Spatial representation of data in Urban Planning and Design

11/29/10

Challenge the future Delft University of Technology

Quantitative Methods of Research Research Methods for Urban Planners and Designers Roberto Rocco, Urbanism

Data, Statistics and Spatial Representation

Data, statistics and how to represent them spatially!


Data, statistics and how to represent them spatially!

For a fact based view of the world

(Hans Rosling)


The Science of Great Numbers

Statistics is a mathematical science

pertaining to the collection, analysis,

interpretation or explanation, and

presentation of data

Understanding Society


Census X Statistics

Data collection only is not exactly

statistics.

Statistics is about understanding

trends and their evolution through

periods of time using data.

Measuring Society X Interpreting society


Population measures

Population measures (birth and death

rates) were the major preoccupation

of early quantifiers of society.

Measuring Society


The origin of the name: Statistik Although census have been around since antiquity,

the science of understanding trends, foreseeing

outcomes and explaining societal movements

through numbers is relatively new.


The origin of the name: Statistik The study of ‘ social numbers’ needed a name. In

1749, the German scholar Gottfried Achenwall

suggested that since this science dealt with the

natural ‘states’ of society (rather than ‘laws’) , it

should be called Statistik.


Modern sources for data

• The Census (CBS): several kinds of census

• Revenue (Belastingdienst)

• Commercial associations (KvK)

• Municipalities and ministries (former VROM,

Traffic, Housing, Green , Pollution, Water, etc)

• Internet is not a source: it is a means. Where in the

internet? (source = institution/publisher/author)


The World Population in 2008 Source: CIA World Fact Book In this example, we deal with the visualization of raw numbers. No ‘trends’ are described.

6,707 973 4,054 732 577 337 34.3

World Africa Asia EuropeLatinAmerica

NorthernAmerica Oceania


Graphic representation Immediate reading Here, the same numbers are presented in a graphical, audience friendly way. Explaining these numbers is made easier by dealing with graphic representation. Excel is a good tool to achieve this.

0 2,0004,0006,000

World

Africa

Asia

Europe

LatinAmerica*

NorthernAmerica*

Oceania

WorldAfricaAsiaEuropeLatinAmerica*NorthernAmerica*Oceania


World Population by Country Source: CIA World Fact Book

Here, numbers are pegged to territorial units. These units are too big to give us any idea about real densities, but this map informs us about absolute numbers.


Evolution of World Population between 1750 and 2150 Source: World Bank, 2009. Here, the progression of world population is shown. There is a possibility to understand this progression through absolute numbers through TIME and therefore to identify possible trends and ‘project’ numbers into the future (estimating).

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Population 791 978 1262 1650 2521 5978 6707 8909 9746

Year 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1999 2008 2050 2150

791 978 1262 1650

2521

5978 6707

8909

9746

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000


What is the meaning of life? It is all about correlations

The meaning

of life is 42. Here, we show an example of uncorrelated data. The meaning of life is 14 in relation to what? But whose life are we talking about? The question was not well formulated in the first place.


The answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe and Everything

• The number 42 is in the novel ‘The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy’ by Douglas Adams.

• The Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life, the Universe, and Everything is calculated by an enormous supercomputer over a period of 7.5 million years to be 42. Unfortunately no one knows what the correlations are (42 what?)


Population Growth Rates Source: CIA World Fact Book Trends and progressions can also be represented in spatial units. Here we see which countries are growing in terms of total population, which ones are stable and which are shrinking.


Change in city population in Northern Europe 1985-1995 Source: Nordregio


NL population growth by municipality 2007-2025 (prognosis) Source: CBS


Population density per square mile (2.6 sq km) Interactive http://www.time.com/time/covers/20061030/where_we_live/


Indian Population Growth Rate GIS This is a ‘classic’ example of GIS use. Here data on population growth is pegged to Indian districts to show intensity of growth represented by colours. The legenda is there to indicate units. Source: gisdevelopment.net


The science of trends and probabilities

The analysis of social data over

extended periods of time can give us

indications on trends and

probabilities, but never certainties.

Undersanding where society is going It is possible to measure some social processes. The science of big large numbers informs us about the behaviour of large numbers of people, but not about the behaviour of individuals. It is also not an ‘exact’ science, in the sense that results are inferred, but they are not mathematical certainties.


Spatializing Data

One of the great ‘leaps forward’ in statistics was

the pegging of data to space, generally in the

form of maps.

Understanding society and space


Spatializing Data

The correlation of space with social processes has

revealed behavioral patterns and social processes

that are simultaneously defining and defined by

space.

An iterative relationship


John Snow: The London Cholera Epidemic of 1854

Published by C.F. Cheffins, Lith, Southhampton Buildings, London, England, 1854 in Snow, John. On the Mode of

Communication of Cholera, 2nd Ed, John Churchill, New Burlington Street, London, England, 1855.

Putting data in space and making conclusions


Seoul Population Density per District (2000) Source: So_Jeong Park, 2008 (Graduation Project TU Delft)


Seoul: Residential Land Value (2006) Source: So_Jeong Park, 2008 (Graduation Project TU Delft)


Seoul: Residents on Social Welfare Programs (1999)


Correlation is not causality Source: http://www.os.amsterdam.nl/pdf/2007_probleemwijken_amsterdam.pdf


Mapping clandestine settlements in Sao Paulo Data source: IBGE, Map: Roberto Rocco


Mapping land value in Sao Paulo Data source: Bolsa de Imoveis 2002, Map: Roberto Rocco


Mapping average income in Sao Paulo Data source: Prefeitura Sao Paulo, Map: Roberto Rocco


Human Development Index United Nations Human Development Forum

The Human Development Index (HDI) is an index used to rank countries by level of development of social indicators. This may show us whether a country is developed, developing, or underdeveloped. It combines three key indicators:

•  Life expectancy at birth • Knowledge and education, measured by the adult literacy

rate (2/3) and the combined primary, secondary, and tertiary gross enrolment ratio (1/3).

• Gross domestic product per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP).


Human Development IndexThe United Nations Human Development Index (HDI) rankings for 2008, Source: UN


HDI in the USA (2010) Source: The American Human Development Project (American Social Sciences Research Council)


HDI in the USA (2010) Source: The American Human Development Project (American Social Sciences Research Council)


Using the same methodology for a city Here, smaller territorial units (districts) are used and the same indicators are measured at a very local level. The social-make up of the city is clearly outlined, though some nuances are not visible. Source: IBGE. Map: Roberto Rocco


Using the same methodology for a city Here, very small units of analysis are used, based on postal code areas. Remember that each postal code corresponds to a very small territorial unit, and sometimes even to one building. This gives us a very precise description of the social make-up at the very local level. Using GIS (Geographical and Information Systems), data (numbers) can be represented on geographic interface (a map)


Racial/ ethnic self identification Chicago (2000) Source: http://www.radicalcartography.net/index.html?chicagodots


Annual household income in Chicago (2000?) Source: http://www.radicalcartography.net/index.html?chicagodots


But why oh why do we need statistics and its graphic representation in urbanism?

• Which country has the highest child mortality in the following pairs?

•  Sri Lanka or Turkey •  Poland or South Korea • Malaysia or Russia •  Pakistan or Vietnam • Thailand or South Africa


Hans Rosling shows the best stats you've ever seen at TED Ideas worth spreading

•  http://www.ted.com/talks/hans_rosling_shows_the_best_stats_you_ve_ever_seen.html


Visit Hans Rosling’s site

• http://www.gapminder.org/

•  And watch the BBC4 documentary: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo


The Randstad This map shows the

percentage of low income households per

municipality. The source is the

Ruimtelijke Plan Bureau RPB, 2004.

Map by R. Rocco


The Randstad This map shows the

percentage of creative jobs in the total employment per municipality. The

source is the Ruimtelijke Plan Bureau

RPB, 2004. Map by R. Rocco


The South Wing This map was extracted from the work “Looping the archipelago” . This work is the graduation work of the EMU European Masters of Urbanism Studio Mobile Strategies (Remon Rooij and Roberto Rocco). This is a conventional satellite view of the regional, but the water has been ‘enhanced’ in white. Some important info is missing, like the scale, the north arrow,etc.


living / working in the southwing

source: Geographical Informa4onal System, Cluster Analysis

The South Wing This GIS analysis was

extracted from the work “Looping the archipelago” . This

work is the graduation work of the EMU

European Masters of Urbanism Studio Mobile

Strategies (Remon Rooij and Roberto Rocco). This map

shows concentration of dwellings versus

concentration of work posts)


services / produc4on in the southwing







shows concentration of services versus

concentration of industrial activity.


social clusters in the southwing







shows concentration of non-western non-native

immigrants versus concentration of

western non-native immigrants.


environmental balance car domina4on 71,6 % car, 14,3% public transport, 12,2% slower means of transport

modal split development 1960‐2000

car based system ... traffic intensity (na4onal and provincial roads)

motorway oriented network

“unequal distribu4on of public transport between main centers

and peripheries” source: ‘Ontwikkelingen in Verkeer en Vervoer 1990 – 2020’, AVV source: The supply, use and quality of randstad holland’s transporta4on networks in compara4ve perspec4ve, Hilbers and Wilmink, 2002




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Thank you


MAPSCROLLhttp://mapscroll.blogspot.com/2009_06_01_archive.htm

Informationisbeautifulhttp://www.informationisbeautiful.net/

FlowingDatahttp://flowingdata.com/

UrbanDataVisualizationLabUniversityofIllinoishttp://www.uic.edu/cuppa/udv/research.html

DesignReviver(forinfographics)http://designreviver.com/inspiration/30‐of‐the‐best‐infographics‐that‐effectively‐

showcase‐data/

50informativeandwelldesigngraphicshttp://www.hongkiat.com/blog/50‐informative‐and‐well‐designed‐infographics/

Please,havealookattheStatistical Literacy Guides oftheBritishgovernmentforusefulguidesinEnglish

http://www.parliament.uk/topics/Statistics‐policyArchive.htm

For more innovative and inventive use of statistics in maps and graphic representation, go to


http://flowingdata.com/2010/11/29/statistics-vs-stories/

For an analysis on the differences between individual stories and statistics go to


Las Vegas from '73 to '92 Source: New York Times Report on Urban Growth


Built area growth in the city of São Paulo, Brazil Source: MEYER, R., GROSTEIN, M. D. & BIDERMAN, C. 2004. Sao Paulo Metropole, Sao Paulo, EDUSP


Built area growth in the city of Sidney, Australia Source: Government of Queensland, Australia.


Questions? Answers?

Please contact me at Roberto Rocco [email protected]

Education

Spatial representation of data in Urban Planning and Design