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VTT TECHNICAL RESEARCH CENTRE OF FINLAND LTD
Killer Methods for Futures Thinking
Futures Specialists Helsinki 22.3.2017Mikko Dufva, VTT oy
[email protected] @mdufva
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What types of methods are
needed in this day and age?
Change is towards complexity and new images of futures needed
Evolution of Methods
Case: Futures of Work
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Methods emerge from specific contexts
Adapted from Kuosa, T., 2011. Evolution of futures studies. Futures, 43(3), 327–336.
Transformative foresight
Prediction thinking
Management thinking
Systems thinking
Critical futures studies
Proactive futures studies
Forecasting ScenariosDelphi Experiential methods
Postnormal times
Causal layered analysis
Strategic foresight
Technology foresight
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Critical futures studies:Unlearning the dominant vision
What assumptions are challenged and what are held?or
How deep do we dig? (cf. Inayatullah: Causal layered analysis)Level Problem Solution
Litany A news headline of the problem What should be done now?
System What are the causes? How to change the system?
Worldview Why is it a problem? How values should change?
Myth What is the story behind the problem? What could be a new story?
Inayatullah, S., 1998. Causal layered analysis: poststructuralism as method. Futures, 30(8), 815–829.
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Postnormal times
“We are entering an era where complexity, chaos and contradictions will become the dominant themes; and uncertainty and ignorance will increase drastically”
Sardar, Z., 2015. Postnormal times revisited. Futures, 67, 26–39.Sardar, Z., 2010. Welcome to postnormal times. Futures, 42(5), 435–444.
VUCA: Volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity TUNA: Turbulence, unexpected uncertainty, novelty, ambiguity Ramirez, R., Wilkinson, A., 2016. Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach. Oxford University Press.
21/03/2017 6Sardar, Z. & Sweeney, J.A., 2016. The Three Tomorrows of Postnormal Times. Futures, 75, 1–13.
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Experiential foresight
Use of art, drama, design, roleplay, gaming etc. to bring futures to life and to explore them
Cuhls, K. & Daheim, C., 2016. Introduction to the Special Issue on “Experiencing Futures.” Futures.Selin, C., 2015. Merging art and design in foresight: Making sense of Emerge. Futures, 70, 24–35.
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Bringing the future to the present
Exhibits from the future Guerrilla futures Immersive
design fiction
http://jfsdigital.org/2017/02/27/reburg-envisioning-circular-futures-through-immersive-design-fiction/
https://futuryst.blogspot.fi/2017/02/adopt-vision-wikileaks-edition.html
http://austinot.com/sxsw-art-installations
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Why experiential and critical foresight?
Current foresight outcomes a) reflect the near future needs of those in power and b) are inadequate to respond to the challenges set by post-normal
times. Experiential and critical foresight methods are more suitable
than “conventional” for a) bringing in new ideas about futures, b) embodying new perceptions of futures and c) capturing multiple perspectives
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Today one killer method from both lineages
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
Drama & Roleplay for
Futures Thinking
Critical futures studies
Experiential foresight
Case: Futures of work
tyontulevaisuus.fi
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Why work is changing?
Digitalization Globalization Aging
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What is the context for the change?
Economic crisis
Crisis of politics
Environmental crisis
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Two discourses on the future of work in Finland
Increasing productivity Redefining work
Work as controlled, linear production
Work as meaningful interaction and problem solving
Focus on taxation, legislation, welfare structures, export…
Focus on ways of working, competences, organisations,
networks
Kolmas sekä-että näkökulma?
Creativity and community as
the bridge?
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What changes? The content of work
From producing things
To joint problem solving
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What changes? Employer
From hierarchical and stable
organisations
To transient and self-organising communities
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What changes? Ways of working
From space and time bound work
To many locations and flexible activity
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What changes? Competence needs
From individual level substance knowledge
To community level metaskills
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What changes? Livelihood
From regular paycheck
To multiple sources of income
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What changes? Economic focus?
From competitiveness and
continuing growth
To increasing sustainability
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What changes? Relationship with society?
From connecting through employment
To societal participation through
collaboration
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Summary: What changes in the future of work?
From producing things to joint problem solvingThe content of work
From space & time bound stable organisations to flexible transient self-organising communitiesWays of working
From individual level substance knowledge to community level metaskillsCompetences
From regular paycheck to multiple sources of incomeLivelihood
From competitiveness to sustainabilityEconomic focus
From connecting through employment to societal participation through collaborationSocietal relations
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Personas from the futures of work
Platform hustler
Official Experi-mentor
Actor Tycoon
NurseDown-shifter
Searching for new direction
Experiments accelerate
Newlyfound communality
Grand-mother
Integrator
Dis-placed
Causal Layered Analysis
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Causal Layered Analysis
“Creating transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures”
Deconstructing the issue one layer at a time:Level Problem Solution
Litany A news headline of the problem What should be done now?
System What are the causes? How to change the system?
Worldview Why is it a problem? How values should change?
Myth What is the story behind the problem? What could be a new story?
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Example of layersLitany
System
Worldview
Myth
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What to look for in each level?
• Over-dramatization, simplification, disconnected images, groundless extrapolations, blaming othersLitany
• Short term history behind the issue, series of interlinked actions, strong problem-solution orientation
System
• Who benefits, what are the values, interests, who is in control?Worldview
• Representative image, works of poetry, literature, sci-fi, movies, religious myths, folk traditionMyth
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CLA assigment
Choose one litany-level claim about the future of work Work your way downwards:
What are the causes and impacts or the system behind the litany? What is the worldview in which the causes and impacts make
sense? What is the underlying myth?
Challenge the layers from the bottom-up What could be an alternative myth? How would that myth change the worldview? How will the causes and impacts be different, what is the new
system? What would be a newspaper headline describing the new system?
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Bring your own methods - questions
What method would you like to share with others? It can be your favorite futures method, a method that you think others need to know about or something that really made you think.
What types of methods futures studies is currently lacking? Where do we need to put our effort?
