Dr Arjun Rajagopalan

What’s up?Health risks How the numbers can be manipulated

to scare youDon’t do this;

don’t do that …

Dr Arjun Rajagopalan

It’s clear as mud Coffee is goodCoffee is harmful

Cigarettes - no, no! E-cigarettes - OK Obesity is bad

Says who?

Mediterranean dietAtkin’s diet

Forget dieting

Afraid of dying, afraid of living

Dr Arjun Rajagopalan

Risk is not cause For example:

A high level of cholesterol puts you at higher risk for cardiovascular

disorders but is not the cause of the problem.

Not everyone with high levels gets heart attacks and strokes. Some

people with high cholesterol escape heart attacks AND some people with

normal levels get heart attacks.“Lies, damned lies and statistics” Mark Twain

Dr Arjun Rajagopalan

It’s how you see it

Risk is often depicted in relative terms. The numbers look large and eye-catching

. Headlines sound more dramatic when they say

“4 times higher risk” than “6% increase in risk”

Half empty, or half full?

Risk present(100 people)

Risk not present(100 people)

Disease occurs 8 2

Absolute risk = 8% - 2% = 6% (not so scary)

Relative risk = (8/100)/ (2/100) = 4 (scary)4 times (400%) higher likelihood than those without risk

Dr Arjun Rajagopalan

Risk factor reduction cannot be confidently advocated to individuals

for 2 reasons:

Risk is not the same as cause,

Individuals often differ from the population data (“happy mean”) from which risk is calculated.

Risk represent good sense, not guarantee.

Risk works for populations and groups. It may not work for a

given individual.

What are my chances?