Test Gearbox, Bearing & Gear Life LIVE on 14,000 Wind Turbines

PowerPoint Presentation

Test Gearbox, Bearing & Gear Life LIVE on 14,000 Wind Turbines

Natalie HilsManager of Revenue [email protected]

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Sentient Sciences Webinar Series

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Webinar Instructions

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Introductions

Edward WagnerChief Digital [email protected] 781.929.9295Dr. Raja PulikolluChief Materials Scientist [email protected] HilsManager Revenue [email protected]

Whos on This Webinar?Test Gearbox, Bearing & Gear Life LIVE on 14,000 Wind Turbines

Ed/Jennifer

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Test Gearbox, Bearing & Gear Life LIVE on 14,000 Wind TurbinesSentient Science Funded $25M by Worlds Largest OperatorUniquely built with operators to be a Trusted 3rd Party

Ed/Jennifer

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Materials Science-based approached to understanding performance and damageMust less overhead and less dataCalculates Remaining Useful Life (RUL) and Recommends Options to Extend Life. Simulates what if scenarios to optimize performance. Enables efficient Asset Management.Reduces the Time and Cost of Physical Design Testing

New Prognostic Solution to Predict FailuresTest Gearbox, Bearing & Gear Life LIVE on 14,000 Wind TurbinesExtend the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) through Prognostics

Ed/Jennifer Sentient knows when cracks form and expand before anyone. We specialize in knowing when something is going to fail before it does, we can tell the operator so they can make decisions before the failure period.

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Sentient Science Family

Worlds Most Tested ProductsProducts with the Lowest Cost of Operation

Ed/Jennifer Sentient now has contracts with many of the large operators. We are in other areas as well. A lot of areas where the suppliers want to be. The customers are coming to us to get the worlds most tested products or for the lowest cost of operation. If you want any of the case studies or the work we are doing reach us.

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How We Make a Materials-Based Prognostics Model

1) DigitalClone SystemLoads, Requirements & System Life

2) DigitalClone MaterialCharacterize & Create Microstructure Model3) DigitalClone Component Friction, Wear & Lubrication Surface Treatments

5) DigitalClone Component Predict Component Failure Mode/Failure Life4) DigitalClone Component Simulate Stress in Microstructure to Predict Crack Initiation & Propagation6) DigitalClone Live Output Model:Predict-Acquire-Confirm-Control


Raja Not technical review 10

Gearbox Health with Less OverheadCreate a multi-physics model to test the life and performance of a specific component under sensitivity studiesBuild a digital model and then run simulationsManage by exception by only focusing on changes to predictionsSoftware

VS.PrognosticsDiagnosticsNO CAPEX / $31,000 in development costs$3.5M CAPEX / $323,000in development costs


DigitalClone Materials-Based Computational Testing (SaaS)

DigitalClone Live for Operators Prognostics models Interfaced with field assets

DigitalClone Live for SuppliersOperators Interfaced with Suppliers

Sentient Science ProductsTest Gearbox, Bearing & Gear Life LIVE on 14,000 Wind Turbines

Ed/Jennifer Core DigitalClone simulator Materials based computational simulatior that allows us to do testing better faster and cheaper. Live: hooked up to fielded assets Supplier: available for supplier community

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DigitalClone Live for Operators

Site 1Site 2Site 3Site 4Site 5Site 6Site 7Site 8Fleet 1


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Individual Site Worst to Best Ranking

Site 1Site 2

Fleet 1

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DigitalClone Live for OperatorsNote: Clipper GBX Example

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As Is

Quantify ROI Impact of: Lubrication change, partial de-rating, surface treatment

Prognostics allows you to quantify what-if scenarios to extend RUL.To BeYears Until Gearbox FailureYears Until Gearbox FailureTest Gearbox, Bearing & Gear Life LIVE on 14,000 Wind TurbinesCase Study: Bearing Performance Comparison for Wind Turbine Gearbox

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Supplier 1Supplier 2Supplier 3Supplier 45 years10 years15 years20 yearsDigitalClone prognostic modeling applied to to 1.5 MW gearboxes

DigitalClone predicts an increase in O&M costs in the next 6 years

Operators take actions to reduce this O&M cost increase with dynamic models to enable turbine life extension from:

Optimizing Uptower Component ReplacementsGearbox Upgrades and Operational Changes (Lubricants, Derate/Uprate)Major Component Long Lead Time PlanningScheduled versus Unscheduled MaintenanceEvaluate New Gearbox and Components Life Extension before ProcurementCase Study: 1.5 MW Fleet Failure Rate PredictionsGBX Supplier Differentiation

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Case Study: 1.5 MW Gearbox Critical Components List The prognostic model showed most of the 1.5 MW wind turbine gearbox failures are due to bearings:Planetary bearingsLow Speed Intermediate Shaft (LSIS) bearingsHigh Speed Shaft (HSS) bearings

Secondary damage due to misalignment and bearing pitting/spalling are:Planetary Gear/Sun GearLow Speed Shaft and Intermediate GearHigh Speed Shaft (HSS) Pinion and Intermediate Speed ShaftRing Gear

Gear teeth loss

Forces on Example Case Planet Carrier Bearing

Bearing Play

RajaSpecific outcome case of the critical components on the GE 1.5. 19

For Wind OperatorsWhat if we gave you 18 months visibility to the failure rate of your wind assets and critical components, would you?Do a better job budgeting your O&M spendWork more closely with your suppliers to get better pricing & delivery Take advantage of your suppliers Jump for joy !

Question #1

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Per Asset GBX system and critical components lifing assessment and options for life extension

Ranking Fleet-wide GBX assets worst to best (whats not on your watch list?)

RankingFleet-wide GBXcandidates for Up-tower component replacement

Ranking Fleet-wide GBX candidates for de-rating to extend GBX life, calculated power levels and ROI

Per Asset GBX as-is BOM (from Maximo or other) and to-be BOM based on life extension recommendations

5 year budgeting plan, based on data above, to estimate spend per siteDashboards on Fleet Health Per Operator

Ed/Jennifer DigitalClone Live comes with 6 dashboards. First, the per asset gearbox. What is the critical life and the lifing assessment for lifing extension. 2- 3- if you can do up-tower you wouldnt change out the entire gearbox 4- extend by derating 5-What is the optimal BOM based on life extension

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What is the Aggregate Demand across Operators (de-identified) ?What is the gearbox replacement plan over the network What is the uptower component replacement plan over the networkWhat bearing sets are failing over the network What components are over and under performing for design and cost optimization

What are the Gearbox Failure rates?

How can I Test my Component or Service Across the DigitalClone Live Network?

DigitalClone Live Network

Ed/Jennifer Bring in suppliers to meet the demand of the operators 22

Extending DigitalClone to Suppliers

OperatorsAggregate Demand

Demand Matched with Supply(Trusted 3rd Party)

Efficient Supply Access

Testing within the Operators environments

Ed/JenniferOperators represent demand. We can aggregate the demand. DigitalClone matches the demand with the supply, let the best supplier win Suppliers get access to the operators through DigitalClone 23


What We Know

What Are the Critical Components Effecting Gearbox LifeWhat are the components that may be overdesigned

Raja 9 months before we see damage - MTOD24

DigitalClone Live for Suppliers

What We Know

We know the major design variables effecting component performanceWe know how to test your component or service for a specific operator or across the network

Planetary Bearing TEST NAME 003

PLANETARY BEARING

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What We Know

We know how to compare competing designs

PLANETARY BEARING

RajaComparison studies on performance curves for different suppliers

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Planetary Bearing

1.22

1.56

RajaAssign prices to the supply components 27

DigitalClone Live for SuppliersTest Gearbox, Bearing & Gear Life LIVE on 14,000 Wind Turbines

Planetary Bearing

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1.56

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Operator Presented with Buy on Life PortalTest Gearbox, Bearing & Gear Life LIVE on 14,000 Wind Turbines

Planetary Bearing | Replacement Options GE 1.5 SLE Winergy 4410.2

Timken Planetary Bearing

SKF- Planetary Bearing

Schaeffler - Planetary Bearing

LS - Planetary Bearing

FKG - Planetary Bearing

C&U - Planetary Bearing

Planetary BRG

GE 1.5 SLE Winergy 4410.2

RajaNow present the various supply options to the operator in terms of price and life Can now buy bearings on life & price 29

Operator Replaces Component and Tests Updated ConfigurationTest Gearbox, Bearing & Gear Life LIVE on 14,000 Wind Turbines

GE 1.5 SLE Winergy 4410.2

GE 1.5 SLE Winergy 4410.2 | WWF1-S54

RajaUpdate the BOM within the product to validate we are getting longer life at the GBX level 30

For suppliers What if we gave you the demand forecasts for your components and systems over 5 years, would youCreate better pricing programs for your customers Allow more competition to meet marketing demand Fire some sales people Create better products to meet customers lifing demands Jump for joy! Question #2Test Gearbox, Bearing & Gear Life LIVE on 14,000 Wind Turbines

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Demand Forecasting Access to the Sentient Network Match Gearbox systems and Uptower Component Replacements Offerings to Operator Demand (across 14,000 wind assets)

Connect in SupplyPresent Supplier Offerings within DigitalClone Live Network as a lide extension optionImprove Supplier Cost of Sales Per Operator Buy on LifeCompete on a Cost per Month Basis

Provide Custom High Margin Products and Services

Sentinets Supplier Program Test Gearbox, Bearing & Gear Life LIVE on 14,000 Wind Turbines

Ed/Jennifer Sentient has a supplier program where we allow the suppliers to life their components within our network to show those components within the operator community. 14,000 wind assets. We can connect you with supply present your offerings within network and lower cost of engagements. 32

Test Gearbox, Bearing & Gear Life LIVE on 14,000 Wind TurbinesExtending DigitalClone to Suppliers

We have 14000 assets under contract and expect 30000 by end of 2016

We have the system and components demand forecast data across the base (de-identified)

We are engaging suppliers to life their components to be available to operators within DCL

OperatorSupplierDigitalClone

Ed/Jennifer We represent the operators. We are lifing their assets and now we have contracts for 14,000, we expect it to be 30,000 by the end of 2016. We are the keepers of the information across the wind industry. DigitalClone to match supply and demand.33

DigitalClone Live for Apache ASTRO Demonstrator

Ed/Jennifer We dont just do this in wind. We are in industrial, aerospace pedigree. 34

Product Design Example: Boeing Next Generation Apache Drive Systems

Load CaseWeibull, Life/EtaWeibull, Slope300 HPRun-outRun-out1021 HP5.14E+071.721379 HP1.26E+073.322042 HP 7.49E+063.841731 HP2.97E+064.28

Ed/Jennifer Multiyear program with Boeing for example.35

See you soonThank you! January 20thThe Rumpelstiltskin Effect: Turning Wind Data into Gold

How would you re-invest O&M savings if you could drive the cost of gearbox maintenance down 36

Thank you for joining.Have a Very Happy Holiday Season!


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When will Sentient be in Europe for meetings? ED What gearboxes are available for component testing? RAJADo you support lubrication and additive testing in your models? RAJA Do I have to pay to access the gearbox failure rate data? EDHow does your model handle surface finishing RAJA

Questions Test Gearbox, Bearing & Gear Life LIVE on 14,000 Wind Turbines

Engineering

Test Gearbox, Bearing & Gear Life LIVE on 14,000 Wind Turbines