EXPLORING THE WOOLWICH EFFECT

INSTITUTE OF STRATEGIC DIALOGUE/UNIVERSITY OF NOTTINGHAM, JUNE 20 2013

Dr Matthew Goodwin

@GoodwinMJ

Let’s explore three assumptions…

1. Woolwich has triggered an anti-Islam backlash

-Not just numbers, but wider reservoir of hostility?

2. That the public response has been coherent

-But how have different social groups and generations reacted?

3. Woolwich has triggered support for the far right

- Does online social media growth signal broader support?

Data and Methods

• Based on two surveys: (1) November 20-21 2012; (2) within 48 hours of Woolwich

• Survey based on random sample of 1,839 respondents from @YouGov online panel

• Weighted to profile of eligible UK voters on basis of internet access, age, gender,

social class, region, party ID and newspaper readership

• Any biases introduced by method extremely small and offset by larger sample size

• Surveys remain exploratory, should not be viewed as definitive

• Thanks @JoeTwyman and @YouGov

• So what did we find….

At first glance, Woolwich appears to have increased expectations of violent group conflicts….

Agree Neither agree/

disagree

Disagree Don't know

33

20

41

5

40

19

36

4

% agreeing – ‘Violent conflict between white majority and ethnic minorities in Britain is largely inevitable’

Pre-Woolwich Post-Woolwich

N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)

…and as before, these expectations of conflict are linked specifically to Muslim

communities….% agreeing

There will be clash of civilizations between white Brits and SIKHS

There will be clash of civilizations between white Brits and HINDUS

There will be clash of civilizations between white Brits and BLACK

BRITS

There will be clash of civilizations between white Brits and MUSLIMS

12

13

20

50

17

20

25

59

Post-Woolwich Pre-Woolwich

N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)

But at the same time, wider public attitudes toward Muslims held steady after Woolwich (albeit at

worrying levels)…% agreeing

41

62

43 3640

6348

38

Pre-Woolwich Post-Woolwich

N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)

In fact, after Woolwich citizens were more likely to see Muslims as compatible with British way of life…

Net agree Net disagree Don't know

24

48

7

33

40

5

Pre-Woolwich Post-Woolwich

N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)

And while far more overwhelming, people generally stable in views about whether ‘British people of all

races’ get on well together

Net agree Net disagree Don't know

44

25

4

42

27

4

Pre Woolwich Post Woolwich

N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)

So IF we did want to tackle some of this,

where should we be looking?

55

30

3943

36

13

64

41

53 54

43

23

ABC1 C2DE

N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)

…and a clear opportunity in a generational divide…

28

48

19

28

36

2430

51

70

47

6257

38

52

18-24 60 and above

N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)

So, what effect did Woolwich have on the

far right?

Taken from earlier work of M Goodwin, see @GoodwinMJ

But what was the effect of Woolwich on the group?

How much, if anything, do you know about the English Defence League?

N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)

Heard of them and know exactly what

they stand for

Heard of them but unsure what they

stand for

Never heard of them

Don't know

33

42

19

6

42 41

12

4

Pre-Woolwich Post-Woolwich

But did Woolwich fuel direct support for the far right?

How likely would you be to consider joining the EDL?

77

9

1

13

84

61

9

Pre-Woolwich (Oct 20-21) Post-Woolwich (May 23-24)

N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)

… what about indirect sympathy for the group?

Thinking about the EDL, which of these comes closest to your view?

N=1,571 (only asked to those who have heard of the EDL)

Agree with EDL values & methods

Agree with EDL values but not

methods

Do not agree with EDL values or

methods

Don't know

3

21

47

29

3

22

52

23

Pre-Woolwich (Oct 20-21) Post-Woolwich (May 23-24)

Was there broader national support for retaliatory action?

Some people are planning to hold counter-demos against Muslim terrorism. What’s your view?

Asked to a random sample of 912 respondents

20

51

227

The English Defence League is planning to hold counter-demos against Muslim terrorism. What’s

your view?

N=1,839 (YouGov/Goodwin)

20

51

227

17

60

176

Counter-Demos Demos by far right

What does it all mean?

• Picture far more complex, and in some way more positive

• Inconsistency of British public opinion a challenge

• No consistent and sharp shift in attitudes to anti-Islam backlash

• But a generational divide is an opportunity: will we seize it?

• But let’s not kid ourselves – big challenges remain

• A deepening rather than widening of far right support

Thanks. Full slides available at:

@GoodwinMJ