Climate Change:!Global State of Play &

Climate Finance vis-à-vis Regional & Local Challenges!

Belynda Petrie, 12 November 2011

Outline!•  State of Play: COP 17"

–  Political realities"–  Challenges for Durban"–  Outcome filters"–  Ambition"–  Long term Cooperative Action "–  Mitigation/MRV"–  Adaptation"–  Finance"

•  Climate Finance""•  Regional and basin Risk & Vulnerability to CC"

"

“We go to Durban with no illusion at all that it will be a walk in the park. On the contrary, we are fully aware that

in some areas the national interest of Parties will make consensus a challenge.”

President Jacob Zuma, 31 October 2011

Political Realities!Developed Countries!•  Japan, Canada, Russia, Australia: no Kyoto 2CP, emission

pledges in single agreement under Convention, move what works from KP to Convention;

•  USA:  symmetry with emerging developing country economies; no legally binding agreement under Convention;

•  EU, Environmental Integrity Group:  preference for a single legal agreement, possible 2CP if “wider agreement” to a transitional arrangement with conditions, namely: LULUCF rules, surplus AAU’s, markets, and a time frame for concluding a single ( merging the tracks) legally binding agreement (LBI) in the future, with all major emitters;

•  EIT’s, Turkey: access to finance, technology & capacity building support;

Political Realities!Developing Countries!•  China, India: no new (or legal) obligations for them (without USA or

Kyoto 2CP or equity)

•  SIDS, LDC, Africa: increase ambition, 2 track legal on all major emitters & balanced treatment of adaptation, resolution on finance package, keeping well below 2 degrees;

•  BASIC: 2CP with comparability for the US under the Convention, CBDR, equity, comprehensive, ambitious and fair outcome;

•  Bolivia & ALBA: increase ambition, mother earth rights ; 2CP; no markets;

•  OPEC: adequate treatment of “response measures” under both tracks.

Durban’s Challenge!•  Range: 35-40 decisions requiring action at Durban: Not all

are priorities/deal breakers •  Balance between Bali and Cancun: Operationalisation of

institutions and governance, while resolving outstanding issues and not just being a organistional Conference.

•  Balance between the 2 tracks: Resolving and making progress on the 2CP, while addressing the future legal form of the outcome under the LCA/Convention (process/substance);

•  Balance within each track:!–  Kyoto: sequencing issue; resolution of “targets then

rules” or “rules then targets;” –  Convention: ensure balanced progress on all issues,

technical progress on agreed issues & political progress on unfinished business.

Durban Outcome Filters!•  Does it address the emissions gaps? •  Does it address the finance/means of

implementation gap? •  Does it influence the outcome of the 2CP? •  Is it immediate, is there a timeframe/process? •  What is the level of detail required? •  How does it relate to the future Legally Binding

Instrument (LBI)? •  Is it a red-line for Africa? •  How does it relate to the overall & other packages? •  Who are the key players?

Ambition !•  Process for clarification of pledges and scaling up

ambition. Process to ratchet up (not down) commitments at any time;

•  Global temperature goals, linked to global means of implementation goals; (emissions and finance gaps);

•  Scope and modalities of the Review, including gap analysis;

•  Future of the KP 2CP; •  Mandate for legally binding instrument by

2014/15 on LCA track with legally binding commitments in line with the science.

State of Play -LCA!•  MRV: 5 Non papers/2 Co-facilitators texts •  Shared Vision: 1 Facilitator Non paper •  REDD: 1 Facilitator Non paper

•  Adaptation: 1 draft Decision text

•  Finance: 2 Co-facilitators consolidated texts •  Sectoral Approaches: Facilitators Note

•  Technology: 1 draft Decision text

•  Markets: Compilation text •  Response Measures: Facilitator’s Note •  Review: Non paper

Mitigation /MRV!•  Guidelines and process for biennial reports; •  Revised National Communications; •  International Assessment and Review (IAR)

and Annex I accounting; •  International Consultation and Review (ICR); •  Operationalise the Registry; •  MRV of support; •  Common Reporting Framework (CRF)

Adaptation!Direct Package!•  Adaptation Committee: Operationalise,

governance (elections) and institutional linkages within adaptation issues (Framework, NWP, L&D)

•  Adaptation Framework: How to advance work on footnoted thematic areas and avoid issue fragmentation;

•  National Adaptation Plans: Agreement of process, scope and support.

Linked Package!•  Finance/GCF (numbers and institutions/process)

Finance!Direct Package!•  Operationalisation of the Green Climate Fund (COP) •  Long-term sources and scale of finance •  Operationalisation of the Standing Committee on Finance •  Review of the Adaptation Fund (SBI)

Linked Package!•  Mitigation by developing countries: MRV •  REDD (GCF window) •  Links with the Technology Mechanism and Adaptation

Committee •  Registry •  Common Reporting Framework/MRV of support •  Sectoral Approaches: International transport levy •  Markets: link to LCA and KP discussions

Green Climate Fund!•  Top down or bottom up process •  What/how should nations/sub-regions

define country ownership? •  Work on national level processes, direct

accesss modalities •  Work on Board mechanism for stakeholder

engagement and Board Observers •  African Green Fund @ AfDB

Green Climate Fund!

•  Complementarity & Coherence discussion •  Scale discussions •  Location discussions •  Programmatic discussions •  Allocations and nature of support (loans/

grants/leverage) •  Safeguards and fudiciary standards

Way Forward!•  Roads to Busan and Durban do not

intersect; •  Outcome will remain as distinct processes; •  Reclaim space & ownership of climate/aid/

finance discussion; •  Engage with the AGF report and follow-up

process under G20; •  What scope for domestic resource

mobilisation?

Outline  Aims to redress the climate change problem in non-culpable regions & vulnerable countries Based on attempts to quantify the extent of the problem- response cost vs BAU Intention that it is additional to ODA US$100 billion/year by 2020– sources: public & private, bilateral & multilateral, alternative sources of finance (AGF: mix of new public sources, a scaling-up of existing public sources and increased private flows); and 30bn ‘fast start’ finance 2010-2012 Balanced allocation between mitigation and adaptation Multiplicity of funds

!What is Climate Finance?!

!

Forest  Carbon  Partnership  Facility  

Scaled  up  RE  Programme  for  low  income  countries  

Forest  Investment  Programme  

Pilot  Programme  for  Climate  Resilience    

Congo  Basin  Forest  Fund  

Global  Energy  Efficiency  and  RE  Fund  

Strategic  Priority  on  Adapta:on  (pilot  &  demo  projects  for  scaling)  50m  USD;  22  projects,  fully  disbursed  

Designated investment resource

     

Objectives Help developing countries contribute to the overall objectives of the UNFCCC. Both mitigation and adaptation.

Activities Renewable energy; EE; sustainable transport; Adaptation – initial studies, vulnerability assessments and pilot projects (under SPA).

Eligibility Must conform to eligibility criteria set by COP; must be eligible to borrow from the WB.

Funding US$3 billion disbursed to date, mainly mitigation. SPA has spent $50m on 22 projects – predominantly capacity building in vulnerable areas.

Global Environment Facility (GEF) Trust Fund

– CC Focal Area!

     

Global Environment Facility :! Least Developed Countries Fund

(LDCF)!

Objectives" Addresses most urgent and immediate needs of countries whose economic and geophysical characteristics make them especially vulnerable to the impact of climate change.

Activities" Focus on NAPAs: 1.  Preparation – identify priority needs and activities 2.  Implementation – design, develop, implement projects

Eligibility" All LDCs

Funding" 31 contributing countries; $324 million pledged; $ 177m on 47 projects. Co financing mobilised: $550m.

LDCF Project Distribution!

     

Global Environment Facility:! Special Climate Change Fund

(SCCF)!""

Implement long & short term adaptation measures-increase resilience of national development sectors. Catalyst to leverage finance from other sources. Supports adaptation and technology transfer in all developing country parties to the UNFCCC.

Activities" Wide range including WRM; land management; agriculture; health; infrastructure; ecosystems; integrated coastal zone management. Generally capacity building within sectors, implementation of measures.

Eligibility" All non-Annex 1 countries, emphasis on most vulnerable. Focus is on additional costs imposed by CC.

Funding" $180 million pledged; 31 projects: $177M Co-financing mobilised: $840m; 14 contributing countries

SCCF Distribution!

     

World Bank Climate Investment Funds: Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR)!

African pilot countries: Zambia, Mozambique, Niger

– USD 40-60m (including preparation) per country. –  Stage 1 develops a Strategic Program for Climate

Resilience –  Stage 2 implements the SPCR –  Technical assistance to integrate climate

resilience into National Development Plans –  Scaling up public/private sector investments in NDPs

that address climate resilience

Adapta:on  Fund  Established by the Kyoto Protocol (KP) under the UNFCCC to finance concrete adaptation projects and programmes in developing countries. Financed with 2% of the Certified Emission Reduction (CERs) issued for projects of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and other. •  USD 193m (65% CER proceeds, 35% donor contributions)

•  Scale to USD 300-415 million; mid range estimate is USD 356m funded adaptation projects by end of 2012.

•  Structure and criteria necessitates further capacity building: •  Strong evidence base required for proposals

•  Managed by the GEF – with new structure proposed at Copenhagen

•  Under negotiation for over 8 years – but operational  

Adaptation Fund!

Outline  Accessing the Climate Funds!Fund Criteria:! •  General climate change knowledge and

integration to policy and with development plans

•  Project development and management

•  Application procedures

•  Implementing entities enable direct access •  Regional and national implementing agencies

entities & multilaterals: the water sector has opportunity to organise coherent regional institutional arrangements – direct access

•  Strengthening of the evidence base

•  Strengthened capacity to develop competitive funding proposals

Capacity  should  be  

built  in  local  ins:tu:ons  Address  issue  of  domes:c  resource  alloca:on  

Regional challenges: the adaptation imperative!

IPCC,  2007  

1975-1989 1990-2004

Number % Number %

23 18 50 34

Number and percentage of category 4 & 5 cyclones in the South Indian Ocean over the last 30+ years (Source: Webster et al. 2005)

Regional challenges: the adaptation imperative!

Longer duration dry spells (droughts)

More frequent

and intense extreme

rainfalls

Key Message ..... !!

Longer duration heat-waves

Climate change signals!

Spatial Assessment!

•  Southern Africa – shared but widely divergent vulnerabilities – Climate systems – Natural resources and ecosystems – Farming and other land-use system –  Social systems, economic strengths, weaknesses

•  Adaptation planning must be spatially explicit

Exposure  

Sensi:vity  

Adap:ve  capacity  

Poten:al  impact  

Vulnerability  

Spatial anlysis & vulnerability!

2008   2050  

2    analyses  

Exposure  •  Rainfall  variaGon  •  Cyclone  risk  •  Flood  risk  •  Standardised  precip  index  •  Fire  frequency  •  AddiGonal  popn.  density  •  GCM  precip  &  temp    •  Max  temp  change  •  Loss  of  cropland  •  Sea-­‐level  rise  

Sensi:vity  •  %  land  under  irrigaGon  •  Human  use  of  net  primary  

producGvity  •  Crowding  of  agric.  Land  •  Length  of  growing  period  •  Early  soil  moisture  •  Own  food  producGon  sys.  •  Dietary  diversity  •  Water  stress  

X   X  

Vulnerability = exposure x sensitivity!

Spatial Impact Analysis – !!current conditions!  

Spatial Impact Analysis – !!2050!!

Climate Futures!Moderately wetting Significantly drying

Dev

elop

men

t Fu

ture

s!Integrated

  • 6% to 8% growth • 0% to 10% increased rainfall

• 6% to 8% growth • 0% to 15% decreased rainfall

Une

ven   • 3% to 5% growth

• 0% to 10% increased rainfall

• 3% to 5% growth • 0% to 15% decreased rainfall

A scenario-based apporach!

Transboundary Water Assessment & CC!

Climate Change in the Limpopo !•  Geophysical location = highly variable climate, prone to drought; •  High rainfall variability & temperatures = low rainfall conversion to

runoff; •  Core area of atmospheric heating thus agriculture difficult (needs to be

supported by irrigation); •  Exposed to cyclones in the southern Mozambique channel; •  Population growth continues to be rapid; •  Much of the rural population lives in extended villages, with poor levels of

sanitation and supporting infrastructure; •  Mine exploration and mining activities are increasing rapidly – platinum

(on the Eastern and Western limbs of the Bushveld Igneous Complex (BIC), coal measures are increasingly being exploited in the western portion of the Limpopo Basin;

•  Development of coal resources will continue west into Botswana and westwards for decades;

Climate Change in the Limpopo !

•  Water pollution emanating from coal mining in Mpumulanga, urban and industrial pollutants from Gauteng have substantially degraded the quality of the water resource, effectively reducing the water available for other uses;

•  Many rural water supplies fail water quality tests with severe impacts on rural health, already challenged by poverty.

•  Water is the resource limiting growth in the Basin – even mining development is contrained;

•  Irrigation uptake in the province is substantial; •  Several sub-basins are closed (there is no more water to allocate) to

increased allocation •  Groundwater is over-exploited, more so than anywhere else in South

Africa. Consequence: groundwater levels are declining faster than anywhere else.

Transboundary & Futures issues!

•  Because  the  Limpopo  Province  is  bounded  by  three  other  sovereign  states,  the  Province  has  more  than  its  fair  share  of  transboundary  tensions  over  shared  water  resources.    

•  Agreements  over  the  management  of  water  as  part  of  a  climate  change  strategy  will  have  to  take  these  issues  into  account.      

•  Important to examine the impacts of future climate changes in the context development futures

–  Economic development controls demand for resources and influences vulnerability

               

"Global:!•  Influence •  Evidence Regional:!•  Cooperation •  Equity •  Policy (needs evidence

base) •  Institutional

arrangements incl for direct access

Beyond Durban?   Local/Domestic:!"•  Improved agricultural

practices •  Equity •  Policy •  Institutional

arrangements incl for direct access

•  Domestic allocation of resource