LEF EP Study Tour this year will focus on the rapid evolution of IT consumerization – In terms of driving business change
2010 Study Tour – Surf the Change or Be Swept Away – Consumerization, Mobility, and the Cloud
• How do we treat IT-savvy employees and customers – in terms of their technology decision rights?
• How do we promote business value add in terms of social networking tool usage? – without “heavy handed “ IT governance?
• What information sharing rules need to be changed in an era of increased external collaboration?
• How do we make it easier for staff to leverage cloud computing services? – while maintaining enterprise discipline around security and risk?
Some Key Questions To Be Addressed
17 – 22 October 2010San Francisco, USA
For more information, visit: http://lef.csc.com/events/studytour