Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Citation preview
Five Myths About the Indian Voter
Milan Vaishnav | March 10, 2014
Five myths?
1. Good economics ≠ good politics2. Regionalism is surging3. Lack of information breeds corruption4. Vote your caste, not cast your vote5. Voters are fed up with dynasties
1. Good economics ≠ good politics
“It’s the economy, stupid!”
A cautionary tale?
“India has not reached a stage where the people would prefer a CEO to a politician to run the government.”
-- K.C. Suri (2004)
Good economics ≠ good politics
Are things changing?
“Since independence, many Indian voters have reflexively ejected politicians from office even when they had compiled decent records in power…Recently, though, Indian voters have started to reward good performance, especially in state-level politics.”
- Arvind Subramanian (2009)
From ‘Jungle Raj’ to ‘Vikaas Raj’
2014 Election issues
Note: Lok Foundation survey (2013); n = 68,516
24.1
22.6
18.8
13.5
6.8
6.65.5
2.1Economic growth
Corruption
Inflation
Changes in personal fam-ily income
Law and order problems
Access to govt services
Strong leadership
Opportunity/respect for caste/religion
Good economics ≠ good politics
Wait a minute….
2. Regionalism is on the rise
Surge in political competition
Single-party majority Coalition govt
Rise of the regions: anarchy or strengthened federalism?
Relative stability in vote share
1. Do regional parties undermine national parties?
2. Who rules the regions?
3. The poster child for “hope”?
The “Nitish” effect
The “Akhilesh” effect
3. Who is transforming governance?
3. Lack of information breeds corruption
An Indian political success story
Anant Singh, three-time member of the Bihar state assembly from Mokama constituency and well-known strongman
Why are there criminals in politics?
The costs of democracy
From wealth to power
Why do party supply criminal candidates?
The merits of money & “muscle”
Criminality as credibility
Voter demand for criminal politicians
4. Vote your caste, not caste your vote
Degree of co-ethnic voting
Coethnic Group co-ethnic0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
14.1%
39.2%
85.9%
60.8%
YesNo
Note: N = 2,045
“Rainbow coalitions” (Bihar 2010)
Social group % vote for NDA
Brahmin 64Bhumihar 48Rajput 68Other Upper Caste 89Yadav 18Kurmi-Koeri 70Other OBC 63Chamars 41Pasi 25Other SC 52Muslim 27Others 47
Source: CSDS (2010)
Upper Caste
OBC
SC
Minorities
Can voters ethnically identify candidates?
Note: Identification is considered accurate if voters identify the correct jati of the candidate. N = 2,045
Misidentified Correctly Identified0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
29.2%
70.8%
Can politicians predict the vote?
Vote intention 2008 vote0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
35.5% 34.5%
64.5% 65.5%
Incorrect guessCorrect guess
Source: Mark Schneider (2014)
Can politicians learn how you voted?
No/rarely Most of the time Always No opinion0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
76.9%
10.2%4.6%
8.4%
Note: N = 2,045
5. Voters are fed up with dynasties
Nehru-Gandhi Inc.
The DMK family tree
“Princelings” in parliament
RLD NCPBJD INC
BSPDMK SP
CPI(M)
JD(U
)BJP
AITC
Shiv
Sena
AIADMKTDP
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 100%
78%
43%38%
33% 33%27% 25%
20% 19%16%
9%
0% 0%
Source: Patrick French
Dynasticism among MPs
20%
80%
2004
Dynastic tiesNo dy-nastic ties
29%
71%
2009
Dynastic tiesNo dy-nastic ties
Source: Kanchan Chandra and Anjali Thomas Bohlken
Hereditary MPs (by age)
<30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 >810%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100% 100%
65%
37%
21%16%
11%
0%
Source: Patrick French
Dynastic preference?
No Yes0
10
20
30
40
50
6051.4
48.6
% p
refe
r to
vote
for d
ynas
tic c
andi
date
Source: Lok Foundation survey. N = 55,538
Why voters like dynasties
Reason Percent
Better at doing politics because it is their occupation
44.6%
Likely to succeed because of greater exposure to politics 41.4%
Makes it easier to deliver services 14.1%
Source: Lok Foundation survey. N = 26,992
And why they do not
Reason Percent
Prevent best candidates from standing for election 38.6%
Not representative of the common man 36.2%
Leads to corruption 25.3%
Source: Lok Foundation survey. N = 28,546
Wrapping up
• We know surprisingly little about what makes Indian voters tick– Much of what we thought we knew turns out to
be wrong (or at least more complicated!)
• New effort: “Lok Surveys”
• Good news: more data brought to bear than ever before for 2014 elections
