Latino voters in Arizona and SB1070

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Political Implications of Immigration in 2010:

Latino Voters in Arizona

Commissioned by

May 14, 2010

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Matt A. Barreto, Ph.D.

[email protected]

909-489-2955

Gary M. Segura, Ph.D.

[email protected]

206-280-5069

Arizona Latino AttitudesArizona Latino Attitudes

© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010

Contact

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• Statewide survey of Latino registered voters in state of Arizona

• Primary aim was to understand Latino views towards Arizona immigration law, 1070

• Also included questions national immigration reform and political parties

• n=402, margin of error +/- 4.9

• Field dates, April 30 – May 5, 2010

• Partnered with Latino politics faculty at Arizona State University (Dr. Rudy Espino), and Northern Arizona University (Dr. Stephen Nuño) for local expertise


© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010

Survey Overview

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We examine 4 topic areas:

1. Reaction to Arizona law

2. National immigration policy

3. Partisan implications

4. Impact on 2010 turnout


Survey Overview

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1. Reaction to the Arizona Law


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© Latino Decisions & NCLR, May 6, 2010 n=402 +/- 4.9

Latino views on 1070

Do you support or oppose Arizona immigration law 1070?

114

12

70

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Stronglyoppose

Somew hat oppose Somew hat support Stronglysupport

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Latinos in comparison


2316

70

81

0

20

40

60

80

100

Latinos Rasmussen - AZ

Oppose Support

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Views by generation status


8279

67

812

17

29

90

0

20

40

60

80

100

1st Gen 2nd Gen 3rd Gen 4th Gen

Oppose Support

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Views by party identification


61

78

10

33

16

86

0

20

40

60

80

100

Dem Rep Indep

Oppose Support

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Support for Arizona Boycott

People should boycott Arizona-based companies or stop doing business with the state to send a message

55

41

0

20

40

60

80

100

Agree Disagree

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Fears about racial profiling

How likely that Latinos who are legal immigrants OR U.S. citizens w ill get stopped or questioned by police?

85

14

0

20

40

60

80

100

Likely Not likely

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Profiling views by generation

Latinos who are legal immigrants OR U.S. citizens will get stopped or questioned by police?

89

81 80

148

17 19

85

0

20

40

60

80

100

1st Gen 2nd Gen 3rd Gen 4th Gen

Likely Not likely

Contact: 909.489.2955

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When deciding who to stop and question, the police w ill primarily choose people because they are Latino

72

27

0

20

40

60

80

100

Agree Disagree

Contact: 909.489.2955

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If most of the immigrants in Arizona where White Europeans, this law would not have been passed

76

21

0

20

40

60

80

100

Agree Disagree

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Hurting relations with police

In the future, I would be less likely to report a crime or volunteer information to the police

47 50

0

20

40

60

80

100

Agree Disagree

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Driving Latinos away?

If you are repeatedly required to prove your U.S. citizenship to law enforcement, would you consider

moving to another state

34

66

0

20

40

60

80

100

Yes No

Contact: 909.489.2955

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• Latino opposition to the new law is overwhelming:– 98% were knowledgeable of the law, SB 1070– Transcends generation and transcends party

• Latino voters see the law as personally threatening:– US citizens and legal immigrants will be targeted;– Racial profiling will be the mechanism of enforcement;– If immigrants were white, there would be no law.

• Majority support for the boycott, though modest.

Summary of Reactionto SB1070


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2. National Immigration Policy


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What do you think are the most important issues that President Obama and the Congress should address over the next year?

Immigration 59%Fix the economy 22%Health Care 17%Create more jobs 13%Education 5%War on terror 4%Banking reform 2%



Most Important Issue

Respondents could select 2 issues

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Support for Policy Reform

What should national policy be towards illegal immigrants?

3

17

60

17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Deport illegalimmigrants

Guest workerprogram

Pathway tocitizenship

Immediatelegalization

Contact: 909.489.2955

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* Combines path to citizenship and immediate legalization categories

What should national policy be towards illegal immigrants?

8578

70 72

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Deport illegalimmigrants

Guest workerprogram

Opportunity forCitizenship*

1st Gen

2nd Gen

3rd Gen

4th Gen

Contact: 909.489.2955

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How important that Congress passes immigration reform before the November 2010 election?

78

136

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Very important Somewhat important Not too important

Contact: 909.489.2955

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How important that Congress passes immigration reform before the November 2010 election?

78

53

61

74

67

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

ArizonaMay 2010

NationalMar 2010

NationalNov 2009

NationalApr 2009

NationalNov 2008

% who said “very important”

Contact: 909.489.2955

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• The Arizona law has radically increased the salience of immigration as an issue;– Immigration is now the #1 issue to Latino voters

• Latino voters overwhelmingly prefer a policy option that includes a path to legalization;

• There is growing impatience with the administration:– Almost four in five voters think there needs to be a bill passed by the

November election.– Support for a national bill is highest we have ever recorded

Summary on National Policy


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3. Partisan Implications and

Consequences


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Political Implications

Which political party do you think is responsible for the new immigration law in Arizona?

2

59

33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Democrats Republicans Both

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Party identification: Arizona Latinos May 2010

12

32

55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Republican Indep / Other Democrat

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Party identification: Arizona Latinos May 2010

12

32

55

20

9

71

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Republican Indep / Other Democrat

With leaners recoded as partisans

Which party do you do you feel closer to?

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Which party do you plan to vote for in upcoming elections for U.S. Congress and Senate in November 2010?

17 19

64

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Republican Undecided Democrat

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Who do you plan to vote for in the upcoming election for Governor of Arizona in November 2010?

12

19

69

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Brewer Undecided Goddard

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

73 73 74

81

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

ArizonaMay 2010

NationalMar 2010

NationalNov 2009

NationalApr 2009

% who approve

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

3135

40

57

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

ArizonaMay 2010

NationalMar 2010

NationalNov 2009

NationalApr 2009

% who strongly approve

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Partisan Fallout

Do you know Obama/McCain position on AZ immigration law?

6

5656

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Favors it Opposes it Favors it Opposes it

Obama McCain

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Partisan Fallout

Combined awareness of Obama/McCain on immigration law

25

19

19

37

0 10 20 30 40 50

Don't know either position

Only know Obama opposes

Only know McCain favors

Know where both stand

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Partisan implications

Do you think the Democrats in Congress are mostly ignoring immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform?

42

36

11

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Ignoring Working Blocking

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Do you think the Republicans in Congress are mostly ignoring immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform?

35

21

36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Contact: 909.489.2955

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Partisan implicationsDo you think the Democrats in Congress are mostly ignoring

immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform?

42

36

11

38

46

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


May

April

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Partisan implicationsDo you think the Democrats in Congress are mostly ignoring

immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform?

42

36

11

38

46

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


May

April

+4 ignoring-10 working

14 point swing in 3 weeks time

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Do you think the Republicans in Congress are mostly ignoring immigration, working to pass reform, or blocking reform?

35

21

36

3128

33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


May

Apr+4 ignoring

-7 working

+3 blocking

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Approve or Disapprove of Obama handling of immigration?

40

4748

45

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Approve Disapprove Approve Disapprove

May April




- 8 approval +2 approval

10 point swing in 3 weeks time

Contact: 909.489.2955

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If immigration reform is not passed before Nov 2010, would you say that is understandable, or going back on a promise?

40 41

54

29

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Understandable Going back Understandable Going back

May 2010 - AZ Nov 2009 - National




-14 understandable

+12 understandable

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Over the past year, do you consider yourself to be more excited or less excited about the Republican Party

11

18

80

62

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

More excited Less excited More excited Less excited

May 2010 - AZ Mar 2010 - National




-69 excited

- 42 excited

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Over the past year, do you consider yourself to be more excited or less excited about the Democratic Party

3538

49

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60






-14 excited

- 2 excited

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Over the past year, do you consider yourself to be more excited or less excited about the Democratic Party

42

52

42

24

0

10

20

30

40

50

60






Among Democrats only

Contact: 909.489.2955

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• A majority of Latino voters blame Republicans for the passage of the new law:– But a third of Latino voters blame both parties;

• A growing number of respondents believe Democrats are ignoring the issue;

• Both parties are paying costs for the issue:– GOP costs more severe, but enthusiasm for Democrats is severely

constrained by perceived inaction.– There is not a knee-jerk swell of support for Democrats, Latinos are

proceeding very cautiously with respect to Democratic support

Summary of Partisan Effects


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• Generic two-party vote is Democratic, but soft:– The undecided signals a weak vote share in November;

• Support for Governor Brewer among Latino voters is a scant 12%;

• Obama approval overall appears stable (73%)– However - the strength of support is weakening;– And, a significant decline in approval for his handling of immigration

• Majority now believe that inaction on immigration before Nov is going back on a campaign promise

• Only 42% of self-identified Democrats are “excited” about what the Democratic party is doing today

Summary of Partisan Effects


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4. Impact on Voting in 2010


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Impact on voting in 2010

How effect your decision to vote in November:Congress passes comprehensive immigration reform

63

9

27

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

More likely to vote Less likely to vote Have no effect

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Impact on voting in 2010

How effect your decision to vote in November:Congress NOT passing comprehensive immigration reform

42

12

41

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

More likely to vote Less likely to vote Have no effect

Contact: 909.489.2955

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Impact on Voting in 2010Among those who follow political news very closely

How enthusiastic are you about voting in November 2010

47

12

34

73

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Understandable Going back on promise

Obama not passing immigration reform before Nov-2010

Very much Not at all

Contact: 909.489.2955

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25

13

53

72

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Ignoring immigration Working on reform

Dems in Congress are ignoring or working on immigration reform


Contact: 909.489.2955

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16

42

64

47

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Republicans to blame Both parties to blame

Which party is responsible for AZ immig law being passed


Contact: 909.489.2955

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• Immigration can significantly affect the 2010 Elections;• Perceptions of Democratic inaction, or the view that

the President has broken his promise on this issue, substantially reduce enthusiasm for voting in Nov

• Affirmative movement on the issue is key to mobilizing the Latino electorate.

• Throughout, Latinos who do not see Dems protecting their interests, are very unlikely to vote in Nov

Summary of Effects on 2010


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• The Arizona statute has moved immigration front and center in the minds of Latino registered voters;– The issue carries high salience across all conceivable

demographics of Latino voters

• The Latino electorate’s response is more sophisticated than some might have expected:– They are suspicious of Democratic and administration commitment on

the issue;– In the absence of action, GOP misbehavior will not be sufficient to

mobilize a Latino voting block, which is currently very energized

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS


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Matt A. Barreto, Ph.D.

[email protected]

909-489-2955

Gary M. Segura, Ph.D.

[email protected]

206-280-5069

Questions…


News & Politics

Latino voters in Arizona and SB1070