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A Presenta*on from The NewMR Behaviour Economics Event
19 April 2012
PROVING BJORK WRONG: How To Take Behavioural Science from Anecdote to AcCon Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer
Event sponsored by Greenbook All copyright owned by The Future Place and the presenters of the material
For more informa>on about Greenbook visit www.greenbookblog.org For more informa>on about NewMR events visit newmr.org
2
Proving Bjork Wrong Tom Ewing NewMR Behavioural Economics Event
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
6
System 1 and System 2 Thinking
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
7
System 1 decision-‐making is faster and less efforGul
System 2
System 1
50 bit/sec
11,000,000 bit/sec Zimmerman, M. (1989) "The Nervous System in the Context of Information Theory".
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
8
Can you tell what it is in the picture?
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
9
“A bat and a ball cost $1.10 in total. The bat costs $1 more than the ball. How much does the ball cost?”
“People are not accustomed to thinking hard, and are oQen content to trust a plausible judgement that quickly comes to mind.”
Daniel
Kahneman, Nobel Prize
Winner
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
10
Human behaviour driven by two decision-‐making Systems, 1 & 2 …
Slow Explicit
Analy*cal EfforGul Cogni*ve
Proposi*onal Conscious
System 2
Fast Implicit
Experien*al Ins*nc*ve Emo*onal Metaphoric Unconscious
System 1
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
11
2
1 Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
DECISION
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
13
Environmental/Architectural Factors
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
14
5:1 1:2
A. North, D. Hargreaves and J. McKendrick (1997)
Sales Sales
Environmental/Architectural Factors
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Jan 11 15
Environmental/Architectural Factors: Surroundings
3.54
1.09
Holland et al (2005)
Ave. number of times cleared crumbs from table
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
16
Environmental/Architectural Factors: Choice Architecture
4
2817
12
100 98 100 100 100 100
86
Denmark
Netherlands UK
Germany
Austria
Belgium
France
Hungary
Poland
Portugal
Sweden
% of drivers donating organs
Johnson & Goldstein (2003)
Tick the box if you want to participate in the organ donor programme
Tick the box if you don’t want to participate in the organ donor programme
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Jan 11 17
Social factors
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
18
Social Factors
Bateson et al, 2006
People pay 2.76 *mes more on average
when eyes are present
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Jan 11 19
Social Factors: Copying/Mimicry
Seated accomplices eating pretzels
Walking accomplices eating pretzels
No accomplice eating pretzels
1/12 1/7 1/6 Proportion of passengers buying pretzels:
Herrmann et al, 2011
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Jan 11 20
Social Factors: Commitment
Burn & Oskamp (1986)
10
5
18
16
12
1613
19
212118
1816
2222
4
1 2 3 4 5 6
% of homes (which claimed not to recycle) recycling after each treatment
Week
Signed declara*on of intent
Communica*on
No treatment (control)
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
21
Personal Factors
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Jan 11 22
Personal Factors: Diversifica*on
Day 1 Day 2 Day 3
Among those selecting on the actual day of viewing 42% 47% 44%
Among those selecting in advance on Day 1 44% 63% 71%
Read et al (1999)
% of ‘Highbrow films’ selected
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Jan 11 23
Personal Factors: Iner*a & Consump*on Momentum
Cheema & Soman (2008)
34
6666
45
5255 55 56
60
60606060
49
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Cumulative number of chocolates eaten
Days from receipt Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK
NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
24
Personal Factors: Cogni*ve Load
Case number across the day
Prop
or*o
n of fa
vourab
le decisions
Danziger et al, 2011
“The performance of more efforGul tasks will collapse under
cogni*ve load.”
Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Prize
Winner
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
DECISION
Poli*cal, Economic Influences
Surroundings Priming
Framing Accessibility Defaults
Cultural Influences
Copying Social Proof Consistency Reciprocity Social
Norms
0 01234567891 01234567892 01234567893 01234567894 01234567895 01234567896 01234567897 01234567898 01234567899 01234567890 0
Knowledge /Educa*onal Influences
EmoJon Visceral States
Habits CogniJve States
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
DECISION
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
27
Thank You
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Q & A
Sue York NewMR
Tom Ewing BrainJuicer
Speaker: Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer, UK NewMR Behavioural Economics Event, 19 April 2012, Session 2
Tom Ewing
Email Tom at [email protected] Read Tom’s blog @ hFp://brianandthejuice.wordpress.com Read Tom’s other blog @ hFp://blackbeardblog.tumblr.com Follow Tom’s tweets at @ hFp://twiFer.com/tomewing
A Presenta*on from The NewMR Behaviour Economics Event
19 April 2012
PROVING BJORK WRONG: How To Take Behavioural Science from Anecdote to AcCon Tom Ewing, BrainJuicer
Event sponsored by Greenbook All copyright owned by The Future Place and the presenters of the material
For more informa>on about Greenbook visit www.greenbookblog.org For more informa>on about NewMR events visit newmr.org