Africa's Voices sustainability analysis

Africa's Voices

Social enterprise

sustainability analysis

Andrew Lloyd, Jin Hu, Nathan Smith, Rebecca Janovich (Cambridge Judge

Business School MBA, 2014)

May 2014

Africa's Voices started as an applied research project from Cambridge University...

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• Africa’s Voices leverages radio’s ubiquity, with over 90% of Africans listening regularly in a variety of languages, and prodigious growth in mobile telephony.

• Stations ask questions and prompt debate on air, and Africa’s Voices gathers listener SMS responses and audience demographics.

• This data gives direct and immediate access to a social discussion space in which shared meanings and ideas – and their change over time - can be identified.

• Africa’s Voices uses proprietary analytical methods to derive insight from the data and provide an easy to access view of the responses.

• Africa’s Voices began at Cambridge University as an applied research project that explored optimal modalities for enabling and interpreting hard-to-reach voices in Africa in development and governance discussions.

• Challenging conventional survey-based approaches, researchers have developed new tools for interpreting public opinion as shared and contested ideas expressed in local conversational language.

• Over twoyears, with pilots in radio stations in eight countries, the project’s findings give confidence of the enterprise’s basic architecture and relevance.

Background on Africa's Voices

Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix

Key Challenges

• Can Africa’s Voices become a viable self-sustaining social enterprise?

• What would it need to do and become to achieve it?

…but its future depends on establishing itself on more independent foundations in a challenging environment...

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Kenya is primed for economic growth which could change viable use cases in the mid-term• Pan-African GDP has increased at 4.9% annually between 2000 and 2008• Between 2005 and 2012 Kenyan GDP almost doubled from 18.739 to 34.059 billion

USD

Technology penetration in Kenya favours Africa’s Voices’ platform at this point in time:• Mobile phone usage has increased from 13.8% to 71.17% between 2005 and 2012• 78.1% of rural and 83.1% of urban Kenyans owned a radio (2013)• 93% of Kenyans surveyed reported listening to radio in the past week (2011)

The growing availability of cheap 3G technology is a factor that Africa’s Voices needs to be mindful of for future• Internet usage in Kenya increased from 3.1% in 2005 to 32.1% in 2012

Context


Progress to date

• Project initiated mid-2012• 9 Radio Stations engaged in applied pilot across

Africa• High level business case created in November 2013• Value chain investigation undertaken• Discussions with IBM underway as potential

partner or analytics provider

…however, there is real opportunity in the radio enabled discussion space for the right enterprise

Vision

To be the primary platform that is used to engage, facilitate and understand voices within civil society throughout Sub-Saharan Africa.

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1. Develop the platform with delivery of information as aid, scoping, M&E of aid and service delivery as its initial primary purpose

2. Subsidise the non-market* research and community discussion space using the M&E and info as aid market

3. After reaching a viable size, the market research space becomes viable 4. An upfront investment of $80,000 will be required to build and pilot the platform5. Ongoing expected monthly costs of between $13,000 and $17,000 should be able to be covered

without external funding

Recommendations and Conclusions


Mission

To bring listeners, radio stations and 3rd parties together through useable technology, mutually beneficial relationships and innovative insight, using advanced analytic capabilities developed in Cambridge to interpret data for both practical and pure research purposes.

Values

• To encourage, facilitate and amplify a breadth of voices in public discussion

• To support meaningful social change through information• To analyse real social discussions to deliver public opinion

insight• To innovate through technology and robust analytics • To deliver knowledge products faster than comparable

approaches• To differentiate from conventional polling enterprises

Platform

AV

Radio

Buyers

Current

* Market research is defined as corporate-led marketing mix research for profit

AV could be used to deliver aid into hard to reach areas and measure its effectiveness…

5Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap Appendix

Potential for AV as an aid delivery platform Disaster Relief

Potential Collaborator Analysis

Delivery of information as aid via sponsored shows is not a new idea. However, the AV platform could facilitate it through:• A user interface that allows specific radio stations

to be identified and targeted quickly• A detailed background on the socio demographic

information for each station• The speed which programmes can be set up

• Cross location comparisons• Messaging that can be changed over time to fit

feedback or demographic• Providing a platform for sharing of community

knowledge about the issue and for public discussion thereon

• Detailed reporting that will be available for key stakeholders from the platform

Legend1. Geospatial Location2. SMS data collection3. Interactive Voice System4. Incentivized Responses5. Information outgoing6. Cloud-Based7. Demographics Collected8. Social Media Presence

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Farm Radio International

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Text to Change

Farm Radio International is a platform that disseminates farming information via radio partners throughout Africa in addition to providing a platform for sharing community farming information.

Text to Change is a mobile phone platform that facilitates the sending and receipt of information via telephony between respondents and partners of Text to Change like UNICEF.

Following natural disasters such as the hurricane that hit the Philippines, radio is often the only communication mechanism still running. Rapid response using interactive radio has been demonstrated to be highly effective in this environment.

AV

…it can also be used to measure and evaluate wider aid delivery…

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High Level Financials


Example M&E Partnership Process

Define Initial Scope

Formative Research

Aid Delivery

Evaluation

Corroboration

Evaluation

Measure Effectiveness

1. Aid Spend in Kenya: $2.5bn2. M&E % of Project: 5%3. Calculated M&E Spend in

Kenya: $125m4. Total running cost of AV in first

year in Kenya after startup: $84k5. % of total M&E spend to fund

AV: 0.06%

Potential for AV platform within M&E Benchmarking

The potential in the scoping and M&E space for the AV platform is significant:• NGOs and aid agencies will have broad near instant

access to ask questions• Trends, benchmarking and analytics will facilitate

decision making• Quantitative and qualitative data will allow for a

richer feedback mechanism

• Multiple radio stations can be engaged at the same time with the same question

• Effectiveness can be demonstrated through the analytics and trend analysis

• Performance Reporting will be available for key stakeholders from the platform demonstrating engagement

Aid Agency

Legend1. Geospatial Location2. No-Cost SMS3. Interactive Voice System4. Incentivized Responses5. SMS information outgoing6. Cloud-Based7. Demographics Collected8. Social Media Presence

…this is an area that aid agencies and service delivery firms have found challenging…



Result, effectiveness or impact tracking is something that NGOs struggle with:• Often M&E budgets are squeezed too

tight• M&E is often considered as an

afterthought• Little continuous improvement using

M&E

NGOs Bilateral Agencies Multilateral agencies

Multilateral agencies, such as the World Bank and UNESCO, assign KPIs to their projects:• Measuring these KPIs has been difficult

for the program teams• P4R has highlighted the debate on

quantifiable feedback metrics• Metrics are driving spend

Bilateral aid agencies find M&E challenging and engage 3rd parties to undertake the evaluation and analysis of projects:• Can be anywhere from 10 to 20 days of

time• Used to demonstrate external evaluation

to governments

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Text to Change

Text to Change is a mobile phone platform that facilitates the sending and receipt of information via telephony between respondents and partners of Text to Change like UNICEF.

GeoPoll is a mobile platform that allows customers to survey their 110 million respondents via SMS, the web, or voice.

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GeoPoll

…and there are specific examples where AV would have been beneficial in this space


UNESCO Challenges InfoAsAidChallenges

• The reliability of data obtained through traditional surveys• The ability to measure intangible benefits• The institutionalised methodology that doesn't directly engage

the bottom of the pyramid• Research fatigue on the part of the responders• The breadth of surveys over sub-Saharan Africa as a whole

• Reliable and robust methodology that underpins the analysis• The ability to measure intangible benefits of aid delivery• Engage recipients at the bottom of the pyramid in a free and open

space• Needs to be applicable to either a single small scale site or on a

pan-country scale as required• Engagement to make a difference to overcome the research

fatigue• Speed of implementation to be able to react to demands

• Implementation difficulties during both World Vision Kenya and Save the Children projects

• Technology issues with FrontlineSMS not already recording the SMS

• Measuring the benefits of the project was difficult due to the lack of analysable data

• Training of staff on the ground was very time consuming• Very tight timescales• Rapid scoping of environments on the ground• The limited data that was collected was not analysed and used in

either a monitoring or evaluation context

• Ability to quickly roll out the technology• Easy to use and understand with limited ongoing training• Metrics available without the user being present• Measurement of results based on reliable and robust

methodology

InfoAsAidRequirements

UNESCO Requirements

Miranda Eeles, Project Manager - InfoAsAidJaco Du Toit, Advisor for communications and

infortmation - UNESCO

Building on this foundation, other areas of interest can be targeted and insight gained from the platform…

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Example ResearchPartnership Process

Potential for AV as a Research and Engagement platform Benchmarking

From a community engagement standpoint, the platform delivers the following benefits:• Open but optionally anonymous discussion

space• Allows facilitators information on what other

communities are doing• Socio demographic information will allow for

targeted engagement

As annon-market research platform, AV will give several benefits over standard methods:• The feedback and analytics should be near instant• Using radio and SMS, data can be collected from

hard to reach places using the web• The ability to rapidly iterate hypotheses should be

significantly increased

TheoryResearch

designHypothesis

Measure and collect data

Data Analysis

Findings

AV

1. Estimated survey spend per question per response: $1 - $3

2. Estimated travel cost: 25%-40%3. Travel savings by using AV:

$0.25 – $1.24. Number of question or

responses required to fund AV: 9,300 a month

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Jana

…with research and community engagement being important for a platform with social impact



Research Community Engagement


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Trac FM

• Kenya has been a popular location for development studies in Africa. There is fierce competition in the research space, yet getting reliable data is challenging

• Non-market research actors still employ traditional methodologies. They are time consuming and not always cost effective. However there is a growing trend towards innovative technology use in this space

• Real time data gathering and analysis are difficult to achieve

• Citizen engagement is important for empowering policy discussions in the region. However, it has been challenging to get citizens heard or to participate in public discussions

• Unlike the other three areas there will be no buyer for this use case. The community would stimulate the discussion as opposed to third parties. A long code would be used

• Open community discourse is a difficult topic and needs to be handled with care

Jana is a mobile web-based application that provides customers with a database of respondents willing to answer surveys in exchange for airtime credits

Trac FM is a platform that uses radio broadcasts to promote public engagement while also capturing opinions from participants via SMS

Once significant scale has been achieved, the market research space can be targeted…

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Example Market Research Partnership Process

Potential for AV as a Market Research platform Benchmarking

Market research has historically focused on the creation of representative panels to garner views and opinions. However, AV could be used to potentially add value in this space through:• Allowing self-selecting panels to voice their

opinions and demonstrate engagement• Being able to understand and interpret the rationale

behind views

• Cross location comparisons• Demographics and geographies that can be

targeted through identifying stations• A wide reach to different areas that are not

currently serviced by market research firms• An ability to generate a sentiment index in a

similar way to that of social media

1. Assuming $0.5 per response2. Total running cost of AV in

Kenya after startup: $84k3. Number of responses per day

required to fund AV: 6004. To get to this

potential, significant critical mass would need to be reached

Define objective &

problem

Determine research design

Design Research

Instrument

Sampling & Data

Collection

Analyse Data

Visualise results

AV

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Jana

…care should be taken however to ensure the platform is still considered to be for social impact and change



Catering to MNCs could conflict with the core values of AV:• MNCs are primarily interested in profits

and not with social impact• If listeners perceive conflict of interest

there could be listener disengagement

Corporate Responsibility Focus Ethical Questions

Market research is only one part of AV’s core activities:• AV needs to continue to both passively

monitor AND facilitate public discourse• How do you incentivize people if purely

market research?

Thorny ethical challenges are likely to arise:• Should information collected to facilitate

social change be monetized?• What can legitimately be done with this

information?• An expectation of privacy?


GeoPoll is a mobile platform that allows their customers to survey respondents via SMS, the web, or voice.

Jana is a mobile web-based application that provides customers with a database of respondents willing to answer surveys in exchange for airtime credits

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GeoPoll

The success or failure of Africa's Voices will be in part determined by two key drivers…


Critical Success Drivers and Barriers

In this quadrant, the uptake by radio stations will not be met by

sufficient demand from the buyers. This will cause significant funding

issues.

In this rapid growth

quadrant, significant investment in

people will be required to keep

pace with demand. Being able to

react quickly to demands by both

radio stations and buyers will be

key.

Although uptake in this quadrant is

slow, it is even between stations

and buyers. This will result in

slow but sustainable growth.

Sufficient uptake will be required

to break even however.

In this quadrant, the uptake by

radio stations will be slow. This

will mean that buyers do not have

the breadth of reach required and

so will not use the platform to its

full potential

Potential Barriers to success:• Legislation covering data residency • Branding• Communication of USP• Vernacular language translation• University of Cambridge's participation and role

in the enterprise• Demonstration of capability• response rates to generated content

Enablers:

• Analytics capability• Internet proliferation in radio stations• Incentivisation of radio stations• Staffing of the enterprise

LOW - Uptake of Platform by the buyers - HIGH

LO

W -

Up

take

of

Pla

tfo

rm b

y t

he

radio

stn

s-

HIG

H

9000

11000

13000

15000

17000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Fast Growth

Moderate Growth

…and getting to a successfulposition will not be straightforward…


AV Roadmap and Timeline

Month 1 - 3 Month 4-5 Month 6 Month 7

Develop wire frame and data

model

Proof of concept

development

Engage, map and subscribe radio stations to the platform

Platformlaunched

Three applied pilots

conducted

First commercial pilot

All community radio stations

engaged

Go / No Go Decision to take platform

forward

Analysis of market and current buyer uptake to determine if and where to expand, in which

order

Uptake of Platform by the radio stnsis critical during this period

Uptake of Platform by the buyersis critical during this period

Month 8

Begin engagement of radio stations in 2nd country

Month 9-12

Follow staged on-boarding of radio

stations in 2nd country

Year 2

Leveraging lessons learned and reputational

momentum, onboard next 3 countries

An acute understanding of the M&E market and which countries hold the most value for buyers is critical during this period

12 MonthBurn Rate Analysis

Build PeriodGo/No Go Decision

Minimum Viable Product

Applied Pilot period and Case Study DevelopmentBuild Commenced

Following Go Decision, Enterprise use / revenue generation starts

US$

US$

…and does not come without significant risks and uncertainties…


Mitigation Measures

Risks and uncertainties

Unknown leadership and structure slows development

Engagement of radio stations more

difficult than expected

Envelopment by existing platforms

orNewCo

Cost base significantly higher

than expected

Willingness to pay lower than expected

for buyers

Funding not available to cover

build costs

Cambridge University spin out

difficulties

Listeners cease to engage with

directed radio shows

Turmoil causes development to no longer be viable

3G uptake faster than expected

Legislation changes mean storing SMS data more difficult

Other African countries too

dissimilar

Upfront engagement of radio stations and audiences to demonstrate potential and

prevent envelopmentStrong team in place from

very beginning

Engage with a small number of key partners before build to ensure funding and continued

success

Ensure capability for social media and internet space is designed in from the start

Engage with the university to demonstrate the value of

AV as a standalone enterprise

…but the benefits of being able to target, listen and engage this space are clear to see


Thank you, questions?

Appendices Removed from this version

17Challenges Recommendations Analysis Roadmap AppendixAppendix

Disclaimer


“This work has been undertaken as part of a student educational project and the material should be viewed in this context. The work does not constitute professional advice and no warranties are made regarding the information presented. The Authors, Cambridge Judge Business School and its Faculty do not accept any liability for the consequences of any action taken a result of the work or any recommendations made or inferred.”

Appendix