Sustainable extensification:

Breathing new life into

Africa's Sleeping Giant

Mary Ollenburger (WUR,

ICRISAT)

Katrien Descheemaeker (WUR)

Todd Crane (ILRI)

Ken Giller (WUR)

Africa’s Sleeping Giant?

• Guinea Savannah zone has high potential for agriculture-driven

growth (World Bank, 2009)

• Rainfed agriculture can be a pathway from poverty only if

farmers can grow and market high-value crops, or if land

expansion is possible (Harris and Orr 2014)

Rainfall: IFPRI/HarvestChoice,

Borders: FAO, Population density: WorldPop

Case Study: Bougouni, Mali

Map of Mali showing

Bougouni and AR villages

with data

Population

growth/density

• Rainfall 1200 mm/year,

• May-October

• Population density: 26 people

per sq. km.

• Main crops: cotton, maize,

groundnut

• Fertilizer availability tied to

cotton production

Can intensification or extensification of rainfed agriculture

lift farmers in Bougouni out of poverty?

Rainfall: IFPRI/HarvestChoice, Borders: FAO

Population density: WorldPop

Simple scenarios, exploring a solution space

• Many scenarios, using limited data, to quickly explore options

• Input data:

• Household survey at district level for yields, input costs

(AfricaRISING baselines), market survey for crop prices

• Rapid characterization of population of 109 farm

households in 3 villages (crop areas, livestock and

equipment)

• Calculated income from crops and food self-sufficiency for

each farm based on 50th and 90th percentile yields

Scenarios with current crop allocation

• Baseline: 50th percentile yields

• Yield gap reduction: 90th percentile yields

0

10

20

30

40

50

Farms

Cro

p a

rea (

ha

) Crops

Cotton

Groundnut

Maize

Other

Rice

Sorghum

Optimization Scenarios

Maximize gross margins by re-allocating crop areas subject to

constraints:

• Meet household calorie requirements with staple grains

• Maize area < twice cotton area (fertilizer availability

constraint)

• Total cropped area constrained to current area (or a

factor thereof)

1. With 50th percentile yields

2. With 90th percentile yields

3. Including cowpea, with 90th percentile yields

4. Allowing 50% land area expansion with 90th percentile

yields

Results: Crop Area

BaselineOptimization at 90th

percentile yield

Optimization at 90th percentile yield with cowpea

Optimization at 90th percentile yield with land expansion

0

20

40

60

0

20

40

60

Farms

Cro

p a

rea (

ha

) Crops

Cotton

Maize

Groundnut

Sorghum

Rice

Other

Dunanfana

Baseline Optimized

0

5

10

15

Farms

Fra

ction

of h

ouse

ho

ld fo

od

nee

ds

met

by o

wn p

rodu

ction 50%

90%

Optimized 90% with cowpea

Optimized 50%

Optimized 90%

Optimized 90% with land expansion

Results: Food Security

100% of household

calorie requirement

0

500

1000

Farms

Gro

ss m

arg

in f

rom

cro

ps (

US

D)

per

active

hou

seh

old

mem

ber

50%

Optimized 50%

90%

Optimized 90%

Optimized 90% with cowpea

Optimized 90% with land expansion

Results: Gross Margins

$1.25/person/day

poverty level

$2/person/day

poverty level

What can we learn from simple scenarios?

• “Rapid prototyping” of farm

designs to explore potential

• Intensification and cropland

expansion improve food

security, help some farms

move out of extreme poverty

• … but that’s it

• Optimizing dysfunctional

systems vs. system redesign

• Need to consider other

income sources, e.g. livestock

and non-farm income

IFPRI ARBES team

Ousmane Sanogo, Institut d’Economie Rurale

Mouvement Biologique Malienne

ICRISAT Technicians

The McKnight Foundation

Thank You

Africa Research in Sustainable Intensification for the Next Generation

africa-rising.net