How do we communicate in 2020? Astrid Wisse Director Ernst & Young Advisory Telecommunications 15th of February 2012

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The world is changing rapidly

“Spatial View's 3D-Screen adds Glasses-Free 3D Capabilities to 2D Laptops” February 7, 2012

“Cisco: Global cloud traffic will increase 12-fold by 2015” November 29, 2011

“US refuses entry to two Brits because of tweets joking about digging up Marilyn Monroe and destroying America" February 8, 2012

“'Google will know more about you than your partner': Uproar as search giant reveals privacy policy that will allow them to track you on all their product” February 3, 2012

“KLM enables people to chose their flight neighbour through social networks” December 5, 2011

“Hacker group Anonymous published conference call between FBI and Scotland Yard” February 3, 2012

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Scenario planning helps to get more grip on uncertainty

► Scenarios help decision makers to

challenge the ‘official future’.

► Scenarios are external realities, they can not be influenced.

► Scenarios are extreme pictures, meant to stretch mental models.

► Scenarios can be used:

► As a stress test for your current strategy

► To validate new decisions

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The most crucial part of scenario planning is the exploration of the external environment

► The creation of scenarios requires 5 steps: 1. Define the scope 2. Explore the environment 3. Distinguish key uncertainties from

important trends 4. Develop the scenario framework 5. Describe detailed scenarios

► To explore the environment it is important to take an outside-in approach.

► The external environment can be divided in a macro environment and a business environment.

► The forces identified are external and therefore can not be influenced by the organization.

Scenario A Scenario B

Scenario C Scenario D

Uncertainty II

Uncertainty I

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Broad industry views are key for scenario planning, we involved many industry experts

Sherry Turkle (Professor of the Social Studies of Science and Technology at the MIT) “Connectivity offers the illusion of companionship without the demands of friendship”

How do

Consumers communicate in

2020?

Infrastructure and service providers

Content and apps providers &

new start ups

Equipment providers

Media & entertainment

Menno Lanting (Author of Connect) “Borders between consumers and companies fade”

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‘Self-shaping of the physical world within

your own context provides a

shapeable world’

Raimo van der Klein Layar, CEO

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Ricardo Brenna Sony Ericsson, Global Head Research & Intelligence

‘People want to be in control of the internet

space’

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‘On the internet, people who have

less self discipline loose

themselves’

Ned Wiley Axel Springer, Managing Director

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During this Scenario Study we have looked at relevant trends and their relationships

► Explored the environment using different methods.

► Assessed the uncertainty and impact of the different trends.

► Developed a trend complex with relationships between trends.

► Determined the so called key uncertainties in the trend complex.

► The characteristics of a key uncertainty are:

1. A high impact

2. A high uncertainty

3. Central position within the trend complex

Workshops

Interviews

Focal question

Long list of trends

2 Key uncertainties

Desk research

Expl

ore

envi

ronm

ent

Ran

k tre

nds

A B

C D

Visu

aliz

e

Virtualization social

media The cloud

Social

Need for own

identity

Need for safety

Need for more

comfort:

Need for an

experience

Demographics

Generation Z

Aging population

Worries about

security and

privacy

Need for a “personal

guide”

“green”

Connected consumer,

Personalization

Mobile device

Changing interfaces

Co-creation experienc

e center

security solutions

“personal guide”

Frequency scarcity

digital waste

services

variety in content

Privacy

Integration

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This analysis has resulted in 2 key uncertainties: security & privacy and integration of internet & consumer life

Integration of internet and consumer life Fully integrated & seamless

Virtual and physical worlds merge seamlessly together

Fragmented & separated The virtual world is a separate, stand alone world

Reversal of virtualization

Security and privacy Not in control Privacy issues

Internet gangs and identity theft Uncontrolled chaos

In control Strict privacy & security regulation Transparency & approval for data usage Controlled and safe internet

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Combining these two key uncertainties delivers four divergent and challenging scenarios

A

D

Integration of internet and consumer life Fully integrated & seamless

In c

ontro

l Security and privacy

Not in control

B

C Fragmented & separated

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Next steps

► Ernst & Young will present the final scenarios on the 8th of March 2012.

► The next steps for you are: ► Judge how well you are prepared for the future; ► Assess your current strategy; ► Identify blank spots, risks and opportunities; ► Monitor the changes in the external environment.

► Ideally scenario planning should not be a stand alone activity.

► It is essential to monitor the environment frequently.

► Ernst & Young will follow this up with a yearly update of the scenarios.

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From the 8th of March you can visit www.ey.nl to find out more