Developing an Interactive Atmosphere-Air Pollutant

Forecast System

Jeff McQueen, Youhua Tang, Sarah Lu, Ho-Chun Huang, Dongchul Kim, Pius Lee and Marina Tsidulko

Tom Black, Henry Juang, Zavisa Janjic, Mark Iredell, Geoff DiMegoNWS/NCEP/EMC

Ken Schere and Rohit MathurNOAA/OAR/ARL & EPA

Georg Grell and Steve PeckhamNOAA/OAR/GSD

Roland Draxler, Barbara Stunder and Ariel SteinNOAA/OAR/ARL

Arlindo DaSilva, Mian ChinNASA/GSFC

…

Current Offline AQ Forecast Systems

Pollutant Region Model Emissions

Anthropogenic Chemistry

(O3, experimental aerosols)

CONUS,

O-CONUS

NAM-CMAQ

(12 km, 48 hrs)

NEI 2005 inventories extrapolated for current year

Wild-fire smoke (visible smoke and total concentrations)

CONUS,

O-CONUS

NAM-HYSPLIT

(15 km, 48 hrs)

NESDIS HMS fire locations

USFS BlueSkies emissions

Dust

(Developmental PM,

5 size bins)

Global GFS-GOCART

(100 km, 48 hours)

1 degree land use

Volcanic Ash

(Visible ash plume)

VAAC -DC North American Regions

GFS-HYSPLIT NESDIS volcano location and release height

GEOS-GOCART Analysis AOD

GFS-GOCART Dust concentration forecast

In-Line Chem Advantages

• Consistent: all transport done by meteorology model– Same vertical and horizontal coordinates (no

horizontal and vertical interpolation)– Same physics parameterization for subgrid scale

transport– No interpolation in time

• Easy handling (Data management)• Most efficient (overall CPU costs)

Earth Systems Modeling Framework at NCEP

• NOAA is moving toward placing modeling systems under the multi-agency unified Earth Systems Modeling Framework (ESMF)

• The NCEP Global Forecasting System (GFS) and North American Model (NAM) NMM dynamics and physics have been incorporated into ESMF National Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)

• Code simplicity and clarity are essential so that most users can understand code with relative ease

ESMF Superstructure(component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc)

Application Driver

ESMF* Compliant Global Component System (Iredell/Lu)

* Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC)

GOCART aerosol

chemistry,smoke,

dust, ash

Physics(1,2,3) Coupler

Dynamics(1,2)

•GFS Atmospheric Model Component (AM) import/export state consists of winds, temperature, pressure (surface, midlayer and thickness), and tracers on a reduced Gaussian grid model native Lorenz grid.

•GFS currently requires ESMF 3.0.1; can evolve to 3.1.

•GFS tracer capabilities: advection, diffusion, potentially convective transport, probably not scavenging.

AM

ESMF Superstructure(component definitions, “mpi” communications, etc)

Application Driver

ESMF* Compliant RegionalSystem: NEMS Inline coupling

* Earth System Modeling Framework (NCAR/CISL, NASA/GMAO, Navy (NRL), NCEP/EMC)

CB05/AERO-4 anthro,HYSPLIT/GOCART smoke,

dust, ash emissions

•NMMB Atmospheric Model Component (AM) import/export state consists of winds, temperature, pressure (surface, midlayer and thickness), and tracers on a rotated lat-lon Arakowa B staggerd grid.

•NEMS tracer capabilities: advection, diffusion, convective transport & scavenging, deposition.

Physics(1,2,3)

Dynamics(1,2)

AM

Planned Initial NEMS Pollutant Options

Gas-Phase Aerosols

Global Anthro:EDGAR, GEIA

SimplifiedNO3

GOCART/HYSPLIT Anthro, dust, smoke,sea-salt,volcanic ash

Regional Anthro:SMOKE w/BEIS

CB05, WCHEM AERO-4 anthro

Natural:USFS/HMSWild fires, Volcanic ash

GOCART/HYSPLIT

smoke, dust, ash

Pollutant ComponentEmissionsComponent

minimum= .0000E+00 maximum= .0000E+00 interval= .0000E+00

NP

GM

ID

250. mb tracer

17. 1.2008. 12 UTC + 00060

minimum= .0000E+00 maximum= .0000E+00 interval= .0000E+00

NP

GM

ID

250. mb tracer

17. 1.2008. 12 UTC + 00120

2.5 days 5 days

NMM-B Global InlineTracer TestZavis Janjic NCEP/EMC

minimum= .0000E+00 maximum= .0000E+00 interval= .0000E+00

250. mb tracer

20. 7.2006. 0 UTC + 00000

minimum= .0000E+00 maximum= .0000E+00 interval= .0000E+00

250. mb tracer

20. 7.2006. 0 UTC + 00048

minimum= .0000E+00 maximum= .0000E+00 interval= .0000E+00

250. mb tracer

20. 7.2006. 0 UTC + 00096

48

96

NMM-B Regional InlineTracer TestZavis Janjic & Youhua Tang, NCEP/EMC

NEMS Pollutant Plans

• Loose Coupled: Stand alone chemistry/dispersion model (1-2 years)

– Put CMAQ/GOCART/HYSPLIT into ESMF compatible format– Write interface between atm-chem models as a separate component– NOAH LSM exports to drive chemistry biogenic emission & dry deposition– Radiation parameters exports to chemistry for photolysis computations

• Tight Concurrent Coupled: Unified met-dispersion physics/dynamics (3-5 years)– Test tracer capability for mass consistency (NMMB, GFS)– Create AQ I/O Interface: anthropogenic sources, smoke, ash– Create independent CB05/AERO/GOCART/HYSPLIT subroutines (1-D)

• Pollutant processes: chemistry if any, wet & dry deposition– Transfer species to dynamics coupler for advection, horizontal diffusion– Transfer species to physics: turbulence, convection routines for turbulent

and convective mixing– Transfer aerosol output to radiation and cloud microphysics to allow aerosol

feedbacks on meteorology

Potential Additional Volcanic Ash Focus & Data Needs

• USGS volcano types to improve emission rates• Improved plume height estimation

– Hysplit ensemble minimization– satellite estimates

• Leverage on-going global aerosol data assimilation developments for Volcanic ash

• NCEP GSI 3-D VAR aerosol optical depth assimilation system

• Phase I: Assimilate MODIS, GOES, OMI AOD products• Phase II:AVHRR, MISR, etc and direct radiance assimilation

Operational Upgrades

• Development phase (0-2 years)– Complete model development within NEMS with OAR & NASA and other

research collaborators– Begin retrospective testing to compare results with current operational systems

• Experimental testing ( 2-3 years)– Transition initial NEMS codes to NWS/NCEP operational center– Provide and evaluate real-time experimental forecasts to focus group of

interested forecasters

• Operational Implementation (3 years)– Modified model configuration based on subjective and quantitative evaluations w/

current operational system– Additional resources made available to support operational forecast timing

requirements– Distribution through current VAAC pathways and possibly NDGD and AWIPS