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2014 Election Updates & Insights
2016 Primary Election Briefing
January 5, 2016www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF
2014 Election Updates & Insights
NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and
analysis on candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact
North Carolina’s political landscape.Joe StewartExecutive [email protected]
(919) 614-0520www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF
2014 Election Updates & Insights
Visit www.ncfef.org2016 Almanac NCFEF Almanac app
Events Reports
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF
What is the 2016 election ‘about’ … ?
fear … anxiety … anger
Esquire’s survey on American Rage
Esquire’s survey on American Rage
Surfing Theory of Politics
Key factors in North Carolina 2016 elections
Sen Richard
Burr
2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)
CVB = voters partisan dispositionbased on statewide races 2008 - 2014.
This is the voter party-preferencetopographical map of NC
Suburbs full of ‘swingers’
Other factors: age (esp. Millennials), ethnicity, gender, nativity
Past Election Results @ DMA (courtesy of Glen Bolger, POS)
Charlotte (26%)GOP Dem Other52% 43% 4%53% 45% 2%62% 36% 2%58% 40% 2%52% 47% 1%47% 49% 4%
Other (24%)GOP Dem Other51% 44% 4%54% 45% 1%55% 43% 2%57% 41% 2%46% 53% 1%46% 51% 3%
Triangle (32%)GOP Dem Other
2014 Sen: 42% 55% 3% 2012 Pres: 43% 56% 1% 2012 Gov: 46% 51% 3% 2010 Sen: 47% 51% 2% 2008 Pres: 42% 57% 1% 2008 Sen: 39% 58% 3%
Triad (18%)GOP Dem Other53% 43% 4%54% 45% 1%58% 40% 2%60% 38% 2%52% 47% 1%46% 51% 3%
Urbanization and Partisan Voting Performance
MECK
WAKE
2012
Obama 60.8%
54.5%
Romney 38.3%
44.2%
2000
Gore 48.2%
46.0%
Bush 51.0%
53.1%
1988
Dukakis 40.2%
42.8%
Bush 59.4%
56.9%
YearNC
Population
Growth
2010 9,535,475
2014 9,943,964 +408,489
MECK WAKE
2010 919,628 900,993
2014 1,012,539 998,691
GAIN +92,911 +97,698
North Carolina
Statewide Margin
WakeCountyMargin
Mecklenburg CountyMargin
2000 GOP+373,471
GOP+19,028
GOP+7,157
2004 GOP+435,317
GOP+7415
DEM+11,744
2008 DEM+14,177
DEM+64,623
DEM+99,685
2012 GOP+97,465
DEM+54,006
DEM+100,215
2014Senate
GOP+45,608
DEM+43,797
DEM+55,971
Wide Democratic margins inWake & Mecklenburg counties have moved
North Carolina into the “swing” column.
NC Population Growth Not Even49 NC counties have lost population since
2010(2014 Census Bureau Data)
Estimated NC Voter Reg by Generation
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 422920%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2%4%
8%10%
16%18%
24%26% 27%
22% 23% 25% 25% 26% 26% 25%25% 27%
45% 43%41% 40%
36% 35%33% 32%
33%31%
29%26% 25%
22% 21%18% 17%
13%
Millennials Generation X Baby Boomer SilentDr. Michael BitzerCatawba College
North Carolina 2016 Election Dynamics
President, US Sen, Gov on ballot in ‘battleground’ state = a LOT of political ads (candidates + outside groups) = high turnout?
Turnout: 2000: 59% *2004: 64% *2008: 70% 2012: 68%
Probable election landscape = Urban v. Rural, Suburbs in play
Watch for ‘enthusiasm gap’ = one party’s base party voters dislike their party’s candidate(s) more than the other party’s base voters.
Watch for GOP v GOP Primaries (Establishment v Tea Party)
March 15, 2016 Primary
North Carolina 2016 Primary Dynamics
March 15, 2016 Primary Candidate Filing in Dec 1 – 21
$2 Billion Bond Package on Ballot
What’s the voter turnout profile?
North Carolina 2016 Primary Dynamics
March 15, 2016 Primary Candidate Filing in Dec 1 – 21
$2 Billion Bond Package on Ballot
What’s the voter turnout profile?
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: US Senate
Paul Wright
Larry Holmquis
t
Sen Richard
Burr
GregBrannon
ChrisRey
Deborah Ross
Kevin Griffin
Ernest T. Reeves
Sean Haugh
CVB for US CONGRESS 10 REP – 3 DEMSTRONG DEM (3) LEAN REP (3) STRONG REP (7)
12 Adams*Guilford
3 JonesPitt
13 HoldingWake
10 McHenryGaston
1 ButterfieldWilson
8 HudsonCabarrus
2 EllmersHarnett
5 FoxxWatauga
4 PriceOrange
7 Rouzer*Johnston
6 Walker*Guilford
11 MeadowsMacon
*freshman9 Pittenger
Mecklenburg
CONG DIST CVB CANDIDATES
NC - 1 SD G. K. Butterfield – (I)C. L. Cooke
NC - 2
SR
Renee Ellmers – (I)Jim Duncan
Kay DaleFrank Roche
Tim D'AnnunzioAdam Coker
NC - 3 LR
Walter B. Jones – (I)Phil Law
Taylor GriffinDavid Hurst
NC - 4 SDDavid Price – (I)
Teiji KimballSue Googe
NC - 5 SR
Virginia Foxx – (I)Pattie CurranJosh Brannon
CONG DIST CVB CANDIDATES
NC - 6 SR
B. Mark Walker – (I)Chris HardinJim Roberts
Pete GlidewellBruce Davis
NC - 7 LRDavid Rouzer – (I)
Mark D. OttoJ. Wesley Casteen
NC - 8 LR Richard Hudson – (I)Thomas Mills
NC - 9 SRRobert Pittenger – (I)
George RoucoChristian Cano
NC - 10 SR
Patrick McHenry – (I)Albert L. Wiley, Jr.
Jeffery GregoryAndy Millard
CONG DIST CVB CANDIDATES
NC - 11
SR
Mark Meadows – (I)
Tom Hill
Rick Bryson
NC - 12 SD
Alma Adams – (I)
Gardenia Henley
Juan Antonio Marin, Jr.
Leon Threatt
Ryan Duffie
NC - 13 SR
George Holding – (I)
John P. McNeil
Ron Sanyal
STRONG DEM (34) LEAN DEM (2) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)
29 L. HallDurham
114
FisherBuncombe 54 Reives
Lee118
PresnellYancey
55
BrodyUnion 86 Blackwell
Burke110
HastingsGaston 96 Adams*
Catawba
106
CunninghamMecklenburg 42 Lucas
Cumberland 44 Richardson**Cumberland
49
Pendleton*Wake
14
ClevelandOnslow 82 Pittman
Cabarrus 77 WarrenRowan 69 Arp
Union
102
CarneyMecklenburg 5 Hunter
Hertford COMP (11) 9 Murphy**Pitt
36
DollarWake 15 Shepard
Onslow 98 Bradford*Mecklenburg 13 McElraft
Carteret
31 MichauxDurham 32 Baskerville (NR)
Vance 66 GoodmanRichmond
45
SzokaCumberland
40
AvilaWake
109
BumgardnerGaston 91 Hall**
Stokes 81 Brown (NR)Davidson
33 GillWake 72 Hanes
Forsyth 39 JacksonWake
63
RossAlamance
37
Stam (NR)Wake 26 Daughtry (NR)
Johnston 74 ConradForsyth 87 Robinson
Caldwell
99 MooreMecklenburg
100
Cotham (NR)Mecklenburg 50 Meyer
Orange53
LewisHarnett
62
BlustGuilford 16 Millis
Pender104
Bishop (NR)Mecklenburg 76 Ford
Rowan
38 Lewis HolleyWake 23 Willingham*
Edgecombe 119 QueenHaywood
93
JordanAshe
111
MooreCleveland 83 Johnson
Cabarrus 10 J. BellWayne 95 Fraley
Iredell
60 Brockman*Guilford 47 Graham
Robeson 2 Yarborough*Person 1 Steinburg
Chowan75
LambethForsyth 19 Davis
New Hanover 84 R. TurnerIredell 89 Setzer
Catawba
58 Johnson*Guilford 30 Luebke
Durham 22 Brisson#Bladen
65
JonesRockingham
88
BryanMecklenburg 4 Dixon
Duplin 17 IlerBrunswick 68 Horn
Union
107
AlexanderMecklenburg 43 Floyd
Cumberland 92 JeterMecklenburg 3 Speciale
Craven25
CollinsNash 59 Hardister
Guilford108
TorbettGaston 94 Elmore
Wilkes
56 InskoOrange 21 L. Bell
Sampson 115 Ager*Buncombe
51
Salmon*Harnett
103
BrawleyMecklenburg 61 Faircloth
Guilford105
Schaffer (NR)Mecklenburg 79 Howard
Davie
24Farmer-
ButterfieldWilson
7 RichardsonFranklin 6 Tine (NR)
Dare64
RiddellAlamance 20 Catlin (NR)
New Hanover 52 BolesMoore 97 Saine
Lincoln
48 PierceScotland 18 Hamilton
New Hanover 8 S. MartinWilson
116
B. Turner*Buncombe
112
HagerRutherford
117
McGradyHenderson 85 Dobson
McDowell
71 TerryForsyth 34 G. Martin
Wake 41 Adcock*Wake
35
MaloneWake
113
Whitmire (NR)Transylvania
120
West (NR)Cherokee 73 Zachary*
Yadkin
57 HarrisonGuilford 12 Graham
Lenoir 28 Langdon (NR)Johnston 80 Watford
Davidson
27 WrayNorthampton 11 D. Hall
Wake *freshman **appointedNR = not running in 2016
90 StevensSurry 70 Hurley
Randolph
101
EarleMecklenburg 46 Waddell (NR)
Columbus 67 BurrStanly 78 McNeill
Randolph
CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA
NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA22 HOUSE REPUBLICAN WINNERS
DISTRICT CVB INCUMBENT 2015 LBRHD 004 SR Jimmy Dixon 90.0HD 014 SR George G. Cleveland 75.0HD 019 SR Ted Davis, Jr. 90.0HD 061 SR John Faircloth 90.0HD 062 SR John M. Blust 79.2HD 063 LR Stephen Ross 92.5HD 064 LR Dennis Riddell 90.0HD 068 SR Craig Horn 85.5HD 075 SR Donny C Lambeth 90.0HD 076 SR Carl Ford 76.7HD 079 SR Julia Craven Howard 80.9HD 080 SR Sam Watford 90.0HD 085 SR Josh Dobson 95.0HD 089 SR Mitchell Setzer 77.5HD 096 SR Jay Adams 85.8HD 097 SR Jason R. Saine 90.5HD 098 SR John R. Bradford III 90.0HD 108 SR John A. Torbett 95.0HD 110 SR Kelly Hastings 90.0HD 111 SR Tim Moore 95.0HD 112 SR Mike Hager 95.0HD 117 SR Chuck McGrady 80.8
NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA
19 HOUSE DEMOCRAT WINNERS
DISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015 LBRHD 005 SD Howard J. Hunter III 43.2HD 012 SD George Graham 67.5HD 023 SD Shelly Willingham 31.1HD 029 SD Larry D. Hall 24.1HD 031 SD Mickey Michaux, Jr. 35.8HD 039 SD Darren Jackson 59.2HD 042 SD Marvin W. Lucas 73.0HD 043 SD Elmer Floyd 66.7HD 048 SD Garland E. Pierce 49.2HD 056 SD Verla Insko 19.1HD 057 SD Pricey Harrison 12.0HD 060 SD Cecil Brockman 67.5HD 066 SD Ken Goodman 92.5HD 071 SD Evelyn Terry 38.2HD 072 SD Ed Hanes Jr. 80.9HD 099 SD Rodney W. Moore 80.0HD 102 SD Becky Carney 63.3HD 106 SD Carla Cunningham 47.3HD 114 SD Susan C. Fisher 14.5
HOUSE INCUMBENTS FACING A GENERAL ONLY COMP & LEAN CVB RATINGS - 9 REP & 7 DEM
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBRHD 002 COMP -1,605 Larry Yarborough 85HD 008 COMP 1,861 Susan Martin 90HD 041 COMP 15,176 Gale Adcock 54.2HD 115 COMP 3,778 John Ager 50HD 119 COMP 1,119 Joe Sam Queen 48.3HD 044 LD 1,998 Billy Richardson 50HD 054 LD 5,531 Robert T. Reives II 50HD 001 LR 768 Bob Steinburg 92.5HD 003 LR 368 Michael Speciale 71.7HD 035 LR 14,184 Chris Malone 69.2HD 045 LR 2,902 John Szoka 90HD 049 LR 2,346 Gary Pendleton 66.8HD 065 LR -2,516 Bert Jones 85.8HD 118 LR 508 Michele D. Presnell 85.8HD 051 LR 5,706 Brad Salmon 76.7HD 116 LR 5,296 Brian Turner 63.3
HOUSE INCUMBENTS GENERAL ONLY – STRONG REP CVB RATING 18 REPUBLICANS
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBRHD 013 SR 2,265 Pat McElraft 95.0HD 010 SR 8,137 John R. Bell 92.5HD 015 SR 811 Phillip Shepard 90.0HD 016 SR 7,204 Chris W. Millis 81.7HD 025 SR 830 Jeff Collins 85.5HD 040 SR 13,125 Marilyn Avila 73.9HD 055 SR 683 Mark Brody 85.8HD 059 SR 5,676 Jon Hardister 81.7HD 069 SR 6,387 Dean Arp 90.8HD 070 SR 605 Pat B. Hurley 85.8HD 074 SR 1,963 Debra Conrad 85.8HD 078 SR 611 Allen McNeill 85.8HD 086 SR -161 Hugh Blackwell 85.5HD 088 SR 1,353 Rob Bryan 92.5HD 090 SR -737 Sarah Stevens 90.0HD 094 SR -729 Jeffrey Elmore 85.0HD 103 SR 6,714 Bill Brawley 90.5HD 109 SR 1,476 Dana Bumgardner 77.5
HOUSE INCUMBENTS FACING A GENERAL ONLY – STRONG DEM CVD RATING7 DEMOCRATS
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBR
HD 007 SD -72 Bobbie J. Richardson 44.2
HD 011 SD 5,646 Duane Hall 54.2
HD 018 SD 4,737 Susi Hamilton 68.9
HD 030 SD 11,548 Paul Luebke 11.3
HD 034 SD 2,625 Grier Martin 29.1
HD 038 SD 9,300 Yvonne Lewis Holley 35.8
HD 050 SD 6,127 Graig R. Meyer 51.8
9 HOUSE DEMOCRAT INCUMBENTS FACING A PRIMARY
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT GENERALALSO 2015 LBR
HD 021 SD -8 Larry M. Bell NO 62.5
HD 022 COMP 176 William Brisson NO 90.0
HD 024 SD 1,765 Jean Farmer-Butterfield NO 42.7
HD 027 SD -3,357 Michael H. Wray NO 80.0
HD 033 SD 8,249 Rosa U Gill NO 45.0
HD 047 SD 509 Charles Graham NO 55.8
HD 058 SD 1,995 Ralph C. Johnson NO 52.3
HD 101 SD 10,098 Beverly Miller Earle YES 45.0
HD 107 SD 8,900 Kelly Alexander NO 58.3
14 HOUSE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS FACING A PRIMARY
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT GENERALALSO 2015 LBR
HD 017 SR 7,812 Frank Iler YES 90.0
HD 036 SR 6,399 Nelson Dollar YES 85.8
HD 052 SR 4,640 Jamie Boles NO 90.0
HD 053 LR 7,740 David R. Lewis YES 90.5
HD 067 SR -472 Justin P. Burr YES 81.7
HD 073 SR -437 Lee Zachary NO 95.0
HD 077 SR 140 Harry Warren NO 81.7
HD 082 SR 9,031 Larry G. Pittman YES 69.2
HD 083 SR 4,343 Linda P. Johnson YES 90.0
HD 084 SR 1,890 Rena W. Turner YES 90.0
HD 087 SR -1,545 George S. Robinson NO 87.5
HD 092 COMP 15,160 Charles Jeter YES 86.7
HD 093 LR 1,326 Jonathan C. Jordan YES 81.7
HD 095 SR 5,348 John A. Fraley NO 95.0
OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- LBR OF INC CANDIDATES
HD 006
TINE (U)COMP 238 90.0
Judy JusticeWarren Judge
Arthur WilliamsAshley WoolardBeverly Boswell
HD 020
CATLIN (R)SR 6,747 78.9
Holly Grange
Tammy Covil
HD 026
DAUGHTRY (R)SR 8,091 95.0
Dennis NielsenDonna McDowell White
Rich Nixon
HD 028
LANGDON (R)SR 4,368 85.8
Jimmie M. MassengillPatricia Oliver
Gregory A. DailLarry C. Strickland
Tony BraswellHD 032
B’VILLE (D)SD -1,692 40.8
Gary Lamont Miles SrTerri H. Campbell
Terry Garrison
OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- LBR OF INC CANDIDATES
HD 37
STAM (R)SR 12,046 85.8
Linda Hunt-Williams
Jonathan Graham
HD 46
WADDELL (D)SD -1,093 85.0
Brenden Jones
Tim Benton
Thomas (Tom) Howell Jr
HD 81
R. BROWN (R)SR 663 80.0
Larry W. Potts
Sharon Phillips Pearce
Tyler Lohr Forrest
HD 100
COTHAM (D)SD 1,692 59.3
Billy Maddalon
John Autry
HD 104
BISHOP (R) SR 1,417 85.0
Andy Dulin
Peter Noris
HD 105
SCHAFFER (R)SR 12,855 85.0
Scott Stone
Tim Morgan
Connie Green-Johnson
OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- LBR OF INC CANDIDATES
HD 113
WHITMIRE (R)SR 757 90.0
Cody Henson
Coty James Ferguson
Maureen Mahan Copelof
HD 120
WEST (R)SR -573 95.0
Elliott J. Southworth
Kevin Corbin
*HD 9
B. BROWN (R)LR 3,747 90.0
Brian FarkasWalter E. Gaskins
Greg Murphy*
*HD 91
H’WAY (R)SR 1,050 85.8
Ira (Bubba) Tilley
Kyle Hall*
Robert Knight
CVB for NC SENATE 34 REP – 16 DEMSTRONG DEM (16) COMPETITIVE (4) LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24)
28 RobinsonGuilford
21 ClarkHoke
19 MeredithCumberland
8 RabonBrunswick
50 DavisMacon
24 GunnAlamance
39
Rucho (NR)Mecklenburg
40 Waddell*Mecklenburg
5 DavisGreene
1 CookBeaufort
9 Lee*New Hanover
46 DanielBurke
47 HiseMitchell
31
KrawiecForsyth
38 FordMecklenburg
13 Smith*Robeson
25 McInnis*Richmond
15 Alexander*Wake
27 WadeGuilford
2 SandersonPamlico
44
CurtisLincoln
14 BlueWake
23 FousheeOrange
18 BarefootWake
10 B. JacksonSampson
11Newton
(NR)Wilson
45 Soucek (NR)Watauga
35
TuckerUnion
20 McKissickDurham
22 WoodardDurham
12 RabinHarnett
6 BrownOnslow
48 Apodaca (NR)Henderson
42
Wells*Catawba
4 BryantNash
37 J. JacksonMecklenburg
17 BarringerWake
41 TarteMecklenburg
36 Hartsell (NR)Cabarrus
33
Bingham (NR)Davidson
3Smith-
Ingram*Edgecombe
16 Stein (NR)Wake
26 BergerRockingham
43 HarringtonGaston
30
RandlemanWilkes
32 Lowe*Forsyth
49Van
Duyn*Buncombe
*freshmanNR = not running in 2016
7 PateWayne
34 BrockDavie
29
TillmanRandolph
9 SENATE REPUBLICAN WINNERSDISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015 LBR
SD 06 SR Harry Brown 95.0SD 07 SR Louis M. Pate Jr. 95.0SD 08 LR Bill Rabon 85.9SD 10 LR Brent Jackson 95.0SD 26 SR Phil Berger 95.0SD 29 SR Jerry W. Tillman 90.0SD 34 SR Andrew C Brock 85.8SD 42 SR Andy Wells 90.0SD 43 SR Kathy Harrington 90.0
4 SENATE DEMOCRAT WINNERSDISTRICT CVB CANDIDATE 2015 LBR
SD 03 SD Erica Smith-Ingram 47.8SD 05 SD Don Davis 48.3SD 14 SD Dan Blue 55.0SD 32 SD Paul Lowe Jr. 45.0
NC SENATE 34 REP – 16 DEM
16 SENATE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS FACING A GENERAL ONLY
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBRSD 01 COMP 1,165 Bill Cook 80.0SD 02 SR 3,151 Norman Sanderson 90.0SD 09 LR 13,579 Michael Lee 90.0SD 12 LR 15,450 Ronald Rabin 90.0SD 15 LR 16,411 John Alexander 65.0SD 17 LR 27,427 Tamara Barringer 80.0SD 18 COMP 16,934 Chad Barefoot 90.0SD 19 COMP 5,560 Wesley Meredith 78.9SD 24 SR 4,950 Rick Gunn 95.0SD 25 COMP -2,603 Tom McInnis 90.0SD 27 SR 9,258 Trudy Wade 90.0SD 30 SR -2,189 Shirley Randleman 90.0SD 41 SR 28,598 Jeff Tarte 90.0SD 46 SR -2,428 Warren Daniel 80.5SD 47 SR -1,473 Ralph Hise 85.8SD 50 SR 865 Jim Davis 87.5
7 SENATE DEMOCRAT INCUMBENTS FACING A GENERAL ONLY
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT 2015 LBR
SD 13 SD -553 Jane W. Smith 54.2
SD 20 SD 9,597 Floyd B. McKissick, Jr. 32.5
SD 22 SD 14,891 Mike Woodard 52.3
SD 23 SD 11,812 Valerie P. Foushee 37.2
SD 28 SD 7,432 Gladys A. Robinson 28.6
SD 37 SD 15,790 Jeff Jackson 38.2
SD 49 SD 8,910 Terry Van Duyn 45.0
3 SENATE REPUBLICAN INCUMBENTS FACING A PRIMARY
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- INCUMBENT GENERALALSO
2015 LBR
SD 31 SR 5,819 Joyce Krawiec NO 85.8
SD 35 SR 16,584 Tommy Tucker NO 90.8
SD 44 SR 8,165 David L. Curtis YES 90.0
4 SENATE DEMOCRATS FACING A PRIMARY
SD 04 SD -3,495 Angela R. Bryant YES 45.0
SD 21 SD 5,996 Ben Clark YES 77.5
SD 38 SD 22,663 Joel Ford YES 70.0
SD 40 SD 12,219 Joyce Waddell YES 35.8
OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATEDISTRICT CVB POP +/- LBR OF INC CANDIDATES
SD 11
NEWTON (R)
SR
4,638
79.4
Benton SawreyRick HornerAlbert Pacer
SD 16
STEIN (D)SD 17,905
40.0
Jay ChaudhuriEllis HankinsEric Weaver
SD 33
BINGHAM (R)SR
791
85.8
Cathy DunnJoe D. KennedyEddie Gallimore
Jim Beall Graham
SD 36
HARTSELL (R)SR 14,784
85.5
Andrew W. PlatekRobert Brown
Amy BlakeParish Moffitt
Paul R. NewtonScott C. Aumuller
OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATE
DISTRICT CVB POP +/- LBR OF INC CANDIDATES
SD 39
RUCHO (R)
SR
13,641 83.0
Lloyd Scher
Dan Bishop
SD 45
SOUCEK (R)SR -519 85.0
Deanna Ballard
Ken Boham
Art Sherwood
SD 48
APODACA (R)SR 7,675
95.0
Chuck Edwards
Dennis Justice
Lisa Carpenter Baldwin
Norman Bossert
Partisan Composition & CVBNC General Assembly &
Congressional DelegationStrong REP
Lean REP COMP Lean
DEMStrong DEM
NC House74 – 45 – 1 59 14 11 2 34NC Senate
34 – 16 24 6 4 0 16US
Congress10 – 3
7 3 0 0 3
NC CVB = 0, so statewide races generally tend to be competitive
Suburbs = battleground
2016 = $100+ million in outside spending
Gets ugly quick, stays ugly
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Governor
Cooper
Victory
Strong US Senate
Candidate
Presidential
Candidate Fights for
NC Functioning NC Dem
Party
McCrory
Victory
Voters Positive on
NC Economy
Parity in Outside $ Enthusias
m for Presidenta
l Candidate
NC 2016 Election Dynamics: Exec Branch
GOV
Roy Cooper $3MKen Spaulding $50K
Lon Cecil
Pat McCrory 56.62% $2.4M
Robert Brawley C. K. Moss
LT GOV
Linda Coleman $48K Holly Jones
Robert Wilson $6K Ron Newton
JJSummerel
lDan Forest 50.08%
($247K)
AG OPEN
Sen. Josh Stein $1.1MMarcus W. Williams
Sen. Buck Newton $200KJim O’Neill $94K
INS Wayne Goodwin 51.9% $360K
Mike CauseyRon Pierce
Joe McLaughlinAUD Beth Wood 53.71% $27K Chuck Stuber
SOS Elaine Marshall 53.79% $35K AJ Daoud Michael LaPagliaLAB Charles Meeker $15K Cherie Berry 53.26%
$15K
AGR Walter Smith
Steve Troxler 53.22% $7K
Andy Stevens
SPI
June Atkinson 54.24% $9KHenry J. Pankey
Mark Johnson $105KRosemary Stein J.Wesley
SillsST OPE)
Ron Elmer Dan Blue III Dale Folwell
% =
201
2 re
sults
($) =
cas
h on
han
d as
of J
une
30, 2
015
2016 Election: State Supreme Court
Voters will cast their ballot to to determine whether to
retain Justice Robert H. Edmunds(Guilford)
Linda H. Stephens - D1st Term (Wake)
Phil Berger, Jr.Orange - REP
Bob Hunter - R1st Term [2014]
(Guilford)
Abe JonesWake – DEM
Richard Dietz - R1st Term (Forsyth)
Vince RozierWake – DEM
Valerie Zachary - R1st Term [2015]
(Yadkin)
Rickye McKoy-MitchellMecklenburg – DEM
2016 Election: Court of Appeals
2014 Election Updates & Insights
Questions?
Joe StewartExecutive [email protected]
(919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF