Innnovation and Futures Thinking - ISA16 - Cordoba

Innovation and Futures Thinking: Are You Leading or Following?@futurice @toastedric @mobile_rat @janevita

Who are we?

We create digital services for people to love.

• Founded in 2000 • 200+ employees from 18 countries • 8th year in a row profitable growth • YOY growth 30%

Our toolbox

We build delightful digital services.

And help our customers to succeed in digital business.

• Analyzing business• Feeling people

• Mastering technology

Using Future Thinking in Concept Design

Foresight1.

FORESIGHTForeseeing the Future is the ability to forecast what will be needed or is going to happen in the future.

Source: Raymond, 2010, Finpro

FORESIGHT IS NOT

- Predict the future- Direct answers - Market Research or Business Intelligence


FORESIGHT IS- Combine familiar things in new ways - Makes you question your own “truths” - Inspire you to look from other angles - Helps to understand broader concepts- Helps the development of sustainable business - Helps find new business opportunities


FORESIGHT IS- Analyse the same date differently- Identify patterns, similarities - Professional intuition based on experience- Process today’s world to find tomorrow’s opportunities


Martin Raymond, The Future Laboratory

“Working with Futures Thinking is not trying to predict the future, or having

futuristic ideas. Futures Thinking is applying new and emergent cultural

changes, after mapping and projecting these changes in a way that other

people can understand and visualise them.”

WHERE ARE THEY?- Internal Consultants- Consultants and companies who offer

Future Research, Foresight Services and Trend Analysis

About Future Thinking2.

Garlain, 2011

“There’s not a single future, but a whole spectrum of likely futures that

depend on numerous possibilities, depending on decisions… …The aim is to shape our brains and strategic plans to be more flexible

when facing the inevitability of the future.”

Mannermaa, 2004

“The most important thing for Futurologists is presenting as many

alternatives and views as possible, they are the ones who will support the

decisions to be made. ”

Holistic & Multidisciplinary

StatisticsEconomics

Politics

Social Psychology

Philosophy

Culture

History

Antropology

Sociology

FUTURESRESEARCH

Technology

Referência: Aleksi Neuvonen, Demos Helsinki. Slideshare.

DATA TREND ANALYSIS

PATTERN RECOGNITION

INTUITION IMAGINATION

A set of principles and practices that can be applied to solve complex problems and to envision desirable and sustainable ways of action

+

Source: Futures thinking process by Vanessa Miemis

BIG DATA

TREND ANALYSIS

PATTERN RECOGNITION

INTUITION AND IMAGINATION

An iterative process which helps you consider a range of possibilities, probably and preferable outcomes

ASKING THE QUESTION

SCANNINGTHE WORLD

MAPPING POSSIBILITIES

ASKING THE NEXT QUESTION

Source: Futures thinking process by Jamais Cascio

Futurologists create expectations about the people’s and world’s future. Their goal is to support

your efforts on shaping the future.

We can make more informed Business and Design decisions by foreseeing the future

ADAPTIVE ROBUST TRANSFORMATIONAL

Futures Thinking develops the long-range outlook

DESIGN

FUTURETHINKING

21st CENTURY DESIGN NEEDS TO BE

Future Thinking Benefits3.

Source: Sad Topographies

Helps visualizing where we could be in the future

Source: Meristö, Laitinen, 2009


Supports business choosing which risks to take



Simplifies the complex is an easy and digestable way

WORLD’S INFORMATION INSIGHTS AND PLANS



Business flexibility & new business oportunities


Future Thinking & Service Design7.

(Service) Design

Thinking

Futures Research

Inovation

BUSINESSOPPORTUNITY

In 2012, Koskelo & Nousiainen studied the relationship between Service Design and Futures Research.

Innovation was the result

INFORMATION COLLECTION

PESTEAnalysis

INFORMATION PROCESSING

STRUCTURING ALTERNATIVES

FUTURES

SELECTING / EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE

FUTURES

IDENTIFICATIONOF MARKET

NEEDS

CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT,

TESTINGAND REFINEMENT

REALIZATION

Technology Roadmap

Delphi - Analysis

Future table

Cross-Impact Analysis

Time-Series Analysis

Trend Analysis

Scenario working

Futures table

Strategy Working

Alternative courses of actions

Business Potential estimation of scenarios

Competition Analysis

Market orientated futures table

Scenario storylines

SWOT

Market Potential

Scenario based theme specific identification

Concept Drafts

Visualization

Visionary Concepts

Commerciali-zation

Piloting

Timing of market operations and R&D

Cooperation & Networks

FORESIGHT CONCEPTS

FUTURES THINKINGForesight acIvity in the context of innovaIon process (Meristö 2009, as cited in Meristö and LaiInen 2009, 16).

UNDERSTANDING

Empathic Conversations

THINKING GENERATING EXPLAINING FILTERING REALISING OPERATION

Observation Ethnography Probes

Future Scenarios Trend Analysis

Affinity wall Personas Mental Models

Stage Play Storyboard Journey Map

Scenarios

Concepts Prototypes Use Cases

Scenario What If

Service Blueprint Requirements

Roadmapping

Commerciali-zation

Piloting

Timing of market operations and R&D

Cooperation & Networks

RESEARCH CONCEPTS DESIGN OPERATION

Multidisciplinary Processing

Weak Signal exploration Non-Experts

Co-Design Games Drama

Co-Creative Tools

Trend Cards What If

Experience Priorities

Deciding Priorities

Agile Development

Systematic Implementation

SD PROCESS SUPPORTED BY FUTURES RESEARCHSOURCE: MORITZ 2005, 123; EDITED BY KOSKELO AND NOUSIAINEN BASED ON THEIR RESEARCH, 2012

FUTURES THINKING Scenarios PESTE

Context Value Map Personas

Trends Weak Signals

Context Value Map Personas

What if Roadmap

Storytelling Play

Prototype

No constrains: Look far and beyond for alternative and desired contexts

DEFINE & SCOPE

PROCESS & IDEATE

DELIVER & UTILIZE

DESIGN THINKINGEmpathy and concreteness: People driven systems and solutions

Source: La Futura

UNDERSTANDING THINKING GENERATING EXPLAINING FILTERING REALISING OPERATION

INFORMATION COLLECTION

INFORMATION PROCESSING

STRUCTURING ALTERNATIVES

FUTURES

SELECTING / EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE

FUTURES

IDENTIFICATIONOF MARKET

NEEDS

CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT,

TESTINGAND REFINEMENT

REALIZATION

RESEARCH & KNOWLEDGE CREATION INTERPRET & DEVELOP CREATE &

TEST

FUTURES THINKING

SERVICE DESIGN

RESEARCH & FIND ANALYSE & DIGEST CREATE DEFINE

FUTURE THINKINGSERVICE DESIGN

CONTEXT: Scenarios & Possibilities that influence Design choices

Applying Future Thinking in Design4.

RESEARCH AND ANALYSIS

raw data, information……

Understanding the context of the problem and foresee opportunities

CONCEPT DEVELOPMENTBrings a bigger and wider prespective

Exploring Scenario and Possibilities

Short term plan & Big Vision

Development of a road map for the future

CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT

Weak Signals, Black Swans & Trends5.

Examples:Tinder, Facebook, Bimbi, Wearables….

- Your peers laugh at what you told

- “Never going to happen” - People never heard about it,

- As more people speak more about it

more people get engaged

Weak Signals

Source: Hiltunen, 2010

- A rare and unexpected event with huge

social implications

- Can be made by Nature (tsunamis)

- Can be made by Humans (scientific

discoveries)

Black Swans

Source: Xtreme events, 2011

Can be the possible destiny of something new or different that might have a big impact over culture,

society or a specific market.

Raymond, 2009

Trend

A weak signal, behaviour change that becomes more regular, and changes people, products and

ideas overtime.

Trend

Trends can be compulsive, addictive and sometimes surprisingly viral when you least expected.

Trend

Trends Classification

MEGA TRENDSWhere the world is heading

MACRO TRENDSWhat people want

MICRO TRENDSWhat does it means to my business

MICRO TREND

Mass Market Ready

New

Intelligent

Can be structure changing

MACRO TREND

Economies

People

Environment

Society

Several Micro Trends

MEGA TREND

Broad and Profound

Comprehensive and extend to all regions of the world

Affects all actors: - Companies- Individuals- Governments

Takes many years to become perceived

CONNECTED WORLD

DIY ELECTRONICS

ARDUINO; 3D PRINTING

Example

MICRO

CULTURAL CHANGE

Changes in values and attitudes of people

BEHAVIORAL CHANGE

Changes in practices, patterns and models

SIGNALS

First Manifestations

GLOBAL CHANGE

Changes across the globe

MACRO MEGA

OVER TIME

Source: Based on Anu K. Nousiainen research

Trend cards help you to visualise trends. There is a big variety of models and canvases. The best one is the one you and your stakeholders feel comfortable with. They are a great summary for the subjects in a

trend report.

Trend cards

Examples

TREND6

Consumers become Creators

Futurice Oy, 2015

TREND6

Consumers become Creators Customers are becoming the designers. � They will sell customized products to their friends and community. Consumers will care more about what they can do or create.

Futurice Oy, 2015

Customers are becoming the designers and the best design will be perceived as the one which will give the customer the power of creation. � Consumers will not only buy from you but also sell the customized products to their friends and community. Consumers will care less about what they have or buy and more about what they can do or create..

•  85% of the 2014 Best Global Brands have used crowdsourcing in the last 10 years. (eYeka)

•  The Best Global Brands are three times more likely to use crowdsourcing platforms than websites and social media for their crowdsourcing efforts. (eYeka)

•  There is a strong commercial case for personalization - those who are doing it report 14% uplift in sales. (e-consultancy)

!!

Privacy is a big thing when you create customers profile. Retailers need to treat it very seriously. Creepiness – avoid services that jus add extra work to customer, but rather gives an amazing and seamless experience. Find the right blend between customer creation and professional expertise. Always needs to be part of the brand strategy.

New ways and channels to communicate with customers. Know from customers what they want and how much they are involved with your brand. Ideas about new services and also how to get the old ones improved. Create a controlled environment in which creation happens (ikeahackers, Bugatti, etc.)

Trend intro Facts about the trend Challenges Opportunities

Consumers become Creators Trend 6

Futurice Oy, 2015

Living&and&Crea,ng&Virtual&Reali,es&With%the%development%of%superhuman%intelligence,%people%will%begin%crea8ng%virtual%reali8es,%which%will%change%the%way%entertainment%is%experienced%;%There%reali8es%will%be%very%close%to%real%life%experience,%because%of%the%advanced%IT%technology,%and%therefore%very%realis8c%;%People%will%be%part%of%informa8on%networks%that%are%connected%everywhere%and%with%everything%;%By%crea8ng%and%living%virtual%reali8es,%people%can%expand%their%experience%of%life,%and%also%share%their%virtual%reali8es%with%others.%%

Driving&Forces&&&Counter&trends&Technological%development:%born%of%superhuman%intelligence%;%Environmental:%people%s8ll%want%to%experience%things,%but%travelling%will%be%more%dangerous%and%expensive%;%Similar%experiences%can%be%experienced%virtually%;%Entertainment:%Movie%industry%is%already%including%this%subject%to%movies%;%%Poli8cal:%War%;%Health:%Virtual%reali8es%are%found%to%be%harmful?%

People&&&Consump,on&Birth%of%social%media%and%real%life%role%play%games%are%a%beginning%of%this%trend%;%Also%the%accelera8ng%speed%of%technological%development%;%Everyone%will%be%affected%by%the%trend%;%People%will%find%ways%to%deepen%their%lives%through%virtual%reali8es.%It%could%also%become%some%people's%profession%to%create%services%for%virtual%reali8es%or%to%provide%help%to%create%new%virtual%reali8es%;%People%will%share%the%virtual%reali8es%they%created%with%their%friends%and%this%will%become%one%form%of%social%network%of%being%a%human%;%This%trend%will%reduce%the%amount%of%services%used%outside%the%virtual%reali8es%and%therefore%alter%the%targets%of%consump8on%;%People%will%buy%services%to%enhance%their%experiences%in%the%virtual%reali8es.%%

HIGH&speed&of&change&&&

Global&

Living&and&Crea,ng&Virtual&Reali,es%

Google%Glass%

Samsung%%paper%screen%%%

Maturity%&%Speed%%%%&I&&&&&Coverage%&%Context&

hQp://koota8on.com/virtual;reality.html%

Matrix%Movie%

Minority%Report%movie%

Source: SID group content using Trend Tool from 2012, ©Koskelo & Nousiainen

©2015 PSFK Labs

Source: Ixonos Plc

Source: Ixonos Plc

Scenarios6.


Scenarios are a good source of information to support Business and Design decisions for regarding the Future

IDEA

1

Possible Future Scenario

2


3


Today

Inspired by Alstyne, 2010, Hiltunen 2010, Meristö & LaiInen 2009


Scenarios are guesses about the future, some more likely to happen than others


Scenarios are not predictionsScenarios can just be compared and not judged. There’s no better

or worst, but more or less probable.


Scenarios

Stories that can be analysed and

synthesised, built in a sequential order

based on possible futures.

PROBABLE . POSSIBLE . PLAUSIBLE . DESIRED . REALISTIC . INSPIRING


To apply a scenario to your case, you need to contextualise it and analyse it from different prespectives

BUSINESS

DESIGN TECH

7. WORKSHOPYeaah! Finally some action!

Instructions

1. Form groups2. Choose 1 or more trend Cards3. Identify 3 Consumer Needs 4. Ideate 5. Create a poster 6. Create a Customer Journey 7. Write your elevator pitch

8. Present Ideas

SEGMENTS

Private Companies & Businesses

Government & Politics

Economy & Monetization

Media & Entertainment

Science & Technology

Arts & Culture Commerce Health & Well-Being

Travel & Transports

Education

Timeline

Choose Segment

Choose Trend Cards

Identify 3 Consumer Needs

Ideate

Create poster

Create a Customer Journey

Write Elevator Pitch

Present Ideas

10 min

10 min

10 min

30 min

15 min

15 min

15 min

5 min

Choose your trends

BUSINESS

TECH

MARKETING

SOCIAL

FOOD

CIVIC TECH

RETAIL

SOCIETY

MY & MYSELF

Define your consumer needs

Identify at least 3 consumer needs that relate to your area.

This needs should to be addressed by your concept.

BASIC NEEDSWhich deep consumer needs & desires does this trend address?

What new consumer needs, wants and expectations are created bythe changes identified above? Where and how does this trend satisfythem?

Who are other businesses applying this trend? Which (new) customergroups could you applythis trend to?What would you have tochange?

Why is this trend emerging now? What’s changing? How and where could you apply this trend to your business?

Long-Term, Widespread, Macro SHIFTS

Recent, Short-Term, TechnologiesTRIGGERS

CONSUMER TREND CANVASDRIVERS OF CHANGE

TREND :

INNOVATION POTENTIAL

EMERGING COMSUMER EXPECTATIONS INSPIRATION WHO?

BUSINESSIDEA

Source: trendwatching.com | CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

Brainstorming Rules

Defer Judgement Go for Quantity

Encourage Wild Ideas Build on the Ideas of Others

Stay Focused Be Visual