Projected Climate Change Impacts for Rhode Island’s Coast: A Summary of the Science

Climate Change Impacts for Rhode Island’s Coast: A Summary of the Science

Staying Afloat: Adapting Waterfront Businesses to Rising Seas and Extreme Storms2014 Ronald C. Baird Sea Grant Science Symposium

Dec. 10. 2014

Austin BeckerAsst. Professor of Coastal Planning, Policy, and Design

University of Rhode Island

Relative Sea Level Change Projections - Gauge: 8452660, Newport, RI(05/01/2014)

USACE/NOAA LowRateUSACE Int, NOAAInt LowNOAA Int High RateUSACE High RateNOAA High Rate

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Overview

• Recent high‐water events around RI–2010 floods–Sandy–A 2014 moon tide

• Historical trends• Climate change projections• STORMTOOLS inundation maps

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2010 – Warwick Sewage Treatment Plant

3Credit: RIDOT

2010 –Warwick Showcase Cinemas

4Credit: RIDOT

2010 – Warwick Mall

5Credit: RIDOT

2010 – I‐95 Warwick

6Credit: RIDOT

2010 ‐ Traffic

7Credit: RIDOT

October 29, 2013

Sandy – Wickford

Credit: Melissa Devine

Sandy – Matunuck

9Credit: Melissa DevineOctober 29, 2013

Sandy – Narragansett

10Credit: CRCOctober 29, 2013

Sandy – Westerly

11Credit: CRCOctober 29, 2013

Sandy – Block Island

12Credit: RIDOTOctober 29, 2013

NK Town Dock‐ August 13, 2014; Photo Credit: M.Devine

2014 – High Tide North Kingstown


2014 – High Tide Wickford


2014 – High Tide Wickford


2014 – High Tide in Wickford

Historic storm surge heights in PVD

Name Date Cat $ Damage Surge height above MLLW

1938 9/21/38 ? 100 17.51944 9/14/44 ? 2 11.7Carol 8/31/54 3 90 16.5Gloria 9/27/85 2 20 9Bob 8/21/91 2 115 10

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HEIGHT NOW

Adapted from: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/

sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8452660%20Newport,%20RIBoothroyd 2013

Rate of Rise 1930-201310.8 +/- .7 inch/100 yr

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http://www.corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm

Sea Level is Rising Fasteralong the Northeast US Coast

Figure 1 from Hotspot of accelerated sea‐level rise on the Atlantic coast of North AmericaAsbury Sallenger et al., 2012 Nature Climate Change doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1597

21Giuliano, Lenny and Valee, David Unpublished Working Pape

Frequency: Large uncertainties remain. Some computer models indicate either reduction (Knutson et al (2013) or increase in TC frequency (Emanuel, 2013). We have very low confidence in projected changes in individual basins.

Tropical Cyclone Projections Due to Climate Change

Intensity: The frequency of the most intense (rare/high‐impact) storms will more likely than not increase by a substantially larger percentage in some basins (Knutson et al (2013), Emanuel (2013), Bender et al (2010).

Rainfall: Rates are likely to increase. The projected magnitude is on the order of +20% (Knutson et al. (2013), Bender et al (2013)

Climate change challenges

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Doubling of Cat 4 and 5 tropical storms

Inland flooding

1‐in‐100 year storm event of today

1‐in‐3 year storm event of 2100

Sea levels to rise 0.75 – 1.9 meters by 2100

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http://www.cargolaw.com/2008nightmare_jaxcrane.html

Photograph: Guy Reynolds/Dallas Morning News/AP

(Bender et al. 2010; Grinsted et al. 2013; Rahmstorf 2010; Emanuel 2013; IPCC 2012; Tebaldi et al. 2012)



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STORM TOOLS Simplified Flooding Web Based Mapping Viewer Access

http://edc.maps.arcgis.com/home/Type in “scaled SLR” in the search window to connect

to the maps

•25, 50, 100 year recurrence (probability) of flooding based on historic record•High Tides plus 1,2,3, 5 foot SLR•Storm events plus 2’ of SLR

Barrington, 100 Acre Cove: 100 Year Flood, 5’ SLR

STORM TOOLS Simplified Flooding Web Based Mapping Viewer Access

http://edc.maps.arcgis.com/home/Type in “scaled SLR” in the search window to connect

to the maps

Contacts for STORM TOOLS:

Chris Damon, URI Environmental Data Center, [email protected]

Malcolm Spaulding, URI Ocean Engineering, [email protected]

Austin [email protected]

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With thanks to: Isaac Ginnis, Malcolm Spaulding, Jon Boothroyd, Clara Rubin, Pam Rubinoff, Teresa Crean

21st Century Climate Warming Projected Changes in Atlantic Hurricane Frequency

Colored bars show changes for the18 model CMIP3 ensemble (27 seasons); dots show range of changes across 4 individual CMIP models (13 seasons).

Cat 4+5 frequency: 81% increase, or 10% per decade

Source: Bender et al., Science, 2010.

Estimated net impact of these changes on damage potential: +28%

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36MOMS‐ Cat 4 storm with 1.52m (5 ft) tides (SLR)

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PetroleumFacilities

WastewaterTreatment Plant

LPGFacility