Air bus global market forecast

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  • 1. Flying smart,thinking big 2009 - 2028

2. True innovation can be difficult to see,but the identification and delivery of technologicalbreakthroughs are critical if the aviation industryis to develop a sustainable future for the spanof this GMF and beyond.This is particularly true in the field of alternativeenergy, so the cover of this years forecastis a graphical representation of oneof 200,000 species of algae availablefor research into aviation bio-fuels thatdo not raise conflicts, such as diverting resourcesfrom food production.The sheer number of possibilities for algaeand the challenges ahead to realise their potential,are useful reminders that resource and timeare arguably more important thanthe original idea when it comes to findingthe best result for all. 3. 2009 - 2028 4. Demand for air travel 12 30 Traffic forecast56 Demand for passenger aircraft 142 Air cargo forecast 154 Summary tables 5. ExecutiveBackgroundUnderlying demand strongOver time, a number of significant developments haveinfluenced passengers and airlines, affecting the shapeand direction of the aviation industry, as well as deter-mining the level of future demand for air transportationaround the world.The latest development has clearly been the recent eco-nomic downturn, which has given everyone in theindustry cause to reassess their business in light ofthe prevailing competitive and operational environment.These include such drivers as fuel price, finance availa-bility and even aircraft product offerings. What forecas-ters must decide is whether these changes significantlyimpact the long-term trends of the industry. The goodnews is that, despite bringing difficulties that can rangefrom falling demand, load factors, yields and profitability,such cycles are generally relatively short lived comparedto the timescales considered for aircraft investment andfleet turnovers. In addition, the industry can be subtlychanged for the better as a result of efficiency improve-ments introduced to beat the downturn. This meansthat when recovery comes, it is generally stronger andStrong demand, benefiting people, innovationguaranteed 6. Summary more far reaching than the downturn.exchange between travellers and regions where econo- There is no doubt that the major reason the industrymic growth could otherwise be limited. has always recovered its upwards trend is the strongWhat is often crucial for all of these elements, is that underlying demand for the benefits that air transport people come face to face, developing and reinforcing brings to the world, its economies and, most impor- trust and gaining the kind of knowledge and understan- tantly, to its people.ding of cultures, individuals, markets and places that can only be gained by physically being there. Real benefits for real people While the cost of air travel in environmental terms is well Innovation for passengers, airlines and the documented, including the 2% contribution to manenvironment made CO2 emissions, little is said on the benefit side of But underlying growth must be balanced with a sustai- this equation. In monetary terms alone, aviation contri-nable future. The last 40 years have seen aircraft fuel butes more than some G20 countries to world Gross burn and emissions reduced by 70% and noise by 75%, Domestic Product (GDP). These benefits are not merely but this is not to say that Airbus, or indeed the rest of the at a macro level; they permeate through the fabric of industry, will sit back for the next 40 years and do 21st Century living, benefiting increasing numbers of nothing. Innovation remains the key and ambitious tar- people from every corner of the globe. Aviation contri- gets have been set with an almost zealous desire to butes to trade, by offering access to more lucrative andimprove fuel burn and resulting CO2 for our two biggest geographically disparate markets; to investment, by concerns, our customers and our world. nurturing internationalisation through greater access to skills and resources; to productivity, by stimulating and encouraging competition, innovation and greater efficiency; and to tourism, by facilitating a commercialGlobal Market Forecast 7 7. The highlights The trafficDespite the economic crisis, markets in the emerging There is no doubt that the financial turmoil of 2008 andeconomic nations are expected to continue to growthe resulting downturn in the world economy, hasover the next 20 years; their economies and demogra- impacted passenger demand and traffic growth in thephic developments both driven by and benefiting from short term. However, over the 2009-2028 period cove-air travel. Continued global liberalisation is giving grea-red by this forecast, the downturn represents a fairlyter market access to airlines and wider choice for pas-short timeframe. Therefore, overall world passengersengers. Low-cost carriers will also continue to growtraffic is expected to increase by 4.7% per annum andaround the world, but particularly in Asia, while the net- the number of frequencies offered on passenger routeswork airlines will benefit from demand on the importantwill more than double. Faced with increased competi-international markets and a wave of new internationaltion and fluctuating fuel costs, airlines have alreadytravel consumers from the emerging countries.achieved considerable productivity gains. Today, veryChanging dynamics, particularly network evolution andfew seats are wasted, with very high load factorsthe role of mega-cities and congestion, are influencingacross most major markets and flows expected oncethe future of aviation. All of these drivers were taken into again as the market recovers over the coming months.consideration when developing this edition of the AirbusGlobal Market Forecast (GMF).When downturns start to bite, as with fuel prices, congestion falls down the list of priority issues for many in the industry. But unfortunately, this means a return to24,951 new passenger and delays, waste and cost as markets recover. This is anfreighter aircraft issue for passengers, airlines and many of the worldsdemand overmost important airports and cities. Any future growth of traffic and frequencies will once again be an increasingthe 2009-2028 period challenge to airport infrastructure and air traffic mana- gement. Using larger aircraft, with their reduced costs24,097New deliveries854 24,951per seat both in terms of cash and CO2, is a common sense solution to congestion. There are already signs of this today, with average aircraft sizes increasing across all categories, from smaller regional aircraft to very largeRecycled Passenger Freighter aircraft. This will result in the average aircraft size increa- 3,134fleetConverted fleet 2,585 sing by as much as 26% over the next 20 years. This GMF assumes that all necessary infrastructure7,147Retired1,306improvements, including those already planned, will be 8,453 undertaken during the forecast period. However, givenPassenger aircraft >100 seatsthe substantial investments and time required to carry out such developments, there is the possibility that not all the changes necessary may be achieved. Combined with the need to reduce seat mile costs to cope with developing competitive and environmental pressures, this could cause average aircraft size to increase even more than currently forecast. Therefore, airlines couldAverage aircraft be forced to acquire more, larger aircraft, across the size will needwhole spectrum of those available, to meet demand efficiently and to fly smarter. to growin the future 8. The fleetThe worlds fleet, which includes both passenger (from As many as 5,802 twin-aisle passenger aircraft will100 seats to very large aircraft) and freighter aircraft, will be required to serve the existing, mainly internationalgrow from 15,750 beginning of 2009 to nearly 32,000 by markets created largely by growth on existing city pairs,2028. At the same time, some 14,442 aircraft from theflows from and within emerging markets and the addi-existing fleet will be replaced by more eco-efficienttion of new routes. Around 1,318 very large passengermodels. Of these, 3,134 will be recycled back into aircraft will be needed to link the 32 dynamic hub cities.passenger service, where they too will replace an olderIt should be no surprise that more than 50% of thegeneration model with another airline. It is also forecast worlds fleet of very large passenger aircraft will be ope-that 2,585 aircraft will be converted to freighters and therated by the airlines in the Asia-Pacific region. With itsremaining 7,417 will be permanently retired or withdrawn huge population increasingly concentrated in impres-from service, with increasing numbers decommissioned sive and vibrant cities, more and more people have thethrough environmentally sensitive programmes, such aseconomic ability as well as the desire to fly among thesethe Airbus PAMELA project. The Airbus forecast conti-destinations.nues to predict that the greatest demand for passengeraircraft will come from airlines in the United States, the Freight traffic is expected to grow at 5.2% per annum.Peoples Republic of China and the United Kingdom, withCombined with fleet renewal, this will create demand forits mix of global, low-cost and charter airlines. Europe will3,439 freighter deliveries, 2,585 of which will come fromreceive 25% of the total, with North America and Asia- conversions and 854 of which will be new generationPacific taking 23% and 31% respectively. In addition, thefactory-built freighters, mainly long-range or regionalworlds airlines will require more than 6,000 smaller air- freighters.craft, either jet or turbo-prop, (with 19 to 100 seats) toserve regional demand, especially in the US and Europe.Overall, this means that by 2028 the worlds airlines will take delivery of 24,951 new passenger and freighterWhile traffic demand will nearly triple, airlines will moreaircraft, worth US$3.1 trillion at cu